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Forums :: Blog World :: Theo Fox: Top Prospects: Defensemen
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SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Aug 18 @ 5:53 PM ET
How many Stanley Cup champions since 2010 have not had an elite, clear-cut #1 defenseman?
- mohel


Penguins.......as I wouldnt put LEtang as "elite"
Blues....as I wouldn't put Pieterangelo as "elite"
Capitals.....Carlson for sure isn't "elite"

So that would be 3 teams, and 4 cups.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Aug 18 @ 5:56 PM ET
Kaiser is at worst the 4th best d prospect in the system. His ceiling is higher than Beaudin and Kalynuk for sure. I don't believe Allan will ever sniff the NHL.

I guess you had to put someone at 10 but, imo, Crevier is far more intriguing as a prospect than Allan.

- Elbows15

Yeah, the 10 spot was somewhat of a jump ball. Could have gone either way with Allan or any of Crevier, Del Mastro, or Demin.

Demin was much higher at one point but he's slipped. I know you're not a Lehner fan (neither am I) but it doesn't help that he was in that trade along with Subban in that many fans think Vegas fleeced Chicago on that deal.

Toronto was part of the 3-way so it's not as simple as I rehashed it.

Wonder what Martins Dzierkals is up to now?
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Aug 18 @ 5:57 PM ET
How many weren't drafted by Stanley Cup winners?

The answer is one to each. Chara for Boston and while Carlson is a true #1 D-man, I hesitate to call him elite. He did have a Norris winning season, tho. Maybe I just have a different definition of elite. I think it is earned over multiple seasons. I also bellieve it is possible for a player to have an elite type season without being an elite player.

- Elbows15


I would agree...everyone wants to label a player "elite" after a great season, but the proof is in the pudding with a repeat performance or the drop off being very minimal.

TO me....Keith, Doughty, Chara and Hedman are elite for this question since 2010 and Carlson, Letang and Pieterangelo are good to very good but not "elite"
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Aug 18 @ 6:01 PM ET
Yeah, the 10 spot was somewhat of a jump ball. Could have gone either way with Allan or any of Crevier, Del Mastro, or Demin.

Demin was much higher at one point but he's slipped. I know you're not a Lehner fan (neither am I) but it doesn't help that he was in that trade along with Subban.

- Theo Fox


Theo

Not sure if you saw the list I posted.....but since the Toews/Kane era, the number of 1st round picks (players) that bowman has taken fliers on to plug to holes is remarkable. Same can be said for a bunch that didn't pan out here or didn't hit the minimal level the organization wanted.

So while the Hawks have had a good run at European scouting and signing those type of players, I think it's VERY fair to question what the scouts are looking at on draft night when Bowman makes these picks...and even worse.....revisiting the players they likely LIKED and took a flier on later on down the road which seldom have worked out. Very alarming trend.

Yes, I get that's hard to gauge a player's growth when they are teenagers, but that list.....is.....ugly.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Aug 18 @ 6:01 PM ET
Yeah, the 10 spot was somewhat of a jump ball. Could have gone either way with Allan or any of Crevier, Del Mastro, or Demin.

Demin was much higher at one point but he's slipped. I know you're not a Lehner fan (neither am I) but it doesn't help that he was in that trade along with Subban.

- Theo Fox

Demin has a lost season like many prospects due to COVID. I did like him while watching Mitchell at DU. Maybe like Wise, another transfer, a new situation gets him back on track.

Hell, Del Mastro is probably a better prospect than Allan. Del Mastro was the guy playing crunch time minutes at the end of games at the U18's.

I don't think either are any more than C level prospects.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Aug 18 @ 6:03 PM ET
Penguins.......as I wouldnt put LEtang as "elite"
Blues....as I wouldn't put Pieterangelo as "elite"
Capitals.....Carlson for sure isn't "elite"

So that would be 3 teams, and 4 cups.

- SteveRain

Letang is closer to elite than Jones has ever been in his career.

Either way. Only one of the teams had a true #1 that wasn't drafted by the Cup winning team.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Aug 18 @ 6:04 PM ET
How many weren't drafted by Stanley Cup winners?

The answer is one to each. Chara for Boston and while Carlson is a true #1 D-man, I hesitate to call him elite. He did have a Norris winning season, tho. Maybe I just have a different definition of elite. I think it is earned over multiple seasons. I also bellieve it is possible for a player to have an elite type season without being an elite player.

- Elbows15


Legit point about drafting one. I asked the question because a few posts above suggested having one isn't necessary, that having 6 good 2nd pair types is good enough. I think the evidence suggests a true #1 is the more likely route to the promised land. I'm guessing Stan believes this, too. I'd further guess that he believed his stable of d-men included zero guys who could become one (Theo's rankings suggest he agrees). Yet another supposition is that he doesn't believe he has long enough to find and develop one the draft. So......Jones is available and Stan takes his shot. Whether it'll work is questionable (especially given your point about the rarity of one changing teams), but his likely rationale makes sense to me.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Aug 18 @ 6:07 PM ET
I would agree...everyone wants to label a player "elite" after a great season, but the proof is in the pudding with a repeat performance or the drop off being very minimal.

TO me....Keith, Doughty, Chara and Hedman are elite for this question since 2010 and Carlson, Letang and Pieterangelo are good to very good but not "elite"

- SteveRain


I'm guessing Stan believes none of his prospects pan out to be as good as any of those three.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Aug 18 @ 6:09 PM ET
I'm guessing Stan believes none of his prospects pan out to be as good as any of those three.
- mohel

So he went out traded for and signed one who isn't as good as any of those guys. Bold move. Won't pay off.

rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Aug 18 @ 6:12 PM ET
I would agree...everyone wants to label a player "elite" after a great season, but the proof is in the pudding with a repeat performance or the drop off being very minimal.

TO me....Keith, Doughty, Chara and Hedman are elite for this question since 2010 and Carlson, Letang and Pieterangelo are good to very good but not "elite"

- SteveRain

Four over 10 year's, the math just doesn't work you have to widen your criteria. Your criteria for elite currently is HOF which isn't fair.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Aug 18 @ 6:14 PM ET
So he went and signed one who isn't as good as any of those guys. Bold move. Won't pay off.
- Elbows15


Probably true. Doing nothing certainly wouldn't have paid in the near to mid future.

Of course, maybe Stan believes three guys will reach legit 2nd pair status, and that, along with Jones, four really good 2nd pairing guys can contend for a Cup.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Aug 18 @ 6:18 PM ET
Letang is closer to elite than Jones has ever been in his career.

Either way. Only one of the teams had a true #1 that wasn't drafted by the Cup winning team.

- Elbows15


who said anything about Jones in this conversation? Question was asked about cup winning defensemen and how many teams have "elite" ones.

I could give two craps about Letang vs Jones.

We all know you hate Jones like you hated Lehner. IT's been noted. The flip side to your hatred of the trade, and others who do, is go back and look at all the 1st round picks who have FLOPPED...or been moved before their ELC have expired.....and then look at the same list and see ALL The same ones Bowman has taken a chance on and has whiffed.

Point is, a 1st round picks is NO guarantee of being corner stone for building a franchise. In fact, the more I look into that list since 2007, the more I am willing to say if you aren't drafting in the top 5-7, you are likely better off going the European UFA route as those guys seem to be more of a "sure thing"....yes, I know it's hard to correctly forecast where a 18 yr old kid may end up, but that's exactly why I still don't HATE trading both of those 1sts for Jones......the flip side to the European type player is you don't get them long as their salary demands are border line outrageous once they have a decent NHL season.

So again...if people want to be all over Stan, it's fair to question his and his hockey's ops misses not only on their 1st round picks the last decade, but the hard on for taking chances on guys who are busting out earlier on other teams who also were 1st round picks.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Aug 18 @ 6:19 PM ET
Four over 10 year's, the math just doesn't work you have to widen your criteria. Your criteria for elite currently is HOF which isn't fair.
- rpeters01

Wait..What?
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Aug 18 @ 6:22 PM ET
who said anything about Jones in this conversation? Question was asked about cup winning defensemen and how many teams have "elite" ones.

I could give two craps about Letang vs Jones.

We all know you hate Jones like you hated Lehner. IT's been noted. The flip side to your hatred of the trade, and others who do, is go back and look at all the 1st round picks who have FLOPPED...or been moved before their ELC have expired.....and then look at the same list and see ALL The same ones Bowman has taken a chance on and has whiffed.

Point is, a 1st round picks is NO guarantee of being corner stone for building a franchise. In fact, the more I look into that list since 2007, the more I am willing to say if you aren't drafting in the top 5-7, you are likely better off going the European UFA route as those guys seem to be more of a "sure thing"....yes, I know it's hard to correctly forecast where a 18 yr old kid may end up, but that's exactly why I still don't HATE trading both of those 1sts for Jones......the flip side to the European type player is you don't get them long as their salary demands are border line outrageous once they have a decent NHL season.

So again...if people want to be all over Stan, it's fair to question his and his hockey's ops misses not only on their 1st round picks the last decade, but the hard on for taking chances on guys who are busting out earlier on other teams who also were 1st round picks.

- SteveRain


You keep saying this about Bowman's 1st round choices and you are wrong every time.

I hate the trade because Jones as rental wasn't worth those assets. He will NEVER be worth the contract. Bowman bid against himself.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Aug 18 @ 6:23 PM ET
Four over 10 year's, the math just doesn't work you have to widen your criteria. Your criteria for elite currently is HOF which isn't fair.
- rpeters01


I didn't set the criteria I just answered the question and offered my opinion.

I think to, I believe it was Ogi's post, that if you had 3 pairs of Hammers/Oduyas circa 2013....you could contend and win a cup. You may not win multiple unless you have 2 premier scoring Fs like Pittsburgh did in Malkin and Crosby...but Washington and STL both won....and I still don't put Carlson OR Pieterangelo in the elite group.

Elite to me is the top 1% of players in the league.....maybe 4 deep....likely 3 deep at each position. Larger group of VERY Good players.
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Aug 18 @ 6:24 PM ET
Wait..What?
- Elbows15

There's at least 200 defense men playing in the NHL at anytime and he's saying 4 over 10 year's are elite. That math doesn't work for me there has to be more the criteria is too hard.
Ogilthorpe2
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 37,000 FT
Joined: 07.09.2009

Aug 18 @ 6:28 PM ET
How many Stanley Cup champions since 2010 have not had an elite, clear-cut #1 defenseman?
- mohel

3
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Aug 18 @ 6:28 PM ET
I didn't set the criteria I just answered the question and offered my opinion.

I think to, I believe it was Ogi's post, that if you had 3 pairs of Hammers/Oduyas circa 2013....you could contend and win a cup. You may not win multiple unless you have 2 premier scoring Fs like Pittsburgh did in Malkin and Crosby...but Washington and STL both won....and I still don't put Carlson OR Pieterangelo in the elite group.

Elite to me is the top 1% of players in the league.....maybe 4 deep....likely 3 deep at each position. Larger group of VERY Good players.

- SteveRain

I wouldn't split hairs but 5% is more realistic. That would give you approximately 10 in the entire league one player for less than half the teams.

To add, most on this board would want to pay those unicorn's $6M @ 4 years.
Ogilthorpe2
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 37,000 FT
Joined: 07.09.2009

Aug 18 @ 6:29 PM ET
Penguins.......as I wouldnt put LEtang as "elite"
Blues....as I wouldn't put Pieterangelo as "elite"
Capitals.....Carlson for sure isn't "elite"

So that would be 3 teams, and 4 cups.

- SteveRain

Agreed.

Same math as me
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Aug 18 @ 6:30 PM ET
3
- Ogilthorpe2

Name them. lol
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Aug 18 @ 6:31 PM ET
Agreed.

Same math as me

- Ogilthorpe2

The elite is the part that confuses the issue. You can definitely win without an elite#1 but your chances without a true #1 is remote.

It does get helped immensely when you have 2 Top 5 players playing at their elite levels plus a Top 10 winger in his prime. And a goalie playing out of his mind.

Its possible but aside from an outlier here and there, not probable.
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Aug 18 @ 6:36 PM ET
The elite is the part that confuses the issue. You can definitely win without an elite#1 but your chances without a true #1 is remote.

It does get helped immensely when you have 2 Top 5 players playing at their elite levels plus a Top 10 winger in his prime. And a goalie playing out of his mind.

Its possible but aside from an outlier here and there, not probable.

- Elbows15

Elite vs True?
IGU!
Angotti
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2019

Aug 18 @ 6:38 PM ET
How many elite defensemen in the last ten years have not won a cup?
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Aug 18 @ 6:44 PM ET
You keep saying this about Bowman's 1st round choices and you are wrong every time.

I hate the trade because Jones as rental wasn't worth those assets. He will NEVER be worth the contract. Bowman bid against himself.

- Elbows15


2006 1st round picks to current

Hawks: Toews, Kane, Beach, Olsen, hayes, McNeil, Danault, Teuvo, hartman, Schmaltz, Jokiharju, Boqvist, Beaudin, Dach, Reichel, Allen

Out of those....6 are in the organization out of 16....yes Danault and Teuvo were moved for cup winning aspirations.....no issues there. Rest? hayes wanted PT and never signed.....others were moved because they, Hawks, felt they COULD do BETTER either with returning asset or internally or from Europe.

2006 1st round picks to current that were made by OTHERS that Hawks acquired

DeHaan, Leddy, Murphy, Koekkoek, Maata, Subban, Jones, Zadorov, Quenneville, Strome, Nylander, Borgstrom, Dano....

Murphy is the ONLY one that has panned out...so far....Jones--that horse has been beaten to death.......rest......Borgstrom I'll give an incomplete to as he hasn't played a game yet here.....but out of the rest who are the building blocks?

That's my point. Out of the 29, 1st round picks either drafted directly by the Hawks OR acquired later via trade or UFA signing....likely end up with less than half that become franchise building blocks as of today. Case is still out on Dach, Borgstrom, Beaudin, Reichel, and Allen....but there are a LOT of misses here.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Aug 18 @ 6:45 PM ET
How many elite defensemen in the last ten years have not won a cup?
- Angotti


Oliver Ekman-Larsson, says Tanner.

And, of course, Rundblad.
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