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Forums :: Blog World :: Kevin Francis: Source - Sens offer Brady Tkachuk 6yrs/42 million
Author Message
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Aug 23 @ 7:55 PM ET
Got nothing to do with contracts signing I just don’t agree with whoever came out and said *Tkachuk won’t sign until owner makes commitment to winning *
He’s not a Crosby or McDavid he’ll never be an 80-100pt player so I just said that part is bullpoop lol
Specially coming off entry level contract lol that’s all

- sens4life1971

You're acting like Crosby/McDavid are the only players with the right to negotiate term as part of their first RFA contract. Tkachuk absolutely doesn't have to accept a 6yr deal that robs him of UFA years... no player has to accept that. Plus, you're talking about a team owned by Eugene Melnyk, who's literally become a league-wide punch line for billionaire cheapness. Is it really so hard to believe that an American-born player with NHL pedigree might prefer to keep his contract options open before signing long-term during a salary cap freeze, with a team that's $10M under the Cap Floor, and at least 1-2 years away from serious contention? It's hardly an outlandish notion.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Aug 23 @ 8:17 PM ET
Right, but Tkachuk doesn't have to accept a 6yr deal that robs him of UFA years. No player has to accept that, just to sign a RFA contract.
- khawk


Player salaries are relative to others. First they need be relative the salaries of other similar players across the league. And, they need to fit within a salary hierarchy for the players own team. Is Tkachuk the highest paid Senator for the next 5 years?

Probably not.
sens4life1971
Ottawa Senators
Location: smiths falls, ON
Joined: 02.16.2014

Aug 23 @ 9:37 PM ET
You're acting like Crosby/McDavid are the only players with the right to negotiate term as part of their first RFA contract. Tkachuk absolutely doesn't have to accept a 6yr deal that robs him of UFA years... no player has to accept that. Plus, you're talking about a team owned by Eugene Melnyk, who's literally become a league-wide punch line for billionaire cheapness. Is it really so hard to believe that an American-born player with NHL pedigree might prefer to keep his contract options open before signing long-term during a salary cap freeze, with a team that's $10M under the Cap Floor, and at least 1-2 years away from serious contention? It's hardly an outlandish notion.
- khawk


So you believe Tkachuk came out and said *I’ll only sign if owner makes a commitment to winning*
That’s a bold statement
I’m not arguing about the contract Negotiations lol it’s the statement he was supposed to have said 🙄
But yes once again I agree he doesn’t have to accept any offer he doesn’t want lol 👍
Woody88
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.23.2021

Aug 23 @ 9:41 PM ET
Uhhh you mean the one where Garrioch shut down any notion of there being talks between Ottawa and SJ on Hertl?
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Aug 23 @ 10:56 PM ET
Personally, I think they're going to have trouble negotiating a long-term RFA contract right now with Brady. I typically don't like hearing these kinds of 'leaked' offer rumors, because it suggests the team feels the need to put something out there to prove they're "making an effort". Whether it's fair or not, the $7Mx3yr bridge deal his brother signed is going to be considered in this process... which means they're asking Brady to sign for twice as long for the same AAV, and just throw in his last RFA year and two most valuable UFA years. Let alone the very predictable issues that will come around signing bonus/annual salary structure.

Details aside, it would be wise to consider the comments Tkachuk made that TSN reported, where he expressed a strong willingness to sign long-term when ownership shows the same commitment to winning. Now perhaps someone will explain how being nearly $10M under the cap floor, finishing in the bottom-10 of the league, having no #1C and barely half a top-4 defence, and trading away a $5M winger as their big summer roster move demonstrates that kind of commitment.

- khawk


Your comment about the one he made to TSN is very true and there has been alot to it over the last week when it comes to management. A few things I am hoping to post in the next day or two once I have more info and the green light to go ahead with it too. I think you will be pleasantly surprised!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Aug 23 @ 10:57 PM ET
If he accepts this deal, he will be traded in year 6 before he hits UFA, expect batherson to also get a 6 year offer from OTT and Norris a 5 or 6 year deal next year.

Essentially OTT has 5 years to win a cup before their next rebuild.

- Mithos


There is no doubt that the route management is taking is very much what you are talking about. The 5 year window starts now!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Aug 23 @ 10:58 PM ET
Good offer in a negotiation process. But not enough. Probably going to be closer to a $59.5m package ($8.5x7).

The numbers tell you that we are already into a new era for NHL contracts. Teams will no longer be giving 29 year old plus players huge contracts. More important, in order to make the numbers work you are going to have to move good players out before their contract expire.

There will always be exceptions. But, we will all come to accept that big dollar long term deals for "used to be great" players is over. Nobody wants to try and compete counting on aging stars like Karlsson, Tavares, Weber, Duchene, Pietrangelo and a whole bunch of other guys. Retirement deals based on past performance are insane.

- spatso


All great examples! You won't see many long term deals handed out to players approaching 30, naturally there will always be a few exceptions.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Aug 23 @ 11:18 PM ET
Good TSN article by Travis Yost.

He essentially sets out the case that this year might be the "last dance" for the Leafs in terms of their competitive window. I have long believed the Leafs moved too soon. They raised fan expectations and put excessive cap pressure on the team as a whole without ever having won a playoff round.

It is a lesson hopeful breakthrough teams like the Sens need to study. Essentially the Leafs are now a top heavy team capable of winning games...but their lack of depth makes it very hard to envision them winning a playoff round. Each of the last three years the bottom half of the Leaf roster has become weaker.

https://www.tsn.ca/toront...-leafs-playoffs-1.1684919

- spatso


He has posted some good stuff as always. One of his recent articles,I will be touching on in the next day or two as he was onto something awhile ago!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Aug 23 @ 11:19 PM ET
The suggestion is just that Tkachuk wouldn't necessarily sign a major long-term deal that took away his most valuable UFA years, not that he wouldn't sign a shorter-term deal. I'm not sure why you're so convinced that he'll just blindly sign a long-term deal because the team wants him to... but the majority of players don't sign for 6yrs or longer as RFA, let alone players that haven't proven their full upside yet.
- khawk


I think we will definitely see more 5 and 6 year deals for guys coming out of their ELC. This still allows them to capitalize on free agency while getting paid nicely coming out of their ELC.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Aug 24 @ 12:38 AM ET
You're acting like Crosby/McDavid are the only players with the right to negotiate term as part of their first RFA contract. Tkachuk absolutely doesn't have to accept a 6yr deal that robs him of UFA years... no player has to accept that. Plus, you're talking about a team owned by Eugene Melnyk, who's literally become a league-wide punch line for billionaire cheapness. Is it really so hard to believe that an American-born player with NHL pedigree might prefer to keep his contract options open before signing long-term during a salary cap freeze, with a team that's $10M under the Cap Floor, and at least 1-2 years away from serious contention? It's hardly an outlandish notion.
- khawk


Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Aug 24 @ 12:38 AM ET
Player salaries are relative to others. First they need be relative the salaries of other similar players across the league. And, they need to fit within a salary hierarchy for the players own team. Is Tkachuk the highest paid Senator for the next 5 years?

Probably not.

- spatso


No that will go to Chabot unless the Sens trade for a certain number center.
Panzer_IVA
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 01.02.2018

Aug 24 @ 7:41 AM ET
I typically don't like hearing these kinds of 'leaked' offer rumors, because it suggests the team feels the need to put something out there to prove they're "making an effort".
- khawk

This - when I saw the headline of this article I thought we had finally signed him. If this is the latest offer, then I wonder how low the very first one was.

I also heard that the 'Tkachuk clan' was hard to negotiate with. TBH they have every right to be. Let's just hope we can actually get him at a price & term that's suitable for all. I wouldn't want to let him go because we couldn't come to term, but I don't want OTT to overpay either.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Aug 24 @ 7:53 AM ET
No that will go to Chabot unless the Sens trade for a certain number center.
- Kevin Francis


I think Sens will allow Brady to poke his nose a little out front of Chabot on their internal salary scale. If the Sens trade for a $10m player, they would have about $32m. invested in their top 4. Far less efficient than Boston with their older players.

But the Sens would be infinitely better than the ugly situation that the blue team is stuck with. Vancouver cap also appears pretty ugly. Edmonton has an awkward cap situation but they have truly elite players. Montreal stumbles along and appears to be making it work as they transition over to become a much younger team. Winnipeg and Calgary are hard to read. Calgary seems to be trying to figure it out as they go along. Winnipeg acts they like they are just one player away from winning it all and keep trying to find that one special add that will get them over the top. I believe Winnipeg is close and, maybe, this is the year they get it done.

In the current cap situation you always need one finger on the panic button. You will not be able to go out and buy the assets that get you over the top. A 5 year window makes sense. If you can't get it done in the 5 year window sell off the assets that are near the top of their value and buy future winners.
spazzbot
Location: Maple Zombie
Joined: 02.14.2013

Aug 24 @ 9:34 AM ET
Good TSN article by Travis Yost.

He essentially sets out the case that this year might be the "last dance" for the Leafs in terms of their competitive window. I have long believed the Leafs moved too soon. They raised fan expectations and put excessive cap pressure on the team as a whole without ever having won a playoff round.

It is a lesson hopeful breakthrough teams like the Sens need to study. Essentially the Leafs are now a top heavy team capable of winning games...but their lack of depth makes it very hard to envision them winning a playoff round. Each of the last three years the bottom half of the Leaf roster has become weaker.

https://www.tsn.ca/toront...-leafs-playoffs-1.1684919

- spatso

Its hard to compare the leafs to sens. They have a bottomless well of money and support. With the right moves they can be dangerous for another 7 years. But Dubais/ shanahan window is closing this year if they dont go to least semi final
spazzbot
Location: Maple Zombie
Joined: 02.14.2013

Aug 24 @ 9:41 AM ET
My source , ( aka hippocampus part of brain ...full disclosure) tells me someone here will be correct or very close to being correct. As to the outcome of the tkachuk contract.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Aug 24 @ 10:23 AM ET
I also heard that the 'Tkachuk clan' was hard to negotiate with. TBH they have every right to be. Let's just hope we can actually get him at a price & term that's suitable for all. I wouldn't want to let him go because we couldn't come to term, but I don't want OTT to overpay either.
- Panzer_IVA

They are hard negotiators, and there's a pretty clear evidence base to support that, which makes the rumored comments about the negotiations hardly a surprise. The real problem is that it's the Senators that want him to sign for 6yrs and make him the captain... but it's pretty clear that as much as Tkachuk appears to like the young group in Ottawa, he's also a realist. He knows he hasn't shown his full offensive potential on the ice yet, and they're asking him to give up both his 2nd RFA status plus 2 years of UFA years, which are the most lucrative negotiating opportunities of his career. Plus, some people might crap all over Eichel for wanting to play on a competitive team and call it a character flaw, but don't for a second think Brady won't leave after his RFA status (or sooner) if the Senators don't cut the $hit, and start putting a more competitive product on the ice.

As I said, don't be surprised if the Tkachuk side dig their heels in on a 2-3 bridge deal, regardless of Melnyk's feelings about having a team captain not being signed to a long-term deal. If Melnyk is really so concerned, he can start to work with Dorion on moving the team away from the $60M cap floor, and bringing in some players to legitimately make the team better and prove that the rebuild is over.
BluemanGuruu
St Louis Blues
Location: trustinjarmo knows nothing, MO
Joined: 06.28.2007

Aug 24 @ 11:02 AM ET
If Brady follows his brother and is smart he does three or four years at 7 or 8 with the deal structured so that the qualifying offer has to be $9million. This makes you as close to a free agent before free agency as possible. It also keeps from being stuck in a place that might not work out. The Sens are looking good now but the owner has a history of changing things or not having money. It'd be hard to to sign long term there. If your best seasons might be coming to you want to bet on yourself, especially when the cap should be going up by then?

granpa
Joined: 07.03.2015

Aug 24 @ 11:02 AM ET
I would bridge Tkachuk and Batherson and make C. Brown my captain. I don't believe in teams committing big money and term to players based on potential. This is a business and players are assets and they can be moved or retained. Successful teams must establish a sort of salary structure among players. The bridge is part of the process.
spazzbot
Location: Maple Zombie
Joined: 02.14.2013

Aug 24 @ 11:20 AM ET
I would bridge Tkachuk and Batherson and make C. Brown my captain. I don't believe in teams committing big money and term to players based on potential. This is a business and players are assets and they can be moved or retained. Successful teams must establish a sort of salary structure among players. The bridge is part of the process.
- granpa


Yeah x2 . I agree especially if done for the betterment of the team.
On the other hand people like home heros and get attatched to the names it breaks hearts when fan faves get moved. In small markets thats an important factor it can do damage to fan base loyalty
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Aug 24 @ 12:45 PM ET
I would bridge Tkachuk and Batherson and make C. Brown my captain. I don't believe in teams committing big money and term to players based on potential. This is a business and players are assets and they can be moved or retained. Successful teams must establish a sort of salary structure among players. The bridge is part of the process.
- granpa

Agreed, good teams sign players not out of fear of losing them, but with strategic purpose in order to maintain a competitive and successful environment. I really think Tampa Bay is modelling the right approach - all of Kucherov, Point, Hedman, and Vasilevsky were on bridge contracts before signing their long-term deals. Each then signed for $7.9M-$9.5M, after more than proving their value with both individual and team awards. TB also specifically uses 34 as the maximum age they'll typically extend a contract to. Case in point, if you look at their 5 biggest $$$ contracts in terms of player age and years remaining:

$9.5M Point - Age 25, 9yrs Left
$9.5M Vasilevsky - Age 27, 7yrs Left
$9.5M Kucherov - Age 28, 6yrs Left
$8.5M Stamkos - Age 31, 3yrs Left
$7.9M Hedman - Age 30, 4yrs Left

You can also see this playing out with the 3yr x$4.8M AAV bridge deals they provided to Cirelli (Age 24) and Sergachev (Age 23) as part of the next generation of core players. This allows you to layer your contracts effectively, and develop a clear succession plan at key positions (i.e. laying the foundation for long-term competitiveness).
jaz258
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa
Joined: 02.04.2008

Aug 24 @ 12:46 PM ET
This will end the same way Stone’s contract negotiation did. Tkachuk has to have been very up front about wanting only a bridge deal and the comments from Melnyk about not having a Captain on a bridge deal means this is headed in the wrong direction. I hope I’m wrong but you know this team.
jaz258
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa
Joined: 02.04.2008

Aug 24 @ 12:47 PM ET
This will end the same way Stone’s contract negotiation did. Tkachuk has to have been very up front about wanting only a bridge deal and the comments from Melnyk about not having a Captain on a bridge deal means this is headed in the wrong direction. I hope I’m wrong but you know this team.
jaz258
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa
Joined: 02.04.2008

Aug 24 @ 12:47 PM ET
This will end the same way Stone’s contract negotiation did. Tkachuk has to have been very up front about wanting only a bridge deal and the comments from Melnyk about not having a Captain on a bridge deal means this is headed in the wrong direction. I hope I’m wrong but you know this team.
jaz258
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa
Joined: 02.04.2008

Aug 24 @ 12:47 PM ET
This will end the same way Stone’s contract negotiation did. Tkachuk has to have been very up front about wanting only a bridge deal and the comments from Melnyk about not having a Captain on a bridge deal means this is headed in the wrong direction. I hope I’m wrong but you know this team.
jaz258
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa
Joined: 02.04.2008

Aug 24 @ 12:47 PM ET
This will end the same way Stone’s contract negotiation did. Tkachuk has to have been very up front about wanting only a bridge deal and the comments from Melnyk about not having a Captain on a bridge deal means this is headed in the wrong direction. I hope I’m wrong but you know this team.
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