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Forums :: Blog World :: Kevin Francis: Logan Brown trade imminent? Tkachuk contract talks ongoing!
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Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Sep 8 @ 11:02 AM ET
The Dorion signing brings 4 more years of mediocrity which fits exactly into Melnyck's plans. They'll be a hard to play against bubble team for 3-4 more years then a new rebuild will begin. First they'll blow it up and accumulate a lot of draft choices, then they'll launch the same marketing plan they did at the end of the 2018-19 season. In 4 years from now we'll be talking about the same things all over again. "GROUNDHOG DAY".
- granpa

Is it four more years of Melnyk calling the shots and Dorion pretending he's a GM?
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Sep 8 @ 11:30 AM ET
Is it four more years of Melnyk calling the shots and Dorion pretending he's a GM?
- Whatisavailable


It is a good question. Sens seem to be doing everything right. I really like what they are doing and the way they are going about getting it done.

I have grave doubts that Melnyk has the final say.

The hiring of McGuire makes no sense to me, it is entirely out of character for Melnyk. It is totally inconsistent with everything else that is happening.

I wonder if McGuire is another set of eyes representing a third party interest looking towards the long term success of the team.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Sep 8 @ 12:24 PM ET
Spezza was a turnover machine, and not captain material. But a great damn player.
- Octavarium

Spezza was a very good point producer... but never a great player. Alfredsson was twice the player he was, and it always showed when it mattered most. Not to mention that other NHL teams are typically very interested when truly great players are available via trade. This was really NOT the case with a 31yo Spezza, and why Chiasson, Paul, and a 2nd was the best offer on the table. Lament him being 'run out of town' all you like, but it was a blessing that they weren't stuck paying him $7.5M/yr for the 26pts/27pts seasons he put up his last 2 years in Dallas. Or even worse, that they hadn't felt obliged to sign their "captain" to an even longer-term contract than the Stars did.
Rsh
Season Ticket Holder
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 02.23.2021

Sep 8 @ 2:58 PM ET
Hey Kevin why do sabres bloggers get pissed why you post on their site? You tell the truth and and stripes 77 and others jump on you 77 is king on that site!! You always have interesting in sight on things!! Thanks for you input!! And they accuse you of 😈!!
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Sep 8 @ 3:03 PM ET
As for Logan Brown, if you look back you can see that his progression was stunted right out of the gate. In his Draft+1 year, he actually regressed in terms of scoring pace, going from 1.25PPG down to 1.14PPG. Compare that with someone like Ridly Greig, who has already surpassed Brown's highest CHL scoring rate (1.52PPG vs. 1.50PPG), and did it in his Draft+1 year (age 18/19), as opposed to Brown who did it in his Draft+2 year (age 19/20). Even when Brown finally went to the WJC as a 19yo, he not only got injured, but was also outscored by an 18yo Josh Norris, who wasn't even cast in a scoring line role.

His real 'window' was really during the 2019/20 season after a couple years of good AHL production, but there were guys like Anisimov ahead of him in the lineup, and then Josh Norris basically took over as the top C prospect. But waiting until after the end of his ELC to move on and try to trade him is the real issue... it's just historically past the point where you're going to get good value in return.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Sep 8 @ 3:38 PM ET
Good news... apparently, "the rebuild is done".
https://www.thescore.com/...o-win-the-rebuild-is-done

Key questions remaining...
- will any C upgrade actually happen?
- if Tkachuk signs a bridge deal, will they make Chabot captain?
- how competitive can they really be with a team payroll in the $65M range?
spazzbot
Location: Maple Zombie
Joined: 02.14.2013

Sep 8 @ 5:00 PM ET
I think " the rebuild is done " means the worst part , ie: the painfull part of tearing down is over and an excellent core is assembled. Does not mean there are no longer any moving parts. Every team is always a work in motion.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Sep 8 @ 5:12 PM ET
Fulltime work and family commitments, plus just life in general has been insane for me the last 4-5 days. Apologies to all the readers for not being around, but I will get something up by tomorrow night as things should start to quiet down a bit and I get back to writing more often, like usual. Thanks to all of you for keeping the discussion going!!! Appreciated.
Crosside
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.14.2019

Sep 8 @ 5:49 PM ET
Fulltime work and family commitments, plus just life in general has been insane for me the last 4-5 days. Apologies to all the readers for not being around, but I will get something up by tomorrow night as things should start to quiet down a bit and I get back to writing more often, like usual. Thanks to all of you for keeping the discussion going!!! Appreciated.
- Kevin Francis

Glad you’re back, I was worried something happened to you or your family
PrinceLH
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Belleville, ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Sep 8 @ 8:06 PM ET
As a pissed Leafs fan, I'm looking forward to seeing how the Sens progress. Being in Belleville, I can go see their farm team when they play. I'm impressed with their drafting and development. Pierre Maguire should make them better. I can see them challenging for 5th in a tough division. They may actually move past the Habs this year. The Habs were a one and done last season. The Sens have a foundation.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Sep 9 @ 6:20 AM ET
As a pissed Leafs fan, I'm looking forward to seeing how the Sens progress. Being in Belleville, I can go see their farm team when they play. I'm impressed with their drafting and development. Pierre Maguire should make them better. I can see them challenging for 5th in a tough division. They may actually move past the Habs this year. The Habs were a one and done last season. The Sens have a foundation.
- PrinceLH


Making the playoffs is an elusive measure. You can bring in some vets and character to push the team into the hunt for a playoff run. But, this is not consistent with a team wanting to become a serious contender. The real goal has to be allowing the team to grow and experience success with the kids who will ultimately make you a contender.

My singular goal for the Sens this year is that the become a tough out every night which should enable them to remain close at the trade deadline.
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Sep 9 @ 3:17 PM ET
Is 8 years @8.25m too much for Brady?

He is about a 25-27g ----- 53-58p player
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Sep 9 @ 3:54 PM ET
Is 8 years @8.25m too much for Brady?
He is about a 25-27g ----- 53-58p player

- AlfieisKing

I'm not sure why people aren't paying more attention to Tkachuk's comments of being interested in a long-term deal ONLY if the same competitive commitment is made by ownership. That would be the same ownership that is currently $3.2M below the salary floor, and $1M below any other team in the NHL. It's not just about $$$, Tkachuk can get his $$$ now or later. It's about giving up UFA rights, and ensuring his prime years are played in a competitive environment. And without question, this is a team heading into training camp with major roster holes, with the most unspent cap space in the league, coming off 4 straight years of bottom-dwelling.

This is why his agents said no legitimate offer had been received, despite rumors of a $7M x 6yrs offer... because anything in the 6yr-8yr range is just ignoring the reality that Tkachuk doesn't want to give up his prime UFA years at this point.

Expect something like $5M x 2yrs or $6M x 3yrs.
sjfpp
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 05.14.2011

Sep 9 @ 4:07 PM ET
The Pens could use a center for the start of the season and in the future. Maybe a change of scenery could help Brown. Pettersson and a pick?
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Sep 9 @ 5:19 PM ET
The Pens could use a center for the start of the season and in the future. Maybe a change of scenery could help Brown. Pettersson and a pick?
- sjfpp

Well, there's absolutely 0 chance they would take on $4M x4yrs for another LHD, and they'd certainly rather one decent return asset than two mediocre ones. Nathan Legare would be an interesting option, given the relative lack of prospect depth at RW... not sure what else they'd really want, unless they went after yet another G from the Pens' system (i.e. Blomqvist or Lindberg).
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Sep 9 @ 7:02 PM ET
I'm not sure why people aren't paying more attention to Tkachuk's comments of being interested in a long-term deal ONLY if the same competitive commitment is made by ownership. That would be the same ownership that is currently $3.2M below the salary floor, and $1M below any other team in the NHL. It's not just about $$$, Tkachuk can get his $$$ now or later. It's about giving up UFA rights, and ensuring his prime years are played in a competitive environment. And without question, this is a team heading into training camp with major roster holes, with the most unspent cap space in the league, coming off 4 straight years of bottom-dwelling.

This is why his agents said no legitimate offer had been received, despite rumors of a $7M x 6yrs offer... because anything in the 6yr-8yr range is just ignoring the reality that Tkachuk doesn't want to give up his prime UFA years at this point.

Expect something like $5M x 2yrs or $6M x 3yrs.

- khawk


Way too early in the Sens rebuild for them to sell their soul on a single negotiation. Tkachuk is good player. But he is also an extremely valuable, negotiable asset. It does not really matter at this time if he signs for 2 years, 3 years or 8 years.

If negotiations are problematic and this is going to be a long term dance repeated multiple times, better to move him at the point you can recover maximum value. Keep it real simple. He is worth in the range of $8m for 8 years. But, perhaps he wants the short term deal. I actually prefer the short term deal. But, if on the next negotiation term continues to be problematic, you move the asset.


AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Sep 9 @ 10:45 PM ET
To Boston: Logan Brown
To Ottawa: Zach Senyshyn

Deal or no deal?
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Sep 9 @ 11:41 PM ET
To Boston: Logan Brown
To Ottawa: Zach Senyshyn

Deal or no deal?

- AlfieisKing

Absolutely not... Brown has at least been quite productive in the AHL. Senyshyn is older, less accomplished, and has an even more contentious draft history than Brown. If they deal with the Bruins, I'd package up Brown with another prospect/pick, and target DeBrusk.
sjfpp
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 05.14.2011

Sep 10 @ 9:56 AM ET
Absolutely not... Brown has at least been quite productive in the AHL. Senyshyn is older, less accomplished, and has an even more contentious draft history than Brown. If they deal with the Bruins, I'd package up Brown with another prospect/pick, and target DeBrusk.
- khawk

I'm certain Boston " would rather have one decent return asset instead of two mediocre ones."
SensFan25
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 08.24.2006

Sep 10 @ 9:59 AM ET
Is 8 years @8.25m too much for Brady?

He is about a 25-27g ----- 53-58p player

- AlfieisKing

I think that 8 x $8.25 would be a fair deal for both sides given the Svechnikov comparison of similar production but more intangibles for Tkachuk. While 52 points does not equate to an $8M salary, the fact is that Tkachuk achieved those totals at age 21 and the expectation is that he will progress towards being a 70+ point player.

Revenues/salaries are compressed right now due to the COVID related disruptions. In 3-4 years, one can expect these issues to disappear. With significantly higher US TV revenues, the cap should easily go to $90M to $100M range. $8.25M AAV will look like a very good contract at that point in time.

Octavarium
New York Islanders
Joined: 01.03.2007

Sep 10 @ 11:45 AM ET
To Boston: Logan Brown
To Ottawa: Zach Senyshyn

Deal or no deal?

- AlfieisKing




My son who is a huge Bruins fan wouldn't do that deal from their angle either. HOWEVER he's ready to give DeBrusk away for a drink machine.
DeBrusk for L.Brown?
granpa
Joined: 07.03.2015

Sep 10 @ 12:25 PM ET
I think that 8 x $8.25 would be a fair deal for both sides given the Svechnikov comparison of similar production but more intangibles for Tkachuk. While 52 points does not equate to an $8M salary, the fact is that Tkachuk achieved those totals at age 21 and the expectation is that he will progress towards being a 70+ point player.

Revenues/salaries are compressed right now due to the COVID related disruptions. In 3-4 years, one can expect these issues to disappear. With significantly higher US TV revenues, the cap should easily go to $90M to $100M range. $8.25M AAV will look like a very good contract at that point in time.

- SensFan25


I don't doubt the high offensive ceiling potential of players like Tkachuk, Batherson, Stutzle, Chabot etc. but I don't think they'll ever get there in Ottawa. I believe that the coaching philosophy and offensive system will hold them back.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Sep 10 @ 12:51 PM ET
I'm certain Boston " would rather have one decent return asset instead of two mediocre ones."
- sjfpp

Sorry, was that in reference to my response to your utterly lame attempt to pass off a third-pairing D-man making $4.0M x4yrs as some kind of remotely acceptable trade asset? Ditching Pettersson's contract alone should cost you a 1st, before you even start talking about adding Logan Brown in the deal... not to mention that Ottawa already has 8 NHL d-men under contract for the coming year, plus several very good D-prospects who are quickly moving up the ranks. But thanks for stopping by with your 'this only makes any kind of remote sense for my team, but would you do it anyway' trade offer.

Here's the difference - in the real world, DeBrusk has being actively shopped by the Bruins for nearly a year now. They also just lost Krejci, have aging forward talent, a limited prospect pool, and major cap constraints. Meanwhile, Ottawa just traded Dadonov, and have a 2nd/3rd line winger roster spot available. So there are tangible reasons for both Ottawa and Boston to making a deal involving these players, and why this might be the kind of direction they both want to go in. Now maybe the Bruins' asking price is still just too high, but Logan Brown and a 2nd round pick + $3.7M of cap space would hardly be the worst kind of return they could get for DeBrusk.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Sep 10 @ 12:59 PM ET
My son who is a huge Bruins fan wouldn't do that deal from their angle either. HOWEVER he's ready to give DeBrusk away for a drink machine.
DeBrusk for L.Brown?

- Octavarium

That's exactly the idea I was suggesting earlier. Despite being a LH shot who's typically listed as a LW, Debrusk is apparently capable of playing both LW/RW pretty effectively, and certainly looks like someone who would fit the Dorion/Smith bill even if he was never more than a 3rd line winger. Boston could be reluctant to trade him within the division, but the Reilly trade last year may have laid some positive trade foundation. Maybe add a draft pick sweetener, and both teams can move on from those player situations before training camp.
sjfpp
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 05.14.2011

Sep 10 @ 1:55 PM ET
Sorry, was that in reference to my response to your utterly lame attempt to pass off a third-pairing D-man making $4.0M x4yrs as some kind of remotely acceptable trade asset? Ditching Pettersson's contract alone should cost you a 1st, before you even start talking about adding Logan Brown in the deal... not to mention that Ottawa already has 8 NHL d-men under contract for the coming year, plus several very good D-prospects who are quickly moving up the ranks. But thanks for stopping by with your 'this only makes any kind of remote sense for my team, but would you do it anyway' trade offer.

Here's the difference - in the real world, DeBrusk has being actively shopped by the Bruins for nearly a year now. They also just lost Krejci, have aging forward talent, a limited prospect pool, and major cap constraints. Meanwhile, Ottawa just traded Dadonov, and have a 2nd/3rd line winger roster spot available. So there are tangible reasons for both Ottawa and Boston to making a deal involving these players, and why this might be the kind of direction they both want to go in. Now maybe the Bruins' asking price is still just too high, but Logan Brown and a 2nd round pick + $3.7M of cap space would hardly be the worst kind of return they could get for DeBrusk.

- khawk

I was not aware they brought in Del Zotto and Holden. I dont know how you could call my proposal lame when you yourself stated in a previous post of Brown "It's just historically past the point of getting good value in return." Since you don't want Pettersson and his contract, then Brown for a 3rd round pick it is!
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