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Forums :: Blog World :: Jan Levine: With Dvorak in Montreal, could Hertl be the Rangers' target if no Eichel?
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rangerdanger94
New York Rangers
Location: NY
Joined: 05.23.2010

Sep 7 @ 8:49 AM ET
Zib-Strome-Dvorak would have been a solid upgrade. Don’t think replacing Strome with Dvorak would have moved the needle a ton, but he is a few years younger. A little surprised they wouldn’t match what Montreal paid (although likely trading Chytil in place of one of those picks). Drury is likely hung up on Eichel which is scary at this point. If the surgery is successful, the price goes up. If not, obviously walk away. Sucks these talks likely continue another 4-6 months. At this point, would rather just roll with this group for the year and hope we have some surprises in the system already. Other teams seem to get lucky there, we haven’t had one at center since…?
- TC88

Need to draft centers in order to have a surprise in the system
TC88
New York Rangers
Joined: 10.24.2020

Sep 7 @ 8:53 AM ET
Need to draft centers in order to have a surprise in the system
- rangerdanger94


I almost edited my post to type this exact sentence!! So (frank)ing true.
aecliptic
New York Rangers
Location: Stacheville
Joined: 06.17.2010

Sep 7 @ 9:22 AM ET
My counter argument here is if you have a center that is top 10 in the league at scoring, then you don’t trade that away for a center that’s better at defense and faceoffs.

I get that he’s playing with Panarin, but pretty sure Panarin is putting up more points now with Strome than he did playing with Patrick Kane. Not that Strome is anywhere near the level of Kane, but the chemistry he has with Panarin is clearly working.

- rangerdanger94


Strome is top-10 in the league in scoring? What stats are you looking at?

Last season Strome's PPGA is 0.875, Hertl's is 0.86. This is essentially negligible. What's not negligible are the linemates that Hertl plays with.

Faceoffs: Strome 43.2%, Hertl 55.2%
All the other stats... Blocks, Hits, Giveaways and Takeaways are all in favor of Hertl.

Heres one fun stat I found.
Offensive zone starts in all situations: Strome 61.6% (Now what we have to remember here is Strome plays the RW on the PP)
Defensive zone starts in all situations: Strome 38.4% (Basically this means they put him out there if theyre desperate and the others have played their shifts)

Hertl oZS% is 50.1%, dZS% 49.1% (You have a guy here that is used equally at any point of the game through any situation).

____
What youre swapping here are 2 guys who score at a pretty much idential pace over the last 3 years. The difference is you getting back a 200ft player who can be used in any situation on the ice vs. someone who only plays in front of the red line.
dashripdot
Joined: 07.09.2009

Sep 7 @ 9:46 AM ET
At or before Strome becomes UFA is when Drury will earn his money. It would be hard to justify a substantially bigger cap-hit for Strome after this season, and Hertl will be over-priced given his injury history. That was the allure of Dvorak: better on the dot, tougher (not hard to do), younger, signed for three more years at the same hit as Strome is now. Oh, well. We will see what happens when it happens.
MeltingPlastic
New York Rangers
Location: outside philthadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.17.2007

Sep 7 @ 9:49 AM ET
At or before Strome becomes UFA is when Drury will earn his money. It would be hard to justify a substantially bigger cap-hit for Strome after this season, and Hertl will be over-priced given his injury history. That was the allure of Dvorak: better on the dot, tougher (not hard to do), younger, signed for three more years at the same hit as Strome is now. Oh, well. We will see what happens when it happens.
- dashripdot

I'm still praying for Krecji
aecliptic
New York Rangers
Location: Stacheville
Joined: 06.17.2010

Sep 7 @ 9:50 AM ET
At or before Strome becomes UFA is when Drury will earn his money. It would be hard to justify a substantially bigger cap-hit for Strome after this season, and Hertl will be over-priced given his injury history. That was the allure of Dvorak: better on the dot, tougher (not hard to do), younger, signed for three more years at the same hit as Strome is now. Oh, well. We will see what happens when it happens.
- dashripdot


I was huge on the Dvorak bandwagon because I felt his trajectory was going to go in a similar fashion as Hertl's with more minutes and better players.

Hertl's knee issue history is the biggest deterrent.
aecliptic
New York Rangers
Location: Stacheville
Joined: 06.17.2010

Sep 7 @ 9:52 AM ET
I'm still praying for Krecji
- MeltingPlastic


Why? Hes an older version of Strome. He has the same possession metrics and ice time splits in offensive / defensive zone starts. The only nice thing is he can actually win some faceoffs.
jimbro83
New York Rangers
Location: Lets Go Rangers!, NY
Joined: 12.25.2009

Sep 7 @ 9:58 AM ET
I'm still praying for Krecji
- MeltingPlastic


if you are actually gonna set aside time to pray for something, reach for somebody higher lol
aecliptic
New York Rangers
Location: Stacheville
Joined: 06.17.2010

Sep 7 @ 10:01 AM ET
if you are actually gonna set aside time to pray for something, reach for somebody higher lol
- jimbro83


Im still praying, if we decide to go after a 10m+ player, we go for a guy named Barkov.
jimbro83
New York Rangers
Location: Lets Go Rangers!, NY
Joined: 12.25.2009

Sep 7 @ 10:16 AM ET
this is one of the ads on my hockeybuzz right now

rangerdanger94
New York Rangers
Location: NY
Joined: 05.23.2010

Sep 7 @ 10:20 AM ET
Strome is top-10 in the league in scoring? What stats are you looking at?

Last season Strome's PPGA is 0.875, Hertl's is 0.86. This is essentially negligible. What's not negligible are the linemates that Hertl plays with.

Faceoffs: Strome 43.2%, Hertl 55.2%
All the other stats... Blocks, Hits, Giveaways and Takeaways are all in favor of Hertl.

Heres one fun stat I found.
Offensive zone starts in all situations: Strome 61.6% (Now what we have to remember here is Strome plays the RW on the PP)
Defensive zone starts in all situations: Strome 38.4% (Basically this means they put him out there if theyre desperate and the others have played their shifts)

Hertl oZS% is 50.1%, dZS% 49.1% (You have a guy here that is used equally at any point of the game through any situation).

____
What youre swapping here are 2 guys who score at a pretty much idential pace over the last 3 years. The difference is you getting back a 200ft player who can be used in any situation on the ice vs. someone who only plays in front of the red line.

- aecliptic

Strome finished 15th for centers in points last year with 49.

Backstrom was ranked 10th with 53 points, so I don’t doubt that Strome would have finished top 10 for centers if Panarin hadn’t taken that hiatus.

But I get your point, and do agree that Hertl would be an upgrade to Strome and one that is worth it now that you laid out the analytics.

My biggest concern with Strome is his next contract. I am comfortable with him being 2C this year but not at what his next contract will end up paying him
rangerdanger94
New York Rangers
Location: NY
Joined: 05.23.2010

Sep 7 @ 10:21 AM ET
this is one of the ads on my hockeybuzz right now


- jimbro83

The ads here are aids
GStone
New York Rangers
Location: NY
Joined: 04.17.2012

Sep 7 @ 10:21 AM ET
this is one of the ads on my hockeybuzz right now


- jimbro83

marcia brady?
Brukie
New York Rangers
Location: Putnam, NY
Joined: 06.14.2011

Sep 7 @ 10:23 AM ET
Im still praying, if we decide to go after a 10m+ player, we go for a guy named Barkov.
- aecliptic



rangerdanger94
New York Rangers
Location: NY
Joined: 05.23.2010

Sep 7 @ 10:28 AM ET

- Brukie

Is there anyone or anything you ever want the rangers to do to try and improve?
Fenrir
New York Rangers
Location: Jesus saves! Satan picks up the rebound...AND SCORES!!, NJ
Joined: 04.02.2015

Sep 7 @ 10:33 AM ET
this is one of the ads on my hockeybuzz right now


- jimbro83

Adblock Plus, yo.
picklerick
New York Rangers
Location: New York, NY
Joined: 03.01.2018

Sep 7 @ 11:12 AM ET
https://twitter.com/khl_e.../1435109779148574720?s=20

10 years since this happened. forgot about that
MeltingPlastic
New York Rangers
Location: outside philthadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.17.2007

Sep 7 @ 11:51 AM ET
Why? Hes an older version of Strome. He has the same possession metrics and ice time splits in offensive / defensive zone starts. The only nice thing is he can actually win some faceoffs.
- aecliptic


if you are actually gonna set aside time to pray for something, reach for somebody higher lol
- jimbro83


I want him because he doesn't cost us any assets and could be an amazing mentor to Chytil. If you bring in someone like him on a 1 year deal I think it would make a world of difference. But I doubt he has an NHL out clause
aecliptic
New York Rangers
Location: Stacheville
Joined: 06.17.2010

Sep 7 @ 12:03 PM ET
Strome finished 15th for centers in points last year with 49.

Backstrom was ranked 10th with 53 points, so I don’t doubt that Strome would have finished top 10 for centers if Panarin hadn’t taken that hiatus.

But I get your point, and do agree that Hertl would be an upgrade to Strome and one that is worth it now that you laid out the analytics.

My biggest concern with Strome is his next contract. I am comfortable with him being 2C this year but not at what his next contract will end up paying him

- rangerdanger94


If you use Couturier's contract as the baseline for a high end two-way center, Hertl should get around the same. Lets say 7.5m. Let's say Strome's next contract ask will be in the 7m range. I think you gotta go Hertl.
Brukie
New York Rangers
Location: Putnam, NY
Joined: 06.14.2011

Sep 7 @ 12:44 PM ET
Is there anyone or anything you ever want the rangers to do to try and improve?
- rangerdanger94


Yes but in the real world, not dreamland.

Which team wouldnt want to land land Barkov, but reality is he will resign in Fla.

But we have improved, we have Reaves now, he will drop the gloves with Wilson and be a scratch for the following 5 games straight.
jimbro83
New York Rangers
Location: Lets Go Rangers!, NY
Joined: 12.25.2009

Sep 7 @ 12:55 PM ET
Yes but in the real world, not dreamland.

Which team wouldnt want to land land Barkov, but reality is he will resign in Fla.

But we have improved, we have Reaves now, he will drop the gloves with Wilson and be a scratch for the following 5 games straight.

- Brukie


not his track record at all playing under Gallant
rangerdanger94
New York Rangers
Location: NY
Joined: 05.23.2010

Sep 7 @ 1:00 PM ET
Yes but in the real world, not dreamland.

Which team wouldnt want to land land Barkov, but reality is he will resign in Fla.

But we have improved, we have Reaves now, he will drop the gloves with Wilson and be a scratch for the following 5 games straight.

- Brukie

Which team wouldn’t want to have landed Panarin as a free agent too
aecliptic
New York Rangers
Location: Stacheville
Joined: 06.17.2010

Sep 7 @ 1:14 PM ET
Yes but in the real world, not dreamland.

Which team wouldnt want to land land Barkov, but reality is he will resign in Fla.

But we have improved, we have Reaves now, he will drop the gloves with Wilson and be a scratch for the following 5 games straight.

- Brukie


Now, if you had read the post I was responding to, rangerdanger said why sell youself short on dreaming for Krejci. To which I respond Ill always dream for Barkov. WTF is wrong with that?

Are you a robot? Do you not have dreams and aspirations of which you know youll probably never get, but still yet wonder how nice it would be? Or are you a cold-hearted cynic that lives life in a rigid straight line from birth to grave?
MeltingPlastic
New York Rangers
Location: outside philthadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.17.2007

Sep 7 @ 1:18 PM ET
Now, if you had read the post I was responding to, rangerdanger said why sell youself short on dreaming for Krejci. To which I respond Ill always dream for Barkov. WTF is wrong with that?

Are you a robot? Do you not have dreams and aspirations of which you know youll probably never get, but still yet wonder how nice it would be? Or are you a cold-hearted cynic that lives life in a rigid straight line from birth to grave?

- aecliptic


picklerick
New York Rangers
Location: New York, NY
Joined: 03.01.2018

Sep 7 @ 1:27 PM ET

- MeltingPlastic


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