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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Leafs vs. Sens, Top 40 Prospects - #16
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Archaic
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Waterloo, ON
Joined: 01.12.2011

Oct 5 @ 9:17 AM ET
I don’t think that was the point of the game. A bunch of guys got looks. It was interesting to see how they did.
- Canada Cup


Well the point of sports is entertainment regardless how poopty the players they decided to play are. Im just saying it was boring as eff.
Archaic
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Waterloo, ON
Joined: 01.12.2011

Oct 5 @ 9:17 AM ET

- dmnted



I cant say that probably wasnt part of it
Leafs43
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 06.16.2010

Oct 5 @ 9:19 AM ET
Boston had just missed the playoffs the year previous. I think they were looking to make some significant changes - notably they moved out Lucic and Hamilton, I believe. I don't know if the changes made them better on paper, but they returned to the playoffs after the moves.

Some teams make the moves when they have the fill-ins coming up in the system. A team like Tampa is prospect-rich because they had been rebuilding for a long time.

To fifty_mission's point, when you reach a point where you have drafted well and your prospects are filling in those gaps, you can reach a point of sustainability where you move out your expiring guys and fill them with youth prospects who have developed. The Leafs aren't there. One argument here is that they rushed the rebuild by grabbing Tavares instead of letting it happen organically and keeping a couple of additional 1sts - I would probably concede to that argument.

At this point, though, you have the assets and you have to put up the best team with what you have, not weaken your position for a lottery ticket (which is what any 20-32 pick is going to be).

- Monkeypunk


Well there you go. I wasn't aware they had missed the playoffs before trading Lucic.

winsix
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Henry Hudson's Fairchild 24 South Porcupine
Joined: 04.03.2016

Oct 5 @ 9:24 AM ET
I like Morgan and agree with the above.
I just dont want to watch him walk him for nothing, but I definitely dont want to see the leafs pay him anything over 6 - 6.5 per either. I dont care that other teams have greatly overpaid their D.

- Fakepartofme


I also like Rielly, he had a rather disappointing year, but he remains a very good asset. I think the salary limit you list is way lower than can be expected. If you believe he is a top 20 defenseman (which I believe is the case) the salary on a long term deal would at the very least be between $7.5 and $8 Million. I doubt very much he would sign for a penny less and I think he could see offers of $9 Million + from other teams if he decided that route. Nurse has a $9.5 M deal and is not even on this list yet.

https://www.spotrac.com/n...kings/cap-hit/defenseman/
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: 1st rd exit is the new normal, ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Oct 5 @ 9:27 AM ET
I'll probably regret these words, but I'm not convinced that losing Morgan Rielly wouldn't be better for us in the long run. I know he's a positive play driver and he adds value. By all metrics he adds value when he's on the ice.

So did Jake Gardiner.

I don't think anyone has missed him on our roster for a single day.

Objectively and honestly, when I think of Morgan Rielly, I think of a defenseman who loses more than 2/3rds of his board battles, doesn't clear the front of the net, doesn't tie up sticks, rarely blocks shots, doesn't hit and doesn't even know how to play a 2 on 1. He's an amazing skater with excellent vision and a great outlet pass with below average shooting.

Geez. I just described Tomas Kaberle. I'm not sure you don't get better overall value by having a more responsible defensive player who can just make smart outlet passes.

That's how I feel. But the reality is also that we might really notice his absence if we don't have anyone else who can drive the play effectively from the backend.

- Monkeypunk


you did describe Kaberle, the only difference from what I remember is that Kabby was sneaky good playing defense, he had a quick stick and rarely was caught out of position.
mjones242
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Pretentious Beer Snob, ON
Joined: 06.22.2015

Oct 5 @ 9:33 AM ET
I like Morgan and agree with the above.
I just dont want to watch him walk him for nothing, but I definitely dont want to see the leafs pay him anything over 6 - 6.5 per either. I dont care that other teams have greatly overpaid their D.

- Fakepartofme

I think we're at a point now that we have to accept that he is an "own rental". We can't replace his quality in-season and we may not be able to afford him in the off-season unless he takes a noticeable home town discount.

On this last point, and has been alluded to by others in this thread, do we really want him back anyway? Personally, I don't think he's a true stud #1 defender but rather a very good rover d-man who has wheels but has woes in his own end.

This is why I was ranting so hard this past off-season about trading him and signing Dougie Hamilton.
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Macrodata Refinement , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Oct 5 @ 9:42 AM ET
Trading him for picks and prospects isnt worse asset management if his role could be filled by a other dmen within the team or team. Which understandably we dont know as of yet, but could later this season (maybe Sandin and another player).
There's probably a hockey trade to be made, Morgan for a more defensively responsible dman but who is as offensive. Im just not sure if Dubie is looking for that.
Dunno.

- Fakepartofme


If Dubas sees he’s not going to get a deal with Rielly there’s no way he’s not looking at a hockey trade that could replace him. In the same way, if someone emerges internally, that changes the equation as well. As it stands, this is another take a shot year with Rielly playing in the last year of his contract.
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Oct 5 @ 9:42 AM ET
I also like Rielly, he had a rather disappointing year, but he remains a very good asset. I think the salary limit you list is way lower than can be expected. If you believe he is a top 20 defenseman (which I believe is the case) the salary on a long term deal would at the very least be between $7.5 and $8 Million. I doubt very much he would sign for a penny less and I think he could see offers of $9 Million + from other teams if he decided that route. Nurse has a $9.5 M deal and is not even on this list yet.

https://www.spotrac.com/n...kings/cap-hit/defenseman/

- winsix


I'm being pedantic, but I think Rielly is probably in the top 35. Here are some defensemen I'd rather have, or at least would consider equivalent to Rielly:

Darnell Nurse, Dougie Hamilton, Shea Theodore, Adam Fox, Jakob Chychrun, MacKenzie Weegar, Victor Hedman, Cale Makar, Charlie McAvoy, John Carlson, Samuel Girard, Mattias Ekholm, Drew Doughty, Brett Pesce, Alex Pietrangelo,
Torey Krug, Jake Muzzin, Justin Faulk, Mikhail Sergachev, Jaccob Slavin, John Klingberg, Ivan Provorov, Roman Josi, Miro Heiskanen, Aaron Ekblad, Quinn Hughes, Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon, Thomas Chabot, Josh Morrissey, T.J. Brodie, Seth Jones . . .

That scratches the surface - some of these guys like Faulk are maybe closer to Barrie than Rielly, and maybe don't quite deserve to be listed there, but in many ways Faulk isn't much different than Rielly. Obviously I don't want Doughty's contract, but I'd want Doughty. Some of those guys are on reasonable contracts and some are ludicrous. The reason for the pedantry is sort of to illustrate that the range of contracts is very wide in there.

Tyson Barrie isn't listed above and he just signed a 3 year x $4.5m deal and he led all defensemen in scoring. He also can't play defense as we all know all too well.
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Oct 5 @ 9:45 AM ET
I also like Rielly, he had a rather disappointing year, but he remains a very good asset. I think the salary limit you list is way lower than can be expected. If you believe he is a top 20 defenseman (which I believe is the case) the salary on a long term deal would at the very least be between $7.5 and $8 Million. I doubt very much he would sign for a penny less and I think he could see offers of $9 Million + from other teams if he decided that route. Nurse has a $9.5 M deal and is not even on this list yet.

https://www.spotrac.com/n...kings/cap-hit/defenseman/

- winsix

Oh I completely understand that 6.5 is not what he will make or is in the range of the other overpaid dmen. Its simply what I would feel comfortable paying him for what I believe he brings.
Nurse's deal is horrible, unfortunately we are seeing players salaries grow at a much faster rate than the cap (covid, I get it). For what Morgan brings defensively, he's just not worth anything over 6.5 imo on this leafs team. I think the 7.5 - 8 he will get could be spent in a better way to improve the D.
winsix
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Henry Hudson's Fairchild 24 South Porcupine
Joined: 04.03.2016

Oct 5 @ 9:45 AM ET
I think we're at a point now that we have to accept that he is an "own rental". We can't replace his quality in-season and we may not be able to afford him in the off-season unless he takes a noticeable home town discount.

On this last point, and has been alluded to by others in this thread, do we really want him back anyway? Personally, I don't think he's a true stud #1 defender but rather a very good rover d-man who has wheels but has woes in his own end.

This is why I was ranting so hard this past off-season about trading him and signing Dougie Hamilton.

- mjones242


If you look at his career numbers, he's had one season that sticks out in 2018-19 when he had 20 goals 72 points over a full season. With those numbers, he's worth re-signing, question is, can he do it moving forward? The other question is, how much of a fall off can you expect moving another player into that role? I like Rielly but objectively, I believe moving him out now, getting a good young inexpensive defenseman, a solid prospect and a pick may be better for the Leafs. Not only long term but this year as well. Freeing up capspace for the TDL may be a really good move.
bixll
Location: New Glasgow, NS
Joined: 09.04.2008

Oct 5 @ 9:51 AM ET
He should have been traded, or should be traded.
- fifty__missions




That clears everything up... Thanks.

I can see why you are so down on the Leafs Management.. Moves like that will change the team forever.
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Oct 5 @ 9:51 AM ET
If you look at his career numbers, he's had one season that sticks out in 2018-19 when he had 20 goals 72 points over a full season. With those numbers, he's worth re-signing, question is, can he do it moving forward? The other question is, how much of a fall off can you expect moving another player into that role? I like Rielly but objectively, I believe moving him out now, getting a good young inexpensive defenseman, a solid prospect and a pick may be better for the Leafs. Not only long term but this year as well. Freeing up capspace for the TDL may be a really good move.
- winsix

Agreed.
Key point being, "how much of a fall off do we expect moving another player into that role?"
Defensively, I believe we could see an improvement, offensively is where we could see a fall off. But what do the leafs need more? Offense, or better defensive play and cap space?
I dont think trading morgan and replacing with a player who isnt as offensive but possibly a little better defensive has a huge impact on our stanley cup chances.
Also, the past 12 playoff games (2 series) he's averaged 0.333 pts per game, while the previous 20 games (3 series) he averaged 0.75ppg. So he seems to be on a downward swing. I think his 0.333ppg could be replaced.
winsix
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Henry Hudson's Fairchild 24 South Porcupine
Joined: 04.03.2016

Oct 5 @ 9:59 AM ET
I'm being pedantic, but I think Rielly is probably in the top 35. Here are some defensemen I'd rather have, or at least would consider equivalent to Rielly:

Darnell Nurse, Dougie Hamilton, Shea Theodore, Adam Fox, Jakob Chychrun, MacKenzie Weegar, Victor Hedman, Cale Makar, Charlie McAvoy, John Carlson, Samuel Girard, Mattias Ekholm, Drew Doughty, Brett Pesce, Alex Pietrangelo,
Torey Krug, Jake Muzzin, Justin Faulk, Mikhail Sergachev, Jaccob Slavin, John Klingberg, Ivan Provorov, Roman Josi, Miro Heiskanen, Aaron Ekblad, Quinn Hughes, Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon, Thomas Chabot, Josh Morrissey, T.J. Brodie, Seth Jones . . .

That scratches the surface - some of these guys like Faulk are maybe closer to Barrie than Rielly, and maybe don't quite deserve to be listed there, but in many ways Faulk isn't much different than Rielly. Obviously I don't want Doughty's contract, but I'd want Doughty. Some of those guys are on reasonable contracts and some are ludicrous. The reason for the pedantry is sort of to illustrate that the range of contracts is very wide in there.

Tyson Barrie isn't listed above and he just signed a 3 year x $4.5m deal and he led all defensemen in scoring. He also can't play defense as we all know all too well.

- Monkeypunk


Good post, I rate Rielly higher than you obviously, but the important point is that there are many players that are over paid at all positions, but especially at defense, which makes this a little more tricky. Cody Ceci (marginally better than Marincin in my view) makes $3.25 M for the next 4 years!
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Oct 5 @ 10:02 AM ET
Good post, I rate Rielly higher than you obviously, but the important point is that there are many players that are over paid at all positions, but especially at defense, which makes this a little more tricky. Cody Ceci (marginally better than Marincin in my view) makes $3.25 M for the next 4 years!
- winsix

So hyman was overpaid
Ceci was overpaid
Nurse was overpaid.

Any commonality?
winsix
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Henry Hudson's Fairchild 24 South Porcupine
Joined: 04.03.2016

Oct 5 @ 10:03 AM ET
Agreed.
Key point being, "how much of a fall off do we expect moving another player into that role?"
Defensively, I believe we could see an improvement, offensively is where we could see a fall off. But what do the leafs need more? Offense, or better defensive play and cap space?
I dont think trading morgan and replacing with a player who isnt as offensive but possibly a little better defensive has a huge impact on our stanley cup chances.

- Fakepartofme


Agree, and IMO moving him now could be what needs to be done.
mjones242
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Pretentious Beer Snob, ON
Joined: 06.22.2015

Oct 5 @ 10:06 AM ET
If you look at his career numbers, he's had one season that sticks out in 2018-19 when he had 20 goals 72 points over a full season. With those numbers, he's worth re-signing, question is, can he do it moving forward? The other question is, how much of a fall off can you expect moving another player into that role? I like Rielly but objectively, I believe moving him out now, getting a good young inexpensive defenseman, a solid prospect and a pick may be better for the Leafs. Not only long term but this year as well. Freeing up capspace for the TDL may be a really good move.
- winsix

If there is a hockey trade to be had where we land a Top 4 d-man - who has term - in return for Rielly, I'd consider doing it.

I just don't think that deal realistically exists within the boundaries of this season.
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Oct 5 @ 10:06 AM ET
Agree, and IMO moving him now could be what needs to be done.
- winsix

Time for Dubie to moneyball it.
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Oct 5 @ 10:08 AM ET
If there is a hockey trade to be had where we land a Top 4 d-man - who has term - in return for Rielly, I'd consider doing it.

I just don't think that deal realistically exists within the boundaries of this season.

- mjones242

I think you could get a 3- 4 dman with a year or two left. I dont have the time to dig them up...but Dubie has people for that.
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Oct 5 @ 10:08 AM ET
So hyman was overpaid
Ceci was overpaid
Nurse was overpaid.

Any commonality?

- Fakepartofme


Ken Holland obviously owes Peter Chiarelli a favour. "Don't worry, pal. You won't be remembered as the worst GM in team history!"

. . .but God, that Ceci deal. 5 years from now, that's going to be mentioned in the same articles as the Jeff Finger contract.
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Macrodata Refinement , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Oct 5 @ 10:10 AM ET
Agreed.
Key point being, "how much of a fall off do we expect moving another player into that role?"
Defensively, I believe we could see an improvement, offensively is where we could see a fall off. But what do the leafs need more? Offense, or better defensive play and cap space?
I dont think trading morgan and replacing with a player who isnt as offensive but possibly a little better defensive has a huge impact on our stanley cup chances.

- Fakepartofme


A straight up hockey trade for a replacement makes sense and there’s nothing wrong with more defence at the expense of a little offence. Depending on the guy I think Dubas does a trade like that
mjones242
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Pretentious Beer Snob, ON
Joined: 06.22.2015

Oct 5 @ 10:11 AM ET
I think you could get a 3- 4 dman with a year or two left. I dont have the time to dig them up...but Dubie has people for that.
- Fakepartofme

How long would it take to dig them up?
winsix
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Henry Hudson's Fairchild 24 South Porcupine
Joined: 04.03.2016

Oct 5 @ 10:13 AM ET
So hyman was overpaid
Ceci was overpaid
Nurse was overpaid.

Any commonality?

- Fakepartofme


Yes Oilers management has been brutal for over a decade. Terrible cap management and brutal drafting and development. Just think, since 2010 they have had 4 first overall picks, a third and a fourth, and have McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH and Puljujarvi to show for it. Really two great players and nothing else special.
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Macrodata Refinement , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Oct 5 @ 10:13 AM ET
How long would it take to dig them up?
- mjones242


Cue to Igor in Young Frankenstein
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Macrodata Refinement , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Oct 5 @ 10:14 AM ET
Yes Oilers management has been brutal for over a decade. Terrible cap management and brutal drafting and development. Just think, since 2010 they have had 4 first overall picks, a third and a fourth, and have McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH and Puljujarvi to show for it. Really two great players and nothing else special.
- winsix


Holland doesn’t care about 5 years from now. He only cares about his contract and McJesus’ contract.
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Oct 5 @ 10:15 AM ET
One of the things the All or nothing series missed out on that I was really hoping there would be a lot of was Dubie's discussions with other GM's and his own management team.
A little more insight into those discussions would have been interesting to see IMO. Not enough time on the TDL talks, I get they may have been limited to what they could show (other people would have to sign off on it) but it would have been great to see.
One thing the NHL could do to generate off season interest, is a yearly 5- 6 part series on the behind the scenes discussions leading up to TDL and draft day. Give you an inside look at the movement within the NHL of the previous year and how it all went down.
Logistically, it could be a nightmare, having 64 cameras spread out among the 32 teams. But there are ways around it, maybe limit cameras to 20 - 22 teams and do audio for any convos with the other 10 teams.
But I would watch it for sure.
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