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All drafts are a crap shoot. The 2021 draft was beyond a crap shoot. Claiming you can tell which way any of these players will go in their careers is simply displaying ignorance. The truth is most of the players drafted are never going to be NHL players. You have a better chance in Vegas than predicting draft success.
- HoweHatrick
That's a pretty misleading over-generalization, given that: a) we're talking about a #10 overall selection, not some random mid-round pick, and b) TSN correctly predicted 20 of the first 21 picks in the 1st round (i.e. not exactly "beyond a crap shoot" in terms of knowing exactly who the majority of NHL teams felt the best 20 players were). Roll the dice in the later rounds if you want, but the first round of the NHL draft has a substantially different outcome probability. In fact, a serious majority of players drafted in the 1st round are definitely expected to play in the NHL (especially top-15 picks), and over 37% of regular NHL players are former 1st round draft picks.
https://dobberprospects.c...draft-pick-probabilities/
Even more importantly, that top-15 range is where the majority of high-end impact players (i.e. top-4 D, top-2 C) are drafted into the NHL, which makes it a critical opportunity for a rebuilding team to acquire that kind of high-potential talent. And why it's such a questionable decision to go off-the-board at #10 to chase a forward who's primary skill set realistically projects to a 3rd line supporting role. But go ahead and keep pretending these things are all just random chance and beyond the scope of anyone's comprehension... because not understanding how the draft works isn't displaying ignorance at all. |
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Not so much. I simply like to remind khawk that he is full of it.
How many times do people want to read that he is not happy with the Sens 21 draft? We get it already. He is still pissy on being rejected as the blogger and that Francis got the gig. Can you imagine if he were the blogger? One rant after another on the same tired post. Thankfully that didn't happen.
- HoweHatrick
Jesus, man... what is your deal? I wasn't "rejected as the blogger". I offered to write a piece about some potential expansion draft targets because it was getting to be a matter days before the Seattle expansion draft, and there hadn't been a new Senators blog on here in over six weeks or whatever after Michael left. In the process, I found out that someone had been assigned to start writing pieces very soon, and that was it. Have you ever seen me write anything even remotely bad about Kevin's blogs? No you haven't, because I don't have a single bad thing to say about Kevin's blogs. Not to mention that if you actually were reading my posts, you would have found no shortage of other topics like game reviews, UFA targets, trade options, waiver claims, prospects updates, that whole "blue taco" thing, cap speculation, etc.
So why don't you just calm down a bit. It's a hockey discussion forum, where you might occasionally hear some opinions you disagree with... deep breaths. |
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Also; apparently Clifford is a Leaf now. Sports Net is showing he was TRADED to the Leafs from St. Louis for “future considerations.” NOT a waiver claim.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/trade-tracker
- PavohnDatsvares
Interesting... I guess Clifford provides a bit of affordable toughness for them to bring back for just $1.0M AAV. Regardless, I really don't think it would have been a good fit with the Senators. I'm still hoping Dorion has some kind of trade irons in the fire, but as was discussed earlier it'd hard not to feel like he could be taken for a serious ride if the other team isn't highly motivated to move out some salary/AAV.
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Interesting... I guess Clifford provides a bit of affordable toughness for them to bring back for just $1.0M AAV. Regardless, I really don't think it would have been a good fit with the Senators. I'm still hoping Dorion has some kind of trade irons in the fire, but as was discussed earlier it'd hard not to feel like he could be taken for a serious ride if the other team isn't highly motivated to move out some salary/AAV.
- khawk
Oh, I have zero interest in Clifford in Ottawa. I just find it weird that people were talking about us claiming him on waivers…. But he was never on waivers? He was traded to Toronto? |
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Oh, I have zero interest in Clifford in Ottawa. I just find it weird that people were talking about us claiming him on waivers…. But he was never on waivers? He was traded to Toronto?
- PavohnDatsvares
I'm pretty sure I saw on the transaction list that he was officially waived... was probably traded right after he cleared. CapFriendly shows him as being in the minors on the Leafs page, so I guess it's basically an AHL move (i.e. they didn't claim him because they didn't want him on the NHL roster). |
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AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators |
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Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007
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I agree. I am a bit worried about injuries when it comes to him. He had injury issues last season in the SHL and he has taken some hard hits so far this season. If he keeps up his point production, he will become more and more a target for other teams just like Larkin is/was. Seider i'm not worried about him being a target...he has good size and mobility and likes the physical play.
- dcz28
I think Raymond will adjust. I liked the way he played - he's really electric and stood out to me until Stutzle and Sanderson were such high risers |
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So they've waited until they've effectively blown the season in order to target a guy like Terry, who's magically gone from a career-high of 20Pts/48GP, to being a top-5 scorer in the NHL, with a >30% shooting%? I could barely describe a more overvalued and risky trade option in the entire NHL than Troy Terry right now. Plus, what scouting report has Terry been mentioned as a C? He's only taken 20 faceoffs in his entire 144GP NHL career, and has been virtually locked beside Getzlaf during this hot streak... who in turn has taken >300 faceoffs so far this year, good for 4th best in the NHL.
Similarly, the time to target Granlund was when he was a UFA in the summer... not now that he's put up 16pts/15GP. Same with Duchene, who might have been a good value trade acquisition in the summer, but now has 16pts/15GP as well. You mention nobody wanting to do the Ducks a favour with Henrique or Silfverberg, but where that may have been true in the summer, they've now posted starts to the season of 13pts/16GP, and 9pts/10GP respectively. To put that in context, any of those 4 would be 2nd on the Senators in PPG by a mile... plus it's a pair of teams that are challenging for their respective division leads.
If these teams are selling right now, they're going to be selling high and expecting a quality return. That's why you take care of this kind of major roster business in the OFF SEASON... not when you're up the creek without a paddle, at a strategic disadvantage, and desperate for options.
- khawk
So when these trade talks happen, they can happen for months, setting up the parameters for down the road. Dorion is notorious for talking with GM's about the same player for over a year! The Ducks won't be able to keep all 3 of their young centers. When it comes to Terry, he has played center and at times as rotated with Getzlaf from wing to center. So just because Terry isn't taking many draws it doesn't mean he isn't playing center when those 2 are out a line! I have been told this from scouts on the west coast in regards to Terry. So he plays both positions.
Yes, we have all talked about Dorion should've done this in the summer, but there is nothing wrong in trying to set up something possibly happening down the road.
There are a lot of moving parts in Nashville. Forsberg has been injured a lot and not producing, but they cant move the contacts of Duchene or Johansen.
As for teams doing them the Ducks a favour, it doesn't matter that Silverberg and Henquire are off to a good starts, the term on their deals, every GM knows how desperate Anaheim is to unload them. So any GM calling them is in a position of strength, the numbers they are putting up just helps the Ducks in possibly convincing a team to take on the team, but is it fools gold their starts! |
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I'm pretty sure I saw on the transaction list that he was officially waived... was probably traded right after he cleared. CapFriendly shows him as being in the minors on the Leafs page, so I guess it's basically an AHL move (i.e. they didn't claim him because they didn't want him on the NHL roster).
- khawk
He cleared waivers, then was traded to TO, then immediately assigned to the Marlies.
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Jesus, man... what is your deal? I wasn't "rejected as the blogger". I offered to write a piece about some potential expansion draft targets because it was getting to be a matter days before the Seattle expansion draft, and there hadn't been a new Senators blog on here in over six weeks or whatever after Michael left. In the process, I found out that someone had been assigned to start writing pieces very soon, and that was it. Have you ever seen me write anything even remotely bad about Kevin's blogs? No you haven't, because I don't have a single bad thing to say about Kevin's blogs. Not to mention that if you actually were reading my posts, you would have found no shortage of other topics like game reviews, UFA targets, trade options, waiver claims, prospects updates, that whole "blue taco" thing, cap speculation, etc.
So why don't you just calm down a bit. It's a hockey discussion forum, where you might occasionally hear some opinions you disagree with... deep breaths.
- khawk
its all good folks, we all arent going to agree here. We all have our way of posting things and sometimes people interrupt opinions differently than others. Thanks for always posting solid opinions and info.
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That's a pretty misleading over-generalization, given that: a) we're talking about a #10 overall selection, not some random mid-round pick, and b) TSN correctly predicted 20 of the first 21 picks in the 1st round (i.e. not exactly "beyond a crap shoot" in terms of knowing exactly who the majority of NHL teams felt the best 20 players were). Roll the dice in the later rounds if you want, but the first round of the NHL draft has a substantially different outcome probability. In fact, a serious majority of players drafted in the 1st round are definitely expected to play in the NHL (especially top-15 picks), and over 37% of regular NHL players are former 1st round draft picks.
https://dobberprospects.c...draft-pick-probabilities/
Even more importantly, that top-15 range is where the majority of high-end impact players (i.e. top-4 D, top-2 C) are drafted into the NHL, which makes it a critical opportunity for a rebuilding team to acquire that kind of high-potential talent. And why it's such a questionable decision to go off-the-board at #10 to chase a forward who's primary skill set realistically projects to a 3rd line supporting role. But go ahead and keep pretending these things are all just random chance and beyond the scope of anyone's comprehension... because not understanding how the draft works isn't displaying ignorance at all.
- khawk
The bottom line is on this pick and like you referenced, you don't reach on a pick that's in the top 10! You aren't always in the top 10 and like you said, when you are in a high spot, you make sure hit on a top end player to build your team.
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I can't imagine a deal for Terry right now. He's one of the hottest players in the game right now and his efficiency is unsustainable. Ducks would be silly not to try maximize value. As mentioned by khawk, he's playing significant time with an established centre in Getzlaf rather than playing centre himself. However, even if he plays on the wing, it's a step up from what the Sens have after Batherson.
Sens are between a rock and a hard place. Everyone and their sister knows this club didn't have a complete NHL roster when the season opened and it's even more true now with injuries and COVID cases. You can smell the desperation from a mile away. There are some really impressive pieces on this team but Dorion has not been able to insulate them effectively. Other rebuilding/retooling teams like the Ducks, Wings, and Kings have been able to have a good running start this year but the Sens have not. Declaring a rebuild as 'over' was premature.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0
As I mentioned in khawks response, they are splitting time on the wing and at center as they play on the same line and the Ducks are basically doing this to prep him for when Getzlaf is retired. GMs talked to other GMs for months before a deal is set up, one of this magnitude. But you are so right, the rebuild isn't over, far from it. Like you said Dorion has failed at insulating the young prospects, unlike teams that you mentioned!
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and khawk has pretty much been spot on with all of his "complaining".
Kevin I was wondering if they (the team) got a bad batch of tests? What are the symptoms like for the tenacious ten? If they're all asymptomatic......
- Octavarium
Well when the league is now saying if you got the J&J shot, that you need a 3rd booster, who knows what the hell the league is doing! It sure sounds like they arent using effective testing to be honest. |
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Watching the Ducks tonight, Terry has probably played more center than RW, but Getzlaf takes the draw for that line. Getzlaf has played a lot of wing tonight on that line. But right now, Getzlaf is 14-0 in the faceoff circle. WOW! |
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What the hell are you talking about??? The Ducks will have more than enough cap room to sign Terry AND Zegras AND McTavish. Besides, they're both signed for another year. By the time those players need new contracts, Anaheim will have $54 million in cap space. |
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What the hell are you talking about??? The Ducks will have more than enough cap room to sign Terry AND Zegras AND McTavish. Besides, they're both signed for another year. By the time those players need new contracts, Anaheim will have $54 million in cap space.
- duxcup07
Ok so if you go year by year, next summer please tell me how they fill out their roster if they let Lindholm and Manson walk. They have 11M in cap space this year. But with those 2 players almost making 10M, plus you have to sign your RFA's and give ELC to draft picks from 2022 and maybe a few from the 2021 draft. So please tell me how the Ducks fill out their roster for 2022-23. Why are you looking ahead to 2023 when this team is in cap hell this coming summer unless they just let those 2 on D walk? Ask many teams in the NHL what happens when you let the glue on your blueline walk? I could keep going.
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That's a pretty misleading over-generalization, given that: a) we're talking about a #10 overall selection, not some random mid-round pick, and b) TSN correctly predicted 20 of the first 21 picks in the 1st round (i.e. not exactly "beyond a crap shoot" in terms of knowing exactly who the majority of NHL teams felt the best 20 players were). Roll the dice in the later rounds if you want, but the first round of the NHL draft has a substantially different outcome probability. In fact, a serious majority of players drafted in the 1st round are definitely expected to play in the NHL (especially top-15 picks), and over 37% of regular NHL players are former 1st round draft picks.
https://dobberprospects.c...draft-pick-probabilities/
Even more importantly, that top-15 range is where the majority of high-end impact players (i.e. top-4 D, top-2 C) are drafted into the NHL, which makes it a critical opportunity for a rebuilding team to acquire that kind of high-potential talent. And why it's such a questionable decision to go off-the-board at #10 to chase a forward who's primary skill set realistically projects to a 3rd line supporting role. But go ahead and keep pretending these things are all just random chance and beyond the scope of anyone's comprehension... because not understanding how the draft works isn't displaying ignorance at all.
- khawk
There was very little hockey played. The numbers were damn near worthless. It is pretty easy to copy TSN's Top 31 and say look, I am correct. Look how smart we all are.
Try again, champ. |
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I think my biggest issue with the #10 pick, is the value that was lost. You could have traded down...WAY down and maybe acquired that young NHL center you so desperately needed. Or a good stay at home reliable defenseman and STILL drafted some "barely second rounder".
By not doing so, it incredulously suggests that Dorion prized this guy SO HIGH he felt someone else would swoop in with the 11th--------------150th? pick and take his man.
Really?
I would have bet money on it not happening.
And now we have rumors swirling that the Sens are eyeing some young Duck, player of the week, in a trade. Ya that will be cheap. I'm for trying Stutzle at center. |
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There was very little hockey played. The numbers were damn near worthless. It is pretty easy to copy TSN's Top 31 and say look, I am correct. Look how smart we all are.
Try again, champ.
- HoweHatrick
No, it's not "easy" or "smart"... it's a direct reflection of the consensus opinion of the people who are actually making these decisions in real life. If that consensus had no value, then it would be virtually impossible for every other NHL team with a top-20 pick to fall 100% within that consensus... except one, of course. Plus, if the numbers were damn near worthless (which is highly debatable), then you have to consider what criteria and evidence were being used, especially given the confidence with which they leapt nearly 20 picks off the board to pick a player who was injured for much of the year (i.e. with an even more limited evidence base). And when the outcome of that is a player with the primary attributes of toughness and NHL pedigree, the chances of that player being anywhere near the BPA at #10 drops right off the cliff.
Early returns are already reinforcing this in spades. You obviously choose to put no value in any of that, but don't be surprised if other people do. Let's just call it agree to disagree, and move on.
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I'm for trying Stutzle at center.
- Octavarium
This is the idea that has quietly just fallen off the face of the Earth, despite what many believed or were told at the 2020 draft. Yet despite all of the injuries, and the fact they have far more quality on the wing they could support Stutzle with, they won't even consider playing him down the middle with face-off insulation from a guy like Paul. So I think we can safely call that idea DOA. |
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This is the idea that has quietly just fallen off the face of the Earth, despite what many believed or were told at the 2020 draft. Yet despite all of the injuries, and the fact they have far more quality on the wing they could support Stutzle with, they won't even consider playing him down the middle with face-off insulation from a guy like Paul. So I think we can safely call that idea DOA.
- khawk
It’s really strange when you consider hindsight. One of the knocks on the Stu pick was that you already have Brady on your top line left wing. To negate that knock, we were told he plays centre (even by Dorion himself). However, the evidence for that was minimal (I think he played some centre at the World Juniors, but that was it), but the narrative lived on.
The logic of playing a prized prospect on the wing rather than centre to “isolate” them never really held water and now the team has essentially one healthy NHL centre (apologies to Tierney) yet Stu hasn’t been experimented with. Either DJ is unwilling to adapt, or the centre discussions were more of a pipedream.
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Guess that's what agree to disagree looks like to you. Very telling.
- khawk
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Ok so if you go year by year, next summer please tell me how they fill out their roster if they let Lindholm and Manson walk. They have 11M in cap space this year. But with those 2 players almost making 10M, plus you have to sign your RFA's and give ELC to draft picks from 2022 and maybe a few from the 2021 draft. So please tell me how the Ducks fill out their roster for 2022-23. Why are you looking ahead to 2023 when this team is in cap hell this coming summer unless they just let those 2 on D walk? Ask many teams in the NHL what happens when you let the glue on your blueline walk? I could keep going.
- PuckPix
Who cares about this year? As of right now, they'll have $40+ million in cap space next year. I can't see them giving Hampus $10 mil a year, more like $7 to $8 million. Manson, while he's been good so far, doesn't merit a huge raise. Rackell can walk. Getzlaf will get another $3 million. Milano will probably get $2.5 million. Lundestrom $2 million. Steel is the iffy one. He's been bad but has been looking better lately, but I can't see him getting a huge raise, let's say $1.5 million. That's $22 million in signings. $18 million left in cap room and all the kids are signed for another year. There will be plenty for Zegras, Terry, and McTavish.  |
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It’s really strange when you consider hindsight. One of the knocks on the Stu pick was that you already have Brady on your top line left wing. To negate that knock, we were told he plays centre (even by Dorion himself). However, the evidence for that was minimal (I think he played some centre at the World Juniors, but that was it), but the narrative lived on.
The logic of playing a prized prospect on the wing rather than centre to “isolate” them never really held water and now the team has essentially one healthy NHL centre (apologies to Tierney) yet Stu hasn’t been experimented with. Either DJ is unwilling to adapt, or the centre discussions were more of a pipedream.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0
You're right, the notion of Stutzle playing in the NHL as a centre was no small matter on draft day, and it did seem like a redundancy to come out of the top-5 picks with a pair of LW and a pair of LD as their best four players. Plus, if playing centre was a serious consideration, they could have used the AHL to give him time/space to adapt. As much as everyone likes Stutzle, it wasn't necessary for him to go right the NHL out of training camp, and it may not have been such a great thing for his long-term development. This is especially true, if they had no real intention of providing him with adequate NHL-quality supporting talent.
That said, if they were just trying to focus on the positive at the 2020 draft, that's understandable. It was maybe THE pivotal day of the rebuild, and they certainly came away with some high-quality talent. But at some point you have to get down to the brass tax of team design, and what position/role your top-players are going to be playing (e.g. when they start expecting $8Mx8yr contracts). And from that lens, right now it's very unclear where the 2nd/3rd lines are going, especially if Stutzle isn't going to play regularly with their other top forwards. |
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