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Forums :: Blog World :: Kevin Francis: Three Sens topics for discussion! Gabe Vilardi in a Sens uniform?
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Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Nov 19 @ 10:49 PM ET
I take issue with the bolded part on Vilardi. He gets an incomplete grade versus Brown who hasn't shown it yet and might never show it as he's already 23 1/2. Granted, some big guys take longer to develop (think Brian Boyle) but, to date, you have evidence that Brown ain't going to his hit ceiling or anywhere near it.

In comparison, Vilardi is ~18 months younger than Brown. Both were drafted in the exact same spot at no. 11 a year apart. Both were expected to have 1C ceilings and (probably) 3C floors. Brown got 30 NHL games before the start of this season. Vilardi had more than double that. Vilardi also had better NHL production. All of this should be viewed through the lens of Vilardi having a career threatening back injury that he overcame.

But I certainly get where people might look at Vilardi similarly to Brown. I made reference to it in a prior post. It is, however, superficial. Putting this year into perspective, Vilardi struggled with finding a fit in brief playing time based on the depth chart. In very limited usage before going into Covid protocol, he played on 4 different line combos with mostly bottom 6 players and rookies. I think Vilardi needs to get more top 6 minutes and he won't get that on the Kings. I think that's what Blake figured out and why he was sent to AHL Ontario.

If you give Viladi top 6 minutes, which he'd get in OTT, I think you'll see a productive payer, especially next to Tim. Vilardi might just be a stopgap for OTT, but he's proven he can play when deployed with better players around him. It would certainly help Tim and that's who OTT absolutely wants to see play better. Brown wasn't and isn't that guy.

Then there is fit: the Kings don't need Stafford taking the minutes of any kids. They don't need more draft picks. They need a LHD.

- Only_A_Ladd


Great post! I can say this, I am very close to someone that is part of Vilardi's camp....lets not forget it was someone here in Ottawa who helped diagnose the injury properly that the Kings misdiagnosed! It kept Vilardi out for awhile due to LA messing up. I know for a fact he would love to play in Ottawa! And I will leave it at that as I wish I could say more.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Nov 20 @ 12:50 AM ET
I watched his last 3 games and he's a totally different player. The Blues organization have completely changed his game. He's the reason for Springfield being in 1st place and having the #1 PP in the league. He dominates the play and with better finishers he would have a lot more points. His problem is the logjam at C in St-Louis with O'Reilly, Schenn, Thomas. Schenn is out but they won't bring Brown up because they said that when they bring him up he stays up. He'll be in the NHL by January.
- granpa

So you watched 3 games (2 of which they lost), and have concluded that Brown is the reason for them being in 1st place? Did you notice they had a D-man who put up 20pts in his first 12GP, as well as 3 forwards who are outscoring Brown, plus 3 more forwards with just 1 fewer point, and a pair of goaltenders putting up .918 and .923 sv%? That sounds like a conspicuously strong supporting cast, yet it's all Logan Brown and his team-worst +/- getting the job done, is it? What about now that they're not even in the top-5 for PP%? Or the reality that an AHL player who needs the PP of a 1st place team to help generate over 1/2 of their points isn't exactly a transferable skill set to a bottom-6 role in the NHL. Plus, he's yet to sustain his annual nagging injury. But by all means, keep gushing over Brown... not sure why you're so infatuated with him, but he's really no closer to the NHL at this point than he was when 31 teams passed on him on waivers just a few weeks ago.
PuckPix
Joined: 01.12.2021

Nov 20 @ 1:10 AM ET
So you watched 3 games, and have concluded that Brown is the reason for them being in 1st place? Did you notice they had a D-man who put up 20pts in his first 12GP, as well as 3 forwards who are outscoring Brown, plus 3 more forwards with just 1 fewer point, and a pair of goaltenders putting up .918 and .923 sv%? That sounds like a conspicuously strong supporting cast, yet it's all Logan Brown and his team-worst +/- getting the job done, is it? What about now that they're not even in the top-5 for PP%? Or the reality that an AHL player who needs the PP of a 1st place team to help generate over 1/2 of their points isn't exactly a transferable skill set to a bottom-6 role in the NHL. Plus, he's yet to sustain his annual nagging injury. But by all means, keep gushing over Brown... not sure why you're so infatuated with him, but he's really no closer to the NHL at this point than he was when 31 teams passed on him on waivers just a few weeks ago.
- khawk


I was commenting in the Jets blog about prospects. Ottawa mismanaged Logan Brown, another one that comes to mind is Curtis Lazar. The Jets are playing Prefetti on the 4th line with nobody. I said in that blog, play the guy in the top 9, with skilled players. Or let him dominated the AHL. Batherson needed more time in the AHL, he went from playing top minutes to bottom minutes in Ottawa, then they sent him down for 1.5 years, look at him now. So many teams do this, you would think these coaches would learn from other coaches mistakes and how they handled high skilled players coming out of junior. Sokolov should've got a look with solid players, but instead he played on the 4th line during his call up time. How can you evaluate these prospects when they play with nobody? Play them with skilled players, end of story.
Mithos
Joined: 04.14.2021

Nov 20 @ 9:48 AM ET
I was commenting in the Jets blog about prospects. Ottawa mismanaged Logan Brown, another one that comes to mind is Curtis Lazar. The Jets are playing Prefetti on the 4th line with nobody. I said in that blog, play the guy in the top 9, with skilled players. Or let him dominated the AHL. Batherson needed more time in the AHL, he went from playing top minutes to bottom minutes in Ottawa, then they sent him down for 1.5 years, look at him now. So many teams do this, you would think these coaches would learn from other coaches mistakes and how they handled high skilled players coming out of junior. Sokolov should've got a look with solid players, but instead he played on the 4th line during his call up time. How can you evaluate these prospects when they play with nobody? Play them with skilled players, end of story.
- PuckPix



i can understand playing a good prospect on the 3rd/4th line IF they plan on sending him down in a couple of games so he can get a feel for what NHL hockey is so he can better prepare for NHL hockey in the minors, playing a good prospect only on the 4th line for extended periods is assinine and retarded and horrendous coaching...
spazzbot
Location: Maple Zombie
Joined: 02.14.2013

Nov 20 @ 10:55 AM ET
At least when they start again. The cycle of playing the teams the leafs just beat down is broken for awhile. Those are harder games because they are looking to bounce back against a weaker opponent
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Nov 20 @ 11:07 AM ET
I was commenting in the Jets blog about prospects. Ottawa mismanaged Logan Brown, another one that comes to mind is Curtis Lazar. The Jets are playing Prefetti on the 4th line with nobody. I said in that blog, play the guy in the top 9, with skilled players. Or let him dominated the AHL. Batherson needed more time in the AHL, he went from playing top minutes to bottom minutes in Ottawa, then they sent him down for 1.5 years, look at him now. So many teams do this, you would think these coaches would learn from other coaches mistakes and how they handled high skilled players coming out of junior. Sokolov should've got a look with solid players, but instead he played on the 4th line during his call up time. How can you evaluate these prospects when they play with nobody? Play them with skilled players, end of story.
- PuckPix

I don't disagree that young players should be put in the right development situation to have the best chance of success. But it's a mistake to assume that every player will succeed, just because they were a high pick. Not everyone is capable of playing at the NHL level, with higher pace/intensity, and where time/space is taken away. Ultimately, it's up to the player to put it all together and make their mark when they get their NHL opportunities. You could argue that Lazar was rushed, but it was never clear he had more than 3rd line potential, and 8 years/4 teams later he's never had more than a 20pts season. It's actually one of the few times the Senators have cut bait at the right time with a prospect, and gotten half-decent value in return.

It's also kind of ironic that you mentioned Batherson being handled well. So they did that well, just as they did with other later-round forwards like Stone, Hoffman, Pageau, Dzingel, and Batherson. And they've also done relatively well in developing other 1st round picks like Karlsson, Zibanejad, Ceci, White, Chabot, Tkachuk, Bernard-Docker, Thomson, and Stutzle, with it being a bit early to tell with Greig, Sanderson, and Boucher. The ones who really haven't panned out in some way were Cowen, Puempel, Noesen, Lazar, and Brown...and they really weren't wrong about Cowen, Puempel, Noesen, or Lazar. So the track record isn't exactly one of failure in terms of appropriate player development... sometimes the player just doesn't have it.

Brown's got offensive skill, but he pretty clearly not suited to a 3rd/4th line role, and he's nowhere near good enough to be a #1C. He's basically a #2C or bust, and he's now with a team with players like O'Reilly, Schenn, and Thomas already playing way over his head. Teams need production and two-way competency from a 2nd line in order to be competitive, and Brown only somewhat covers off one of those criteria. That's why teams don't just give out 2nd line ice time out like candy to young players, unless they're really showing that they can handle the responsibility. And that means a whole lot more than just putting up PP points when given cherry-picked ice time.
granpa
Joined: 07.03.2015

Nov 20 @ 11:21 AM ET
So you watched 3 games (2 of which they lost), and have concluded that Brown is the reason for them being in 1st place? Did you notice they had a D-man who put up 20pts in his first 12GP, as well as 3 forwards who are outscoring Brown, plus 3 more forwards with just 1 fewer point, and a pair of goaltenders putting up .918 and .923 sv%? That sounds like a conspicuously strong supporting cast, yet it's all Logan Brown and his team-worst +/- getting the job done, is it? What about now that they're not even in the top-5 for PP%? Or the reality that an AHL player who needs the PP of a 1st place team to help generate over 1/2 of their points isn't exactly a transferable skill set to a bottom-6 role in the NHL. Plus, he's yet to sustain his annual nagging injury. But by all means, keep gushing over Brown... not sure why you're so infatuated with him, but he's really no closer to the NHL at this point than he was when 31 teams passed on him on waivers just a few weeks ago.
- khawk


Springfield has very little skill and they're in 1st place. They play a very structured 5 man defensive system with balanced F lines. Brown's line is the most dominant with linemates that can't finish. These linemates are Nathan Walker and Nathan Todd and they have a total of 100 goals in 440 AHL games between the 2 of them. But then I get it, you're a stat man so you don't need to see the process only the final numbers.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Nov 20 @ 1:05 PM ET
New blog is up! DJ Smith just doesn't get it! Have a read!
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Nov 20 @ 3:11 PM ET
Springfield has very little skill and they're in 1st place. They play a very structured 5 man defensive system with balanced F lines. Brown's line is the most dominant with linemates that can't finish. These linemates are Nathan Walker and Nathan Todd and they have a total of 100 goals in 440 AHL games between the 2 of them. But then I get it, you're a stat man so you don't need to see the process only the final numbers.
- granpa

Actually, I'm more of a "nobody in the NHL would claim him off waivers for free" guy, but I keep forgetting about the power of your "vision", and your persistantly unrealistic impression of Brown's skill. Be sure to let me know when he starts stealing minutes from O'Reilly, Schenn, or Thomas.
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