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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Bruins Beat Flyers, 5-2; Phantom Lose in OT,3-2
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MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Nov 22 @ 1:13 PM ET
So you're saying in your opinion the Flyers didn't need to have a more physical presence in the back end? They were just fine, tough enough, consistently winning battles below the goal line, etc.? You have a right to your opinion and I have a right to mine, and IMO the Flyers needed a defenseman like Risto.


- jd250


Every defenseman has to be able to play in their own end and win board battles and coverage battles around the net. However they didn't need to add a player who goes out of his way to try and plaster players. The best defenseman in the league, that make the biggest impact are defenseman whose play results in your team having the puck more and attacking offensively. The better you are at that, the better of a defenseman you are. Ristolainen does not make a major impact in that area. The Flyers need the kind of player I described to improve their transition game and to spend more time attacking and less time defending. No matter how well you defend, and Ristolainen is a mediocre defender, it is losing hockey.


Now, get ready to have your mind blown with a simple metric comparison. I think you and a lot of people would say that Provorov is the Flyers best defenseman. Well have a look at this:

TGA XGA
Provorov 14 11.2
Risto 13 10.4

This says that Risto has been on the ice for LESS goals against than Provorov, and Risto's Expected Goals Against (given where shots come from for and against while the player is on the ice at even strength) is LESS also. For a player that is the cause of so many problems for the Flyers, how can you possible explain this away?

- jd250


You know, I earlier explained to you why per/60 is better. You see, Provorov has played 278.06 of ice time at 5 on 5. Ristolainen has played 237.42. Also Provorov has played on the top pair all season while Ristolainen has not. What happened in Buffalo when they used Ristolainen on a top pairing? Disaster.

Provorov 1.51 GA/60

Ristolainen 1.77 GA/60
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Nov 22 @ 1:20 PM ET
A trade that’s not working out for anyone. A young player that was given up on by a team traded for another guy in the same scenario. No thanks on a guy like that
- ClaudeFather

Nashville won the trade. They dropped a massive cap hit and got two young players out of it. A 22 year older player developing in the minors isn’t a failed trade.
bradster
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.18.2009

Nov 22 @ 1:22 PM ET
Nashville won the trade. They dropped a massive cap hit and got two young players out of it. A 22 year older player developing in the minors isn’t a failed trade.
- SuperSchennBros


HAHAHAHAH this isn't serious is it?
bradster
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.18.2009

Nov 22 @ 1:22 PM ET
Nashville won the trade. They dropped a massive cap hit and got two young players out of it. A 22 year older player developing in the minors isn’t a failed trade.
- SuperSchennBros


HAHAHAHAH this isn't serious is it?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Nov 22 @ 1:23 PM ET
Good then you understand what it is like to fly down the left wing and see a monster in your peripheral who wants to remove you from your spine.

You get how that can impact your mindset. Your decision making. How impactful that can be especially considering that monster can flat out fly and will close in on you quickly if you attempt to take him wide.

You understand since you play what that cross check can feel like right behind your ear or on the side near your kidneys while in front of the net. You get that.

You also understand why there is that inherit fud opponents feel when being on the ice against that kinda player.

You also understand that no analytic can properly represent the impact that kind of a player can have on an opponent. You simply can’t capture that in a stat.

Also how then the opponent must react, which usually means their 4th line runs around taking penalties.

If you play the game and watch them in person that is perfect. Then you get it.

There are some on here that simply look at stats after the game and then act like they are experts. Act like those stats reflect some type of factual support behind their agenda.

For me, I enjoy playing, watching the game and formulating my own opinion about a player. I don’t need to use outdated corsi metrics or analytics to judge a player. I think analytics have their place. I do, but there is a reason why scouts are in the crowd. Human beings using theirs eyes and intellect to judge players. Ya see, if analytics were that important those scouts would be unemployed, now wouldn’t they?

7 GMs in the nhl were willing to give up more than a 1st for Risto. I think a 1st and 2nd for him was a borderline overpayment. Haag irrelevant as Seeler is prob a better player for half the price.

Regardless, since we have been reminded countless times how bad the analytics were on Risto I suppose those GMs simply just don’t put too much stock in that kinda thing at times. Guessing those GMs are pretty smart and have access the every analytic known to man.

- Joe Nardone


If this was your though process perhaps that why you didn't make it to the NHL? Did you?

I'm disappointed that the Flyers didn't let the other GM's overspend for the player.

How can anyone take your opinion on Ristolainen seriously when you just stated that Seeler is a better player than Haag?

Analytics can tell you everything that happens on the ice when a player is on the ice. Know what they show us this season and over his career? That the impact that you think he has on other players, is not the case.

I hope everyone knows that the numbers currently for when Ristolainen is on the ice, are not terrible. They're not great but they're not terrible either.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Nov 22 @ 1:28 PM ET
I also said they were actively going after him. He gets opposing players off their game in that way as well.
- MBFlyerfan


I've watched pretty much every game with the exception of a hand full of periods and as a whole, I don't see that he does that. Certainly teams are aware of him and his hitting but I feel that most team believe that they can take advantage of his over aggressiveness.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Nov 22 @ 1:28 PM ET
Nashville won the trade. They dropped a massive cap hit and got two young players out of it. A 22 year older player developing in the minors isn’t a failed trade.
- SuperSchennBros

No one won this trade
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Nov 22 @ 2:13 PM ET
I've watched pretty much every game with the exception of a hand full of periods and as a whole, I don't see that he does that. Certainly teams are aware of him and his hitting but I feel that most team believe that they can take advantage of his over aggressiveness.
- MJL



I've seen three games in person already this season and he most certainly does. I also notice that much of it are things you don't see on camera from the TV. Much of it is away from the play.

Other than that point, you and I are pretty much in agreement as to what kind of player Ristolainen is.
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Nov 22 @ 3:00 PM ET
Hayes week to week

Allison skates and Foerster out 5 months

then beat goes on


Point out indefinite for Tampa
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Nov 22 @ 3:06 PM ET
Good then you understand what it is like to fly down the left wing and see a monster in your peripheral who wants to remove you from your spine.

You get how that can impact your mindset. Your decision making. How impactful that can be especially considering that monster can flat out fly and will close in on you quickly if you attempt to take him wide.

You understand since you play what that cross check can feel like right behind your ear or on the side near your kidneys while in front of the net. You get that.

You also understand why there is that inherit fud opponents feel when being on the ice against that kinda player.

You also understand that no analytic can properly represent the impact that kind of a player can have on an opponent. You simply can’t capture that in a stat.

Also how then the opponent must react, which usually means their 4th line runs around taking penalties.

If you play the game and watch them in person that is perfect. Then you get it.

There are some on here that simply look at stats after the game and then act like they are experts. Act like those stats reflect some type of factual support behind their agenda.

For me, I enjoy playing, watching the game and formulating my own opinion about a player. I don’t need to use outdated corsi metrics or analytics to judge a player. I think analytics have their place. I do, but there is a reason why scouts are in the crowd. Human beings using theirs eyes and intellect to judge players. Ya see, if analytics were that important those scouts would be unemployed, now wouldn’t they?

7 GMs in the nhl were willing to give up more than a 1st for Risto. I think a 1st and 2nd for him was a borderline overpayment. Haag irrelevant as Seeler is prob a better player for half the price.


Regardless, since we have been reminded countless times how bad the analytics were on Risto I suppose those GMs simply just don’t put too much stock in that kinda thing at times. Guessing those GMs are pretty smart and have access the every analytic known to man.

- Joe Nardone

THANK YOU!! Finally, someone who actually knows what they are talking about!
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Nov 22 @ 3:08 PM ET
I also said they were actively going after him. He gets opposing players off their game in that way as well.
- MBFlyerfan

Yes, see you actually have to watch the games, AND, actually know what you are looking at! 'm glad you saw what you did this weekend!
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Nov 22 @ 3:09 PM ET
Every defenseman has to be able to play in their own end and win board battles and coverage battles around the net. However they didn't need to add a player who goes out of his way to try and plaster players. The best defenseman in the league, that make the biggest impact are defenseman whose play results in your team having the puck more and attacking offensively. The better you are at that, the better of a defenseman you are. Ristolainen does not make a major impact in that area. The Flyers need the kind of player I described to improve their transition game and to spend more time attacking and less time defending. No matter how well you defend, and Ristolainen is a mediocre defender, it is losing hockey.



You know, I earlier explained to you why per/60 is better. You see, Provorov has played 278.06 of ice time at 5 on 5. Ristolainen has played 237.42. Also Provorov has played on the top pair all season while Ristolainen has not. What happened in Buffalo when they used Ristolainen on a top pairing? Disaster.

Provorov 1.51 GA/60

Ristolainen 1.77 GA/60

- MJL

This does NOT explain why the XGA is better for Risto .. that has nothing to do with minutes played!
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Nov 22 @ 3:20 PM ET


For me, I enjoy playing, watching the game and formulating my own opinion about a player. I don’t need to use outdated corsi metrics or analytics to judge a player. I think analytics have their place. I do, but there is a reason why scouts are in the crowd. Human beings using theirs eyes and intellect to judge players. Ya see, if analytics were that important those scouts would be unemployed, now wouldn’t they?

- Joe Nardone


No they wouldn't. You know why? Because "that important " is not the same thing as "the only thing important." Nobody has claimed it is.

No offense my man, but your post was absolute nonsense. You gave a whole bunch of vignettes, and then claimed analytics would never capture the effects of the intimidation. You never explained why it wouldn't.

Consider football: does the fear of a hard hitting free safety often lead to receivers looking back and taking their eyes off the ball and dropping passes? Ofc it does. Does a qb whose line protection is breaking down often get happy feet and get rid off the ball a tad too quickly? Ofc he does.

All that shows up in the football stats (drops/incompletes/qb ratinggs/YAC etc.). I used football becase the cause-effect there is more easily understood. But all these intimidation effects you spoke off should show up in the hockey analytics as well.

If they don't, I am very sorry to tell you this, but that monster exists only in your mind.
RustyPipes
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Williamsburg, VA
Joined: 03.09.2018

Nov 22 @ 3:22 PM ET
Risto...is good? Or is it just Sanheim is a superstar and propping him up
- ClaudeFather


Hard to say, but I will say that Sanheim's breakout passes aren't a thing to be desired. He's always seems to be in too much of a hurry to send it backhand around the board without thinking twice and the puck ends up being picked off and remains in the zone. He does skate well though.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Nov 22 @ 3:26 PM ET
Hayes week to week

Allison skates and Foerster out 5 months

then beat goes on


Point out indefinite for Tampa

- wcorvette

Another prospect we will be talking about in 5 years and he’ll be given the he missed time treatment .
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Nov 22 @ 3:27 PM ET
This does NOT explain why the XGA is better for Risto .. that has nothing to do with minutes played!
- jd250



Why do you say that? Suppose Risto plays just 1 shift in a game, team gives up 1 long range low danger shot during that shift, then he gets injured.

What will Risto's XGA be? It will be 0.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Nov 22 @ 3:27 PM ET
Hard to say, but I will say that Sanheim's breakout passes aren't a thing to be desired. He's always seems to be in too much of a hurry to send it backhand around the board without thinking twice and the puck ends up being picked off and remains in the zone. He does skate well though.
- RustyPipes

I like Sanheim but he is what he is. Some folks thinks he’s gods gift and others think he’s the worst Dman on the team. Not the same exact player but he’s kind of like braydon Coburn
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Nov 22 @ 3:30 PM ET
Sort of, i am that monster
- THE BLACK HAND


I knew I had seen you around town.


SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Nov 22 @ 3:34 PM ET
No one won this trade
- ClaudeFather

We gained heavy salary for the next 6 years. Nashville didn’t. You can tell yourself anything you want. Oh, like how much more amazing Laughton is than Brassard. Geez man, why would anyone listen to you?
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Nov 22 @ 3:35 PM ET
What happened in Buffalo when they used Ristolainen on a top pairing? Disaster.


- MJL


The unusual thing about Risto's stats in Buffalo is this: there is just too much evidence that his problems were not caused by being on a bad team or having to play top line minutes where he was miscast.
Bendecko
Location: Cave Putorium
Joined: 02.29.2020

Nov 22 @ 3:37 PM ET
Posting the following purely for entertainment value:



From: @IneffectiveMath (Twitter) on 2:30 PM ET, Nov 21, 2021
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Nov 22 @ 3:39 PM ET
I've seen three games in person already this season and he most certainly does. I also notice that much of it are things you don't see on camera from the TV. Much of it is away from the play.

Other than that point, you and I are pretty much in agreement as to what kind of player Ristolainen is.

- MBFlyerfan



I see. I used to notice that on TV when he was on BUF, so even with that criticism, there has perhaps been some improvement.

I am not very qualified to comment, as I have missed a large chunk of the season, and seen only the past couple of games, but he does look to be playing much more controlled hockey than he did in BUF. But I could be totally wrong.

BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Nov 22 @ 3:47 PM ET
Ellis comes back, gets re-injured

Hayes has surgery, needs another surgery just a few months later while not having played a game and then re-injures himself the first game back.

I have 2 questions for the GM:

1. Does anyone running this franchise ever question the team’s trainers and medical personnel?

2. Can you ever just be straight with us regarding injuries? The secrecy is frustrating as hell.

ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Nov 22 @ 4:01 PM ET
We gained heavy salary for the next 6 years. Nashville didn’t. You can tell yourself anything you want. Oh, like how much more amazing Laughton is than Brassard. Geez man, why would anyone listen to you?
- SuperSchennBros

Brassard has filled in very nicely, I still would take Laughton over him, especially moving forward
bradster
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.18.2009

Nov 22 @ 4:23 PM ET
We gained heavy salary for the next 6 years. Nashville didn’t. You can tell yourself anything you want. Oh, like how much more amazing Laughton is than Brassard. Geez man, why would anyone listen to you?
- SuperSchennBros


pretty sure we got a good player back, you think he will be hurt for 6 years because hes been hurt for 10 games now?
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