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Forums :: Blog World :: Kevin Francis: Filip Gustavsson development this season? New HC and GM scenarios!
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Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jan 11 @ 5:15 PM ET
Well, you're assuming that Gustavsson is regarded as one of their top future prospects. They protected him in the Seattle expansion draft, but that just means they liked his age/potential upside more than Murray/Forsberg/Daccord. He stood on his head for a couple of games, but the lack of consistency in his play is reminiscent of both Forsberg/Hogberg, which means he could just be the next guy in line to not be the full solution in goal. By most objective standards, Sogaard looks more like a potential future #1G, plus he's a guy they actively traded up for in the 2nd round of the 2019 draft. Not to mention that Gustavsson's contract sets him up to be bounced around between the AHL/NHL this year, and COVID protocols may have played a role in how they could manage player transfers back to the AHL. Regardless, they clearly feel he's better off playing back in the AHL now, so we'll see what happens.
- khawk


True, but he's a 3rd year pro and has more exp. So at this point, he is the future, could that change in a year or two, sure it can. But in my eyes the inconsistency with Gus is due to what is in front of him on defense. How many times did he bail out the defense from their mistakes. Plus he was the one playing most of the games when covid hit the team and were playing with half an AHL line up!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jan 11 @ 5:28 PM ET
Gustavsson is a weird prospect to me. I like his potential, but I tend to agree there isn’t a super clear development line for him. Even Hogberg got the benefit of the doubt to run with the net at the NHL level after very mediocre AHL years. Unsurprisingly, can’t get a job in North America.

While you have to give Murray some benefit of the doubt to play games mainly due to the contract, Forsberg resigning was strange considering Gustavsson looked poised to take the back up role. Inadvertently, there is a log jam.

While Gus the Bus had some nice games where he was solid. A sub .900 save percentage won’t do you many favors. I don’t think many will disagree that Forsberg has been the best of the 3 goalies. It certainly not Vezina like results, but of all the goalies he has had the best results.

In every rebuild, some old prospects get passed by new prospects. You must wonder if this is happening soon with the goalies. Sogaard is looking like a promising goalie by most accounts followed by Mandolese and Merilainen. While I hated the 3rd round pick of an unranked goalie in the 2020 draft of Merilainen, he is looking poised to be a solid professional hockey goalie.

- Gord_Wilson_2.0


Forsberg was the beneficiary of having a full line up in front of him, not half an AHL line up like Gus had to deal with, plus players admitting they quit on the coach in the Vancouver home game.....he kept the team in so many games that they had no business being in, recall that Dallas game....many others...bottom line is....Gus is a 3rd year pro and the others are all still projects as they haven't played at the NHL level. If we were to compare save % etc...the others arent posting big numbers in Belleville either. Both of those goalies have been pulled twice each that I know of in the last month or so. For me, right now Gus is the top prospect, but the others could surpass him down the road. As for Levi, young....off to a good start in North America in his first year. Lets see how he develops each year.

Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Jan 11 @ 5:34 PM ET
I was surprised to hear Dean Brown the play by play guy today, say that Heatherington brings more to the line up than Brown with the physicality and cant understand why Brown is in the line up!
- Kevin Francis

I'm not that surprised... Dean Brown actually watches the games. If you do that, it becomes relatively clear relatively quickly that Heatherington is more effective at playing a physical style at NHL-pace than Brown is. However, that only matters if ice time is consistently earned by merit. The problem with Smith is that he's more of an idealogue... once he's got "his guy" playing "his style", it gets checked off in his mind as fine, regardless of the actual game outcome. And given that Josh Brown was the captain of his Memorial Cup-winning team in Oshawa, you can believe there's quite a bit of personal loyalty going on there.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jan 11 @ 5:36 PM ET
DJ Smith has been the HC for 158 of those games, in which he's won 57 for a .360 winning %!!! Yikes!!!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jan 11 @ 5:42 PM ET
I'm not that surprised... Dean Brown actually watches the games. If you do that, it becomes relatively clear relatively quickly that Heatherington is more effective at playing a physical style at NHL-pace than Brown is. The problem with Smith is that he's more of an idealogue... once he's got "his guy" playing "his style", it gets checked off in his mind as fine, regardless of the actual game outcome. And given that Josh Brown was the captain of his Memorial Cup-winning team in Oshawa, you can believe there's quite a bit of personal loyalty going on there.
- khawk


Yes well said, DJ operates that way, you are either his guy or you're not.....JBrown is one of his boys, Colin White clearly isn't, Logan Brown wasn't....I have doubts about Brannstrom too.....anyways, you nailed it though with DJ, he operates one way and wont change his opinion no matter what the results say! Which is why so many media in this town are crying for upper management to sit him down and knock some sense into him. One moment he says they are going full youth movement, the next he's saying you win as the starting goalie and you are in. Then PD says the same thing on air too in a TV interview, both sides need to get on the same page man. If any outsider can see it, why on earth doesn't someone sit DJ down and lay it out for him. Which is why DJ not having AHL or NHL headcoaching exp. is an issue with him.


sens4life1971
Ottawa Senators
Location: smiths falls, ON
Joined: 02.16.2014

Jan 11 @ 6:15 PM ET
I saw DJ's comments today, man this guy thinks because he clears the front of the net that Brown should be in the lineup! OMG! How about he handles the puck like grenade and has no foot speed! Poor Brannstrom is going to be stuck with that dead wood, my goodness, talk about lowering the value of another prospect. Set up the prospect for success not for failure.
- Kevin Francis


Josh Brown 13games 0pts -5
Heatherington 20games 2pts +6

Please don’t compare the 2 one can actually do the job
Ya can’t have all puck moving Defence ya need them physical partners to help the puck movers
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jan 11 @ 7:27 PM ET
Josh Brown 13games 0pts -5
Heatherington 20games 2pts +6

Please don’t compare the 2 one can actually do the job
Ya can’t have all puck moving Defence ya need them physical partners to help the puck movers

- sens4life1971


I actually agree with you, I'm saying that Brown commits far too many mistakes on the wall or in front of the net, trying to clear the puck due to his foot speed. Id rather have Heatherington paired with Brannstrom. I didn't realize the difference in stats. When Dean Brown is on air saying how he doesn't feel JBrown should be in the line up over Heatherington, that says a lot as Dean is pretty much a guy who doesn't rock the boat. But he's one of the few that sees every game and practice, where players stand etc...its just too bad Brannstrom is paired with such a liability in his own end.
sens4life1971
Ottawa Senators
Location: smiths falls, ON
Joined: 02.16.2014

Jan 11 @ 8:31 PM ET
I actually agree with you, I'm saying that Brown commits far too many mistakes on the wall or in front of the net, trying to clear the puck due to his foot speed. Id rather have Heatherington paired with Brannstrom. I didn't realize the difference in stats. When Dean Brown is on air saying how he doesn't feel JBrown should be in the line up over Heatherington, that says a lot as Dean is pretty much a guy who doesn't rock the boat. But he's one of the few that sees every game and practice, where players stand etc...its just too bad Brannstrom is paired with such a liability in his own end.
- Kevin Francis


Yeah 💯 agree with Brown he’s a joke do ya think they are just playing him to raise his value which is t very much maybe a 4th-7th pick 🤷‍♂️😂
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jan 11 @ 10:54 PM ET
Tim Stutzle in covid protocol!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jan 11 @ 10:55 PM ET
Duchene had 2 more goals tonight, including the OT winner! Boro got hurt bad in the 2nd period on the Avs 2nd goal.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jan 11 @ 10:55 PM ET
Yeah 💯 agree with Brown he’s a joke do ya think they are just playing him to raise his value which is t very much maybe a 4th-7th pick 🤷‍♂️😂
- sens4life1971


I truly don't know what team would be willing to give Ottawa anything for him. I say put him on waivers and hope you don't have to pay his salary the rest of the year, is the best case scenario!
sens4life1971
Ottawa Senators
Location: smiths falls, ON
Joined: 02.16.2014

Jan 11 @ 11:25 PM ET
I truly don't know what team would be willing to give Ottawa anything for him. I say put him on waivers and hope you don't have to pay his salary the rest of the year, is the best case scenario!
- Kevin Francis


Yep no one will claim him tho 🤦‍♂️
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jan 12 @ 5:43 AM ET
Heard some team gossip yesterday. I have no confirmation of what I was told is true. But, the information swirling around this team does trigger some obvious simple questions that are directly tied to the current speculation and gossip?

Is Melnyk out of cash?

Will he miss making front office payroll at the end of this month?

Has the NHL refused to extend the guarantee of his credit line?

Have other team owners and Bettman formally advised Melnyk... "enough, no more!"

Are Melnyk's lenders refusing any renegotiations of the team debt?

Have not heard anyone talk specially about a debt restructuring under the Company Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAC). This would allow for the simultaneous sale of the team and the restructing of the debt. CCAC is the mechanism that would make the most sense to get this mess finally settled.

No confirmation on any of these rumours but there is a wicked amount of smoke filled chatter blowing around the Canadian Tire Centre.

Octavarium
New York Islanders
Joined: 01.03.2007

Jan 12 @ 7:14 AM ET
He's clearly going to play Brown... though if that gets Brannstrom in the lineup, then maybe it's really just at the expense of Heatherington (who's quietly been half-decent in the role of a #6 physical D).
- khawk




This is turning into a Money Ball scene with Pena and Hattaberg.
Dorion is going to have to trade J.Brown (pena) or we're gonna keep seeing him in the line up.
Gord_Wilson_2.0
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.11.2011

Jan 12 @ 8:57 AM ET
Forsberg was the beneficiary of having a full line up in front of him, not half an AHL line up like Gus had to deal with, plus players admitting they quit on the coach in the Vancouver home game.....he kept the team in so many games that they had no business being in, recall that Dallas game....many others...bottom line is....Gus is a 3rd year pro and the others are all still projects as they haven't played at the NHL level. If we were to compare save % etc...the others arent posting big numbers in Belleville either. Both of those goalies have been pulled twice each that I know of in the last month or so. For me, right now Gus is the top prospect, but the others could surpass him down the road. As for Levi, young....off to a good start in North America in his first year. Lets see how he develops each year.
- Kevin Francis

Goalies are such wild cards, it’s hard for me to fired up about Gus the Bus. I do agree he has had the tougher games from a whole view of the season and it’s hard to get on a roll with inconsistent play time. Much like the some of the weird veteran signings/trades that have occurred on forward and defense resigning Forsberg was a silly move if they wanted Gus to get playing time.

Hopefully he gets some reps in the AHL and gets back on track.
Bartacus
Ottawa Senators
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 01.08.2019

Jan 12 @ 10:40 AM ET
If Ottawa doesn't put a claim in on Rem Pitlick, there's something in the water.
Gord_Wilson_2.0
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.11.2011

Jan 12 @ 11:28 AM ET
If Ottawa doesn't put a claim in on Rem Pitlick, there's something in the water.
- Bartacus

He meets the local, ex NHLer players son prerequisite.
Bartacus
Ottawa Senators
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 01.08.2019

Jan 12 @ 11:58 AM ET
He meets the local, ex NHLer players son prerequisite.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0


Precisely. Succinctly put.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Jan 12 @ 1:33 PM ET
This is turning into a Money Ball scene with Pena and Hattaberg. Dorion is going to have to trade J.Brown (pena) or we're gonna keep seeing him in the line up.
- Octavarium

Funny, that's exactly what I was going to say yesterday, comparing this to the Pena/Hatteberg situation in Moneyball. The problem, of course, is that the guy who's supposed to be playing the role of Billy Beane is just as much of a compulsive "big-body" idealogue as the coach. So we're likely positioned once again to watch the team steadily improve over the course of the year as those useless players are eventually lost to trade, just in time to spoil their draft position with a late run of meaningless wins in an otherwise lost season.

Meanwhile, The Hockey Writers just released their top-100 prospects, and Jake Sanderson came in at #4. Shane Pinto was listed at #23, Ridly Greig at #58, and Jacob Bernard-Docker at #66. Personally, I think Lassi Thomson should have made that list, but the rankings gets highly speculative after ~80.

https://thehockeywriters....op-100-prospects-ranking/

Not to mention that even at something like #26 they have Mavrik Bourque listed, and go on to state that "he should develop into a top-9 forward". So that's not exactly an overwhelming expectation for a 1st round pick from a very strong draft class, who they feel is one of the top-20 forward prospects in the world.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jan 12 @ 2:26 PM ET
He meets the local, ex NHLer players son prerequisite.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0


MTL beat them to it as they had a shot at him before Ottawa. Brothers reunited!

https://www.tsn.ca/rem-pi...-minnesota-wild-1.1744744
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jan 12 @ 2:27 PM ET
This is turning into a Money Ball scene with Pena and Hattaberg.
Dorion is going to have to trade J.Brown (pena) or we're gonna keep seeing him in the line up.

- Octavarium


Very true! I'm not sure who said it in here months ago, but its like a kid, take away his toys scenario. In this case, PD needs to do as you said, trade, put him on waivers and if he clears just send him down like they did with MDZ, Brown makes half of what MDZ did.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jan 12 @ 2:28 PM ET
Goalies are such wild cards, it’s hard for me to fired up about Gus the Bus. I do agree he has had the tougher games from a whole view of the season and it’s hard to get on a roll with inconsistent play time. Much like the some of the weird veteran signings/trades that have occurred on forward and defense resigning Forsberg was a silly move if they wanted Gus to get playing time.

Hopefully he gets some reps in the AHL and gets back on track.

- Gord_Wilson_2.0


I thnk he will be just fine, he was great here to end the season last year and if he had of got the support Forsberg got, he would probably be still playing here. A nice run of games in the AHL will do him good for his development. He needs to be playing games.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jan 12 @ 2:30 PM ET
Yep no one will claim him tho 🤦‍♂️
- sens4life1971


Like I just mentioned in another reply, let him clear waivers and send him to Belleville, he is done with this team in 53 games worst case scenario, but I would rather him down with this team and finishing the season in Belleville, not at the expense of youth on the blueline here in Ottawa.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jan 12 @ 2:33 PM ET
Funny, that's exactly what I was going to say yesterday, comparing this to the Pena/Hatteberg situation in Moneyball. The problem, of course, is that the guy who's supposed to be playing the role of Billy Beane is just as much of a compulsive "big-body" idealogue as the coach. So we're likely positioned once again to watch the team steadily improve over the course of the year as those useless players are eventually lost to trade, just in time to spoil their draft position with a late run of meaningless wins in an otherwise lost season.

Meanwhile, The Hockey Writers just released their top-100 prospects, and Jake Sanderson came in at #4. Shane Pinto was listed at #23, Ridly Greig at #58, and Jacob Bernard-Docker at #66. Personally, I think Lassi Thomson should have made that list, but the rankings gets highly speculative after ~80.

https://thehockeywriters....op-100-prospects-ranking/

Not to mention that even at something like #26 they have Mavrik Bourque listed, and go on to state that "he should develop into a top-9 forward". So that's not exactly an overwhelming expectation for a 1st round pick from a very strong draft class, who they feel is one of the top-20 forward prospects in the world.

- khawk


Very interesting stuff. Greig is going to be interesting next season. How does camp and pre-season go for him? Does he start the year here no matter what or can he handle a full NHL season with his size in his rookie year? But you nailed it on Bourque, odd ranking for a kid they perceive to have a high ceiling, yet they say top 9 forward, like what is it going to be? Pinto at 23 is a point of discussion. I wonder if he attains 2C status here or the Sens just let him develop and grow in the 3C spot.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jan 12 @ 3:08 PM ET
Heard some team gossip yesterday. I have no confirmation of what I was told is true. But, the information swirling around this team does trigger some obvious simple questions that are directly tied to the current speculation and gossip?

Is Melnyk out of cash?

Will he miss making front office payroll at the end of this month?

Has the NHL refused to extend the guarantee of his credit line?

Have other team owners and Bettman formally advised Melnyk... "enough, no more!"

Are Melnyk's lenders refusing any renegotiations of the team debt?

Have not heard anyone talk specially about a debt restructuring under the Company Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAC). This would allow for the simultaneous sale of the team and the restructing of the debt. CCAC is the mechanism that would make the most sense to get this mess finally settled.

No confirmation on any of these rumours but there is a wicked amount of smoke filled chatter blowing around the Canadian Tire Centre.

- spatso


I will comment on this more later, as you know I can only say so much in regards to EM on just a legal level, we don't need the website or myself having EM coming after us legally if I was to post a blog on his finance situation etc....but I did talk about on Twitter the last 2 nights about how EM is closer than he ever was to selling the team. I had Bruce Firestone like my 2 tweets about it......so that tells you a lot for one of the original owners to follow me and like my 2 tweets on the ownership stuff. I will post the tweets in here later as I'm on break at work.
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