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Forums :: Blog World :: Theo Fox: Cavalry Corps
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Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Jan 12 @ 4:15 PM ET
I say this without false self depricating humor, I am not smart enough to be a fancy stat guy but also believe as an NHL manager you can't survive without the fancies. ..... Sure the public sees corsi, shot share and xGF% but to achieve those numbers a true fancy stater has 64 indicator fancies that got a player to those numbers. My pickled mind is out of its league with a hard core fancy stater like LBR.

I'll share something some might find useful. I was given a game report from SPORTLOGiQ of a USHL game. SPORTLOGiQ is a service that provides mind numbing stats of a hockey game. I'm told it is extremely expensive by an employee of a USHL team.

There has to be 150 stats at least in this game report. To name just a few of them ES (even strength) screened shots on goal, ES shots on goal with no pressure and with pressure, ES shots from the top of the circle off the cycle, ES Dzone middle ice pass preventions, ES dump ins recovered, ES rim dump ins right side recovered, ES rim dump ins left side recovered, soft dump ins recovered, cross ice dump ins recovered, cross ice Dzone dump recovery and exit success %, ES same side breakout %, 1-2-3 pass breakout %, SOG on net against that were screened %, opposition SOG that were recovered and on and on, 150ish minute stats.

Didn't change my world but having heard that each team has their "own" set of stats for yrs but until I saw this game report I had no idea, and this is jrs!!

I'd imagine NHL organIzations are much more extensive that a crew of pointy heads scrub then enter the stats into software made just for them that all the hockey people evaluate. Each team has different systems so some stats mean little to a run and gun squad but mean everything to a trapping/counter attack club and vice versa.

As an old guy the eye test will always be my go to but I have embraced basic fancies to supplement the eye test but as that game report showed me there are some stats collected I had no idea were stats. ..... Sheds a whole new light on the game for me at a bunch of different levels.

- Mr Ricochet


These advanced stats are a good SUPPLEMENT to actual eyes and scouting. LBR was really good at explaining the context in which they were used and when/where to utilize certain numbers. She was also very clear on the my first sentence.

There is a reason that most NHL players roll their eyes when someone brings up Corsi or whatever else. Taken by itself, each individual stat is almost meaningless.

I actually like King's "advanced stats". Basically, if what you do on the ice creates a positive outcome, you get a plus. If what you do creates a negative outcome, you get a minus. It is a bit more nuanced than that, but not by a lot.
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Jan 12 @ 4:16 PM ET
You can bet teams will target Galvas in upcoming games. He did play well for sure.
- Elbows15

No doubt and the better he plays the harder they’ll play him.

There is one other thing he can do, what I was taught when I was 12. When a guy lines you up bring your stick up and let him run into it before he hits you.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jan 12 @ 4:16 PM ET


I am not a "point A to B" guy. If you're gonna hire a coach it should be done with the hope that they are the proper person to lead to the pinnacle, not as a placeholder. F the A to B, B to C. I want the A to C guy.

- TheTrob


But you would admit coaches have strengths and weaknesses? For instance maybe Q wouldn't be the pick to guide a club thru a rebuild? ..... But yes, ideally you hire a coach to go thru the rebuild and win a cup but not sure how many instances there are of that. I guess one would argue Q did taking the club over in the 08/09 season.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Jan 12 @ 4:17 PM ET
You can bet teams will target Galvas in upcoming games. He did play well for sure.
- Elbows15


Did Columbus not target him yesterday? I would imagine they would have knowing that he was brand new.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Jan 12 @ 4:22 PM ET
On record as not being a Boqvist guy from before they even drafted him. To me he was a low floor 50 pt ceiling defensive liability who will always need to be sheltered. Remember though before his draft yr he was talked about as a top 5 pick by most prognosticators then had a poor season his draft yr.

Is this the first time you saw the Svede in a full game this yr, LA? You would admit he's much better this yr in the eye test? Bigger, thicker, less panicky, some poise and confidence, the game has slowed down for him? ....... Amazing what proper slotting/placement/system/expectations/usage can do for an NHL player let alone a developing prospect.

CLB has positioned him to succeed CHI to fail. This must stop if the Hawks will ever be a threat especially without a 1st rd pick this yr.

Boqvist is shooting 24%, his secondary assist percentage is a crazy 85% (McDavid type superstar number), 63% Ozone start, 17:00 TOI putting him on a 48 point pace. Those sheltered numbers are way unsustainable but he has a solid 51.7 CF% and a 51.7 xGF% at 5 on 5, again proper slotting and usage.

Assuming he stays healthy and CLB continues to slot and use him him properly he looks to reach his probable ceiling of being a sheltered defensive liability that hits 50ish pts. A useful player but the kind I'd rather pass on for a Dobson type. ........

A matter of preference but besides this kid was poorly developed and as a 7th overall should have, no, would have, brought more back in a trade had he been properly developed.

- Mr Ricochet

Dobson is going to be around for 15 seasons in the NHL and plays under a coach who will make him an all round piece on the Islanders back end who can do everything you need out an NHL defenceman. I wanted the Hawks to take him too because he was the perfect replacement for Seabrook.

Nothing against Bovqist, but when he was drafted they already had the small, offensive Dmen covered in Krys, Mitchell, Galvas. And then they took Beaudin in the same draft.

Would be interesting to know what Dale Hunter thought about Bovqist as a player in general especially since he also had Evan Bouchard on the team who went 2 picks later. The kid was rushed in the Hawks system, a typical Stan Bowman move. Hope it works out for him in Columbus.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Jan 12 @ 4:23 PM ET
From John Dietz:

Patrick Kane's career shooting percentage is 11.7%
He connected a career low 7.9% last season
This season is even worse, 6.1%

That ranks 257th out of 293 forwards who have taken at least 40 shots on goal.

- scottak


From Pope:
"I felt like there’s been numerous times where could’ve cashed in and scored goals and had chances to do so. It's frustrating when you feel that’s a strong part of your game and it’s not a part that’s working for you."

He insisted again his nagging injury isn't inhibiting him.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Jan 12 @ 4:24 PM ET
Yes, that seems to have been the rationale, but also that King is hoping that plan doesn't change if, for example, Reichel lights it up in NHL.
- pdx2ord


From Pope:
King on Reichel plan: "He’s obviously one of our highly skilled prospects coming up, and we want to do it right. There’s been years of seeing players get called up early, started too early, and they don’t end up finishing with your team... The process is going to be key."
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Jan 12 @ 4:39 PM ET
Dobson is going to be around for 15 seasons in the NHL and plays under a coach who will make him an all round piece on the Islanders back end who can do everything you need out an NHL defenceman. I wanted the Hawks to take him too because he was the perfect replacement for Seabrook.

Nothing against Bovqist, but when he was drafted they already had the small, offensive Dmen covered in Krys, Mitchell, Galvas. And then they took Beaudin in the same draft.

Would be interesting to know what Dale Hunter thought about Bovqist as a player in general especially since he also had Evan Bouchard on the team who went 2 picks later. The kid was rushed in the Hawks system, a typical Stan Bowman move. Hope it works out for him in Columbus.

- RickJ


They also had drafted Jokiharju just the year prior. I think they were just trying to draft as many D-men as possible hoping to hit on a couple.
scottak
Location: I am serious. And don't call me Shirley!
Joined: 08.06.2010

Jan 12 @ 4:54 PM ET
Tweeted (twat?) by Pope:

Galvas' 23:40 TOI in his 1st game was the most by a Blackhawk skater in their 1st NHL game since Duncan Keith logged 24:18 in his debut vs. Anaheim on October 5, 2005

So, there's that.
6628
Joined: 08.24.2009

Jan 12 @ 4:56 PM ET
No doubt and the better he plays the harder they’ll play him.

There is one other thing he can do, what I was taught when I was 12. When a guy lines you up bring your stick up and let him run into it before he hits you.

- paulr



That's the way I was taught
pdx2ord
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Portland, OR
Joined: 09.02.2015

Jan 12 @ 5:25 PM ET
From Pope:
King on Reichel plan: "He’s obviously one of our highly skilled prospects coming up, and we want to do it right. There’s been years of seeing players get called up early, started too early, and they don’t end up finishing with your team... The process is going to be key."

- Chunk


Excellent - I like hearing that from him. Really hope Davidson is on that same page. No reason (yet) to think he's not.
35Tony0
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Springfield, IL
Joined: 05.10.2015

Jan 12 @ 6:35 PM ET
If you're Reichel and you just got AHL Player Of the Week, your first couple games in the NHL is just plain good positive reinforcement.
I hope he gets 9 NHL games between now and April, does well, and becomes a permanent NHLer come October. Blackhawks need top 6 talent.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Jan 12 @ 6:41 PM ET
Tweeted (twat?) by Pope:

Galvas' 23:40 TOI in his 1st game was the most by a Blackhawk skater in their 1st NHL game since Duncan Keith logged 24:18 in his debut vs. Anaheim on October 5, 2005

So, there's that.

- scottak


So it's guarantee that Galvas will be a multi-Norris winning, Conn Smythe winning, 3 time Cup champion.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jan 12 @ 6:52 PM ET
No doubt and the better he plays the harder they’ll play him.

There is one other thing he can do, what I was taught when I was 12. When a guy lines you up bring your stick up and let him run into it before he hits you.

- paulr

Can't do that anymore. NGL, I was impressed with his composure on the ice last night.
He is a bit older and has a few years of playing against men so he should be able to protect himself fairly well.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jan 12 @ 6:53 PM ET
If you're Reichel and you just got AHL Player Of the Week, your first couple games in the NHL is just plain good positive reinforcement.
I hope he gets 9 NHL games between now and April, does well, and becomes a permanent NHLer come October. Blackhawks need top 6 talent.

- 35Tony0

Imagine having a couple of top 15 draft choices to help with that.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jan 12 @ 6:55 PM ET
Excellent - I like hearing that from him. Really hope Davidson is on that same page. No reason (yet) to think he's not.
- pdx2ord

Kd has a 7 month interview for the job permanently. He can really put a stamp on his qualifications at the TDL.

He has to move out some flotsam. I just hope his list is close to mine. lol
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Jan 12 @ 7:10 PM ET
Kd has a 7 month interview for the job permanently. He can really put a stamp on his qualifications at the TDL.

He has to move out some flotsam. I just hope his list is close to mine. lol

- Elbows15


Let's see:
Smith already gone.
Lehner already gone.
Carpenter contract expiring.
Gus expiring.
Moving S. Jones is going to be a big ask.
What else you want?
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Jan 12 @ 7:17 PM ET
Kd has a 7 month iynterview for the job permanently. He can really put a stamp on his qualifications at the TDL.

He has to move out some flotsam. I just hope his list is close to mine. lol

- Elbows15


I bet Carpenter and Strome are on his list, too.

Guessing that Seth Jones is not on The Kid's list.
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Jan 12 @ 7:46 PM ET
Let's see:
Smith already gone.
Lehner already gone.
Carpenter contract expiring.
Gus expiring.
Moving S. Jones is going to be a big ask.
What else you want?

- Chunk


I'm guessing deHaan, Strome and Khaira are also on the list...and Fleury.
GPHawksfan
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: AB
Joined: 01.26.2018

Jan 12 @ 7:47 PM ET
I hope he struggles. Mainly because there is no reason to start the clock on his ELC for this season.
- Elbows15[/qu
Only a loser would think this way, which you continually show yourself to be. If he can play in the NHL he can play in the nhl. And if they do better Columbus's pick becomes worse
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Jan 12 @ 7:51 PM ET
Can't do that anymore. NGL, I was impressed with his composure on the ice last night.
He is a bit older and has a few years of playing against men so he should be able to protect himself fairly well.

- Elbows15


I’ll remind Marchand to keep his stick and elbows lower.

Galvas did look pretty good last night. Confident but didn’t try to overplay the puck which some younger guys can tend to do.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jan 12 @ 8:57 PM ET
[quote=Elbows15]I hope he struggles. Mainly because there is no reason to start the clock on his ELC for this season.
- GPHawksfan[/qu
Only a loser would think this way, which you continually show yourself to be. If he can play in the NHL he can play in the nhl. And if they do better Columbus's pick becomes worse

No milk and cookies tonight, huh?
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jan 12 @ 8:59 PM ET
Let's see:
Smith already gone.
Lehner already gone.
Carpenter contract expiring.
Gus expiring.
Moving S. Jones is going to be a big ask.
What else you want?

- Chunk

Carpenter
Khaira
deHaan
McCabe
Jones brothers
Lafferty
Gabriel
Strome

and anyone else someone is willing to give up assets to acquire.
scottak
Location: I am serious. And don't call me Shirley!
Joined: 08.06.2010

Jan 12 @ 9:11 PM ET
So it's guarantee that Galvas will be a multi-Norris winning, Conn Smythe winning, 3 time Cup champion.
- DarthKane

That’s the way I read it!
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Jan 12 @ 9:25 PM ET
Let's see:
Smith already gone.
Lehner already gone.
Carpenter contract expiring.
Gus expiring.
Moving S. Jones is going to be a big ask.
What else you want?

- Chunk


Kubalik
DeBrincat
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