Hmm let me see...

1. If I go to Vegas on Foley's private jet, and win the cup, possible Conn Smythe, I could go to HOF.

2. Or I could stay in the area and not want to change babysitters for my 2.5 year old and my 0.5 year old sons.

That's it. It's #2. Am not changing babysitters.
- PT21

How about #3? Giroux chooses where he is willing to go and stays on the east coast.

How about #4. Giroux goes out West and leaves family at home.

Watching King Henrik jersey to the rafters ceremony. One Stanley Cup appearance with such a legendary great goalie! Flyers got to 2010 final with AHL goaltending! The irony! 🤣

Hedman is also 31 years old.

Flyers have Provorov who is still 25 years old and Couturier who has played up to the standard of a #1 C.

There is no such thing as pieces you cant trade for. Any player has a price. NSH got Forsberg for Erat as a FA, NYR got Panarin from FA, Zibanejad for Brassard, Fox for a 2nd round pick. No Organization is perfect. Players are always over valued or misjudged. Flyers need to do a better job of evaluating talent and utilizing their strengths
- xShoot4WarAmpsx

Many things are equal in possibility (you can draft or trade for your studs). But do they turn out to be equal in reality? How likely is one route versus the other?

If you look at the leaders in icetime for forwards and dmen for the SC winners post lockout, you get an idea of the relative likelihoods. 16 teams have won cup since then, so 32 names.

# of those 32 names that were not drafted by the team that won cup: Hedican, Niedermayer, Gonchar, Chara, Dumouiln (Letang injured), ROR.

Six out of 32 names (would havebeen 5 but for injury. And btw, all but 1 Dmen, just a single forward).

EDIT: Beauchemin

Many things are equal in possibility (you can draft or trade for your studs). But do they turn out to be equal in reality? How likely is one route versus the other?

If you look at the leaders in icetime for forwards and dmen for the SC winners post lockout, you get an idea of the relative likelihoods. 16 teams have won cup since then, so 32 names.

# of those 32 names that were not drafted by the team that won cup: Hedican, Niedermayer, Gonchar, Chara, Dumouiln (Letang injured), ROR.

Six out of 32 names (would havebeen 5 but for injury. And btw, all but 1 Dmen, just a single forward).



EDIT: Beauchemin
- PT21

To be a fair representation, it should also look at the losing team in the finals. They were also teams that were capable of winning. Classic case of narrowing the scope.

I really hope Fletcher was able to make friends and future loyal Minions for his next job.

Hedman is also 31 years old.

Flyers have Provorov who is still 25 years old and Couturier who has played up to the standard of a #1 C.

There is no such thing as pieces you cant trade for. Any player has a price. NSH got Forsberg for Erat as a FA, NYR got Panarin from FA, Zibanejad for Brassard, Fox for a 2nd round pick. No Organization is perfect. Players are always over valued or misjudged. Flyers need to do a better job of evaluating talent and utilizing their strengths
- xShoot4WarAmpsx

Bro…I don’t think the capitals knew what they were trading away in forsberg.

When Horses were dying in droves at Santa Anita racetrack, they did a complete analysis of the complete composition of the surface determining it needed to be changed.
Not so many horses suffering catastrophic injuries since.

The ice composition is the issue.
I'm not an ice scientist I stayed at a Holiday inn express.
- konalover711

Lol that's a good one. Ice composition? It's freaking water and cold. Do you not know the recipe. BTW, I am an "ice scientist". I've made ice on 7 different rinks. A least one a year from concrete ( or sand) up.
WATER AND COLD!!@

To be a fair representation, it should also look at the losing team in the finals. They were also teams that were capable of winning. Classic case of narrowing the scope.
- MJL

Completely disagree. This is how teams justify mediocre rosters thinking they have a chance because Montreal wins a few rounds and the gets smoked out of the finals never to be seen from again. Same with the Nashville. Same with the Rangers. Same with the Devils. All those teams were pretty non competitive in finals. Luck wears out really quick the farther you go in the playoffs.

Completely disagree. This is how teams justify mediocre rosters thinking they have a chance because Montreal wins a few rounds and the gets smoked out of the finals never to be seen from again. Same with the Nashville. Same with the Rangers. Same with the Devils. All those teams were pretty non competitive in finals. Luck wears out really quick the farther you go in the playoffs.
- psuhockey

Doesn't seem as though you got the drift of the context of the conversation. For example, Montreal was led in the playoffs by a player named Shea Weber. Who when healthy, throughout his career has been a player who played at a very high level and was a player who had the ability to be the top defenseman on a championship level team. He was not drafted by the Habs. Expanding the scope to include the finalists gives you a wider look. It may wind up being the same overall outcome but at least you have more to consider.

Doesn't seem as though you got the drift of the context of the conversation. For example, Montreal was led in the playoffs by a player named Shea Weber. Who when healthy, throughout his career has been a player who played at a very high level and was a player who had the ability to be the top defenseman on a championship level team. He was not drafted by the Habs. Expanding the scope to include the finalists gives you a wider look. It may wind up being the same overall outcome but at least you have more to consider.
- MJL

The context of the conversation is a teams ability to acquire #1 defensemen and #1 centermen in their prime through trade. He illustrated my point it is very rare and it is. Adding Shea Weber to the list doesn’t make it more common by any statistical stretch. For a simpler exercise just list all of those type of players that have been moved or signed in their mid 20’s in the last decade to get an idea of the lack of movement of these type of players.

Since this is a Flyers board, the point of the discussion is the ridiculous low probability of the Flyers acquiring 2-3 elite pieces in their prime over the next two seasons via trade or free agency. At best there are only 1-2 of these type players available each season and the Flyers will have to acquired 2-3 of them in competition against the other 31 teams who will be trying to do the same thing. That plan also completely ignores that players are making decisions based on lifestyle choices, i.e city life, weather, taxes, where the Philadelphia area doesn’t stand out in anyway and teams seldom have traded these type of elite players within their own conference further limiting the talent pool. The Flyers plan of a retool over the next two seasons without bottoming out has a very low probability of success if measured by building a Stanley Cup winning team and not just squeaking into the last playoff spot and hoping for the best.

The context of the conversation is a teams ability to acquire #1 defensemen and #1 centermen in their prime through trade. He illustrated my point it is very rare and it is. Adding Shea Weber to the list doesn’t make it more common by any statistical stretch. For a simpler exercise just list all of those type of players that have been moved or signed in their mid 20’s in the last decade to get an idea of the lack of movement of these type of players.

Since this is a Flyers board, the point of the discussion is the ridiculous low probability of the Flyers acquiring 2-3 elite pieces in their prime over the next two seasons via trade or free agency. At best there are only 1-2 of these type players available each season and the Flyers will have to acquired 2-3 of them in competition against the other 31 teams who will be trying to do the same thing. That plan also completely ignores that players are making decisions based on lifestyle choices, i.e city life, weather, taxes, where the Philadelphia area doesn’t stand out in anyway and teams seldom have traded these type of elite players within their own conference further limiting the talent pool. The Flyers plan of a retool over the next two seasons without bottoming out has a very low probability of success if measured by building a Stanley Cup winning team and not just squeaking into the last playoff spot and hoping for the best.
- psuhockey

Totallu agree. I will repeat, you need a top 5 pick to win the cup, lots of cup winner teams have had multiple top 5 picks. This is why chucks strategy, whatever that may be is flawed, and the same with Ronnies. you cant win a cup without the top picks of the draft. Maybe we get lucky again and win the lottery, but no one should count on that

The context of the conversation is a teams ability to acquire #1 defensemen and #1 centermen in their prime through trade. He illustrated my point it is very rare and it is. Adding Shea Weber to the list doesn’t make it more common by any statistical stretch. For a simpler exercise just list all of those type of players that have been moved or signed in their mid 20’s in the last decade to get an idea of the lack of movement of these type of players.

Since this is a Flyers board, the point of the discussion is the ridiculous low probability of the Flyers acquiring 2-3 elite pieces in their prime over the next two seasons via trade or free agency. At best there are only 1-2 of these type players available each season and the Flyers will have to acquired 2-3 of them in competition against the other 31 teams who will be trying to do the same thing. That plan also completely ignores that players are making decisions based on lifestyle choices, i.e city life, weather, taxes, where the Philadelphia area doesn’t stand out in anyway and teams seldom have traded these type of elite players within their own conference further limiting the talent pool. The Flyers plan of a retool over the next two seasons without bottoming out has a very low probability of success if measured by building a Stanley Cup winning team and not just squeaking into the last playoff spot and hoping for the best.
- psuhockey

The argument of Shea Weber can indeed be used in support and against the point:

"Look, Habs got Weber via FA, and got to finals!"
"Look, Habs got Weber and still lost!"

The context of the conversation is a teams ability to acquire #1 defensemen and #1 centermen in their prime through trade. He illustrated my point it is very rare and it is. Adding Shea Weber to the list doesn’t make it more common by any statistical stretch. For a simpler exercise just list all of those type of players that have been moved or signed in their mid 20’s in the last decade to get an idea of the lack of movement of these type of players.


- psuhockey

PT21's post looked at the ice time leaders on Cup wining teams post lockout. Expanding the list to include the finalists gives you more data and more info.

Since this is a Flyers board, the point of the discussion is the ridiculous low probability of the Flyers acquiring 2-3 elite pieces in their prime over the next two seasons via trade or free agency. At best there are only 1-2 of these type players available each season and the Flyers will have to acquired 2-3 of them in competition against the other 31 teams who will be trying to do the same thing. That plan also completely ignores that players are making decisions based on lifestyle choices, i.e city life, weather, taxes, where the Philadelphia area doesn’t stand out in anyway and teams seldom have traded these type of elite players within their own conference further limiting the talent pool. The Flyers plan of a retool over the next two seasons without bottoming out has a very low probability of success if measured by building a Stanley Cup winning team and not just squeaking into the last playoff spot and hoping for the best.
- psuhockey

We are in agreement that the Flyers plan and approach outlined at their recent press conference is a pipe dream.

However something that PT21 doesn't seem to get and perhaps you might also in regards to the post that PT21 replied to is the difference between probability and possibility. We can look back through history and see that it does happen.

My contention and overall outlook on the Flyers and the approach they need to take. Is that I think the Flyers are delusional and incompetent for thinking that they can trade and sign their way to the top in a short period of time. While taking that approach could certainly improve the team to the point of being a playoff team. For me personally, the bar is set higher. I won't be satisfied with just that accomplishment.

Well the flyers came in at #13 for prospects rank. This is how Scott Wheeler ranks it
york
brink
Zamula
Frost
forester
andrae
samu
desnoyer
attard
mcclennon
wisdom
kosolov
obrien
lyksell
st ivanny
ersson
ratcliffe

Totallu agree. I will repeat, you need a top 5 pick to win the cup, lots of cup winner teams have had multiple top 5 picks. This is why chucks strategy, whatever that may be is flawed, and the same with Ronnies. you cant win a cup without the top picks of the draft. Maybe we get lucky again and win the lottery, but no one should count on that
- bradster

Its horrible what the following have done together:

Cap: No wholesale signing of FAs.
Guaranteed contracts: can't change course easily once signed.
Revenue sharing: some teams can tank forever and hog the high draft picks and still turn a profit.

1 means by far the best way to get star players is draft high. 2 means if you commit to a certain team you are stuck with consequent draft position for a long time. 3 means big market/cap teams will still compete with several small market teams for high draft positions even in their bad years, which are gonna be rare anyway because of 2.

Its horrible what the following have done together:

Cap: No wholesale signing of FAs.
Guaranteed contracts: can't change course easily once signed.
Revenue sharing: some teams can tank forever and hog the high draft picks and still turn a profit.

1 means by far the best way to get star players is draft high. 2 means if you commit to a certain team you are stuck with consequent draft position for a long time. 3 means big market/cap teams will still compete with several small market teams for high draft positions even in their bad years, which are gonna be rare anyway because of 2.
- PT21

i dont know who the pens GM was when they drafted #1, 2, 1, 2 those four years in a row, but can we hire that guy?

i dont know who the pens GM was when they drafted #1, 2, 1, 2 those four years in a row, but can we hire that guy?
- bradster

Thats the thing. Who gets to be at the top is being determined in large part not by hockey or coaching or even the GM. It's more nature of ownership. Ownership dysfunction followed by new competent ownership = sustained success. Pens, Chicago, Tampa (during the Hedman/Stamkos turmoil).

The incentives are not just leveling the playing field for small market clubs. They are also tilting it towards ownership incompetence.

Bro…I don’t think the capitals knew what they were trading away in forsberg.
- SuperSchennBros

That is my point though. Many teams trade young talent at the TDL not always knowing what they are giving up. GMs are human, they dont know everything and they make mistakes. It is up to Fletcher and his scouts to find those players

That is my point though. Many teams trade young talent at the TDL not always knowing what they are giving up. GMs are human, they dont know everything and they make mistakes. It is up to Fletcher and his scouts to find those players
- xShoot4WarAmpsx

I agree that those deals are out there. Based on his history, I have zero confidence in Fletcher being able to do that.

i dont know who the pens GM was when they drafted #1, 2, 1, 2 those four years in a row, but can we hire that guy?
- bradster

Craig Patrick..who was also responsible for some first round flubs and Free agent flubs as a GM. There was bad blood when he was fired and Ray Shero took over, for a few years.

He was their GM since just before their first cups.. A long run by todays standards..

Malkin waited a year to come over and was playing in the KHL or whatever it was called. Letang was not a first round IIRC.. Some of those picks were no brainers.

So JT Compher, a 1st and what else is coming back for CC from the Avs?

Well the flyers came in at #13 for prospects rank. This is how Scott Wheeler ranks it
york
brink
Zamula
Frost
forester
andrae
samu
desnoyer
attard
mcclennon
wisdom
kosolov
obrien
lyksell
st ivanny
ersson
ratcliffe
- bradster

Nothing to get overly excited about. Where is Adam Ginning?

Craig Patrick..who was also responsible for some first round flubs and Free agent flubs as a GM. There was bad blood when he was fired and Ray Shero took over, for a few years.

He was their GM since just before their first cups.. A long run by todays standards..

Malkin waited a year to come over and was playing in the KHL or whatever it was called. Letang was not a first round IIRC.. Some of those picks were no brainers.
- RajaAmpat

Flyers connection, next GM...

That is my point though. Many teams trade young talent at the TDL not always knowing what they are giving up. GMs are human, they dont know everything and they make mistakes. It is up to Fletcher and his scouts to find those players
- xShoot4WarAmpsx

a lot of the time, when a team gives up a good young player, its because they want to win now. The young player isnt ready to contribute. Happens all the time.

Nothing to get overly excited about. Where is Adam Ginning?
- hello it's me 2050

who? lol oh our second round pick....hmmmmm maybe playing with leberge, and soon to be ratcliffe.