Yeah but who drives their line? Kerfoot is a passenger on the 2nd line.

Much more should be looked into than ESP...Nylander has 100 ESP too....pretty obvious who is driving the 2nd line and its not Kerfoot.
- Santo_44

For sure. Miller is so much better than Kerfoot. I'm only agreeing with Monkeypunk that IF we have restrictions on the improvements we can make then I'm first focused on the D first. If the D cannot be improved would I pivot to add Miller at the right price? ...sure, as long as it fits into the Cap planning for next year.

Cap space and assets are two different things. If you're looking at miller (who I'd continue betting won't even be available), and 1-2 top 4 defenceman, were talking multiple first round picks, probably one of Sandin/Liljegren and numerous prospects on the table (none of which will be Amirov).

Is that really a road people want to go down. 🤔

I prefer spending the assets on one quality defender, try to land a cheaper option as well (like Demelo), and maintain some sense of a future. The focus has to be on the blueline, no one outscores their problems all the way to a cup. 🤷🏻‍♂️
- joel878

D goes beyond the defensemen.

For sure. Miller is so much better than Kerfoot. I'm only agreeing with Monkeypunk that IF we have restrictions on the improvements we can make then I'm first focused on the D first. If the D cannot be improved would I pivot to add Miller at the right price? ...sure, as long as it fits into the Cap planning for next year.
- The Law

But if Muzzin's cap is off the books they have 5.6M(prorated) plus the 1M they were projected to have in deadline cap space(a larger number now with the Ritchie trade) and with Dermott or Holl likely going the other way in a D trade that's even more cap.

D goes beyond the defensemen.
- Santo_44

You can't have 50% of your entire blueline vulnerable and expect to go anywhere, stacked forward group or not.

You can't have 50% of your entire blueline vulnerable and expect to go anywhere, stacked forward group or not.
- joel878

They have the cap to add both.

If they trade for Miller it is not just a TDL move, it is an offseason move as well with his term.

They have the cap to add both.

If they trade for Miller it is not just a TDL move, it is an offseason move as well with his term.
- Santo_44

As per my original comment, cap space and using the assets to fill them are two different things.

You're talking upwards of 3 assets that will be in the 1st round pick + decent prospect / young roster player range.

If you want to mortgage it all that's another angle, I don't like the idea of being in a spot where the team is gutted for picks for years and their top prospect is Rubins.

Marner 2.79 ESP/60
Kerfoot 2.76 ESP/60

Basically Marner=Kerfoot
- Santo_44

Yup. Reductive statistical comparisons can suit fun narratives.

They're both UFAs in 23-24, both looking for raises but one already makes almost $2m more per year.

If the difference between the two players is negligible then why make the move to run into a Cap issues yet again for a couple more PP points? Especially when the team will be trying to sort out Matthews, Nylander and Marner all around the same time.

This team needs D. Period. End of sentence. End of story. OUR D SUCKS.

If there is any money to spare on this team it should go directly to D.

If a trade is made it should be to free up money from the forward group and be moved to improved the D group.

We might end up having an issue with the G. Neither are playing well.

Priorities in order should be:
1. D
2. G





8. JT Miller, a more expensive Kerfoot.
- underhill14

Agreed.
Miller is a little better kerfoot, but not enough to put us over the top (specially with the type of mins he plays - does he play center as well?). The priority is D and that will only change a bit if Muzzin is known to be healthy prior to trade deadline.
I knew Friedman's comments last night would reignite some wet dreams.

Unless Dubie believes Muzz will be back for the playoffs, maybe he gets some cheap D and blows his nut on a forward.

Priorities are to make the team better.

The market may not suggest there are any worthwhile d to add, other than some lower quality cheap ones.
- Santo_44

The market doesn’t dictate your needs. Those are defined by the play of your team and injuries. The market may not allow you to get what you are looking for at a price you’re willing to pay but you have to start with a clear view of objectives. IMO, those are:
1. RHD to replace Holl
2. LHD to replace Muzzin if he’s not coming back or you don’t think he’s coming back at a level you think works.
3. LW for 2nd line.

As per my original comment, cap space and using the assets to fill them are two different things.

You're talking upwards of 3 assets that will be in the 1st round pick + decent prospect / young roster player range.

If you want to mortgage it all that's another angle, I don't like the idea of being in a spot where the team is gutted for picks for years and their top prospect is Rubins.
- joel878

I'd say Miller plus a D.

Dermott helps offset a D move.

Miller replaces Kerfoot for 1.5M more next season and you trade Kerfoot for picks in the offseason...so in a lot of ways you are lending teams asset value in order to have Kerfoot,Miller and maybe Muzzin for a playoff run and upgrading Kerfoot next season.

Lastly you could trade Mikheyev this TDL to also get some picks, since Miller likely replaces him on the PK anyway.

This does not have to be viewed narrow-mindedly, there would be a lot of moving parts and ripple effects with these moves.

new blog everyone

Cap space and assets are two different things. If you're looking at miller (who I'd continue betting won't even be available), and 1-2 top 4 defenceman, were talking multiple first round picks, probably one of Sandin/Liljegren and numerous prospects on the table (none of which will be Amirov).

Is that really a road people want to go down. 🤔

I prefer spending the assets on one quality defender, try to land a cheaper option as well (like Demelo), and maintain some sense of a future. The focus has to be on the blueline, no one outscores their problems all the way to a cup. 🤷🏻‍♂️
- joel878

It's difficult to talk about assets here because I don't know what Top 4 d-man is available or who might fit.

JT Miller might be something like: Kerfoot, 1st, top prospect

But who is the mysterious Top 4 d-man? I don't even know where to start there unless we start naming names.

Agreed.
Miller is a little better kerfoot, but not enough to put us over the top (specially with the type of mins he plays - does he play center as well?). The priority is D and that will only change a bit if Muzzin is known to be healthy prior to trade deadline.
I knew Friedman's comments last night would reignite some wet dreams.

Unless Dubie believes Muzz will be back for the playoffs, maybe he gets some cheap D and blows his nut on a forward.
- Fakepartofme

I'd say Miller plus a D.

Dermott helps offset a D move.

Miller replaces Kerfoot for 1.5M more next season and you trade Kerfoot for picks in the offseason...so in a lot of ways you are lending teams asset value in order to have Kerfoot,Miller and maybe Muzzin for a playoff run and upgrading Kerfoot next season.

Lastly you could trade Mikheyev this TDL to also get some picks, since Miller likely replaces him on the PK anyway.

This does not have to be viewed narrow-mindedly, there would be a lot of moving parts and ripple effects with these moves.
- Santo_44

I would not want to have to trust Dermott more than I would want Miller over Kerfoot. That's where it dies for me.

It's difficult to talk about assets here because I don't know what Top 4 d-man is available or who might fit.

JT Miller might be something like: Kerfoot, 1st, top prospect

But who is the mysterious Top 4 d-man? I don't even know where to start there unless we start naming names.
- mjones242

The athletic had a pretty good article yesterday on prices for defenceman, including a bit about Larsson + Jarnkrok costing the leafs a 1st, 2nd, Niemela, Liljegren, Anderson and a conditional pick (not joking).

If you have a subscription might be a good place to put names to values. 🤷🏻‍♂️

It's not negligible. And 1.75M is simply not a bridge too far.
- mjones242

It's not the cost - it's the acquisition cost. You're not getting Miller without at least a 1st and a high level prospect. Santo thinks Kerfoot SUCKS completely compared to Miller but Kerfoot will still fetch at least a 1st round pick - so what the ever-loving-Christ is the price to get Miller who is worlds better?

Next, both of your evaluations about the talent levels that the 1st and 2nd lines play against are vastly different than the talent levels that the 3rd and 4th lines play against, but the difference in competition among the top-6 forwards is not that drastic league-wide. There are a few teams where it's highly discernible, but in terms of an overall metric - it's not there.

The point is that we all agree that JT Miller is better. His role or placement in our lineup right now would be earmarked on the 2LW spot. That's a huge downgrade for him in terms of ice time and opportunity as well moving to the PP2. JT Miller is not better than John Tavares but he could totally compliment him - in a way that is better than Kerfoot does. But not in a way that boosts the team's overall play enough to justify paying out a 1st and Knies/Niemela/Robertson or something stupid like that. Especially when our cupboards are more empty than full. Every asset we have is of high value to us unless something is REALLY going to move that needle.

*remembers when OV's shot was not better than Jay Beagle's or any other NHLers, he just played more minutes and took more*
- AdamFrench

If I had a nickel for every time I heard this, I'd have enough money to buy a house, but I'd continue to rent.

I would not want to have to trust Dermott more than I would want Miller over Kerfoot. That's where it dies for me.
- joel878

Dermott offsets needing to send an extra draft asset for a d

Dermott offsets needing to send an extra draft asset for a d
- Santo_44

I don't like a lineup with Dermott playing significant minutes in it. He's a problem. That's just my feelings about watching him play this season.

Marner 2.79 ESP/60
Kerfoot 2.76 ESP/60

Basically Marner=Kerfoot
- Santo_44

What’s this mean?

Kerfoot = Marner for real or am I missing something?

You can't have 50% of your entire blueline vulnerable and expect to go anywhere, stacked forward group or not.
- joel878

Agreed.
Simply not a good plan. The leafs forwards simply do not
The past 4 cups winners didnt make huge moves at the deadline, it was all depth moves. You need a deep D, not all stars...but quality depth for a deep run

If I had a nickel for every time I heard this, I'd have enough money to buy a house, but I'd continue to rent.
- Atomic Wedgie

Tanner was just ahead of the time as a member of "The Great Reset." He owns nothing and he loves it.

Agreed.
Simply not a good plan. The leafs forwards simply do not
The past 4 cups winners didnt make huge moves at the deadline, it was all depth moves. You need a deep D, not all stars...but quality depth for a deep run
- Fakepartofme

TB traded 2 1sts and 2 prospects for their cup 2 years ago.

Then traded a 1st last year.

It's not the cost - it's the acquisition cost. You're not getting Miller without at least a 1st and a high level prospect. Santo thinks Kerfoot SUCKS completely compared to Miller but Kerfoot will still fetch at least a 1st round pick - so what the ever-loving-Christ is the price to get Miller who is worlds better?

Next, both of your evaluations about the talent levels that the 1st and 2nd lines play against are vastly different than the talent levels that the 3rd and 4th lines play against, but the difference in competition among the top-6 forwards is not that drastic league-wide. There are a few teams where it's highly discernible, but in terms of an overall metric - it's not there.

The point is that we all agree that JT Miller is better. His role or placement in our lineup right now would be earmarked on the 2LW spot. That's a huge downgrade for him in terms of ice time and opportunity as well moving to the PP2. JT Miller is not better than John Tavares but he could totally compliment him - in a way that is better than Kerfoot does. But not in a way that boosts the team's overall play enough to justify paying out a 1st and Knies/Niemela/Robertson or something stupid like that. Especially when our cupboards are more empty than full. Every asset we have is of high value to us unless something is REALLY going to move that needle.
- Monkeypunk

Bingo.
Well said

TB traded 2 1sts and 2 prospects for their cup 2 years ago.

Then traded a 1st last year.
- Santo_44

Great, and the got depth...mostly at D. Savard, Claesson, lashoff.
I believe they also needed teams to take on cap, which up'd the cost.
Goodrow and coleman the year before...forward depth.