Kevin Francis: DJ Smith & Matt Murray can't be in Ottawa to start next season!
- Kevin Francis

Hey Kevin! I have Batherson in a pool where we have our last meeting March 24th. Heard he may be back skating. Is there any local intel as to whether he might be back playing sooner than what rotowire is showing of April 1st? Was so choked with how he got injured, kid was having an amazing season, he's a keeper for you guys going forward. Any intel would be hugely appreciated.
Thx :->

As for the discussion of who among Murray, Zaitsev, or White should get bought out if they were to make a move like that, it's an absolute no-brainer as far as I'm concerned. Zaitsev isn't a top-4 D-man, but he's still a RHD and could eat up minutes on the 3rd pairing, and chip in with PK support. White's overpaid, but can play a 2nd/3rd line role effectively at RW/C, and provides versatile depth in the lineup. But a goaltender who's done nothing but spectacularly under-perform since Day 1, and who came in under the shadow of such a bad trade and just never fit the team, is a 100% useless asset.

Pick your poison...
https://www.capfriendly.c...t-calculator/matt-murray1

CONTRACT
2022/23 - 7.00M $$$/6.25M AAV
2023/24 - 8.00M $$$/6.25M AAV

BUYOUT
2022/23 - 2.50M $$$/1.75M AAV
2023/24 - 2.50M $$$/0.75M AAV
2024/25 - 2.50M $$$/2.50M AAV
2025/26 - 2.50M $$$/2.50M AAV

If you're Melnyk, you have to step back and seriously consider if you really want to hand over $15M to a guy who can't do his job properly, and will single-handedly lose you games for the next 2 years. Then factor in the benefit of financing the cost of the contract over a longer timeframe, especially given the limited attendance. The $0.75M-$2.50M cap hit really isn't that big of an issue, especially given the relatively low probability that Melnyk ever had intentions of spending $80M+... and paying out $5M over the next 2 years is a lot easier to manage than having to pay out a full $15M.

Even with a substantial raise, Forsberg would more than pay for himself with the Murray savings over the next 2 years, and hopefully they've got Gustavsson/Sogaard ready to step in under affordable contracts by the time Murray's year 3/4 buyout cap-hit takes effect.

Compelling posts by khawk and SensFan25. Can’t really disprove the logic in those posts regarding Forsberg. Last night’s game against St. Louis certainly moved my personal needle to keep Forsberg but am still intrigued to perhaps selling the asset at its peak. However, as another poster mentioned, goalies don’t have the same demand as d-men and forwards at the trade deadline.

Great posts agreed, it's not a clearcut decision between Zaitsev and Murray, but I like buying out Zaitsev with this coach if only because there's precedent for Murray having lost his confidence and he can be buried, but Zaitsev still gets the minutes. If you lose the coach, mind you, that changes. Another thing - Zaitsev has bonuses in his salary whereas Murray does not. Bonuses = higher payouts to the bought out player. But Murray's salary in real money escalates - he makes 6 this year, 7 the next, 8 in the last year of his deal whereas Zaitsev's remains constant at 4.5. Lots to weigh out.

Per Forsberg I am not averse to keeping him. The only thing I would caution, not to be a broken record, is to suggest people look at Forsberg's career numbers when weighing decisions. Not many goalies discover their game at 29-30. Tim Thomas did it, so it's not unheard of. But Condon/Hammond were resigned after they'd played significant 1A sub roles the previous season. It sucks having one of those bad goalie contracts on the roster... But the prospect of having two is pretty scary.

Hey Kevin! I have Batherson in a pool where we have our last meeting March 24th. Heard he may be back skating. Is there any local intel as to whether he might be back playing sooner than what rotowire is showing of April 1st? Was so choked with how he got injured, kid was having an amazing season, he's a keeper for you guys going forward. Any intel would be hugely appreciated.
Thx :->
- Kevin R

Yesterday Batherson was in interview. He expect to come back in two or three weeks. Have skate 5 times already

Yesterday Batherson was in interview. He expect to come back in two or three weeks. Have skate 5 times already
- Crosside

Thanks

Sens cap hit is roughly 50 million next year. If they keep Paul, Formenton, Norris, Brannstrom, and Forsberg, that'll bring them roughly to 65 million. Sens are in desperate need for a 1st line RW and at least 1 more competent defensemen (I would love a Methot type player to play with Chabot. Hopefully Sanderson, JDB, Thomson will be ready for NHL next year). That's another 10-15 million if they get a big name RW (unlikely, imo). That brings them close to the max cap hit.

A buy-out or trades will have to happen. Melnyk is not going to pay near the cap for a team that still sucks.

Paul, Forsberg and Brannstrom will have to be traded if they want too much so the Sens can try to get the pieces they need.

I'm assuming the performance of the team next year will determine Smith's fate. At least this time when the coach is fired, fans will be behind it. If it's another bad start, I think Smith is gone by game 30.

Sens played a really solid road game. Thought they deserved a better result against Vegas the other night. Return of Norris is important. Not sure any real purpose is served in accusing DJ Smith of capital crimes.
- spatso

It's comical with you because we don't hear anything from you when this coach and team is a trainwreck for the first 3 games of the road trip plus their last home game prior to the trip. But now you chime in about how there serves no purpose about stating stuff about DJ Smith. Hmmmm.....those of you who know me personally that post here no darn well I'm getting info from the best of sources in the org. DJ cant coach at this level and he has shown it for 2.5 years. In fact, many are now saying the fact they have slow starts to the season is also because his training camps are the toughest anyone has endured in their pro career. So this team is wrecked before the season starts, injuries occurring from an inexperienced head coach. DJ is a joke, waiting 20 games into next season is just waiving any hope of contending for a playoff. Get rid of him this summer, when Brady has to come out and say Forsberg is teh backbone of the team you have problems with the coaches because he wants everyone to read between the lines! When Murray is losing his mind between periods about Zaitsev and JBrown, realizing what a problem they are, but this coach has rose tinted glasses on when looking at these two, then you have a bigger problem!

Great game last night. Stifling forecheck, and then a quick counter attack.

Good blog.
That's pretty much the sum up most fans are murmuring and agreeing with.
The only thing I would add is that after the Pittsburgh game - we suddenly got Matt Murray the 6 million dollar man. He was very good. I think he too gets frustrated with the dumb Dumb DUMB defense this coach keeps rolling with night after night. I wouldn't attribute his frequent injuries to the bad defense, but you can see he's frustrated by it.

The best suggestion I've heard yet is run with all three goalies next year. Gus stays in Bellville until you absolutely need him. Gotta re-sign Forsberg.
- Octavarium

Thanks man! I can tell you I haven't received one negative message on HB in my private IM box or on my Twitter feed or my Twitter IM. Fans are begging to get rid of DJ, almost 3 years of no ingame adjustments, of terrible lineup decisions, of favouring players, fans are beyond tired of his act. His double standard with young players vs. the vets is something that has the more and more players in the locker room wanting him gone! No doubt his injuries have been a factor of poor defense, plus he seems to get injured quite easily or is one of those goalies that has to be 100% to play, due to his mental make up.

He's the 'leggo my Eggo' guy, right?
- Bartacus

There's a sucker born every minute.

It incenses me that I keep hearing Holden's name mentioned in trade rumours out of Leafs nation after we *just* resigned him.

So here's my counterproposal - Artem Zub and Forsberg for Nylander and Duszak, who just requested a trade out of there. Sign Josh Manson in the off season to replace Zub and somebody like a Varlamov or Holtby for a year. Could sweeten with Brannstrom, but Dorion has been hosed by Dubas enough, time to return the favour. Cue angry Leaf fan response.

It incenses me that I keep hearing Holden's name mentioned in trade rumours out of Leafs nation after we *just* resigned him.

So here's my counterproposal - Artem Zub and Forsberg for Nylander and Duszak, who just requested a trade out of there. Sign Josh Manson in the off season to replace Zub and somebody like a Varlamov or Holtby for a year. Could sweeten with Brannstrom, but Dorion has been hosed by Dubas enough, time to return the favour. Cue angry Leaf fan response.
- Bartacus

At least your post makes logical sense as to why you proposed the trade! That's thing, its crazy to just throw it out there as some Leafs fans are doing. Holden ain't gong nowhere unless the Leafs returned the favour and took back Zaitsev lol!

Sens cap hit is roughly 50 million next year. If they keep Paul, Formenton, Norris, Brannstrom, and Forsberg, that'll bring them roughly to 65 million. Sens are in desperate need for a 1st line RW and at least 1 more competent defensemen (I would love a Methot type player to play with Chabot. Hopefully Sanderson, JDB, Thomson will be ready for NHL next year). That's another 10-15 million if they get a big name RW (unlikely, imo). That brings them close to the max cap hit.

A buy-out or trades will have to happen. Melnyk is not going to pay near the cap for a team that still sucks.

Paul, Forsberg and Brannstrom will have to be traded if they want too much so the Sens can try to get the pieces they need.

I'm assuming the performance of the team next year will determine Smith's fate. At least this time when the coach is fired, fans will be behind it. If it's another bad start, I think Smith is gone by game 30.
- PogBoi

Great points and info to back up your comments! The one thing this team and owner cant afford to have is another slow start. Check out my other comments on why they need to let DJ go this summer!

Compelling posts by khawk and SensFan25. Can’t really disprove the logic in those posts regarding Forsberg. Last night’s game against St. Louis certainly moved my personal needle to keep Forsberg but am still intrigued to perhaps selling the asset at its peak. However, as another poster mentioned, goalies don’t have the same demand as d-men and forwards at the trade deadline.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

Management knows they have a head case in Murray! They wont be moving Forsberg for that reason alone, but they need to keep him now as insurance until they can figure out what to do with Murray in the summer. Maybe management is lucky enough to find a team that wants Murray and Ottawa retains salary, making it better than a buyout! But agree, goalies arent held as high in terms of compensation as position players unless you got a recent cup ring.

Hey Kevin! I have Batherson in a pool where we have our last meeting March 24th. Heard he may be back skating. Is there any local intel as to whether he might be back playing sooner than what rotowire is showing of April 1st? Was so choked with how he got injured, kid was having an amazing season, he's a keeper for you guys going forward. Any intel would be hugely appreciated.
Thx :->
- Kevin R

This team has allowed both Colin White and Josh Norris an additional week of making sure they are ready after they rushed back Shane Pinto earlier this year when he left in the first period of of his first game back. I truly see April 1st as the target date and not a day earlier. Or quite possibly after April 1st, its a high ankle issue, soft tissue is worse to deal with than healing a bone! Hope that helps.

Great posts agreed, it's not a clearcut decision between Zaitsev and Murray, but I like buying out Zaitsev with this coach if only because there's precedent for Murray having lost his confidence and he can be buried, but Zaitsev still gets the minutes. If you lose the coach, mind you, that changes. Another thing - Zaitsev has bonuses in his salary whereas Murray does not. Bonuses = higher payouts to the bought out player. But Murray's salary in real money escalates - he makes 6 this year, 7 the next, 8 in the last year of his deal whereas Zaitsev's remains constant at 4.5. Lots to weigh out.

Per Forsberg I am not averse to keeping him. The only thing I would caution, not to be a broken record, is to suggest people look at Forsberg's career numbers when weighing decisions. Not many goalies discover their game at 29-30. Tim Thomas did it, so it's not unheard of. But Condon/Hammond were resigned after they'd played significant 1A sub roles the previous season. It sucks having one of those bad goalie contracts on the roster... But the prospect of having two is pretty scary.
- Bartacus

I am with you buyout Zaitsev over Murray but then look to move Murray and retain some of his salary but then you are out from underneath his contract in 2 years instead of 4 if you buy him out. Like you said, the money escalates which is a problem for sure!

As for the discussion of who among Murray, Zaitsev, or White should get bought out if they were to make a move like that, it's an absolute no-brainer as far as I'm concerned. Zaitsev isn't a top-4 D-man, but he's still a RHD and could eat up minutes on the 3rd pairing, and chip in with PK support. White's overpaid, but can play a 2nd/3rd line role effectively at RW/C, and provides versatile depth in the lineup. But a goaltender who's done nothing but spectacularly under-perform since Day 1, and who came in under the shadow of such a bad trade and just never fit the team, is a 100% useless asset.

Pick your poison...
https://www.capfriendly.c...t-calculator/matt-murray1

CONTRACT
2022/23 - 7.00M $$$/6.25M AAV
2023/24 - 8.00M $$$/6.25M AAV

BUYOUT
2022/23 - 2.50M $$$/1.75M AAV
2023/24 - 2.50M $$$/0.75M AAV
2024/25 - 2.50M $$$/2.50M AAV
2025/26 - 2.50M $$$/2.50M AAV

If you're Melnyk, you have to step back and seriously consider if you really want to hand over $15M to a guy who can't do his job properly, and will single-handedly lose you games for the next 2 years. Then factor in the benefit of financing the cost of the contract over a longer timeframe, especially given the limited attendance. The $0.75M-$2.50M cap hit really isn't that big of an issue, especially given the relatively low probability that Melnyk ever had intentions of spending $80M+... and paying out $5M over the next 2 years is a lot easier to manage than having to pay out a full $15M.

Even with a substantial raise, Forsberg would more than pay for himself with the Murray savings over the next 2 years, and hopefully they've got Gustavsson/Sogaard ready to step in under affordable contracts by the time Murray's year 3/4 buyout cap-hit takes effect.
- khawk

Outstanding post! Ok, well I'm on the buyout Murray train now, bury Zaitsev in Belleville as the owner was fine with having 8 million in Belleville in December with MDZ and Murray!

OTT should buy out the player that would do the most damage to the team if they remain and they cant trade said player.

OTT should buy out the player that would do the most damage to the team if they remain and they cant trade said player.
- Mithos

Although what you say makes sense, on the surface though, we are dealing with an owner that is looking at the bottom line which in his case is dollars! But they can take care of both issues, buyout Murray and send down Zaitsev. Maybe then he asks to leave like a few other Russians have done in the past when assigned to the AHL, then they are off the hook paying him!!!

With DJ Smith... PD needs to take away his toys (aka Josh Brown) and give him a decent 2nd line RW. Then after the first 15 games next season, if there isn't improvement, give him the boot.

This off-season and the start of next year could determine the fate of the Sens for awhile.
- GrimmdaGoalie

Why wait? Look at waiting did for the Oilers this season? They knew the inevitable but waited an extra month and strong chance that's the difference between the Oilers making the playoffs or not. Just saying as an outsider, look at the Canucks, they didn't wait and now they have a shot at the playoffs. Had they of waited as long as the Oilers they would be sitting with Chicago in the Western Conference standings.

It incenses me that I keep hearing Holden's name mentioned in trade rumours out of Leafs nation after we *just* resigned him.

So here's my counterproposal - Artem Zub and Forsberg for Nylander and Duszak, who just requested a trade out of there. Sign Josh Manson in the off season to replace Zub and somebody like a Varlamov or Holtby for a year. Could sweeten with Brannstrom, but Dorion has been hosed by Dubas enough, time to return the favour. Cue angry Leaf fan response.
- Bartacus

I would take Nylander in a heartbeat 🤙 put him with Stutzle and Formenton

OTT should buy out the player that would do the most damage to the team if they remain and they cant trade said player.
- Mithos

From what I've watched and observed all season from a betting perspective, Murray has cost this team 3 wins in games he's played, plus countless others from not being available most of the time.

Zaitsev has cost Ottawa more games than Murray because it seems his mistakes end up directly in the net.

I say it's a wash, do whatever it takes to trade one and buy one out, or retain salary in a deal like Kevin mentioned. To think that the Bobby Ryan deal is still haunting Ottawa due to the buyout now, is incredible.

I would take Nylander in a heartbeat 🤙 put him with Stutzle and Formenton
- sens4life1971

You could call that line the Mazerotti line or Lambo line, any fast car would suffice with all that speed and skill. I think Toronto would love to get out of the Nylander contract to shore up their defense properly. Otherwise with Marner's NTC kicking in this summer, the Leafs have a serious decision to make if they get bounced in the first round.

I'm on board with dumping DJ Smith in-season. Bring up Mann from Belleville as interim coach and see what he can do. Or put Jack Capuano as interim coach. This team is grossly underachieving and that is on the coaching.

Forsberg needs to be re-signed for next season. This team needs to get off to a great start and Forsberg gives the team the best shot in net. He is above league average in save percentage on a team that is weak defensively.

I am fine with running with 3 goalies next year. I have never bought into the hype on Gustavsson and to me he projects as an NHL backup at best. I'd be interested in seeing how Murray would play for another coach that can get more out of the team defence. If he still sucks or provides too much distractions, buy out the last year of his contract.
- SensFan25

Fire DJ Smith and replace him with Luke Richardson! Problem solved.

You could call that line the Mazerotti line or Lambo line, any fast car would suffice with all that speed and skill. I think Toronto would love to get out of the Nylander contract to shore up their defense properly. Otherwise with Marner's NTC kicking in this summer, the Leafs have a serious decision to make if they get bounced in the first round.
- PuckPix

Cause Toronto isn’t very smart they would want to get rid of one of the few to play with heart in playoffs lol
No wonder they never make it outta first round 😂😂