If the Flyers trade any of their current top 4, I think it will be Provorov because he can get the best return.
- jd250

Who’s replacing Provy tho? There’s no realistic return that will make sense for the hole that opens up on the back end.

First, as Tomahawk recently suggested, you need to do some research and educate yourself some on even something just as simple as what metrics to actually look at.
- MJL

Oh I see, I have to look at the "right" metrics so your continued spew on Risto will be justified, is that how it works??

Who’s replacing Provy tho? There’s no realistic return that will make sense for the hole that opens up on the back end.
- hereticpride

Is there another injury prone high cap hit top defenseman out there with term?

Oh I see, I have to look at the "right" metrics so your continued spew on Risto will be justified, is that how it works??
- jd250

Oh, brother!

I appreciate the work you put in here but to be honest I'm not sure I understand it. Risto and Sanheim have been partnered together this entire season, I would estimate about 90% of their ice time overall. My point was not which one is a better defenseman, my point was you can't make a definitive claim solely looking at numbers, you need to watch the games. I pointed out cases where if one player makes a bad mistake that ends up in an opposition goal, everyone on the ice suffers from that mistake. For example last night Risto was a -2 and that accurately reflected his bad turnovers that directly resulted in opposition goals. However Sanheim was also a -2 but those goals were not his fault.
- jd250

Natural Stat Trick allows cut and paste into Excel. Doesn't take that long. But thanks.

For Risto, it is 80% of his TOI. For Travis, it is 70%

What I did is the following. Say player 1 plays 50% of the time with player 2 and 50% with player 3. Supose player 2 has a Corsi of 50% for the season (quality of player 2), and player 3 has 46 (quality of player 3). A ballpark expectation of where player 1's Corsi should be is 48.


In the case of Risto, I found this ballpark expectation to be accurate or worse. In Sanheim's case, it was better. Meaning Risto fares about where you would expect or worse. Sanheim raises the games of his partners.

I don't think anyone suggests you look solely at #s. Its just that #s convey a volume of information the eye cannot pickup and the brain cannot hold.

Who’s replacing Provy tho? There’s no realistic return that will make sense for the hole that opens up on the back end.
- hereticpride

Not a hole when they trade Ellis for Seth Jones......

Oh I see, I have to look at the "right" metrics so your continued spew on Risto will be justified, is that how it works??
- jd250

I mean, if you want to actually present a compelling case, then yeah.

Not a hole when they trade Ellis for Seth Jones......
- hello it's me 2050

Oof. A rebuilding Chicago would probably go for that

Last month I posted a list of the top 5 teams for Man Games Lost due to injury and health protocols. Philly was 4th. This is the updated list through March 19 for anyone interested. I’ve also listed the 5 teams with the least lost.

Man Games Lost
MTL 603
BUF 473
PHI 435
VAN 421
EDM 415

Man Games Lost (least)
CGY 62
MIN 122
TOR. 125
NYI. 142
NSH. 157

If the Flyers trade any of their current top 4, I think it will be Provorov because he can get the best return.
- jd250

Who’s replacing those minutes ? Unless they bring in a 23 minute plus guy then it’s an issue. Contract wise it may be Sanheim. The 3 other top 4 guys are signed beyond next year.

Who’s replacing Provy tho? There’s no realistic return that will make sense for the hole that opens up on the back end.
- hereticpride

That’s the problem…

Perhaps the conversation needs to evolve onto discussing why the Flyers chose to re-sign Ristolainen.
- MJL

You said previously it was to save face. I agree with you.

You said previously it was to save face. I agree with you.
- Pelle31Forever

And perhaps the offers in the event of a trade were not what Fletcher thought he should get…

That’s the problem…
- landros 2

Ben Chiarot baby....can see it now

And perhaps the offers in the event of a trade were not what Fletcher thought he should get…
- landros 2

Also possible. Good point.

But let's say he couldn't get the first back. He should have taken a 2nd and maybe another pick/player/prospect.

Some smaller combo of what he gave up.

Heck if it were me and JUST a first, given how poor he's played, I'd have said "deal".

What if one of the big moves chuck wants to make is trading up for the #1 pick? That could be a big win, id rather that than johnny G for $9M
- bradster

Trading up to #1 with what assets?

Perhaps the conversation needs to evolve onto discussing why the Flyers chose to re-sign Ristolainen.
- MJL

Because, Chuck wants a core of 25 year olds or younger! That's why he signed a 27 year old to a 5 year extension! The new analytics people helped him with that calculation

You said previously it was to save face. I agree with you.
- Pelle31Forever

I believe I probably did say that but that's not the main reason in my opinion. I believe that the GM knows that his job is on the line. He knows that Braun was moved. Ellis is a question mark and if he moved Ristolainen. He would've had to completely rebuild the right side of his defense if Ellis can't rebound. So I think it was a safety valve more than anything. Knowing that next year if the team starts out slow, he's probably gone. Not willing to risk going into the off season with that staring at him. In essence we have a team and a GM who put themselves into a position of having to make moves rather than being very selective and making the right moves.

And perhaps the offers in the event of a trade were not what Fletcher thought he should get…
- landros 2

If that was the case and then he signed him for that term and aav, good lord help us.

If that was the case and then he signed him for that term and aav, good lord help us.
- MBFlyerfan

I don't think there is any question about that although it's complete speculation. I also believe that Ristolainen and his agent read the tea leaves and realized that he was not going to be as valuable as they once thought in free agency.

Also possible. Good point.

But let's say he couldn't get the first back. He should have taken a 2nd and maybe another pick/player/prospect.

Some smaller combo of what he gave up.

Heck if it were me and JUST a first, given how poor he's played, I'd have said "deal".
- Pelle31Forever

Yeah, likely he couldn't come close to recouping what he paid, so he gave in to the sunk cost fallacy and just doubled down. I'm sure he really believes that once Ellis comes back that RR's play will get better. Just like he believes the Flyers are just two pieces away when healthy lol.

Do you have the same chart showing Risto’s numbers based on playing with Sanheim or anyone else? Curious what that looks like.
- funmaster18

Since the same data was used by me just a few mins ago, here you go:



EDIT: Since Risto has played 197 mins without TS, I just took the x mins he has played with any other partner, and multiplied the Corsi, GA% and xGF% with x/197 for that partner (pairing), then summed.

Because, Chuck wants a core of 25 year olds or younger! That's why he signed a 27 year old to a 5 year extension! The new analytics people helped him with that calculation
- TobyFlenderson

27 is the new 23

Because, Chuck wants a core of 25 year olds or younger! That's why he signed a 27 year old to a 5 year extension! The new analytics people helped him with that calculation
- TobyFlenderson

as well as ex selke and Laughton. A rudderless ship

Yeah, likely he couldn't come close to recouping what he paid, so he gave in to the sunk cost fallacy and just doubled down. I'm sure he really believes that once Ellis comes back that RR's play will get better. Just like he believes the Flyers are just two pieces away when healthy lol.
- Tomahawk

So you don't think the top ranked Flyers analytics department has come up with their own proprietary stats that proves us wrong?