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Forums :: Blog World :: Jacob Billington: Welcome to the Jets Mailbag; Comparing Lowry, Scheifele league-wide
Author Message
Rexypoo
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Apr 16 @ 4:18 PM ET
Excellent work. Love this idea.
Jacob Billington
Location: Westville, NS
Joined: 10.16.2021

Apr 16 @ 4:44 PM ET
Excellent work. Love this idea.
- Rexypoo


Thanks, Rex! I had a lot of fun doing this. I will be doing one of these every month, subject to change based on the kind of questions asked. If we start seeing very similar questions every time, I will try 2 months between, just for some creativity and more subject matter.

Regardless, it was a lot of fun, and I'm glad most readers are happy with the content. That's what matters most
Ross77
Joined: 11.21.2014

Apr 16 @ 5:47 PM ET
Even during Jets home games, when they have the last change? Maurice consistently put Scheifele against other teams top lines. There was a website that I saw a couple of years ago and for some reason I have not been able to relocate it. The QoC clearly showed Scheifele up against top lines whether at home or on the road. I have pointed this out in the past, especially when highlighting his ice time.

Its amazing that this team turned what should have been a clear advantage against other teams into one of its weaknesses. Seeing what Copp is doing in NYR, it really makes me question this teams talent evaluation.

- TheUltimateJet


Ok but here’s the thing. Shief does play against other teams first line and constantly loses the battle. We can not win with Shief being our number one Center. This has now been proven.
Jacob Billington
Location: Westville, NS
Joined: 10.16.2021

Apr 16 @ 5:58 PM ET
Ok but here’s the thing. Shief does play against other teams first line and constantly loses the battle. We can not win with Shief being our number one Center. This has now been proven.
- Ross77


It's not clear if it is first lines or not, but Scheifeles QoC is tougher matchups than 95% of other first line players, according to the WAR model. Sure, he still struggles very mightily, but he isn't facing the 4th liners all the time.
Old Flopper
Location: Winnipeg, MB
Joined: 08.06.2020

Apr 16 @ 8:57 PM ET
Very good article Jacob, thx for doing all that digging, compiling the info and delivering. Good piece!
Old Flopper
Location: Winnipeg, MB
Joined: 08.06.2020

Apr 16 @ 9:02 PM ET
*12 years starting nearly blank slate, full cap budget, middling results
*has hired three coaches
*gave pavelik a 5 year, 5 mil contract
*allowed 4 years of floundering after a single playoff run: poor defensive play, inconsistent efforts, bad special teams play with exception of a few runs on the pp, doesn’t trust his scouts enough to call up the players they choose and prefers players cast off by other teams, zero pre-emptive roster moves - all are forced
*12 years

- 2.0


Agree with you in this post or in your previous post
TheUltimateJet
Winnipeg Jets
Joined: 07.16.2013

Apr 16 @ 9:23 PM ET
Ok but here’s the thing. Shief does play against other teams first line and constantly loses the battle. We can not win with Shief being our number one Center. This has now been proven.
- Ross77


His offensive production says something else (9th center in the league in PPG). It is nice to know that (even though you did not say it) you are in agreement with me that this narrative surrounding Adam Lowry is completely false about him being this “shutdown center”.

Furthermore if Scheifele is the sole player responsible for the team losing that also means that is the sole reason for this team winning. Just goes to show how much of a bus driver he is. I love 55!
Ross77
Joined: 11.21.2014

Apr 16 @ 10:08 PM ET
His offensive production says something else (9th center in the league in PPG). It is nice to know that (even though you did not say it) you are in agreement with me that this narrative surrounding Adam Lowry is completely false about him being this “shutdown center”.

Furthermore if Scheifele is the sole player responsible for the team losing that also means that is the sole reason for this team winning. Just goes to show how much of a bus driver he is. I love 55!

- TheUltimateJet


If you are saying Shief is a #2 Center and Lowry is a 4. We are in agreement. If you are not saying both. We are not
Rexypoo
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Apr 17 @ 3:45 AM ET
Lowry excels at faceoffs, hitting and fighting which are all things fancy stat believers hate and think aren't necessary or important yet they think Adam Lowry is irreplaceable...
- JetFuel


I’m a stats baby, and I don’t hate any of those things.

I also think of faceoffs as on par with the average 50/50 puck battles, value hitting only as a means of gaining and/or removing puck possession, and fighting as an unnecessary guilty pleasure
Rexypoo
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Apr 17 @ 3:49 AM ET
If you are saying Shief is a #2 Center and Lowry is a 4. We are in agreement. If you are not saying both. We are not
- Ross77


Drew Doughty makes me think Scheifele can still be salvaged as a true #1.

We can all see the effort isn’t there like it used to be. He may not be the 17/18 juggernaut ever again, but a higher pressure system in the offensive zone, and an improved team under a new coach might light the fire under his ass again.

PLD isn’t a good defensive player by any means, but he puts the work in to keep above water until he can harass the other goalie. Scheifele can easily do that.
jetsnation
Location: Winnipeg, MB
Joined: 02.11.2015

Apr 17 @ 8:46 AM ET
Thanks for the mailbag Jacob. Your doing a great job on here !

For those that subscribe to the Athletic , Murat Ates wrote a great article yesterday on the Jets neutral zone system ( 1-1-2 ) and why its ineffective vs teams like LAK unorthodox 1-3-1 and Colorado and Florida 1-2-2 . Maybe the best article I've read from Murat about the un-coachable Jets . Moose use the same system but at least the players "buy" into that system and use it well, often because of superior gap control

https://theathletic.com/3...ching-have-to-do-with-it/

I've also mentioned the Jets ineffective down low system vs top teams using more of a side to top offensive umbrella which opens up space and allows that third guy to get back quicker to defence on a puck loss. Ever wonder why the Jets never seem to quite get the puck out of their own zone? it's because other teams often have that third guy up high near the middle.

At end of day it's a combo of the wrong system for an otherwise talented team. If you read between the line of what Ehlers and Dillon said, it tells the tale of the Jets not buying into the coach's ineffective system that doesn't not suit the type of team we have. Calgary was in a similar position to the Jets last season of players not buying what the coach was selling. Management turned it all around by bringing in a very touch coach in Sutter who will bench, you or sit you in the press box, if you don't buy into his system (and also runs HARD practices). It will be more of the same next year without a wholesale coaching change.
Ross77
Joined: 11.21.2014

Apr 17 @ 10:15 AM ET
Thanks for the mailbag Jacob. Your doing a great job on here !

For those that subscribe to the Athletic , Murat Ates wrote a great article yesterday on the Jets neutral zone system ( 1-1-2 ) and why its ineffective vs teams like LAK unorthodox 1-3-1 and Colorado and Florida 1-2-2 . Maybe the best article I've read from Murat about the un-coachable Jets . Moose use the same system but at least the players "buy" into that system and use it well, often because of superior gap control

https://theathletic.com/3...ching-have-to-do-with-it/

I've also mentioned the Jets ineffective down low system vs top teams using more of a side to top offensive umbrella which opens up space and allows that third guy to get back quicker to defense on a puck loss. Ever wonder why the Jets never seem to quite get the puck out of their own zone , its because other teams have that third guy up high .

At end of day its a combo of the wrong system for an otherwise talented team. If you read between the line of what Ehlers and Dillon said it tells the tale of the Jets not buying into the coach's ineffective systems that doesn't not suit the type of team we have. Calgary was in a similar position to the Jets last season of players not buying what the coach was selling. Management turned it all around by bringing in a very touch coach in Sutter who will bench, you or sit you in the press box, if you don't buy into his system (and also runs HARD practices). It will be more of the same next year without a wholesale coaching change.

- jetsnation


I hear the Calgary example a lot and while I do agree Sutter has okayed a big part in their turn around, they also brought in about 6 new key players. The jets need new coaches and some new faces.
jetsnation
Location: Winnipeg, MB
Joined: 02.11.2015

Apr 17 @ 10:30 AM ET
I hear the Calgary example a lot and while I do agree Sutter has okayed a big part in their turn around, they also brought in about 6 new key players. The jets need new coaches and some new faces.
- Ross77


I had said several years ago that Tkachuk was a better pick that Laine, I think that has become more than obvious at this stage, very talented, gets in tough areas, agitator, and. a leader . Every team needs a guy like that. Only Dubois might have the potential to be that guy but he has a ways to go to match Matthew T.

Toffoli, Coleman, and Zadorov were great pickups/trades by the Flames

If I were to grade the Jets players this year in a quick summary it would be :

Morrissey A+
Connor A
Ehlers and Dubios A-
Rest of Jets not better than a C
Coach. F
Management this season F. ( Dillon and Schmidt bad pickups , loss of Nathan Smith ,wrong coach, etc)
TheUltimateJet
Winnipeg Jets
Joined: 07.16.2013

Apr 17 @ 11:27 AM ET
I had said several years ago that Tkachuk was a better pick that Laine, I think that has become more than obvious at this stage, very talented, gets in tough areas, agitator, and. a leader . Every team needs a guy like that. Only Dubois might have the potential to be that guy but he has a ways to go to match Matthew T.

Toffoli, Coleman, and Zadorov were great pickups/trades by the Flames

If I were to grade the Jets players this year in a quick summary it would be :

Morrissey A+
Connor A
Ehlers and Dubios A-
Rest of Jets not better than a C
Coach. F
Management this season F. ( Dillon and Schmidt bad pickups , loss of Nathan Smith ,wrong coach, etc)

- jetsnation



These are great assessments! I agree with you its time to get rid off Chevel363daysoff. That guy along with the coaching staff need to go!
TheUltimateJet
Winnipeg Jets
Joined: 07.16.2013

Apr 17 @ 11:30 AM ET
Drew Doughty makes me think Scheifele can still be salvaged as a true #1.

We can all see the effort isn’t there like it used to be. He may not be the 17/18 juggernaut ever again, but a higher pressure system in the offensive zone, and an improved team under a new coach might light the fire under his ass again.

PLD isn’t a good defensive player by any means, but he puts the work in to keep above water until he can harass the other goalie. Scheifele can easily do that.

- Rexypoo



Scheifele has also been playing with two 36 year old wingers for the majority of this season, and he is still amongst the top 10 in centers in terms of PPG. Also as Jacob mentioned he is going up against 95% tougher matchups compared to his fellow #1 centers.

It amazes me that no one on the Jets coaching staff could figure out that if given time the Copp-Scheifele-Ehlers line would have been dynamic. I have stated on this board for years now. Ehlers on Scheifele’s wing for an entire season guarantees he scores 50. This also assuming that he gets number 1 power play time.
Jacob Billington
Location: Westville, NS
Joined: 10.16.2021

Apr 17 @ 1:01 PM ET
Scheifele has also been playing with two 36 year old wingers for the majority of this season, and he is still amongst the top 10 in centers in terms of PPG. Also as Jacob mentioned he is going up against 95% tougher matchups compared to his fellow #1 centers.

It amazes me that no one on the Jets coaching staff could figure out that if given time the Copp-Scheifele-Ehlers line would have been dynamic. I have stated on this board for years now. Ehlers on Scheifele’s wing for an entire season guarantees he scores 50. This also assuming that he gets number 1 power play time.

- TheUltimateJet


Obviously injuries and such make changes, but if the Jets ran:

Copp-Scheifele-Ehlers
Connor-Dubois-Svech/Perfetti/Whoever worked best

and a PP of

Connor-Scheifele-Dubois-Ehlers
Morrissey

Stastny-Copp-Wheeler-Perfetti
Pionk

This season could've looked much better
jjonah
Location: winnipeg, MB
Joined: 03.25.2013

Apr 17 @ 2:48 PM ET
Loss of Nathan Smith tough to pin on Jets. He saw Scheifele , DuBois and Lowry and as a C had the option to find a better place to play right away.

Jacob Billington
Location: Westville, NS
Joined: 10.16.2021

Apr 17 @ 4:16 PM ET
Loss of Nathan Smith tough to pin on Jets. He saw Scheifele , DuBois and Lowry and as a C had the option to find a better place to play right away.
- jjonah


Always a tough situation with a good prospect that won't sign with the team that drafted them. I am not going to get into whether the player should or shouldn't as every situation is different, but look at Calgary and Carolina with Adam Fox.

Coming up on the 4 year mark after Fox went from Calgary to Carolina, the Flames got a 1C, and top-4 D, and Carolina got a depth player, Dougie Hamilton and Adam Fox. Fox wasn't going to sign with Calgary.

Carolina then found out Fox wouldn't sign anywhere but the NYR, and was traded to the Rangers for 2 2nds. Now, Nathan Smith is not even close to Fox's talent, but the Jets managed to get an asset for him, though it is just a 4th, but the Flames gave up 2 Norris calibre defenseman in one trade, but then the Canes, with 0 leverage, got 2 2nds. It is so hard to predict what the return should be for a prospect who wont sign.
JetFuel
Joined: 10.08.2019

Apr 17 @ 5:48 PM ET
I hear the Calgary example a lot and while I do agree Sutter has okayed a big part in their turn around, they also brought in about 6 new key players. The jets need new coaches and some new faces.
- Ross77


Some of those new faces were former Jet Trevor Lewis, Zadorov and Gudbranson, many here would've had an epic meltdown if Chevy acquired Zadorov and Gudbranson in the offseason.. lol
JetFuel
Joined: 10.08.2019

Apr 17 @ 6:08 PM ET
I had said several years ago that Tkachuk was a better pick that Laine, I think that has become more than obvious at this stage, very talented, gets in tough areas, agitator, and. a leader . Every team needs a guy like that. Only Dubois might have the potential to be that guy but he has a ways to go to match Matthew T.

Toffoli, Coleman, and Zadorov were great pickups/trades by the Flames

If I were to grade the Jets players this year in a quick summary it would be :

Morrissey A+
Connor A
Ehlers and Dubios A-
Rest of Jets not better than a C
Coach. F
Management this season F. ( Dillon and Schmidt bad pickups , loss of Nathan Smith ,wrong coach, etc)

- jetsnation


A+ is a bit much for Morrissey, B+ or A- would be a closer grade imo.

I think the Dillon and Schmidt pickups have been fine, biggest offseason failure was doing little to nothing to improve the bottom six. Idk how Chevy doesn't see that the big the lack of secondary scoring has been a huge issue for this team for years.
Jacob Billington
Location: Westville, NS
Joined: 10.16.2021

Apr 17 @ 6:44 PM ET
A+ is a bit much for Morrissey, B+ or A- would be a closer grade imo.

I think the Dillon and Schmidt pickups have been fine, biggest offseason failure was doing little to nothing to improve the bottom six. Idk how Chevy doesn't see that the big the lack of secondary scoring has been a huge issue for this team for years.

- JetFuel


I think this was more directed at the fact they were acquired in general. 2 2nds and a 3rd for Dillon and Schmidt is not the issue. The Jets just didn't need to do it
JetFuel
Joined: 10.08.2019

Apr 17 @ 7:31 PM ET
I think this was more directed at the fact they were acquired in general. 2 2nds and a 3rd for Dillon and Schmidt is not the issue. The Jets just didn't need to do it
- Jacob Billington


They needed one of them, just not both.
TheUltimateJet
Winnipeg Jets
Joined: 07.16.2013

Apr 17 @ 7:55 PM ET
Some of those new faces were former Jet Trevor Lewis, Zadorov and Gudbranson, many here would've had an epic meltdown if Chevy acquired Zadorov and Gudbranson in the offseason.. lol
- JetFuel


This is a really good post!
Rexypoo
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Apr 18 @ 12:19 AM ET
Some of those new faces were former Jet Trevor Lewis, Zadorov and Gudbranson, many here would've had an epic meltdown if Chevy acquired Zadorov and Gudbranson in the offseason.. lol
- JetFuel


I reckon you’ve listed their only weak spots
Rexypoo
Location: Yes
Joined: 02.08.2016

Apr 18 @ 12:29 AM ET
For me, the way too many grades are as follows:

A+: Morrissey, Ehlers, Perfetti, Comrie
A: Connor, Dubois, Hellebuyck, DeMelo, Svechnikov, Copp (RIP)
B: Stastny, Schmidt, Reichel
C: Scheifele, Lowry, Appleton, Sanford, Wheeler
D: Pionk, Harkins, Toninato, Brooks
F: Stanley, Dillon

Heinola, Samberg, Barron, and Chisholm are all squarely in the category of “need more info, but very promising so far”
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