Eight 100 point teams.


Which one do you think this rag tag bunch of kids over-the-hills is gonna bump out of a spot? It's that simple. And with the way bozo deploys his troops, and Capuano the "yes man" of all yes men making sure he has a fresh bottle of Disani. We're in the running for Bedard for sure.

Boston
Pittsburgh
Washington

Maybe....MAYBE one of those three takes a step back. Maybe they re-tool and are even better.
- Octavarium

It's funny, all three of these teams have aging superstars, that like you said could take a step back, or they could keep chugging along.

It looked like Boston was faultering for a bit this year, and then they just went back to business.

But playoffs next year may be an unrealistic goal. Looking at the rest of the east, I can easily see them subplanting pretty much every team and finishing in 9th.

It's genuinely hard to assess where this team is at in terms of performance. They're currently 26th in the NHL standings with 71pts, but the majority of their underlying metrics suggest they should be better. Their goal differential is -37, which ranks 21st in the league, and 'should' position them closer to the 80pts range... roughly as good as any Eastern Conference non-playoff team (i.e. NYI, CBJ). Several other key metrics reinforce this, including goals/GP (21st), shots/GP (19th), PP% (19th), goals against/GP (20th), and PK% (13th). That said, weaker spots show through in terms of faceoff % (24th) and shots against/GP (27th), plus they're also 1 of only 2 teams in the NHL with at least 2 more wins on the road vs. at home.

Another way to interpret these metrics is in terms of marginal improvement. This is basically just estimating how far they are from being in the top-15 of these major categories, which would at least firmly put them into a wild card conversation, if not a playoff spot. Applying that logic, they would need +26G, -20GA, +1.4 shots/GP, -2 shots/GP, +1.6% PP, and +2.1 faceoff %. None of that seems unachievable on the surface, especially if they can stay relatively healthy, and make a couple of key additions. Case in point, Sanderson/Pinto could make quite a difference to the GA, and an addition like Giroux could make up a lot of the offensive gap, and make a huge impact on the faceoff %. In fact, if you exchange Paul/Tierney's faceoffs (who are both ~49% effective) with Giroux's faceoffs, Ottawa would be 12th in the NHL in faceoff %, ahead of 7 playoff teams (including COL, FLA, TB, STL, WSH).

So in many ways, it really does feel like they're approaching a competitive tipping point... potentially more so than some might realize. However, if you have clear evidence of under-achievement, you need to identify and mitigate the root causes for that. To this end, I think you really have to examine the team's coaching & management. There's no shortage of examples where poor strategic decisions and/or pointless roster congestion have led directly to on-ice consequences, and that's just not acceptable. Accountability in the front-office is long-overdue, and hopefully the 2022/23 season brings with it a new sense of expectation that if performance goals aren't met, then changes will be made... regardless of ownership.

It's genuinely hard to assess where this team is at in terms of performance. They're currently 26th in the NHL standings with 71pts, but the majority of their underlying metrics suggest they should be better. Their goal differential is -37, which ranks 21st in the league, and 'should' position them closer to the 80pts range... roughly as good as any Eastern Conference non-playoff team (i.e. NYI, CBJ). Several other key metrics reinforce this, including goals/GP (21st), shots/GP (19th), PP% (19th), goals against/GP (20th), and PK% (13th). That said, weaker spots show through in terms of faceoff % (24th) and shots against/GP (27th), plus they're also 1 of only 2 teams in the NHL with at least 2 more wins on the road vs. at home.

Another way to interpret these metrics is in terms of marginal improvement. This is basically just estimating how far they are from at least being in the top-15 of these major categories, which would at least firmly put them into a wild card conversation, if not a playoff spot. Applying that logic, they would need +26G, -20GA, +1.4 shots/GP, -2 shots/GP, and +1.6% PP. None of that seems unachievable on the surface, especially if they can stay relatively healthy, and make a couple of key additions. Case in point, Sanderson/Pinto could make quite a difference to the GA, and an addition like Giroux could make up a lot of the offensive gap, and make a huge impact on the faceoff %.

So in many ways, it really does feel like they're approaching a competitive tipping point... potentially more so than some might realize. However, if you have clear evidence of under-achievement, you need to identify and mitigate the root causes for that. To this end, I think you really have to examine the team's coaching & management. There's no shortage of examples where poor strategic decisions and/or pointless roster congestion have led directly to on-ice consequences, and that's just not acceptable. Accountability in the front-office is long-overdue, and hopefully the 2022/23 season brings with it a new sense of expectation that if performance goals aren't met, then changes will be made... regardless of ownership.
- khawk

Coaching staff change can help all of these metrics, look at what its done for CGY, EDM and MTL all saw improvements when a new coach came in, and as for CGY they went from missing to playoffs to Cup contender and best odds for a canadian team to win the cup

I am pretty sure we have the lowest paid GM and coach in the league. Short term contracts, low value. The GM position has been one of the most secure in the NHL, the coach has been a rotating door of opportunistic and promising candidates that all had zero recent NHL head coaching experience and who all rapidly fell out of favour with the GM and ownership. Patience with mediocre hires has increased as the team finances got murkier over the years - ten years ago, Smith would have been iced already.

I do believe the uncertainty and inexperience in ownership will create a decisionmaking vacuum that plays to Dorion and Smith's favour in the short run. It depends how much rope new ownership gives to somebody like a McGuire to make changes, but if somebody has to go, it should be Smith. He's objectively bad at his job.

I am pretty sure we have the lowest paid GM and coach in the league. Short term contracts, low value. The GM position has been one of the most secure in the NHL, the coach has been a rotating door of opportunistic and promising candidates that all had zero recent NHL head coaching experience and who all rapidly fell out of favour with the GM and ownership. Patience with mediocre hires has increased as the team finances got murkier over the years - ten years ago, Smith would have been iced already.

I do believe the uncertainty and inexperience in ownership will create a decisionmaking vacuum that plays to Dorion and Smith's favour in the short run. It depends how much rope new ownership gives to somebody like a McGuire to make changes, but if somebody has to go, it should be Smith. He's objectively bad at his job.
- Bartacus

100% agree with all of these points. Well said.

It would change your draft lottery odds by less than 2%.
- PuckPix

Every position closer to #1 matters imo.

I don't care about draft lottery odds since the Wings won't win the lottery no matter what their odds would be. So the lower they finish the better it is for them since they are more likely to lose a spot or two from teams behind them winning the lottery.
- dcz28

exactly. You can't fault the players for playing but the Sens need to start playing for development rather than winning. D.J Smith cares about development because it serves his job but he cares about WINNING, not drafting and all of that. He knows coaches don't last long and as a fan, we need F**ing star power to win and it always frustrates me that people think players like Pinto and even Sanderson can be compared to guys like Crosby or Hedman. Those top picks are SO critical and if you can't get top 3 picks, at least get top 5-7 picks because that's where the real talent is (Sanderson is a solid pick, I'm just saying let's no go through such a shttty year just for a 9th or 10th pick). I didn't like that Boucher pick and Logan Brown was a dumb decision already

It's genuinely hard to assess where this team is at in terms of performance. They're currently 26th in the NHL standings with 71pts, but the majority of their underlying metrics suggest they should be better. Their goal differential is -37, which ranks 21st in the league, and 'should' position them closer to the 80pts range... roughly as good as any Eastern Conference non-playoff team (i.e. NYI, CBJ). Several other key metrics reinforce this, including goals/GP (21st), shots/GP (19th), PP% (19th), goals against/GP (20th), and PK% (13th). That said, weaker spots show through in terms of faceoff % (24th) and shots against/GP (27th), plus they're also 1 of only 2 teams in the NHL with at least 2 more wins on the road vs. at home.

Another way to interpret these metrics is in terms of marginal improvement. This is basically just estimating how far they are from being in the top-15 of these major categories, which would at least firmly put them into a wild card conversation, if not a playoff spot. Applying that logic, they would need +26G, -20GA, +1.4 shots/GP, -2 shots/GP, +1.6% PP, and +2.1 faceoff %. None of that seems unachievable on the surface, especially if they can stay relatively healthy, and make a couple of key additions. Case in point, Sanderson/Pinto could make quite a difference to the GA, and an addition like Giroux could make up a lot of the offensive gap, and make a huge impact on the faceoff %. In fact, if you exchange Paul/Tierney's faceoffs (who are both ~49% effective) with Giroux's faceoffs, Ottawa would be 12th in the NHL in faceoff %, ahead of 7 playoff teams (including COL, FLA, TB, STL, WSH).

So in many ways, it really does feel like they're approaching a competitive tipping point... potentially more so than some might realize. However, if you have clear evidence of under-achievement, you need to identify and mitigate the root causes for that. To this end, I think you really have to examine the team's coaching & management. There's no shortage of examples where poor strategic decisions and/or pointless roster congestion have led directly to on-ice consequences, and that's just not acceptable. Accountability in the front-office is long-overdue, and hopefully the 2022/23 season brings with it a new sense of expectation that if performance goals aren't met, then changes will be made... regardless of ownership.
- khawk

I feel one of the biggest thing next season is maintaining the breakout progression of the core. Brady, Norris, Batherson, Stu, and Chabot are no longer well-hidden secrets. If teams can shut those guys down and you have next to no depth, next season could virtually be the same. These guys need to be insulated with quality depth and that means adding top 6 forward and top 4 d-men not adding washed up veterans and pressing your luck on the waiver wire.

I feel a top-6 forward is a realistic option to occur via trade or free agency. The defence is tricky as Dorion has too many mediocre guys under contract right now.

The discrepancy in the Eastern Conference between playoff and non-playoff teams is crazy. None of the top 8 teams seem poised for a huge regression (maybe Boston). mix that in with the other teams Ottawa is currently tight in the standings with are also poised to try and get better and make the playoffs (some closer than others). It will be a tall challenge to gain 30ish points in the standings.

I feel one of the biggest thing next season is maintaining the breakout progression of the core. Brady, Norris, Batherson, Stu, and Chabot are no longer well-hidden secrets. If teams can shut those guys down and you have next to no depth, next season could virtually be the same. These guys need to be insulated with quality depth and that means adding top 6 forward and top 4 d-men not adding washed up veterans and pressing your luck on the waiver wire.

I feel a top-6 forward is a realistic option to occur via trade or free agency. The defence is tricky as Dorion has too many mediocre guys under contract right now.

The discrepancy in the Eastern Conference between playoff and non-playoff teams is crazy. None of the top 8 teams seem poised for a huge regression (maybe Boston). mix that in with the other teams Ottawa is currently tight in the standings with are also poised to try and get better and make the playoffs (some closer than others). It will be a tall challenge to gain 30ish points in the standings.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

If some of those non playoff teams in the Eastern Conference do show better next year as many are suggesting will happen then maybe not all playoff teams are going to be boasting 100+ point seasons and the threshold for playoff qualification will revert to more traditional season point totals.

I still don't think they'll get there if for no other reason than Smith will continue to play the current D. Sanderson and Thomson will get a look and be paired with Hamonic or MDZ or Brannstrom for a few games and then be sent back to Belleville. Only once these D prospects are brought into the lineup and allowed to develop will the team have any chance at a shot at the post season. I'd pair Thomson with Chabot and Sanderson with Zub and can't imagine the results being worse than Zaitsev, Hamonic, Brannstrom or MDZ.

The situation in net needs to be sorted because Forsberg can't play 50 plus games without starting to leak. Hopefully Gus will be able to shoulder half the load. Or will it be Murray back again?

Acquiring a bona fide top six RW would be nice but I can't imagine Dorion doing anything that makes sense. I think they might see Joseph as a possible top six RW and I'd rather that than letting Dorion work his acquisition magic and hopefully there is some kind of oversight mechanism in place to prevent him from screwing the pooch too badly.

If some of those non playoff teams in the Eastern Conference do show better next year as many are suggesting will happen then maybe not all playoff teams are going to be boasting 100+ point seasons and the threshold for playoff qualification will revert to more traditional season point totals.

I still don't think they'll get there if for no other reason than Smith will continue to play the current D. Sanderson and Thomson will get a look and be paired with Hamonic for a few games each and then be sent back to Belleville. Only once these D prospects are brought into the lineup will they have any chance.

The situation in net needs to be sorted because Forsberg can't play 50 plus games without starting to leak. Hopefully Gus will be able to shoulder half the load. Or will it be Murray back again?

Acquiring a bona fide top six RW would be nice but I can't imagine doing anything that makes sense.
- Whatisavailable

Absolutely. If the East gets more competitive, the points required to get in, will likely be a bit lower but will have more teams to compete with.

The team as it stands right now won't go much further. Perhaps a handful of more wins if the team stays fully healthy, but what team is fully healthy for 82 games nowadays? Depth has been a severely underrated area of concern for this team ever since the 07 cup run. Until that is addressed with quality depth and not space fillers for the sake of making moves, the team will stay just above the terrible teams and well below the competitive teams.

Absolutely. If the East gets more competitive, the points required to get in, will likely be a bit lower but will have more teams to compete with.

The team as it stands right now won't go much further. Perhaps a handful of more wins if the team stays fully healthy, but what team is fully healthy for 82 games nowadays? Depth has been a severely underrated area of concern for this team ever since the 07 cup run. Until that is addressed with quality depth and not space fillers for the sake of making moves, the team will stay just above the terrible teams and well below the competitive teams.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

I am not sure the Sens do it next year but they are a lot closer than it sometimes would appear. If they score 20 more goals and give up 20 less goals over next season they will be relevant in the second half of the season.

I am not sure the Sens do it next year but they are a lot closer than it sometimes would appear. If they score 20 more goals and give up 20 less goals over next season they will be relevant in the second half of the season.
- spatso

You do realize a 40 goal differential turn around would still put Ottawa 21pts out of playoff spot and be slotted around Columbus and the Isles in the standings?

Watched the 67s get swept tonight at the Civic and got to see Boucher up front. He's definitely an energy agitator and a hitter, but he definitely focused too much on being a d*ck to North Bay's top draftee Ty Nelson and not enough on the puck.

That said, looking at another player Dorion picked who looked like a total bust for several years in Viktor Lodin, man that kid appears to have turned it around. yes, he was a fourth round pick, but he's not looking like a total bust.
So maybe, glass half full, somewhere down the line there's a silver lining with Boucher. Befuddling as the pick might have been, if we could tolerate waiting for Logan Brown to make the show and then accept him leaving for essentially nothing, we can all afford a bit more patience with Boucher.

I was doing some fun fact finding on how players did that were traded at the deadline this year. Here is what got for the Sens. I will post more of this in other teams threads.

Sanford in 16 games with the Jets, 3 assists.
Brown in 5 games with the Bruins, zero everything and a healthy scratch most nights.
Paul in 19 games with the Lightning, 5G, 9A and a +6.

Great discussion! I will be jumping in here this afternoon after work.

I was doing some fun fact finding on how players did that were traded at the deadline this year. Here is what got for the Sens. I will post more of this in other teams threads.

Sanford in 16 games with the Jets, 3 assists.
Brown in 5 games with the Bruins, zero everything and a healthy scratch most nights.
Paul in 19 games with the Lightning, 5G, 9A and a +6.
- PuckPix

Sanford, incredible.....this guy was useless here and he actually went downhill after the trade! wow!

Watched the 67s get swept tonight at the Civic and got to see Boucher up front. He's definitely an energy agitator and a hitter, but he definitely focused too much on being a d*ck to North Bay's top draftee Ty Nelson and not enough on the puck.

That said, looking at another player Dorion picked who looked like a total bust for several years in Viktor Lodin, man that kid appears to have turned it around. yes, he was a fourth round pick, but he's not looking like a total bust.
So maybe, glass half full, somewhere down the line there's a silver lining with Boucher. Befuddling as the pick might have been, if we could tolerate waiting for Logan Brown to make the show and then accept him leaving for essentially nothing, we can all afford a bit more patience with Boucher.
- Bartacus

I think it happens a lot, players who might not look as good as the scouts thought, but it also works the other way when guys shine comes off and they look like a 3rd round pick, not a first round pick 2 years later because they don't develop their junior skills into pro skills. Good post.

Every position closer to #1 matters imo.



exactly. You can't fault the players for playing but the Sens need to start playing for development rather than winning. D.J Smith cares about development because it serves his job but he cares about WINNING, not drafting and all of that. He knows coaches don't last long and as a fan, we need F**ing star power to win and it always frustrates me that people think players like Pinto and even Sanderson can be compared to guys like Crosby or Hedman. Those top picks are SO critical and if you can't get top 3 picks, at least get top 5-7 picks because that's where the real talent is (Sanderson is a solid pick, I'm just saying let's no go through such a shttty year just for a 9th or 10th pick). I didn't like that Boucher pick and Logan Brown was a dumb decision already
- AlfieisKing

That's why possibly dropping to 10th in the draft like last year due to a great fools gold finish is frustrating. Missing out on top 5 talent can really accelerate the rebuild if you hit on a few top end talents.

Only 13,101 at the NJ game, disappointing!

Only 13,101 at the NJ game, disappointing!
- Kevin Francis

Not bad for a Tuesday game against a bottom team that no one like. Apparently the ambiance was good

You do realize a 40 goal differential turn around would still put Ottawa 21pts out of playoff spot and be slotted around Columbus and the Isles in the standings?
- PuckPix

I calculated it differently. Assumed a small improvement for all the bottom feeder teams in the East resulting in a more balanced point distribution for all teams. Believe a 90 point season (Vegas, Vancouver,) will make a team relevant in the second half and 96 points likely earns them a playoff spot.

That's why possibly dropping to 10th in the draft like last year due to a great fools gold finish is frustrating. Missing out on top 5 talent can really accelerate the rebuild if you hit on a few top end talents.
- Kevin Francis

EXACTLY.

If the Sens finished 10th last year and THEN came out flying this season, that would be different. But if you miss out on a top 5 pick then draft, then finish 10th, THEN take a questionable pick with Tyler Boucher (rather than Cole Sillinger who is killing it) it is indeed frustrating

I calculated it differently. Assumed a small improvement for all the bottom feeder teams in the East resulting in a more balanced point distribution for all teams. Believe a 90 point season (Vegas, Vancouver,) will make a team relevant in the second half and 96 points likely earns them a playoff spot.
- spatso

The power has shifted to the east, only 4 teams in the west would make playoffs in the east. East will only get stronger with teams like Detroit and Buffalo starting to see their prospects grow. NJ should take a jump too. If Philly hires Tocchet as head coach they’ll take a leap too. East is loaded.

Plus you never know with any team year to year. Habs have the number one payroll in the NHL but 32nd in the league standings. Cup final to possible number one overall pick in less than a year.

Only 13,101 at the NJ game, disappointing!
- Kevin Francis

but sure....lets build another "empty building" down town. And to get the ball rolling, OSEG comes out and asks for more for the North Side and Civic Centre rebuild. 67's by all accounts were barely drawing friends'n'family for their play off games. The RedBlacks should be better this year, but Landsdowne is a ghost town.

The power has shifted to the east, only 4 teams in the west would make playoffs in the east. East will only get stronger with teams like Detroit and Buffalo starting to see their prospects grow. NJ should take a jump too. If Philly hires Tocchet as head coach they’ll take a leap too. East is loaded.
- PuckPix

Exactly.

As the teams lower in the standings are able to move up in point total it creates more parity and the hope that 94 to 98 point range becomes possible for multiple teams as you go deeper into the season. When too many teams can gun for the 100 point total it creates a huge disparity resulting in multiple teams falling off the pace by Christmas. .