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Forums :: Blog World :: Kevin Francis: April fools gold for Sens fans again?!
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Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Apr 26 @ 9:58 PM ET
Tweet from Shawn Simpson earlier, he nailed it!

From what I've seen out of Hamonic the mobility isn't good enough to play top 4, or really help the 64 million dollar man Chabot.

Dorion now has 4 bottom pairing D on the books.

4.5 Zaitsev
3.25 Hamonic
2.25 Del Zotto
1.3 Holden

11.3 million, with Holden being the best value.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Apr 26 @ 10:05 PM ET
Great game. stutzle seems to improve every game out
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Apr 26 @ 10:07 PM ET
So this coach of ours tells us he doesn't change a winning lineup unless an injury occurs. So why does he take MDZ out tonight for Zaitsev?! This is the problem here folks, until PD takes away Zaitsev this team is a bigger mess on defense. What is that telling the other players on the team that MDZ comes out for no reason just like DJ made him the scapegoat after the NYR game 2 weeks ago. MDZ has been jerked around for a Zaitsev when MDZ has actually played fine since returning. In fact that pairing of him and Hamonic has been solid too. As long as DJ is here, this team ain't sniffing the playoffs. How many times do we have to watch DJ put out the 4th line after the opposition scores? How many times did anyone watch Ruff get the match ups he wanted tonight for his rookies when DJ had last line change. That is how they erased that 4-2 lead by Ottawa. What a mess!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Apr 26 @ 10:09 PM ET
Great game. stutzle seems to improve every game out
- spatso


Great game....no, rephrase that.....entertaining game! But if they play like that against any competent team and they would've lost tonight. Giving up 41 shots on goal, getting outcoached literally in every aspect tonight, that D is a mess. Sure Stutzle is doing great, but he doesn't play defense or coach, that is the problem with this team! Bottom 5 team win with so many regulars out of the line up and they push it to OT! Unreal. Forsberg cant sustain 55-60 games in goal facing that kind of rubber, any NHL coach or scout or personnel will tell you it has to change!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Apr 26 @ 10:35 PM ET
The roster should look markedly different next year, so here's hoping a solid offseason can yield results. If this team doesn't start out .500 by November, however, I hope they start looking at the office to make changes.
- Bartacus


I'm not so sure. I certainly hope so but Pinto has 17 NHL games and Sanderson zero, yet this team is going to rely heavily on them, Jake in the top 4 with zero experience and Pinto off a serious shoulder injury too. The defense will be status quo outside of Sanderson, that is an average group and it will be their Achilles heel!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Apr 26 @ 10:37 PM ET
Great subject, I wonder if consideration needs to be given to the vulnerability of a young players bone structure early in their NHL career. Hitting is part of the game and successful teams tend to hit (rather than be hit). The team’s with the least hits tend to come from the bottom feeders in the standings. But, this group tend to include most of the younger teams following a developmental cycle (bottom 3 in hits are Buffalo, NJ Devils and Detroit).

But two really dominant indicators jump out when looking at the numbers.

First, it appears that Eastern teams do more hitting than Western teams. Except for Nashville, the teams with the most hits are Eastern Conference teams.

Second, except for Ottawa, those teams that lead the East in hits appear to include some of the teams that you might expect to have some playoff success this year. The Eastern teams with the most hits are:

Ottawa
Boston
Tampa Bay
New York Rangers
Washington
Florida Panthers

statmuse

- spatso


The other playoff teams know when to play it heavy and when to play it with skill, but they all have great coaches that literally earn their teams wins on those nights that they might not be bringing it. Someone mentioned it on here, a team like Ottawa has zero puck management so they are chasing the opposition a lot, leading to a lot of unnecessary hits, but with Ottawa they don't need that as it wears them down!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Apr 26 @ 10:38 PM ET
Will it, though? Beyond Chabot/Zub, Hamhuis, Zaitsev, Holden, and Del Zotto are already signed for next year, and I'm not sure Dorion's ego can handle a Brannstrom trade. At forward, Tkachuk, Norris, Batherson, Stutzle, Brown, Formenton, White, Joseph, and Watson are already lined up... which is the entire top-6, plus most of the 3rd line. A healthy Pinto would be nice, but he may be the only significant young forward addition. Meanwhile, the actual job of goaltending will continue to revolve around Forsberg & Gustavsson, despite the $hit-show of whatever's going on with Murray.

Unfortunately, I think moves like Joseph/Hamhuis plus the Forsberg extension account for most of what Dorion was looking to do in the off-season (i.e. we're already seeing it). I'd love to think Giroux is in the cards, but I'm not quite that naive. Sanderson is the wild card, and may well have a substantial impact... but only if they can navigate him through the veteran clutter on the blue line, which is something they've done a conspicuously bad job at with other 1st-round quality D-men.

- khawk


You are right on with this post. Just look at the tweet from Shawn Simpson that I posted. This defense is a mess and you have a coach that is lost, in over his head so badly, that how do you dig yourself out of the contracts on defense?!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Apr 26 @ 10:39 PM ET
Great point by you. Forsberg started more game in the 2nd half of the season, on the telecast tonight they said he leads the league in 40 + save games with 9. That can't happen next year or they will be nowhere near the playoffs. Mike Johnson said it best during the second period, you don't have 10 games to feel it out next year to start the season. He said you have to be ready from Game 1 to earn as many points as possible or they will find themselves on the outside looking in again.
- LawyerSens4Life

There is no way Forsberg can keep this up next year over 60 games, he will get worn down!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Apr 26 @ 10:40 PM ET
As a side note, it looks like Belleville clinched?
- david22


Yes, what would be even better is if they can land in the top 3 and avoid the 3 game series play in for the 4/5 spot.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Apr 26 @ 10:45 PM ET
I hope others jump in here after they get back from the game, off to bed.
Crosside
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.14.2019

Apr 26 @ 10:58 PM ET
Woo hoo 4 in row since 2017 ataboy DJ
LawyerSens4Life
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 03.23.2022

Apr 26 @ 11:21 PM ET
Tweet from Shawn Simpson earlier, he nailed it!

From what I've seen out of Hamonic the mobility isn't good enough to play top 4, or really help the 64 million dollar man Chabot.

Dorion now has 4 bottom pairing D on the books.

4.5 Zaitsev
3.25 Hamonic
2.25 Del Zotto
1.3 Holden

11.3 million, with Holden being the best value.

- Kevin Francis


As the TSN panel said, specifically Methot, Hamonic is who we thought he was. Thank you Simmer for putting it out there and for fans who have no idea how bad this team is defensively, this will put them in their place.
LawyerSens4Life
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 03.23.2022

Apr 26 @ 11:33 PM ET
Woo hoo 4 in row since 2017 ataboy DJ
- Crosside


Mindless to think DJ got them the win. Pretty pathetic cheering about 4 wins in a row for the first time in 5 years, I know my buddies and I are embarrassed that it took DJ 3 years to pull off that pathetic feat and 5 years as an organization. But I guess you want to accept mediocrity or bottom 10 finishes because that is what this team has given you for years with this management team. But you are drinking the Dorion kool-aid like other delusional fans.

I made a point of listening to DJ tonight and he said how bad they were defensively. You think? Ottawa gave up 14 odd man rushes, 11 giveaways on top of it in the offensive zone. Nothing like beating the 28th place team in OT and giving up 41 shots to a team that had rookie after rookie in the line up. I'm glad Ottawa scored 5 goals on a defense that had this much youth. Let's not forget that Blackwood started his game in goal for NJ since Jan. 19th.

Bahl - 15 career games
Walsh - first ever NHL game tonight
Geersten - 25 career games
White - 27 career games

Forwards -
Foote - 10 career games
Zetterland - 12 career games

Stutzle starts his postgame press conference by saying how they can't play like that and how they won't win many games playing like that. Exactly. Thankfully he gets it.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Apr 27 @ 5:17 AM ET
Mindless to think DJ got them the win. Pretty pathetic cheering about 4 wins in a row for the first time in 5 years, I know my buddies and I are embarrassed that it took DJ 3 years to pull off that pathetic feat and 5 years as an organization. But I guess you want to accept mediocrity or bottom 10 finishes because that is what this team has given you for years with this management team. But you are drinking the Dorion kool-aid like other delusional fans.

I made a point of listening to DJ tonight and he said how bad they were defensively. You think? Ottawa gave up 14 odd man rushes, 11 giveaways on top of it in the offensive zone. Nothing like beating the 28th place team in OT and giving up 41 shots to a team that had rookie after rookie in the line up. I'm glad Ottawa scored 5 goals on a defense that had this much youth. Let's not forget that Blackwood started his game in goal for NJ since Jan. 19th.

Bahl - 15 career games
Walsh - first ever NHL game tonight
Geersten - 25 career games
White - 27 career games

Forwards -
Foote - 10 career games
Zetterland - 12 career games

Stutzle starts his postgame press conference by saying how they can't play like that and how they won't win many games playing like that. Exactly. Thankfully he gets it.

- LawyerSens4Life


Pretty good!

We all understand that defence wins when it matters, especially in the playoffs.

A coach or a commentator will tell a young team that you have to play a better defensive game in order to win, especially in the playoffs. But, as Jacques Martin would often say, it does not matter what the coaches say until the players figure it out for themselves. I am certain Stutzle is saying what the other kids are beginning to accept. Winning regularly requires a commitment to team D.

Even the bad games offer up teachable moments. Are these kids talented enough to flip a switch and play a better defensive game. Absolutely. Will it happen next season? Summer hockey talk begins for Sens fans next week.
PuckPix
Joined: 01.12.2021

Apr 27 @ 6:02 AM ET
How does the Sens best defensive dman snd most reliable dman get the least amount of icetime last night? Zaitsev got over two minutes more than Zub. Your coach is out of touch with reality
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Apr 27 @ 6:21 AM ET
Stutzle now has 57 points. Maybe he hits 60 in his sophomore season?

Does he start next season as the #1C?

I like Batherson with Stutzle. Love Formenton but prefer to see him on third line, on the pk and lining up against other team’s top offensive player. I think Formenton has all the tools to become an elite defensive forward and still give you 20-25 goals a year.

When team’s rebuild they often make the mistake of moving too early and trying to bring in the extra pieces necessary to win in the stretch drive. They can become an elite regular season team without the depth to go deep into the playoffs (in my mind the best example of this is The Leafs bringing in Tavares a year or two too early.)

But there is the other side of the same issue. Some teams wait too long. They miss on the chance to maximize their competitive window.

I want to believe the Sens are ready to make a huge leap forward next year. My heart tells me they should be trying to add one more elite scoring forward. My head says no. It is still too soon. Give the kids another year to grow their games.

Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Apr 27 @ 6:33 AM ET
This D is awful. They gave up 41 shots to NJ, like someone said on here, NJ is a bottom 5 in the league. Look at the line up they iced tonight? No Jack Hughes or Nike H. It's filled with rookies. They blow a 4-2 lead to this garbage team. Oh ya, Ottawa is going to contend for the playoffs next year.
- Kevin Francis

Not if Smith can help it.

If Sanderson and Thomson are ready to play top 4 D it would make a huge difference. Guys like Stutzle play a very responsible defensive game when the puck is in their own end, always back to help out the D deep in their own end. One of the problems they will face, however, is that when the puck is in their own zone Tkachuk is on the opposing blue line waiting for a pass and Norris is in the center ice area also waiting for a pass. I don't know if those 2 rookies on D will be able will be good enough to not look bad as a result of that kind of lazy play by the Tkachuk/Norris tandem, which Smith seems to be OK with. and is all the excuse Smith will need to send them back to Belleville once again saddling the ream with the likes of Zaitsev and Hamonic playing big minutes.

Also I don't think Forsberg can handle 50 games even with a moderate number of shots coming his way and there is just no way to have any idea how Smith and Dorion will deal with that issue.

If Smith and Dorion were competent I think the team would be playing meaningful games in the Spring but I'm thinking that's not going to happen.
LawyerSens4Life
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 03.23.2022

Apr 27 @ 6:39 AM ET
How does the Sens best defensive dman snd most reliable dman get the least amount of icetime last night? Zaitsev got over two minutes more than Zub. Your coach is out of touch with reality
- PuckPix


Ok so now I'm furious, I hadn't looked much at time on the blueline. It's even worse than I thought after reading your post. Holden had 5 more min. than Zub and Hamoic Mr. -2 had almost 7 min. more than Zub. Brannstrom had almost 20 min. This coach needs to give his head a serious shake if he's going to keep distributing minutes this way. Chabot was awful defensively last night now it doesn't help that he doesn't have a steady partner, but Chabot is out of position far too much. I wish I could type more but works calls, gotta get ready.
LawyerSens4Life
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 03.23.2022

Apr 27 @ 6:40 AM ET
Not if Smith can help it.

If Sanderson and Thomson are ready to play top 4 D it would make a huge difference. Guys like Stutzle play a very responsible defensive game when the puck is in their own end, always back to help out the D deep in their own end. One of the problems they will face, however, is that when the puck is in their own zone Tkachuk is on the opposing blue line waiting for a pass and Norris is in the center ice area also waiting for a pass. I don't know if those 2 rookies on D will be able will be good enough to not look bad as a result of that kind of lazy play by the Tkachuk/Norris tandem, which Smith seems to be OK with. and is all the excuse Smith will need to send them back to Belleville once again saddling the ream with the likes of Zaitsev and Hamonic playing big minutes.

Also I don't think Forsberg can handle 50 games even with a moderate number of shots coming his way and there is just no way to have any idea how Smith and Dorion will deal with that issue.

If Smith and Dorion were competent I think the team would be playing meaningful games in the Spring but I'm thinking that's not going to happen.

- Whatisavailable


Wish I could reply more, but there were 6 raw rookies in the line up last night for NJ.
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Apr 27 @ 6:55 AM ET
Wish I could reply more, but there were 6 raw rookies in the line up last night for NJ.
- LawyerSens4Life

I saw one of those shot distribution charts a while back covering Hamonic's time in Vancouver. This chart showed the shots Vancouver faced when Hamonic was on the ice and another showed shots faced when he was off the ice. It wasn't pretty. As a matter of fact it was awful. Difficult to understand that acquisition.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Apr 27 @ 7:08 AM ET
Ok so now I'm furious, I hadn't looked much at time on the blueline. It's even worse than I thought after reading your post. Holden had 5 more min. than Zub and Hamoic Mr. -2 had almost 7 min. more than Zub. Brannstrom had almost 20 min. This coach needs to give his head a serious shake if he's going to keep distributing minutes this way. Chabot was awful defensively last night now it doesn't help that he doesn't have a steady partner, but Chabot is out of position far too much. I wish I could type more but works calls, gotta get ready.
- LawyerSens4Life


Well done. Maybe you are beginning to see some light.

It is just not Chabot. The kids forget they need to play defence, the forwards need to come back. The Sens do not have veteran leadership to show them how to close out a 2 goal lead in the third period.

So, kids need to figure it out for themselves. This is not a coaching issue. It is a cognitive and experience matter. Telling people something means nothing. You have to show them. I suppose it starts with Tkachuck and Chabot.

If you want to win you have to stop the other guy from scoring.

Do the Sens come back next year with some fire in their belly. Do they come to training camp knowing that improved team defence is the missing essential ingrediant for overall team performance.


Mithos
Joined: 04.14.2021

Apr 27 @ 8:45 AM ET
If OTT does nothing but sign their RFAs and some plug UFAs they will be a bottom 10 team again next year.

If OTT fires Smith and hires a actual NHL coach with hundreds of games in experience, they can get 15-20 more points than what they have now.

If OTT fires Smith and hires a actual NHL coach with hundreds of games in experience, Sign Giroux to a good deal they can be in a wild card hunt like Vegas and Van are now.

If OTT fires Smith and hires a actual NHL coach with hundreds of games in experience, Sign Giroux to a good deal and trade for Fiala they will be in the wild card and might push one of TOR or Tampa out of the top 3.

All this assuming minimum injuries, Sanderson comes as hyped and the Duo of Forsberg and Gus perform well. Murray and or zeitsev traded, Burried or bought out.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Apr 27 @ 8:54 AM ET
If OTT does nothing but sign their RFAs and some plug UFAs they will be a bottom 10 team again next year.

If OTT fires Smith and hires a actual NHL coach with hundreds of games in experience, they can get 15-20 more points than what they have now.

If OTT fires Smith and hires a actual NHL coach with hundreds of games in experience, Sign Giroux to a good deal they can be in a wild card hunt like Vegas and Van are now.

If OTT fires Smith and hires a actual NHL coach with hundreds of games in experience, Sign Giroux to a good deal and trade for Fiala they will be in the wild card and might push one of TOR or Tampa out of the top 3.

All this assuming minimum injuries, Sanderson comes as hyped and the Duo of Forsberg and Gus perform well. Murray and or zeitsev traded, Burried or bought out.

- Mithos


You are more optimistic than I am. I don’t see any change in the front office or in coaching staff until ownership and Lebreton get fully thrashed out. I do not expect a lot of changes on the ice other than for some of the kids moving up.
SensFan25
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 08.24.2006

Apr 27 @ 9:26 AM ET
Chabot was awful defensively last night now it doesn't help that he doesn't have a steady partner, but Chabot is out of position far too much.
- LawyerSens4Life

Agreed!
Octavarium
New York Islanders
Joined: 01.03.2007

Apr 27 @ 10:24 AM ET
Eight 100 point teams.


Which one do you think this rag tag bunch of kids over-the-hills is gonna bump out of a spot? It's that simple. And with the way bozo deploys his troops, and Capuano the "yes man" of all yes men making sure he has a fresh bottle of Disani. We're in the running for Bedard for sure.

Boston
Pittsburgh
Washington

Maybe....MAYBE one of those three takes a step back. Maybe they re-tool and are even better.
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