I really get the feeling that Giroux resigns in Florida!
- Kevin Francis

I'll take that bet. Florida is pretty close to the cap, is now paying $4.1M/yr more for Barkov, they'll have a similar contract pressures with Huberdeau next year, they have major holes on their blueline, and they just had a massive playoff failure. Unless it's a 1yr deal (and I have no idea why Giroux would do that), I don't think Giroux will be back with Florida.

FLA has 16 player signed for 22-23 and less than 4M in cap space, they are gonna try hard to trade Hörnqvist to free up his 5.3M to get players to fill out the roster, unless Giroux accept league minimum, he aint gonna be a panther next year

I'm also worried about Dorion overpaying for Fiala, mostly because I assume he'll look at him as an 80 point player instead of a 55-60.

But.. the more I read, the more I think it may not be a given it would blow up in Ottawa's face. It would plug a major hole on the RW, and it wouls signal to some of the core that they are trying to address the teams stagnation.

Also, while his numbers were lower in each of the two previous seasons, both of those were shortened years. Anyone know how much he played with Kaprizov this year?

Minni is in a weakened position, so it would be nice if that would effect his cost, but that only seems to effect Ottawa more than other teams.
- david22

Fiala never played on a line with Kaprizov at all. Fiala played on the 2nd PP most of the year but got some PP time with Kirill later in the year. He drove play and created scoring chances early in the year but was snakebit. Boldy and Fiala developed amazing chemistry which elevated Fiala’s play more than anything else.Fiala used to be a turnover machine but benching has cured much of that. His defensive play has improved to the point that this year the Wild had him killing penalties. But Fiala disappeared in the playoffs the last 2 years. I think Guerin was trying to get creative to sign him until he cratered in the playoffs.

Fiala never played on a line with Kaprizov at all. Fiala played on the 2nd PP most of the year but got some PP time with Kirill later in the year. He drove play and created scoring chances early in the year but was snakebit. Boldy and Fiala developed amazing chemistry which elevated Fiala’s play more than anything else.Fiala used to be a turnover machine but benching has cured much of that. His defensive play has improved to the point that this year the Wild had him killing penalties. But Fiala disappeared in the playoffs the last 2 years. I think Guerin was trying to get creative to sign him until he cratered in the playoffs.
- Minnyhock

The one part of Fiala's stat line that really stands out is his exceptionally high ES production... he was 10th in the entire NHL, behind only the likes of McDavid/Draisaitl, Gaudreau/Tkachuk, Matthews/Marner, Stamkos, Huberdeau, and Kaprizov, and had significantly less ice time than most of those players. That is absolutely elite company in terms of production, and those players are all clearly top-line quality. Which raises the question of why Fiala wouldn't have been playing more regularly on the top line, or even the #1 unit of just the 18th-most effective PP in the NHL? It may just be a similar situation to when Ottawa had to play Hossa/Alfredsson at RW on different lines, or it may speak to significant deficiencies in other aspects of Fiala's game.

The one part of Fiala's stat line that really stands out is his exceptionally high ES production... he was 10th in the entire NHL, behind only the likes of McDavid/Draisaitl, Gaudreau/Tkachuk, Matthews/Marner, Stamkos, Huberdeau, and Kaprizov, and had significantly less ice time than most of those players. That is absolutely elite company in terms of production, and those players are all clearly top-line quality. Which raises the question of why Fiala wouldn't have been playing more regularly on the top line, or even the #1 unit of just the 18th-most effective PP in the NHL? It may just be a similar situation to when Ottawa had to play Hossa/Alfredsson at RW on different lines, or it may speak to significant deficiencies in other aspects of Fiala's game.
- khawk

Fiala was incredible during the regular season. He would have had 100+ points had he cashed in on his numerous early season chances. Kaprizov and Zuccarello have had great chemistry for the last 2 years so that puts Fiala on the 2nd line. Fiala isn’t a center and Hartman was converted to center to play on the 1st line. Yes, Fiala has deficiencies in other areas. Evason doesn’t trust him much protecting a late lead. But if they’re down a goal or more in the 3rd, he gets double shifted. He’s extremely creative with the puck but has a tendency to make careless cross ice passes and drop passes that go the other way for a high danger chance or a goal. Like most players with his skill set, he’s high risk high reward.

Right now Chabot and Tkachuk are in the 8 million range. Norris, Stutzle and very likely Sanderson will be in the same range. That's 40 million for 5 guys. Which one of them do you want to get rid of so you can afford Fiala? Either that or get rid of guys like Batherson and Zub and Pinto and Formenton and replace them with marginal NHL players or AHL lifers. Wow! What a great idea. Create a team that is still playing meaningful games in March and fighting for a wild card spot for years and years to come.

Tampa only has 5 guys at around 8 million and a goalie. You need your depth if you're going to win and Ottawa doesn't have the tax advantages that Tampa enjoys. They need to develop internally, draft well, and hope that one of their goalie prospects is for real and that Forsberg can take care of business for now.

All it would take for them to have a better start next year is for Sanderson to be a quick study. Mann says Thomson is NHL ready. Just an improvement on D with those two guys would do it.

Screw this nonsense about acquiring a top 6 forward or a top 4 D unless they have manageable contracts with term and they are a steal asset wise which is unlikely especially when the Sens can't weaponize their cap space.

Right now Chabot and Tkachuk are in the 8 million range. Norris, Stutzle and very likely Sanderson will be in the same range. That's 40 million for 5 guys. Which one of them do you want to get rid of so you can afford Fiala? Either that or get rid of guys like Batherson and Zub and Pinto and Formenton and replace them with marginal NHL players or AHL lifers. Wow! What a great idea. Create a team that is still playing meaningful games in March and fighting for a wild card spot for years and years to come.

Tampa only has 5 guys at around 8 million and a goalie. You need your depth if you're going to win and Ottawa doesn't have the tax advantages that Tampa enjoys. They need to develop internally, draft well, and hope that one of their goalie prospects is for real and that Forsberg can take care of business for now.

All it would take for them to have a better start next year is for Sanderson to be a quick study. Mann says Thomson is NHL ready. Just an improvement on D with those two guys would do it.

Screw this nonsense about acquiring a top 6 forward or a top 4 D unless they have manageable contracts with term and they are a steal asset wise which is unlikely especially when they can't weaponize their cap space.
- Whatisavailable

Your 3rd paragraph is right on the money! Injecting Sanderson and Thomson into the top 4 would be ideal, but sadly we have a coach that is.....well I don't need say it anymore, you can finish my phrase sadly. Great post as always.

I urge everyone to read Ian Mendes last 2 pieces at the Athletic. I am working on a few pieces as we speak! Keep up the great discussion everyone. Thanks!

Mike Russo who covers the Wild had a great piece in the Athletic about Fiala and Dumba.....worthy reading too!

Sounds like the Pens wont qualify RW Kasperi Kapanen, would anyone on here want to bring him into the fold? Just throwing it out there for discussion.

Tweet tonight from Simmer.


Shawn Simpson
@TSNSimmer
·
2h
Burakovsky Stützle Batherson

Free player.

Tweet tonight from Simmer.


Shawn Simpson
@TSNSimmer
·
2h
Burakovsky Stützle Batherson

Free player.
- Kevin Francis

Dadonov 2.0 stay away

Sounds like the Pens wont qualify RW Kasperi Kapanen, would anyone on here want to bring him into the fold? Just throwing it out there for discussion.
- Kevin Francis

Fair question!

I would offer a 1 year @2.25M (nothing more), due to risk to reward and options (trade, resigning, letting go)

The Sens have a better version of him - called Connor Brown

I think KK will someone that never hits his full potential but will play hockey for a long time (either in the NHL or across the Atlantic)

Dadonov 2.0 stay away
- Mithos

While I respect your opinion, Dadonov never won a stanley cup. He has 4 playoff games (no goals!) under his belt while Burakovsky has 18 playoff goals - more than ALL players on our team, putting aside Austin Watson

Right now Chabot and Tkachuk are in the 8 million range. Norris, Stutzle and very likely Sanderson will be in the same range. That's 40 million for 5 guys. Which one of them do you want to get rid of so you can afford Fiala? Either that or get rid of guys like Batherson and Zub and Pinto and Formenton and replace them with marginal NHL players or AHL lifers. Wow! What a great idea. Create a team that is still playing meaningful games in March and fighting for a wild card spot for years and years to come.

Tampa only has 5 guys at around 8 million and a goalie. You need your depth if you're going to win and Ottawa doesn't have the tax advantages that Tampa enjoys. They need to develop internally, draft well, and hope that one of their goalie prospects is for real and that Forsberg can take care of business for now.

All it would take for them to have a better start next year is for Sanderson to be a quick study. Mann says Thomson is NHL ready. Just an improvement on D with those two guys would do it.

Screw this nonsense about acquiring a top 6 forward or a top 4 D unless they have manageable contracts with term and they are a steal asset wise which is unlikely especially when the Sens can't weaponize their cap space.
- Whatisavailable

TB is definitely the model to look at regarding the sustainment of a competitive team nucleus, though your numbers are a bit off. Their top-5 players account for more like $45M (i.e. $9M each, not $8M), and if you include McDonagh it pushes their top-6 over the $50M mark. The Senators' top-6 currently presents itself as Tkachuk, Stutzle, Norris, Batherson, Chabot, and Sanderson, which - even if you presume $8M/yr deals for all of the RFA - would eventually come in around the $45M mark. That said, they have a 2yr runway before reaching that mark (i.e. Stutzle/Sanderson still on ELC), at which point they'll also be freeing up over $10M in the Zaitsev/Murray deals. That creates quite a nice pocket of 3-4yrs where another high-$$$ player could be added to the roster, if they really fit in with the team's identity and development plan.

The latter is the problem... the team is still trying to discover its identity. We've seen Chabot plus the top line emerge, but the scaffolding is still up over the rest of the lineup. Stutzle was thrown into the 2nd line fire, and responded admirably - but its unclear that there's even 1 other NHL-quality top-6F in the prospect system. They invested 1st round picks in 3 straight drafts to build up quality/depth on the blue line, but those 3 players have just 29GP combined in the NHL. Now, a lot could change in the coming year with Sanderson, Pinto, and Thomson expected to make an impact, but I disagree that they can afford to not at least try to add 1 high-quality player to the roster. Where we agree is that Fiala is a bad fit... too many question marks, too high an asset-cost, and too much of a contract expectation.

This is yet another reason why I see Giroux as a near-perfect fit, if he's genuinely as interested as rumors have suggested. Even if you have to overpay him slightly, you give up no assets in return, retain your top-10 pick at the draft, and gain a player who provides a wealth of proven ability and veteran mentorship to a group in dire need of both. His deal could be reasonably kept to a 3/4 year term, which is well within the range of time they have to manage new deals for many of their young assets. This is where they would be wise to also learn from TB in terms of effectively using bridge deals to layer contracts over time, and maximize their competitive window.

TB is definitely the model to look at regarding the sustainment of a competitive team nucleus, though your numbers are a bit off. Their top-5 players account for more like $45M (i.e. $9M each, not $8M), and if you include McDonagh it pushes their top-6 over the $50M mark. The Senators' top-6 currently presents itself as Tkachuk, Stutzle, Norris, Batherson, Chabot, and Sanderson, which - even if you presume $8M/yr deals for all of the RFA - would eventually come in around the $45M mark. That said, they have a 2yr runway before reaching that mark (i.e. Stutzle/Sanderson still on ELC), at which point they'll also be freeing up over $10M in the Zaitsev/Murray deals. That creates quite a nice pocket of 3-4yrs where another high-$$$ player could be added to the roster, if they really fit in with the team's identity and development plan.

The latter is the problem... the team is still trying to discover its identity. We've seen Chabot plus the top line emerge, but the scaffolding is still up over the rest of the lineup. Stutzle was thrown into the 2nd line fire, and responded admirably - but its unclear that there's even 1 other NHL-quality top-6F in the prospect system. They invested 1st round picks in 3 straight drafts to build up quality/depth on the blue line, but those 3 players have just 29GP combined in the NHL. Now, a lot could change in the coming year with Sanderson, Pinto, and Thomson expected to make an impact, but I disagree that they can afford to not at least try to add 1 high-quality player to the roster. Where we agree is that Fiala is a bad fit... too many question marks, too high an asset-cost, and too much of a contract expectation.

This is yet another reason why I see Giroux as a near-perfect fit, if he's genuinely as interested as rumors have suggested. Even if you have to overpay him slightly, you give up no assets in return, retain your top-10 pick at the draft, and gain a player who provides a wealth of proven ability and veteran mentorship to a group in dire need of both. His deal could be reasonably kept to a 3/4 year term, which is well within the range of time they have to manage new deals for many of their young assets. This is where they would be wise to also learn from TB in terms of effectively using bridge deals to layer contracts over time, and maximize their competitive window.
- khawk

If you read what I said about Tampa it was five guys and a goalie, or plus a goalie if you prefer. I was including McDonagh in the five part of my comment even though he's just under 7, and with Vasilevsky's 9.5 million you get to around 50 million, give or take.

The point I was trying to make is that you can't have a lot of these 8 million types in your lineup if you want the depth you need to win. Also if the Sens don't see development internally with their goalie prospects in a couple of years they will need to pay handsomely for one if they expect to win anything.

Two years down the road I expect their D situation to be quite good because I see no reason to doubt that Sanderson, Thomson and JBD will be performing admirably. Along with Chabot and Zub you've got a real contender's D.

Their bottom six should be quite good. Stutzle will have matured. I see no reason why Giroux would be a bad idea. As a matter of fact I've posted comments in the past supporting that move; but I've cautioned about term. No more than 3 years because if things aren't working out internally they will need to be in a serious hunt for a goalie. I like Forsberg and think he was a great acquisition but I don't think he will give the team consistency over a 50 + game stretch. I hope he proves me wrong next year. Goalies are so hard to figure. What the hell happened to Markstrom?

I agree that they will need to add top six talent but I see no immediate urgency. They're not going on a Cup run next year. Take your time, be careful, pick your spot.

Friggin Dorion and Smith. I don't think they're going to let any of what I've just said happen. They are the fly in the ointment. Kids playing with matches near the curtains.

Spezza officially retires and join leafs front office.

Spezza officially retires and join leafs front office.
- Mithos

Spezza is the type of person, in which I could see him being a head coach in the NHL sooner than later. Along of the lines of the fast tracking Mary St. Louis in Montreal Anyone else think that could happen? If so, maybe the Sens could bring him in to replace DJ if the team gets off to a slow start! Hmmm.....

Spezza is the type of person, in which I could see him being a head coach in the NHL sooner than later. Along of the lines of the fast tracking Mary St. Louis in Montreal Anyone else think that could happen? If so, maybe the Sens could bring him in to replace DJ if the team gets off to a slow start! Hmmm.....

- Kevin Francis

While I agree with Spezza being a good coach - I think he should start as an assistant. St. Louis hasn't coached AT ALL, at any level. I think coaching is VERY different than being a 1000 point NHLer. Gretzky is a great example.

With that said I think he would GREAT as an assistant coach (Luke Richardson, Alex Burrows, Jeff Halpern, etc)

Spezza is the type of person, in which I could see him being a head coach in the NHL sooner than later. Along of the lines of the fast tracking Mary St. Louis in Montreal Anyone else think that could happen? If so, maybe the Sens could bring him in to replace DJ if the team gets off to a slow start! Hmmm.....
- Kevin Francis

Personally, I don't see it. If anything, Spezza was notorious for NOT listening to the direction of his coaches, and reverting back to OHL-style plays at the worst possible times. Might have something to do with why he won absolutely nothing in his career, other than a WC gold medal on a team that was as stacked as any in recent memory (i.e. Crosby, MacKinnon, Hall, Giroux, Duchene, Seguin, O'Reilly, Eberle, Couturier, Toffoli, Schenn). Now maybe he's used that to become a more effectively leader in his twilight years, but a coach has to be able to actually teach and direct other players, especially those that don't have the same kind of natural gifts that Spezza was blessed with. That's why star players seldom make good coaches... because they never had to study the game intensely, master the fine details, or bust their a$$ every single game just to make the NHL.

If they replace DJ Smith, I want to see a real coach with a proven track record brought in... not another blind roll of the dice.

Personally, I don't see it. If anything, Spezza was notorious for NOT listening to the direction of his coaches, and reverting back to OHL-style plays at the worst possible times. Might have something to do with why he won absolutely nothing in his career, other than a WC gold medal on a team that was as stacked as any in recent memory (i.e. Crosby, MacKinnon, Hall, Giroux, Duchene, Seguin, O'Reilly, Eberle, Couturier, Toffoli, Schenn). Now maybe he's used that to become a more effectively leader in his twilight years, but a coach has to be able to actually teach and direct other players, especially those that don't have the same kind of natural gifts that Spezza was blessed with. That's why star players seldom make good coaches... because they never had to study the game intensely, master the fine details, or bust their a$$ every single game just to make the NHL.

If they replace DJ Smith, I want to see a real coach with a proven track record brought in... not another blind roll of the dice.
- khawk

Id be very wary of making Spezza my head coach. I just keep picturing him in som high pressure situation on the bench, and doing his funny laugh.

Id be very wary of making Spezza my head coach. I just keep picturing him in som high pressure situation on the bench, and doing his funny laugh.
- david22

Spezza won't be head coach of this team

What do pepople think about taking Geekie with the number 7 pick?

I've seen mixed reports on him.

He's certainly big, which fits into the type of player Dorion seems to like, and piciking him could be a reach, but certainly not to the degree of Boucher. I have seen him ranked as high as 7th.

What do pepople think about taking Geekie with the number 7 pick?

I've seen mixed reports on him.

He's certainly big, which fits into the type of player Dorion seems to like, and piciking him could be a reach, but certainly not to the degree of Boucher. I have seen him ranked as high as 7th.
- david22

Geekie wouldn't be that much of a stretch at #7, but his draft stock has dropped since the early/mid-season rankings. In large part, this is because he hasn't really shown that much growth over the course of this season, plus Winnipeg had a pretty disappointing playoffs where he didn't exactly stand out. He could still project as a #2C, but if the Senators are planning to go "big-body" again in the 1st round, I'd say Cutter Gauthier is the more likely pick. He's not a natural C, but is a very hard-working all-round LW with a strong shot. He's also got a relatively impeccable pedigree, including NHL bloodlines and a development pathway that already includes Honeybaked, USNTDP, WU18, and a commitment to Boston College.

I'd really prefer to see them add more of a dynamic offensive talent that either of those two, especially at RW (e.g. Kemell, Lekkerimaki, Nazar), because that's something that I think is really lacking in the prospect system... but this is Dorion/Mann we're talking about.

Suspect Spezza retired because Dubas told him he wouldn't be bringing him back on ice next year. Front office gig a reward for taking league min for three years to help the Leafs try and win a cup. Now they can repay him the lost earnings without worrying about the cap, and he still gets his dream getting a chance to help his hometown team while also fast tracking his move to a bench gig. Clever on all sides.