Let's qualify it internally then.

Anaheim doles out their playing responsibilities more heavily to their starter - giving him the tougher assignments. Now I ignored Dostal who was an emergency replacement, starting 3 games against Chicago, Detroit and San Jose.

Of the other 79 games, Gibson appeared in 33 against Playoff teams, and 23 against non-playoff teams. Stolarz appeared in 13 against Playoff teams and 15 against non-playoff teams. Gibson only seemed to come out of 2 games - once against Chicago where he was pulled, and one where he appears to have been injured against the Stars. Stolarz was likewise injured and the Ducks had to use a replacement goalie in the 3rd.

In Gibson's 33 games against Playoff teams, he was .904, 3.37. In his 23 against non-playoff teams, he was .904, 2.98.

Stolarz, in 13 appearances against playoff teams, was .905, 3.33. Against non-playoff teams in 15 games, he was 9.27, 2.22.

John Gibson has an elite reputation for his work in 2016 - 2018, and he's young enough to believe that he hasn't lost it, but he sure as Hell isn't showing it.
- Monkeypunk

Thats too watered down. Who is facing the Floridas? The Colorados? The Tampas and Torontos of the league? Florida single handedly ruined goalies save percentages all year long. One beating from the Panthers and all of a sudden your sv percentage drops. Its why I hate how reliant we are on judging goalies by save percentages.

Stolarz
- gravyface

When you trade for a goalie who's best skill is being tall, don't be surprised when they don't have a ton of skill.

I've got no problem with Zezel's positivity. He's a fan.

It's Dubas and Shanahan wearing the koolaid goggles that is problematic.
- fifty__missions

They just view the team and what it needs differently than you do. And I see it differently than you. And sometimes we annoy each other for being so (frank)ing stupid to need seeing things exactly the way we do.

And I forgive you.

I'd rather have Campbell at 3.5/4 than Gibson at 6.4 today.
- Cush29

How long is that JC contract?

I see value in having a goalie locked up past AM, Nylander and Marner deals.

And JC is not signing to 4M on a 4-5 year deal.

Thats too watered down. Who is facing the Floridas? The Colorados? The Tampas and Torontos of the league? Florida single handedly ruined goalies save percentages all year long. One beating from the Panthers and all of a sudden your sv percentage drops. Its why I hate how reliant we are on judging goalies by save percentages.
- Santo_44

Gibson had a good game against Tampa and Stolarz didn't? Other than Edmonton - who curb stomped both goalies - there were no real outliers that would statistically skew that performance. Gibson was stomped by the Coyotes and the Hawks. Stolarz had bad outings against the Hawks and the Knights.

You don't like save percentage, you could look at GSAA which senstroll posted. Of all goalies in the league who played more than 1500 minutes (there are 48), Stolarz was 16th at 8.23, and Gibson was 34th at -5.64.

A change of scenery could be all he needs - but it's a big risk at $6.4m x 5 to take. You give up assets and bring someone into the biggest spotlight in the league. Good luck trading him if he falters.

Gibson had a good game against Tampa and Stolarz didn't? Other than Edmonton - who curb stomped both goalies - there were no real outliers that would statistically skew that performance. Gibson was stomped by the Coyotes and the Hawks. Stolarz had bad outings against the Hawks and the Knights.

You don't like save percentage, you could look at GSAA which senstroll posted. Of all goalies in the league who played more than 1500 minutes (there are 48), Stolarz was 16th at 8.23, and Gibson was 34th at -5.64.

A change of scenery could be all he needs - but it's a big risk at $6.4m x 5 to take. You give up assets and bring someone into the biggest spotlight in the league. Good luck trading him if he falters.
- Monkeypunk

There are always outliers. SV% are skewed and wildly inconsistent for every goalie.

So why did Grubeur go from a top goalie and one of the most consistent goalies in the league to one of the worst?

We are talking a Alex Ovechkin going from a 50 goal season to a 10 goal season...that just does not happen.

I don't agree with how much value you put on statistical performance over a few years. Its way too situational. Each goalie is different.

So NOW the regular season matters? In my simple world, Leafs played Tampa almost dead even over 7 with Point in the lineup for 6 and a bit games. Tampa won in 4 over Florida without Point. I’m tempted to draw conclusions.
- Canada Cup

Just saying they were the 3rd best in their conference.
Would your conclusion be that vasy got even better than he played in game 7 vs leafs, every game against florida he was better than he played round one. He pretty much took over the series

Saros, sure. he has had 4 nice seasons in a row. reasonable contract. they have Askarov who is still very young. doubt they are ready to hand over things to a 20yo. but who knows

Gibson, Id stay away from, 3 very average years in a row. too much risk imo to get little to no improvement.

lehner...no idea on his status
- senstroll

Agreed, no to gibson, has been ok for several years but the contract is too rich for the leafs cap.

How long is that JC contract?

I see value in having a goalie locked up past AM, Nylander and Marner deals.

And JC is not signing to 4M on a 4-5 year deal.
- Santo_44

Says you....but that doesn't mean he won't.

Regardless your willingness to take a risk on a goalie who is being paid 6.4M for 5 more years who has declined in the recent years with respect to performance isn't something I can get behind.

Never mind having the guy locked into a contract past the big 3 if he sucks and your paying him 6.4M to do so isn't helpful.

Freddy at 5x5 was good until it wasn't - so what happens if Gibson doesn't get better than he has been past 2 / 3 years? That's a long time to live with that mistake.

So if Tampa goes on to win the cup again or even make the finals does that make Toronto still a team of chokers who can't get it done OR does it make them a team that has faced 2 of the top 4 playoffs teams in the last 2 years in round one and faced incredible goaltending when it counted?

Just wondering, to me it's a bit of A and a lot of B. The up 3 game to 1 collapse was horrific, but the more I see Tampa win ( ) the more and more I think this Leafs team really is right there.

The Panthers choke job in 4 games was pretty telling to me, despite their 10 million dollar goalie actually showing up.
- Cush29

Imo Toronto didnt choke, they were pretty much the underdog. Had they played consistent, I think they could have beating Tampa and fortunately Vasi really only had one great game against the leafs.
But the leafs failed to get past the first round...again.
Panthers choked a bit, didnt even win a game. But we all knew Bob is overpaid and is consistently inconsistent, he's very much a wildcard.

Says you....but that doesn't mean he won't.

Regardless your willingness to take a risk on a goalie who is being paid 6.4M for 5 more years who has declined in the recent years with respect to performance isn't something I can get behind.

Never mind having the guy locked into a contract past the big 3 if he sucks and your paying him 6.4M to do so isn't helpful.

Freddy at 5x5 was good until it wasn't - so what happens if Gibson doesn't get better than he has been past 2 / 3 years? That's a long time to live with that mistake.
- Cush29

I dont believe Gibson is a good option either. Too many negatives.
If he had one year left...sure give it a shot.

There are always outliers. SV% are skewed and wildly inconsistent for every goalie.

So why did Grubeur go from a top goalie and one of the most consistent goalies in the league to one of the worst?

We are talking a Alex Ovechkin going from a 50 goal season to a 10 goal season...that just does not happen.

I don't agree with how much value you put on statistical performance over a few years. Its way too situational. Each goalie is different.
- Santo_44

Tell you what - you don't like my analysis, go do your own. There were no significant outliers that would cause a skew like you stated that wasn't somewhat shared between both goaltenders situationally - a massive blowout that would cause the data to be skewed. You don't believe me? There's nothing I can do about that.

Grubauer, for the first time in his career, isn't playing on a good team. His stats reflect that. I'd also say that I never thought that Grubauer was anywhere near as good as Francis clearly did. A number of analysts felt that he was a reason Colorado wasn't taking the next step.

As for Gibson, all I can say is that he had 3 really good years and if you look at his partner over those 3 really good years, his goaltending tandem partner was also good - a reflection of the team. The past few years, the gap between Gibson and his tandem partner has been more distinct and stark - an indicator that the goalie isn't performing as well under the same constraints. And Gibson has been on the wrong side of that comparison.

Says you....but that doesn't mean he won't.

Regardless your willingness to take a risk on a goalie who is being paid 6.4M for 5 more years who has declined in the recent years with respect to performance isn't something I can get behind.

Never mind having the guy locked into a contract past the big 3 if he sucks and your paying him 6.4M to do so isn't helpful.

Freddy at 5x5 was good until it wasn't - so what happens if Gibson doesn't get better than he has been past 2 / 3 years? That's a long time to live with that mistake.
- Cush29

I assume the idea is with the threat of Matthews leaving or taking more money to stay during this core run.

Not a proponent, but the days of Antti Niemi winning behind an elite team are over. We're in hot streaks, rookies and Vasilevsky.

How long is that JC contract?

I see value in having a goalie locked up past AM, Nylander and Marner deals.

And JC is not signing to 4M on a 4-5 year deal.
- Santo_44

There's value in having a "good" goalie locked up past the above mentioned deals.

There's negative value and risk in having an inconsistent goalie locked up past the above mentioned deals. Especially if he nose dives. See Mrazek, Peter.

Nothing about Gibson screams that he's going to come in to Toronto and play any better than Campbell has.

If Campbell wants north of 4.5 million on his next contract then it may be time to move on from him. I don't believe for a second that Gibson is the guy to move to. Not to mention, you have to be able to trade for him, which if he's as good as you think means you're giving up quality, and you have to be able to fit him into the cap.

Just saying they were the 3rd best in their conference.
Would your conclusion be that vasy got even better than he played in game 7 vs leafs, every game against florida he was better than he played round one. He pretty much took over the series
- Fakepartofme

Sure he was better but let’s not find an easy way out to explain away how the Leafs vastly outperformed the Panthers in a playoff series. Both teams lost but the two series were completely different - 23 goals vs 3 goals for in a nail biter of a series vs a sweep. Leafs need to and presumably will make improvements in the off-season but it’s too easy to lump this in as just another first round loss.

I was embarrassed last year. This year’s team performed well but fell short.

Sure he was better but let’s not find an easy way out to explain away how the Leafs vastly outperformed the Panthers in a playoff series. Both teams lost but the two series were completely different - 23 goals vs 3 goals for in a nail biter of a series vs a sweep. Leafs need to and presumably will make improvements in the off-season but it’s too easy to lump this in as just another first round loss.

I was embarrassed last year. This year’s team performed well but fell short.
- Canada Cup

That's a good point, I too was embarrassed last year, this year just disappointed. Some of that might have been the stark contrast between the Leafs being the overwhelming 'favourite' to win their series last year and this year where almost everyone agreed it was really a coin toss as to who would win the series - and it was.

since the Leafs have been eliminated, the Jays have been doing their very best to kill any excitement I had for the season.

(frank)in sports

That's a good point, I too was embarrassed last year, this year just disappointed. Some of that might have been the stark contrast between the Leafs being the overwhelming 'favourite' to win their series last year and this year where almost everyone agreed it was really a coin toss as to who would win the series - and it was.
- Cush29

Spare the "style points" argument/excuse for losing this series: the Leafs were favored in Vegas, had home ice advantage, a 3-2 series lead, and no Brayden Point in game 7. And found a way to lose.

That's a good point, I too was embarrassed last year, this year just disappointed. Some of that might have been the stark contrast between the Leafs being the overwhelming 'favourite' to win their series last year and this year where almost everyone agreed it was really a coin toss as to who would win the series - and it was.
- Cush29

The funny thing is that even though it was Montreal and Tampa, there were real similarities in how they played the Leafs. Clog up the middle, block shots like crazy and rely on your goalie. This year JT and Muzzin didn’t die and our big guys showed up. I think Matthews lead the Leafs (both teams?) in hits and lil’ Mitch was running into guys.

Contrast that to no goals from Barkov/Huberdeau.

The funny thing is that even though it was Montreal and Tampa, there were real similarities in how they played the Leafs. Clog up the middle, block shots like crazy and rely on your goalie. This year JT and Muzzin didn’t die and our big guys showed up. I think Matthews lead the Leafs (both teams?) in hits and lil’ Mitch was running into guys.

Contrast that to no goals from Barkov/Huberdeau.
- Canada Cup

It's the book on the Leafs. They do not excel when the game gets ugly and you gotta go to the paint, unfortunately.

Spare the "style points" argument/excuse for losing this series: the Leafs were favored in Vegas, had home ice advantage, a 3-2 series lead, and no Brayden Point in game 7. And found a way to lose.
- fifty__missions

Yeah and they had the lead in game 6 and a phantom call leading to a 5 on 3. They controlled the overtime but couldn't beat one of the best goalies in the game (to Cush's point, shots were 9-5, but 3 of them were on the final goal).

Game 7 had the tying goal taken away by a horrible interference call that is never called.

I don't know what to tell you, man. You get so angry about this stuff that you lose objectivity. This is a good team. This is a team that showed pushback and played hard. This is a team that played physical when they had to and played through it when they wanted to. But good teams are also good teams and they clog the D-Zone, collapse in front of their goalie, and clear the puck to hold wins. Tampa is a good team. They just took out the president's trophy winners in 4.

I'll agree that the Leafs still have work to do to be harder to play against and harder to come back against. Tampa has more experience. I don't think this team needs to change much other than learning to take the critical next steps.

Sure he was better but let’s not find an easy way out to explain away how the Leafs vastly outperformed the Panthers in a playoff series. Both teams lost but the two series were completely different - 23 goals vs 3 goals for in a nail biter of a series vs a sweep. Leafs need to and presumably will make improvements in the off-season but it’s too easy to lump this in as just another first round loss.

I was embarrassed last year. This year’s team performed well but fell short.
- Canada Cup

Yep. Changes during the off-season are inevitable as they are every year, but going back into next season with the core of this team is obvious. I'm looking forward to it.

Spare the "style points" argument/excuse for losing this series: the Leafs were favored in Vegas, had home ice advantage, a 3-2 series lead, and no Brayden Point in game 7. And found a way to lose.
- fifty__missions

You can spare the snarky comments just because you disagree with someone's point of view or you can take a unscheduled vacation from here.

I've been pretty tolerant with your constant female doging and moaning in here & as much as I am really sick and tired of it (as I'm sure others are as well) it's allowed because it's not against the 'rules' - as annoying as it may be.

The insulting and BS tone of this post and on several occasions the way you have responded since the end of the Tampa series vs Toronto to others who have a difference of opinion than you is against the rules - so drop it now.

If you can't be polite when you disagree then just stop replying to anyone. Post your opinion all you like but you don't get to throw common courtesy out the window when someone disagrees with you.

Yeah and they had the lead in game 6 and a phantom call leading to a 5 on 3. They controlled the overtime but couldn't beat one of the best goalies in the game (to Cush's point, shots were 9-5, but 3 of them were on the final goal).

Game 7 had the tying goal taken away by a horrible interference call that is never called.

I don't know what to tell you, man. You get so angry about this stuff that you lose objectivity. This is a good team. This is a team that showed pushback and played hard. This is a team that played physical when they had to and played through it when they wanted to. But good teams are also good teams and they clog the D-Zone, collapse in front of their goalie, and clear the puck to hold wins. Tampa is a good team. They just took out the president's trophy winners in 4.

I'll agree that the Leafs still have work to do to be harder to play against and harder to come back against. Tampa has more experience. I don't think this team needs to change much other than learning to take the critical next steps.
- Monkeypunk

Imagine if this was New York. Say, the New York Yankees. Do you really think the management and coaching staff, and all of the core pieces would return after 6 consecutive first round losses?

You can spare the snarky comments just because you disagree with someone's point of view or you can take a unscheduled vacation from here.

I've been pretty tolerant with your constant female doging and moaning in here & as much as I am really sick and tired of it (as I'm sure others are as well) it's allowed because it's not against the 'rules' - as annoying as it may be.

The insulting and BS tone of this post and on several occasions the way you have responded since the end of the Tampa series vs Toronto to others who have a difference of opinion than you is against the rules - so drop it now.

If you can't be polite when you disagree then just stop replying to anyone. Post your opinion all you like but you don't get to throw common courtesy out the window when someone disagrees with you.
- Cush29

You gotta have a pretty thin skin to take offense to that post, Cush. I get a new bumhole ripped daily for my opinions. Just sayin.