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Forums :: Blog World :: Kevin Francis: New arena news for the Sens/Potential Sens trade and UFA targets
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Mithos
Joined: 04.14.2021

Jun 25 @ 6:25 AM ET
Yes! In a second!
- Kevin Francis



bad idea to trade prime assets (in case of Miller) or signing players entering the final stage of their careers and will begin to decline will want big money and term, OTT is no were near contention, especially with smith as HC.
Mithos
Joined: 04.14.2021

Jun 25 @ 6:34 AM ET
Solid post as always! The long to do list is hard to accomplish when you have basically nobody to help him in hockey ops, just take a look at the Sens page for hockey ops, its a joke. Everything that happens with PD is baffling though. How you don't keep McGuire until July is beyond foolish when the ops are already thin....plus they should've made damn well sure Peter Mac didn't leave too.....but nobody can work with PD, unless your name is DJ.

Someone messaged me on Twitter today with this comment and summed it quite well.
The team needs ppl in their hockey ops that aren’t gonna get pissy when asked tough questions. And a GM who isn’t intimidated by other people’s hockey opinions

- Kevin Francis



whats funny is we see all these headlines on TSN an sportsnet about teams adding ppl to their front officer and all we see from OTT is people leaving and yet those above Dorion still have their heads up their ass....ownership needs to be settle ASAP so someone can take charge before dorion and smith destroys this team/franshise
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jun 25 @ 11:31 AM ET
whats funny is we see all these headlines on TSN an sportsnet about teams adding ppl to their front officer and all we see from OTT is people leaving and yet those above Dorion still have their heads up their ass....ownership needs to be settle ASAP so someone can take charge before dorion and smith destroys this team/franshise
- Mithos


My guess is Dorion is free to make choices and player deals that would make investment in the Sens more attractive. Normally that should mean you would stay bad and draft for the future. You always want to provide space and let the new guy (group) move to centre stage.

For rebuilding teams there is no bigger stage than the NHL draft. Owners often sit at the the table with the GM and scouts. For higher picks the owner often goes up on the stage. We have even seen some owners stand out front and make the draft call for the team.

Somebody has given Dorion the green light to deal the pick. I don't believe the Trustee Board would do this unless they were assured the decision was a positive decision for an incoming equity investor.

punchanello77
Joined: 07.17.2015

Jun 25 @ 12:05 PM ET
Does anybody have any faith that Pierre Dorion is not going to completely butcher this off-season?
punchanello77
Joined: 07.17.2015

Jun 25 @ 12:06 PM ET
My guess is Dorion is free to make choices and player deals that would make investment in the Sens more attractive. Normally that should mean you would stay bad and draft for the future. You always want to provide space and let the new guy (group) move to centre stage.

For rebuilding teams there is no bigger stage than the NHL draft. Owners often sit at the the table with the GM and scouts. For higher picks the owner often goes up on the stage. We have even seen some owners stand out front and make the draft call for the team.

Somebody has given Dorion the green light to deal the pick. I don't believe the Trustee Board would do this unless they were assured the decision was a positive decision for an incoming equity investor.

- spatso


You are quite an optimist. Moving the pick might be the right thing to do. Allowing Pierre Dorion to be the one to do it not. This will not end well.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jun 25 @ 3:07 PM ET
You are quite an optimist. Moving the pick might be the right thing to do. Allowing Pierre Dorion to be the one to do it not. This will not end well.
- punchanello77


Pretty sure Dorion knows he has to hit a home run if he is going to move the #7 and, perhaps, other assets to acquire a top 6 forward and/or top 4 Dman.

Far and away the safest option is to draft the best available player and stay away from making a huge trade error.

Most of the teams will be shopping for bargains because they are being crushed by the cap. Some teams need to offload contracts just to be cap compliant. We are not going to see huge bidding on some of the players that might be available.

Sounds like Rangers are cooking up a dispute with Panarin. Are they trying to move on? How many teams would be interested in taking on that contract?




Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Jun 25 @ 8:14 PM ET
Pretty sure Dorion knows he has to hit a home run if he is going to move the #7 and, perhaps, other assets to acquire a top 6 forward and/or top 4 Dman.

Far and away the safest option is to draft the best available player and stay away from making a huge trade error.

Most of the teams will be shopping for bargains because they are being crushed by the cap. Some teams need to offload contracts just to be cap compliant. We are not going to see huge bidding on some of the players that might be available.

Sounds like Rangers are cooking up a dispute with Panarin. Are they trying to move on? How many teams would be interested in taking on that contract?

- spatso

Don't be giving Dorion any ideas!
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jun 26 @ 5:00 AM ET
Don't be giving Dorion any ideas!
- Whatisavailable


It is a bad year to be living in a candy store.

Rangers are one of the most interesting cap profiles for the Sens to watch. Panarin has 4 years left at $11.6m. On the surface it appears like the Rangers are okay with Georgiev and Kappo Kakko being the only RFAs needing to be signed or moved this summer. But, next summer is ghastly with K'Andre Miller, Chytal and Lafrennier needing to be signed.

Rangers are close to the Leaf threshold of 4 players making $40m. or nearly 50% of the cap. Rangers are probably in better shape than the Leafs because they are younger and have better defensive players and very good goal tending locked in for the long term.

So, the kind of noise coming out of the Rangers front office about there being tension and bad vibes between Drury and Panarin is going to be repeated in multiple front offices across the NHL. So many teams will need to be sellers in off season. At first it will appear like business as usual as the best UFA's are quickly signed by the few teams that have cap space. But it will turn quickly and become apparent to everyone that there are not many teams with the cap space to add salary by signing a UFA or making a trade.

Markets are driven up by demand. Value and prices drop when demand is reduced. Rangers are not even close to being the team with the worst cap situation. They are more middle of the road on cap. But if the market lesson is to buy low and sell high, this is the year for a few teams (Ottawa, New Jersey, Detroit, Buffalo, Seattle, Anaheim) to look for some great bargain deals in UFA signing and trades. None of these teams will help the Rangers move Panarin.
LawyerSens4Life
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 03.23.2022

Jun 26 @ 8:31 AM ET
You are quite an optimist. Moving the pick might be the right thing to do. Allowing Pierre Dorion to be the one to do it not. This will not end well.
- punchanello77


With the roster, where it stands now, no way they challenge for a playoff spot next season. They have no choice but to use that pick to upgrade the roster now. They cant keep wasting the prime years of Brady and Chabot. I don't understand why anyone would think holding onto the pick is the best thing to do because unless they see next the two seasons as continuing the rebuild. End of story.
LawyerSens4Life
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 03.23.2022

Jun 26 @ 8:32 AM ET
Does anybody have any faith that Pierre Dorion is not going to completely butcher this off-season?
- punchanello77


I would say if anyone has faith in that man, then they are either lying through their teeth, delusional or a fair weather hockey fan that doesn't get the dynamics of a team in this sport.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jun 26 @ 9:23 AM ET
With the roster, where it stands now, no way they challenge for a playoff spot next season. They have no choice but to use that pick to upgrade the roster now. They cant keep wasting the prime years of Brady and Chabot. I don't understand why anyone would think holding onto the pick is the best thing to do because unless they see next the two seasons as continuing the rebuild. End of story.
- LawyerSens4Life


My bias has always been to keep a top 10 pick.

But, I think you are perfectly correct. You cannot discount the new reality of cap windows. The Sens are now on a clock as it relates to peek performance. Players are in their prime age 23-28.

Dubois is the right age, the right size and adds the kind of jam you want in the playoffs. His numbers are great, especially his 118 penalty minutes. Well within the Sens salary structure if they can move one or more of Murray, Zaitsev or White this year. Still lots of cap room to sign Norris, Formenton and Joseph this year. Steutzal and Zub are next year followed by Sanderson.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jun 26 @ 10:17 AM ET
I would say if anyone has faith in that man, then they are either lying through their teeth, delusional or a fair weather hockey fan that doesn't get the dynamics of a team in this sport.
- LawyerSens4Life


I never saw Dorion as the problem. But, I am open to the idea that he not be the solution. I have long believed that the primary problem was an ownership that personalized everything starting with failing to give Daniel Alfredsson full recognition for his contribution. Low point, for me, was hit when the Sens traded away Zibanejad. I have no doubt he was traded because ownership did not want to deal with his impending RFA status in the off season. I don't believe that Dorion ever thought that walking away from Duclair ever made any sense. But, again, it was just a dumb decision taken during the negotiation process where an owner wanted to be involved in the details of negation. I might be entirely wrong but that is what I believe.

I don't think that Dorion survives long term as we transition to new ownership. But, let's see what he does in next month or so.



Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Jun 26 @ 11:52 AM ET
With the roster, where it stands now, no way they challenge for a playoff spot next season. They have no choice but to use that pick to upgrade the roster now. They cant keep wasting the prime years of Brady and Chabot. I don't understand why anyone would think holding onto the pick is the best thing to do because unless they see next the two seasons as continuing the rebuild. End of story.
- LawyerSens4Life

If they are not ravaged by injury and covid protocols and with the addition of Sanderson and Thomson to the D and a more stable situation in goal with Forsberg this roster will challenge for a playoff spot.

What they have to avoid is getting worse through ill advised trades and failing to hold onto good players they already have. There are so many examples around the league of teams that made the big moves that were going to put them over the top and who are now in cap trouble and ready to be raided.

Tampa and Colorado are good models to follow when it comes to building a winner and neither one of those teams went chasing after big names once they had their core in place. Ottawa has Tkachuk, Norris, Batherson, Stutzle, Chabot and very likely Sanderson. They don't need more stars, especially not any that will create problems for them. They need a good supporting cast and that is where they should be putting their focus.

The problem is that would take good hockey people sifting through the rosters of all these cap stressed teams to find the deals and Ottawa doesn't have anybody in their bare bones front office to do that. Just Dorion. How can that end well?
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jun 26 @ 12:35 PM ET
If they are not ravaged by injury and covid protocols and with the addition of Sanderson and Thomson to the D and a more stable situation in goal with Forsberg this roster will challenge for a playoff spot.

What they have to avoid is getting worse through ill advised trades and failing to hold onto good players they already have. There are so many examples around the league of teams that made the big moves that were going to put them over the top and who are now in cap trouble and ready to be raided.

Tampa and Colorado are good models to follow when it comes to building a winner and neither one of those teams went chasing after big names once they had their core in place. Ottawa has Tkachuk, Norris, Batherson, Stutzle, Chabot and very likely Sanderson. They don't need more stars, especially not any that will create problems for them. They need a good supporting cast and that is where they should be putting their focus.

The problem is that would take good hockey people sifting through the rosters of all these cap stressed teams to find the deals and Ottawa doesn't have anybody in their bare bones front office to do that. Just Dorion. How can that end well?

- Whatisavailable


Sometimes it sounds like folks are a million miles apart when they are actually pretty close in terms of what they want.

Nobody wants the Sens to put themselves in a cap straight jacket. Nobody wants someone coming in to displace the voice and leadership of the young guys. Most everyone is sensitive to the Sens having a cap window of another 6 years.

There are some who are worried that the current GM and coach are going to have short term success making it impossible to dislodge them from their current jobs.

There are some that are worried the Sens will not show any competitive progress next year only increasing the frustration of fans and commentators.

The answer is probably somewhere in the middle.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jun 26 @ 1:26 PM ET
From Pro Hockey Rumours (this morning)

While Columbus holding the sixth and twelfth picks at the 2022 draft is certainly an enviable situation for many teams, few clubs have been able to replicate the sort of high-end draft capital the Ottawa Senators were able to amass in 2020. The team held two top-five picks, and with their second they selected American defenseman Jake Sanderson. Sanderson’s debut has been highly anticipated since he signed from the University of North Dakota, but injuries kept him from getting into NHL games this past season. Per Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun, by the time the season starts in the fall, those injury woes will be behind Sanderson and he’ll be ready to be a full contributor with the Senators, assuming he makes the team out of training camp as he’s widely expected to. Sanderson is a dynamic defenseman who has the potential to transform the makeup of the Senators’ blueline corps. His full recovery coming in time for the start of next season is not only a win for the Senators, it’s a win for hockey fans in general.
PuckPix
Joined: 01.12.2021

Jun 26 @ 9:27 PM ET
From Pro Hockey Rumours (this morning)

While Columbus holding the sixth and twelfth picks at the 2022 draft is certainly an enviable situation for many teams, few clubs have been able to replicate the sort of high-end draft capital the Ottawa Senators were able to amass in 2020. The team held two top-five picks, and with their second they selected American defenseman Jake Sanderson. Sanderson’s debut has been highly anticipated since he signed from the University of North Dakota, but injuries kept him from getting into NHL games this past season. Per Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun, by the time the season starts in the fall, those injury woes will be behind Sanderson and he’ll be ready to be a full contributor with the Senators, assuming he makes the team out of training camp as he’s widely expected to. Sanderson is a dynamic defenseman who has the potential to transform the makeup of the Senators’ blueline corps. His full recovery coming in time for the start of next season is not only a win for the Senators, it’s a win for hockey fans in general.

- spatso


There was an article about that on Friday. I get the Canadian feed for Post Media.
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Jun 27 @ 3:36 AM ET
Avs Top Scorers in points this season:

Mikko Rantanen - 9th Pick Overall
Nathan MacKinnon - 1st Pick Overall
Nazem Kadri - 7th Pick Overall
Cale Makar - 4th Pick Overall
Andre Burakovsky - 23rd Pick Overall
Gabriel Landeskog - 2nd Pick Overall
Devon Toews - 108 Pick Overall
Valeri Nichushkin - 10th Pick Overall

Sens will need Stutzle, Sanderson to be stars in order to have a real shot at the cup. If this team can't go out and sign big name players or make trades feely - then add the difficulty of not having any top 2 picks - they better develop in the top 5 in the NHL
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jun 27 @ 7:35 AM ET
Keep in mind that RFA compensation is a 1st, 2nd and 3rd for any contract offer in the range of $6.3 to $8.4. If the offer sheet is $4.2 to $6.3 the compensation is only a 1st and 3rd. The Sens will not go above $8.4. Brady functions as internal cap.

Sens RFAs this year are Norris, Formenton, Joseph and Braanstrom.

Here a few RFAs that could be trade targets (obviously some might be above $8.4m). In order to make an offer sheet the team must contol their own draft picks for the subject year and they must have the clear cap space at the time of the offer sheet.

Laine (Columbus), Tkachuk (Calgary), Boeser (Vancouver), Fiala (Minnesota), Dubois (Winnipeg), Kubalik (Chicago), Kakko (NYR) , Mangiapane (Calgary), Kempe (LAK), Crouse (Arizona).

There are many more really good RFAs on the list. My belief is the RFA compensation guide is important because it sets the base price for an elite young players who have already established a good NHL track record. If the Sens offer up a 1st (7), 2nd (Tampa) and 3rd (Boston) they would be close to the right price range for some of the top RFAs. I do not think the Sens are going to offer sheet anyone. But, I believe the RFA compensation guide is important because it tells us what an elite 24 year old is worth on the trade market.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jun 27 @ 8:49 AM ET
I had a busy weekend with the family, sorry I wasn't around much, but great discussion! I hope everyone on here has been on Twitter the last few days getting Alfie to the Hall out there! The announcement is on TSN at 3pm! Carried live on TSN1200 too for all of you at work. Fingers crossed that Alfie gets in!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jun 27 @ 8:50 AM ET
Avs Top Scorers in points this season:

Mikko Rantanen - 9th Pick Overall
Nathan MacKinnon - 1st Pick Overall
Nazem Kadri - 7th Pick Overall
Cale Makar - 4th Pick Overall
Andre Burakovsky - 23rd Pick Overall
Gabriel Landeskog - 2nd Pick Overall
Devon Toews - 108 Pick Overall
Valeri Nichushkin - 10th Pick Overall

Sens will need Stutzle, Sanderson to be stars in order to have a real shot at the cup. If this team can't go out and sign big name players or make trades feely - then add the difficulty of not having any top 2 picks - they better develop in the top 5 in the NHL

- AlfieisKing


Great post! Ottawa squandered getting additional top 3 of 5 picks by having the fools gold finish to the last 2 seasons when there was no pressure. Had Ottawa slotted into the top spots, who knows what else they would have in the pipeline
Bartacus
Ottawa Senators
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 01.08.2019

Jun 27 @ 10:11 AM ET
Avs Top Scorers in points this season:

Mikko Rantanen - 9th Pick Overall
Nathan MacKinnon - 1st Pick Overall
Nazem Kadri - 7th Pick Overall
Cale Makar - 4th Pick Overall
Andre Burakovsky - 23rd Pick Overall
Gabriel Landeskog - 2nd Pick Overall
Devon Toews - 108 Pick Overall
Valeri Nichushkin - 10th Pick Overall

Sens will need Stutzle, Sanderson to be stars in order to have a real shot at the cup. If this team can't go out and sign big name players or make trades feely - then add the difficulty of not having any top 2 picks - they better develop in the top 5 in the NHL

- AlfieisKing


Not to mention 6 of those 8 are top 10 picks, 7 are first rounders.

Colorado drafted four of those players, and drafted well (lesson: invest in amateur scouting). To get Kadri, Burakovsky, Toews, and Nichushkin they traded exactly ZERO first round picks away (lesson: invest in pro scouting). They used their picks and drafted and traded well. Point is you don't trade away first round picks. Especially top ten picks. Ever. You just don't. It is dumb.
PuckPix
Joined: 01.12.2021

Jun 27 @ 10:39 AM ET
I had a busy weekend with the family, sorry I wasn't around much, but great discussion! I hope everyone on here has been on Twitter the last few days getting Alfie to the Hall out there! The announcement is on TSN at 3pm! Carried live on TSN1200 too for all of you at work. Fingers crossed that Alfie gets in!
- Kevin Francis


I hope your fanbase is able to celebrate a great moment later today. Alfie should be in when you look at others that are in and don't have nearly the same credentials.
PuckPix
Joined: 01.12.2021

Jun 27 @ 10:40 AM ET
Not to mention 6 of those 8 are top 10 picks, 7 are first rounders.

Colorado drafted four of those players, and drafted well (lesson: invest in amateur scouting). To get Kadri, Burakovsky, Toews, and Nichushkin they traded exactly ZERO first round picks away (lesson: invest in pro scouting). They used their picks and drafted and traded well. Point is you don't trade away first round picks. Especially top ten picks. Ever. You just don't. It is dumb.

- Bartacus


Every team needs should have great amateur scouting, it's the team that don't have proper pro scouting that fail. Those teams don't want to pay pro scouting salaries because they carry a bigger price tag to that of amateur scouting. This is what separates the great teams and the yearly average teams or bottom feeders.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jun 27 @ 10:52 AM ET
Not to mention 6 of those 8 are top 10 picks, 7 are first rounders.

Colorado drafted four of those players, and drafted well (lesson: invest in amateur scouting). To get Kadri, Burakovsky, Toews, and Nichushkin they traded exactly ZERO first round picks away (lesson: invest in pro scouting). They used their picks and drafted and traded well. Point is you don't trade away first round picks. Especially top ten picks. Ever. You just don't. It is dumb.

- Bartacus


I have always agreed with this. During my days as a Leaf fan I was enraged to see JFJ and Burke deal away great picks in a desperation move in hopes of making playoffs.

But I have mellowed in my views. I am impressed by the opinion of some of the commenters on this thread who point out that the age related compete window for the Sens is in the range of 6 to 8 years. This change is not just for the Sens but for all teams. It started with McDavid and a whole bunch of young guys signing 7 and 8 year deals after their 3 year entry level contract.

Hated when Brian Burke and Leaf fans would repeat over and over again "the future is now." Still hate the phrase but it has more truth to it since they started giving the $10m long term deals to kids.
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Jun 27 @ 1:00 PM ET
Not to mention 6 of those 8 are top 10 picks, 7 are first rounders.

Colorado drafted four of those players, and drafted well (lesson: invest in amateur scouting). To get Kadri, Burakovsky, Toews, and Nichushkin they traded exactly ZERO first round picks away (lesson: invest in pro scouting). They used their picks and drafted and traded well. Point is you don't trade away first round picks. Especially top ten picks. Ever. You just don't. It is dumb.

- Bartacus

The Sens will get a very good player at #7. I like Cutter Gauthier but if he is gone that will mean one of those other 6 guys most people have picked before Gauthier will be available. Do not trade that pick unless you're getting a sure fire steal otherwise I agree 100% - it would be dumb to do so.
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