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Forums :: Blog World :: Hank Balling: Evaluating the Sabres’ Most Likely Pick at 9th Overall
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jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Jun 27 @ 2:02 PM ET
y
- TheSabresTaco


Bc Ion thinks it would only cost a 3rd or 4th to move up to pick 7

If that’s true,
then the Sabres should certainly do that
Heck, just about every team in every year should
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Jun 27 @ 2:03 PM ET
So you dont have anything to support your supposition?
- IonSabres


That it doesn’t happen supports my position

What do u have to support yours?
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Jun 27 @ 2:04 PM ET
You are aware of the work done in this area? I ask because you have previously stated that the draft isn't an area you have focused alot of attention on...not to be an ass.

To answer your question though...it depends on your board and your confidence level in your evaluations right? If you had Savoie, Nazar and Kasper roughly the same...yes, be crazy not to . If you had 1 rated "significantly" higher, than no.

These public evaluations are all over the board due to uneven development opportunity resulting from covid... I suspect there may be some uncertainty compared to other years with the conviction of their evaluations.

- IonSabres


I think you misunderstood me. I follow the draft, but I don't follow prospects year round the way others do. I'm in the same boat as Hank.

The draft is fun to me, not looking to fight with anyone.
Anderdog
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 03.17.2021

Jun 27 @ 2:08 PM ET
Would you take him at 9 if Savoie was there? (I doubt he will be).
Would you move up to six to get him?

- IonSabres



I think he's the guy
Adams still can watch portilo and hopefully have contact with him.
Nazar fits with the speed
ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I AM MY OWN DAMN SOURCE!, NY
Joined: 11.04.2010

Jun 27 @ 2:09 PM ET
Apparently Isles and Habs working on Josh Anderson for 13 overall. Per NRD.
buffalofan19
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Wonderful things can happen when you sow seeds of distrust in a garden full of (bum)holes
Joined: 07.01.2007

Jun 27 @ 2:11 PM ET
Apparently Isles and Habs working on Josh Anderson for 13 overall. Per NRD.
- ImThatGuy


Have we settled the debate as to whether that guy is reliable or not?

homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: ICE DIRECTOR SAYS OVER 13 THOUSAND MURDERERS CROSSED OUR BORDER ILLEGALLY OVER THE LAST 4 YEARS, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jun 27 @ 2:11 PM ET
So you dont have anything to support your supposition?
- IonSabres

2002 on draft day

florida with the first round overall pick traded it to c bus for pick 3 overall

the terms of the trade was the panthers could swap first round picks at the 2003 draft with the blue jackets if they wanted to

of course the panthers had the first overall pick in the 2003 draft and traded it to the pens on draft day instead of swapping with blue jackets

so in essence the panthers traded back in the 2002 draft, 2 spots from pick 1 to pick 3 for nothing

homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: ICE DIRECTOR SAYS OVER 13 THOUSAND MURDERERS CROSSED OUR BORDER ILLEGALLY OVER THE LAST 4 YEARS, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jun 27 @ 2:12 PM ET
That it doesn’t happen supports my position

What do u have to support yours?

- jdfitz77

Columbus Blue Jackets acquire Date Florida Panthers acquire
2002 1st round pick (#1-Rick Nash)
Panthers option to swap 2003 1st round picks (not exercised)
June 22, 2002
2002 1st round pick (#3-Jay Bouwmeester)
Panthers option to swap 2003 1st round picks (not exercised)



http://www.nhltradetracke...m/Columbus_Blue_Jackets/8
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Jun 27 @ 2:13 PM ET
Apparently Isles and Habs working on Josh Anderson for 13 overall. Per NRD.
- ImThatGuy


That would be a steal for a rebuilding MTL team
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jun 27 @ 2:13 PM ET
Apparently Isles and Habs working on Josh Anderson for 13 overall. Per NRD.
- ImThatGuy


guy is just full of hits
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jun 27 @ 2:14 PM ET
Have we settled the debate as to whether that guy is reliable or not?
- buffalofan19


he's a garbage people from staten island.
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Jun 27 @ 2:17 PM ET
Columbus Blue Jackets acquire Date Florida Panthers acquire
2002 1st round pick (#1-Rick Nash)
Panthers option to swap 2003 1st round picks (not exercised)
June 22, 2002
2002 1st round pick (#3-Jay Bouwmeester)
Panthers option to swap 2003 1st round picks (not exercised)



http://www.nhltradetracke...m/Columbus_Blue_Jackets/8

- homiedclown



And that trade was so bad that nothing like it has happened in the last 20years

Sabres had to give up a 3rd to move up 1 spot in the teens (13 to 12, i believe) to draft Tyler Myers
And that was 2008ish
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: ICE DIRECTOR SAYS OVER 13 THOUSAND MURDERERS CROSSED OUR BORDER ILLEGALLY OVER THE LAST 4 YEARS, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jun 27 @ 2:18 PM ET
And that trade was so bad that nothing like it has happened in the last 20years

Sabres had to give up a 3rd to move up 1 spot in the teens (13 to 12, i believe) to draft Tyler Myers
And that was 2008ish

- jdfitz77

you asked for an example


they moved back 2 spots for nothing


take the L
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jun 27 @ 2:18 PM ET
personally i believe this draft would not cost too much to move up a pick or two in the first round. last year to move from 22 to 20 cost a late third. From 9 to 7, I bet the Vegas 23 2nd is enough.
kaleta36
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Angola
Joined: 04.26.2011

Jun 27 @ 2:21 PM ET
Did we talk about Aube-Kubel denting the cup last night? Hilarious!
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: ICE DIRECTOR SAYS OVER 13 THOUSAND MURDERERS CROSSED OUR BORDER ILLEGALLY OVER THE LAST 4 YEARS, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jun 27 @ 2:21 PM ET
personally i believe this draft would not cost too much to move up a pick or two in the first round. last year to move from 22 to 20 cost a late third. From 9 to 7, I bet the Vegas 23 2nd is enough.
- TheSabresTaco

my guess is it's all dependent on each teams draft board and how much they like 1 guy over the other 2 possibilities

botts wanted to move up to pick 5 in 18 draft with nucks from pick 8 and nucks wanted nothing to do with it
joshs
Buffalo Sabres
Location: cheektowaga, NY
Joined: 07.07.2012

Jun 27 @ 2:21 PM ET
personally i believe this draft would not cost too much to move up a pick or two in the first round. last year to move from 22 to 20 cost a late third. From 9 to 7, I bet the Vegas 23 2nd is enough.
- TheSabresTaco


I don’t think Ottawa is interested in moving back
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Jun 27 @ 2:21 PM ET
you asked for an example

they moved back 2 spots for nothing

take the L

- homiedclown


No, i asked for exampleS
That’s examples, with an “s”
As in multiple times it’s happened that would create a trend

But once again, you can’t read or interpret correctly
Thanks for playing though
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jun 27 @ 2:23 PM ET
I don’t think Ottawa is interested in moving back
- joshs


eh. you never know. if they can get a free pick from just having a field of guys available to them that they like, who knows.
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: ICE DIRECTOR SAYS OVER 13 THOUSAND MURDERERS CROSSED OUR BORDER ILLEGALLY OVER THE LAST 4 YEARS, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jun 27 @ 2:24 PM ET
No, i asked for exampleS
That’s examples, with an “s”
As in multiple times it’s happened that would create a trend

But once again, you can’t read or interpret correctly
Thanks for playing though

- jdfitz77

you are always right in your mind


take the L, you earned it
joshs
Buffalo Sabres
Location: cheektowaga, NY
Joined: 07.07.2012

Jun 27 @ 2:30 PM ET
eh. you never know. if they can get a free pick from just having a field of guys available to them that they like, who knows.
- TheSabresTaco


Yeah true. Im fairly interested in the possibility of getting 1 of Seattle, Philly or Columbus to trade their pick for pick 16 and 28.
ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I AM MY OWN DAMN SOURCE!, NY
Joined: 11.04.2010

Jun 27 @ 2:30 PM ET
Have we settled the debate as to whether that guy is reliable or not?
- buffalofan19

I have no reason not to believe him.
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jun 27 @ 2:32 PM ET
Fun, lots of fun.

Then the game would start. The fun would end.

Stripes would call you for a bunch of retaliation penalties 😉

- Boss34


Lol.
Refs always get the retaliation, not the instigator.
Hence why you would be on a stretcher at the 19:58 mark.

Good day.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jun 27 @ 2:32 PM ET
Per the Athletic's value chart



The difference between 9 and 7 is 0.8. An early 4th round pick is an acceptable add to make the trade even, valued at 0.8.

Michael Schucker, a statistical professor at St Lawrence U, came up with a different value system.



The difference between 9 and 7 is 69 points (nice). This would make a 6th round pick as an acceptable return. Clearly this is off the table because the Clown's nuggets would implode.

So, as Fitz incorrectly surmised, a 3rd or 4th round return is not 3 laughy faces. It is zero, or at most one, if the trade partner is firm in his selection in his position.

TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jun 27 @ 2:35 PM ET
Yeah true. Im fairly interested in the possibility of getting 1 of Seattle, Philly or Columbus to trade their pick for pick 16 and 28.
- joshs


I could care less about trading up, overall. It's always a little exciting when it happens, but the logic side to me says stay put at 9. Now, 28, yeah maybe shuffle up 2 or 3 to ensure a JJP. Just don't be wrong.
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