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Forums :: Blog World :: Hank Balling: Evaluating the Sabres’ Most Likely Pick at 9th Overall
Author Message
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Jun 27 @ 2:35 PM ET
you are always right in your mind


take the L, you earned it

- homiedclown


Digging in and repeating yourself doesn’t make u correct, just ignorant

I asked for examples, plural
U said i asked for an example, singular

You were wrong, your “L” there…. Again
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jun 27 @ 2:36 PM ET
Lol.
Refs always get the retaliation, not the instigator.
Hence why you would be on a stretcher at the 19:58 mark.

Good day.

- IonSabres



Boss34
Buffalo Sabres
Location: BUFFALO , NY
Joined: 12.03.2015

Jun 27 @ 2:36 PM ET
I think you misunderstood me. I follow the draft, but I don't follow prospects year round the way others do. I'm in the same boat as Hank.

The draft is fun to me, not looking to fight with anyone.

- Lunaion


Strange that you would feel a discussion with ion would turn into a fight?

How could that possibly be?

IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jun 27 @ 2:38 PM ET
I think you misunderstood me. I follow the draft, but I don't follow prospects year round the way others do. I'm in the same boat as Hank.

The draft is fun to me, not looking to fight with anyone.

- Lunaion


We are good. It was a debate, not a fight IMO.
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Jun 27 @ 2:38 PM ET
Per the Athletic's value chart



The difference between 9 and 7 is 0.8. An early 4th round pick is an acceptable add to make the trade even, valued at 0.8.

Michael Schucker, a statistical professor at St Lawrence U, came up with a different value system.



The difference between 9 and 7 is 69 points (nice). This would make a 6th round pick as an acceptable return. Clearly this is off the table because the Clown's nuggets would implode.

So, as Fitz incorrectly surmised, a 3rd or 4th round return is not 3 laughy faces. It is zero, or at most one, if the trade partner is firm in his selection in his position.

- TheSabresTaco


Arbitrary value charts don’t show what teams would necessarily have to give up to complete the trade though

I’ll bet Ion that we don’t move up to 7 for only a 3rd or 4th though

If we do, I’ll leave & never come back
If we don’t, he leaves & never comes back

I’ll make the same bet with you if you’d like
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: ICE DIRECTOR SAYS OVER 13 THOUSAND MURDERERS CROSSED OUR BORDER ILLEGALLY OVER THE LAST 4 YEARS, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jun 27 @ 2:38 PM ET
Per the Athletic's value chart



The difference between 9 and 7 is 0.8. An early 4th round pick is an acceptable add to make the trade even, valued at 0.8.

Michael Schucker, a statistical professor at St Lawrence U, came up with a different value system.



The difference between 9 and 7 is 69 points (nice). This would make a 6th round pick as an acceptable return. Clearly this is off the table because the Clown's nuggets would implode.

So, as Fitz incorrectly surmised, a 3rd or 4th round return is not 3 laughy faces. It is zero, or at most one, if the trade partner is firm in his selection in his position.

- TheSabresTaco

oh my
SabresFaninIndiana
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Bananaville, IN
Joined: 12.16.2009

Jun 27 @ 2:39 PM ET
my guess is it's all dependent on each teams draft board and how much they like 1 guy over the other 2 possibilities

botts wanted to move up to pick 5 in 18 draft with nucks from pick 8 and nucks wanted nothing to do with it

- homiedclown

who was he after when trying to move up?
Boss34
Buffalo Sabres
Location: BUFFALO , NY
Joined: 12.03.2015

Jun 27 @ 2:39 PM ET
Lol.
Refs always get the retaliation, not the instigator.
Hence why you would be on a stretcher at the 19:58 mark.

Good day.

- IonSabres


Well this appears to cross the line of joking around.

I doubt you would still be playing still at the 19:58 mark, if you cant sit in a seat and watch a complete Lightning game.

Ion comparison- 🌮's guy ty myers
Boss - tie domi
joshs
Buffalo Sabres
Location: cheektowaga, NY
Joined: 07.07.2012

Jun 27 @ 2:40 PM ET
I could care less about trading up, overall. It's always a little exciting when it happens, but the logic side to me says stay put at 9. Now, 28, yeah maybe shuffle up 2 or 3 to ensure a JJP. Just don't be wrong.
- TheSabresTaco


Absolutely. I can totally understand that.
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Jun 27 @ 2:40 PM ET
oh my
- homiedclown


Very damning evidence since all trades follow the trade value charts
Oh, wait….
SabresFaninIndiana
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Bananaville, IN
Joined: 12.16.2009

Jun 27 @ 2:43 PM ET
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jun 27 @ 2:43 PM ET
personally i believe this draft would not cost too much to move up a pick or two in the first round. last year to move from 22 to 20 cost a late third. From 9 to 7, I bet the Vegas 23 2nd is enough.
- TheSabresTaco


'23 2nd sounds like a '22 3rd in value.
Old adage is you increase 1 round for each 1 year the pick is moved back
DirtyDan
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Why aren't more people interrigent? Rike Me? , ON
Joined: 02.03.2021

Jun 27 @ 2:44 PM ET
Well this appears to cross the line of joking around.

I doubt you would still be playing still at the 19:58 mark, if you cant sit in a seat and watch a complete Lightning game.

Ion comparison- 🌮's guy ty myers
Boss - tie domi

- Boss34



homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: ICE DIRECTOR SAYS OVER 13 THOUSAND MURDERERS CROSSED OUR BORDER ILLEGALLY OVER THE LAST 4 YEARS, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jun 27 @ 2:44 PM ET
Very damning evidence since all trades follow the trade value charts
Oh, wait….

- jdfitz77

2016 the sens and devils swapped picks 11 and 12

cost was a late third

TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jun 27 @ 2:46 PM ET
Well this appears to cross the line of joking around.

I doubt you would still be playing still at the 19:58 mark, if you cant sit in a seat and watch a complete Lightning game.

Ion comparison- 🌮's guy ty myers
Boss - tie domi

- Boss34





TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jun 27 @ 2:47 PM ET
Very damning evidence since all trades follow the trade value charts
Oh, wait….

- jdfitz77


do you just like to dismiss evidence based on biased opinions
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: ICE DIRECTOR SAYS OVER 13 THOUSAND MURDERERS CROSSED OUR BORDER ILLEGALLY OVER THE LAST 4 YEARS, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jun 27 @ 2:48 PM ET

- SabresFaninIndiana

SabresFaninIndiana
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Bananaville, IN
Joined: 12.16.2009

Jun 27 @ 2:48 PM ET
'23 2nd sounds like a '22 3rd in value.
Old adage is you increase 1 round for each 1 year the pick is moved back

- IonSabres

what about future considerations... i think we need to cash in on some of those and move up in the draft.

Buffalo 9th overall + 3rd round pick and "will butcher future considerations cash in" to NJD for 2nd overall.

come on darcy make it happen
joshs
Buffalo Sabres
Location: cheektowaga, NY
Joined: 07.07.2012

Jun 27 @ 2:49 PM ET
I apologize for jumping into your guys conversation but neither of you are wrong.

Homie did in-fact give you an example of a team trading back for essentially nothing but the initial spirit of the trade was not to move back from 1st to 3rd overall for a 3rd or 4th.
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: ICE DIRECTOR SAYS OVER 13 THOUSAND MURDERERS CROSSED OUR BORDER ILLEGALLY OVER THE LAST 4 YEARS, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jun 27 @ 2:49 PM ET
I apologize for jumping into your guys conversation but neither of you are wrong.

Homie did in-fact give you an example of a team trading back for essentially nothing but the initial spirit of the trade was not to move back from 1st to 3rd overall for a 3rd or 4th.

- joshs

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TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jun 27 @ 2:50 PM ET
'23 2nd sounds like a '22 3rd in value.
Old adage is you increase 1 round for each 1 year the pick is moved back

- IonSabres


Decent point you have. The value is probably the Sabres 3 gets it done this year. In this case, Ottawa needs to be more than willing. If they're stubborn about it, it's ludicrous to go any higher.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jun 27 @ 2:50 PM ET
what about future considerations... i think we need to cash in on some of those and move up in the draft.

Buffalo 9th overall + 3rd round pick and "will butcher future considerations cash in" to NJD for 2nd overall.

come on darcy make it happen

- SabresFaninIndiana


based
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

Jun 27 @ 2:51 PM ET
Bc Ion thinks it would only cost a 3rd or 4th to move up to pick 7

If that’s true,
then the Sabres should certainly do that
Heck, just about every team in every year should

- jdfitz77

He didn't say that, he said the various trade charts have that
joshs
Buffalo Sabres
Location: cheektowaga, NY
Joined: 07.07.2012

Jun 27 @ 2:52 PM ET
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- homiedclown




We all have our bad days.
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Jun 27 @ 2:56 PM ET
2016 the sens and devils swapped picks 11 and 12

cost was a late third

- homiedclown


And one would assume that moving up TWO spots in the Top10 would cost MORE than moving up ONE spot in the teens

Thanks for helping prove my point

I’ve got stuff to do on this beautiful day,
so I’ll leave it there

Appreciate you having my back 🤣🤣
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