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Forums :: Blog World :: Kevin Francis: Will the Sens extend an RFA offer sheet? Potential trade targets and more!
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Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Jul 5 @ 3:59 PM ET
This is a typical Sens move. Yes, it financially makes sense, but the contracts of Murray and Zaitsev hurt way more and should of been dealt with first. I have no confidence that Dorion will make a competent move to get rid of either of these players and we will see a team with three goalies on the roster and Zaitsev playing top four minutes.
- CooCooKaChoo

White was only the priority because of the time-limited buyout opportunity to keep it at a 1/3 the remaining salary instead of 2/3. They'll pay out $875K over the next 6 years, but it saves them $10M in real $$$, as well as $4M/yr in AAV for the next 3 years. Hopefully, this puts enough $$$ back into play to resolve the Zaitsev/Murray fiasco, and maybe even bring in a player or two who contribute positively to the team... otherwise this will be just yet another cost-cutting exercise with no positive impact for the on-ice product.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 5 @ 4:04 PM ET
White was only the priority because of the time-limited buyout opportunity to keep it at a 1/3 the remaining salary instead of 2/3. They'll pay out $875K over the next 6 years, but it saves them $10M in real $$$, as well as $4M/yr in AAV for the next 3 years. Hopefully, this puts enough $$$ back into play to resolve the Zaitsev/Murray fiasco, and maybe even bring in a player or two who contribute positively to the team... otherwise this will be just yet another cost-cutting exercise with no positive impact for the on-ice product.
- khawk


Radical surgery in live time.

Everyday Sens
@EverydaySens
·
2h
With the Colin White buyout, Thomas Chabot is now the only player on Ottawa's roster who played a game (he played 1) for the Senators in the 2016-17 season.


Octavarium
New York Islanders
Joined: 01.03.2007

Jul 5 @ 4:07 PM ET
Great posts and great discussion by all.
Way too much to comment on.
I will say I would have loved to be part of a “beer and nachos” draft party. Sadly I’m at the cottage.

If i was the Sens I’d be looking at who those bottom five teams might be next year. There will always be a surprise fail. And get their unprotected first round pick. Because it’s Bedard and he looks like the real deal. This draft seems like a bust.
SensFan25
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 08.24.2006

Jul 5 @ 4:08 PM ET
If an actual default occurs the franchise itself could be vulnerable. At that point in time the creditors alone hold all the power.
- spatso

I'm sure that Bettman and the NHL Board of Governors hold sufficient power to determine the final outcome if necessary.
PavohnDatsvares
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.03.2016

Jul 5 @ 4:33 PM ET
I'm not sure if anyone's posted it yet, but White's buyout (according to capfriendly) is broken down as follows:

2022-23 $875,000
2023-24 $875,000
2024-25 $625,000*
2025-26 $875,000
2026-27 $875,000
2027-28 $875,000

*The 2024-25 season has a "credit" of some sort. Maybe someone more knowledgeable than me has more info on what that is all about.

To the best of my knowledge, these amounts are what he's actually PAID, AND how much it counts against our salary cap.

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/colin-white

Edit: Looks like the payout for 2024-25 is still the whole $875,000. But the CAP HIT is only $625,000.
PavohnDatsvares
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.03.2016

Jul 5 @ 4:38 PM ET
I really hope the White buyout is a sign of an upcoming trade or free agent acquisition. Giroux? FORSBERG? Trade for Pasta, DeBrincat?

(A guy can dream, can't he?)
GrimmdaGoalie
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 01.07.2016

Jul 5 @ 4:41 PM ET
I really hope the White buyout is a sign of an upcoming trade or free agent acquisition. Giroux? FORSBERG? Trade for Pasta, DeBrincat?

(A guy can dream, can't he?)

- PavohnDatsvares


I would be just happy with addition through subtraction. Specifically Zaitsev and DJ
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Jul 5 @ 4:41 PM ET
Can't hit a homerun on all 1st round pick look at NYR they have a bust for a 2nd OA and a 1st OA that is a 3rd liner
- Mithos

Kaapo was drafted 3 years ago. Lafreniere 2 years ago.

While I doubt either will be the BEST player in their draft, it's way way too early to say that one is a bust and one is a 3rd liner
PavohnDatsvares
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.03.2016

Jul 5 @ 4:42 PM ET
I would be just happy with addition through subtraction. Specifically Zaitsev and DJ
- GrimmdaGoalie


I can get behind that.
Gord_Wilson_2.0
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.11.2011

Jul 5 @ 5:26 PM ET
On average, in any year, a team drafts 1.6 players that will actually play regular shifts in the NHL. If you look at the Senators since 2017 and beginning the tear down and rebuild their drafting and dealing for prospect has been exceptionally good, including

Braanstrom, Norris, Formenton, Batherson, Tkachuk, JBD, Thomson, Pinto, Sogaard, Kastelic, Stutzle, Sanderson, Grieg, Jarventie, Kleven and Sokolov.

- spatso

I can't recall the article, but I remember reading that the Sens have one of the better percentages of prospects seeing NHL time. I think this is more attributed to rostering players because they have no other way to bring in actual talent than actual drafting skill. I'd love to see half of that prospect list in other systems and see their rankings.

Prospects like Sokolov, Klevan, Jarventie, Grieg, Sogaard, Thomson, JBD, and Kastelic are quality prospects every team in the NHL has. Sure there is a chance they become contributing forces, but even more of a chance that they won't.

This team has pieces. They need to start insulating them with quality talent soon in other ways besides drafting (which is still important), otherwise the window will pass.
Gord_Wilson_2.0
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.11.2011

Jul 5 @ 5:31 PM ET
The thing that Lazar and White really have in common is that they're both examples of the team going out of their way to waste 1st round picks on middle-6 talent, which is a complete waste of time. Consider the quality of player that trading a 1st round piece typically yields, vs. using that same resource to draft a player who will take 4-5 years to "maybe" become a 3rd-pairing forward. Draft with a different mindset and Lazar becomes Burakovsky/Mantha, while White becomes Konecny/Boeser. That's not Monday QB stuff either, because all 4 of those players were explicitly discussed options in various mock-drafts and pundit assessments when those selections were made by the Senators.
- khawk

This is it exactly. These so called "safe" picks actually end up hurting the team more than taking a shot at guy with exceptional raw skill. It's strange too because arguably one of the best 1st round picks in franchise history was Erik Karlsson, who wasn't exactly a "safe" pick at the time.

You can fill out your roster with safe, defensive minded players. They are all that is available every trade deadline. Much harder to add quality raw talent to give your team an edge.

Will be interesting to see the strategy at this years draft. Hopefully no more guys that are projected to be a poor man's Patrice Bergerons.
Gord_Wilson_2.0
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.11.2011

Jul 5 @ 5:35 PM ET
So true, just like at Sokolov, he has gone from top 6 forward prospect to lets hope he can be a regular NHLer after his last season. He will be in Belleville again this year, if he doesn't manage to crack the lineup at some point next season, one has to wonder if he has a future here.
- Kevin Francis

His speed was really lacking in the NHL games this year however, I did like some of the presence he has in the offensive zone along the boards with his size. He will be an interesting prospect to watch. Considering he just relearned how to skate again fairly recently, he might just have more improvement in that aspect of his game to come.
Mithos
Joined: 04.14.2021

Jul 5 @ 5:40 PM ET
Kaapo was drafted 3 years ago. Lafreniere 2 years ago.

While I doubt either will be the BEST player in their draft, it's way way too early to say that one is a bust and one is a 3rd liner

- AlfieisKing


for a 2nd OA hes a bust pure and simple, 3 years in the NHL only scored more than 10 goals once, 20 points once playing on the top 2 lines.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 5 @ 6:22 PM ET
for a 2nd OA hes a bust pure and simple, 3 years in the NHL only scored more than 10 goals once, 20 points once playing on the top 2 lines.
- Mithos


Cant argue with those numbers, but still very young!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 5 @ 6:23 PM ET
His speed was really lacking in the NHL games this year however, I did like some of the presence he has in the offensive zone along the boards with his size. He will be an interesting prospect to watch. Considering he just relearned how to skate again fairly recently, he might just have more improvement in that aspect of his game to come.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0


Oh absolutely! This coming season will be very telling about where there direction of his ceiling.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 5 @ 6:24 PM ET
This is it exactly. These so called "safe" picks actually end up hurting the team more than taking a shot at guy with exceptional raw skill. It's strange too because arguably one of the best 1st round picks in franchise history was Erik Karlsson, who wasn't exactly a "safe" pick at the time.

You can fill out your roster with safe, defensive minded players. They are all that is available every trade deadline. Much harder to add quality raw talent to give your team an edge.

Will be interesting to see the strategy at this years draft. Hopefully no more guys that are projected to be a poor man's Patrice Bergerons.

- Gord_Wilson_2.0


You both nailed it, khawk and you my friend....safe picks should be selected in the 2nd or 3rd round....not in the 1st round. Til this day I am stunned that they had Konecny playing at the CTC meters away from PD's office for 2 years...while the Civic center was under construction and they almost purposely didn't select TK. Unreal!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 5 @ 6:26 PM ET
I can't recall the article, but I remember reading that the Sens have one of the better percentages of prospects seeing NHL time. I think this is more attributed to rostering players because they have no other way to bring in actual talent than actual drafting skill. I'd love to see half of that prospect list in other systems and see their rankings.

Prospects like Sokolov, Klevan, Jarventie, Grieg, Sogaard, Thomson, JBD, and Kastelic are quality prospects every team in the NHL has. Sure there is a chance they become contributing forces, but even more of a chance that they won't.

This team has pieces. They need to start insulating them with quality talent soon in other ways besides drafting (which is still important), otherwise the window will pass.

- Gord_Wilson_2.0


Insulating them with talent is key....not berating them and benching them for a bad shift, like DJ did far too much. Or sending down Thomson or JBD because Josh Brown was coming off the injury list....when both were playing light years better Brown. The coach has to play these guys this year.....especially if they have they have better camp/pre-season like Brannstrom and Thomson did last year but were both sent down!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 5 @ 6:28 PM ET
I'm sure that Bettman and the NHL Board of Governors hold sufficient power to determine the final outcome if necessary.
- SensFan25


Exactly, I have had a source in the league office for years, too many fans try to predict or be a telestrator of what is happening with ownership. This team ain't being sold this season, people thinking something will happen Christmas, pipe dream....it ain't happening!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 5 @ 6:28 PM ET
I really hope the White buyout is a sign of an upcoming trade or free agent acquisition. Giroux? FORSBERG? Trade for Pasta, DeBrincat?

(A guy can dream, can't he?)

- PavohnDatsvares


Forsberg or Giroux would be great!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 5 @ 6:29 PM ET
I can get behind that.
- PavohnDatsvares


Make that 90% of Sens fans....there are still a few who think DJ has been good for this team lol!
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 5 @ 7:27 PM ET
Exactly, I have had a source in the league office for years, too many fans try to predict or be a telestrator of what is happening with ownership. This team ain't being sold this season, people thinking something will happen Christmas, pipe dream....it ain't happening!
- Kevin Francis


I think that is right. I have always doubted that the team could be sold in a conventioanal sale to a stand alone buyer. For several years I have predicted that the team would be restructured and recapitalized under some supervisory process like the Companies Creditors Arrangment Act. The existing trustee board has no expertise or interest in the hockey decisions that are being made. Best hope is we are able to identify the investors who are prepared to drive the process,

I think it is all about LeBreton and transition to a very different business model.

It is why I get so impatient when folks start talking about the need to replace Dorion. Nobody that matters cares. Dorion probably has a free hand for at least another year.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 5 @ 7:35 PM ET
I think that is right. I have always doubted that the team could be sold in a conventioanal sale to a stand alone buyer. For several years I have predicted that the team would be restructured and recapitalized under some supervisory process like the Companies Creditors Arrangment Act. The existing trustee board has no expertise or interest in the hockey decisions that are being made. Best hope is we are able to identify the investors who are prepared to drive the process,

I think it is all about LeBreton and transition to a very different business model.

It is why I get so impatient when folks start talking about the need to replace Dorion. Nobody that matters cares. Dorion probably has a free hand for at least another year.

- spatso


That board is vile....exact words I was told by a few not just close to the team but in the league office....that they don't get the hockey side at all....later in July I will be doing a blog....100% about a lot of that stuff....but for now....I am sticking to the on ice product. Getting the NCC lease was no different than 2018....nothing has changed ownership wise....so much I could say....but I will down the road. You are correct, PD ain't going anywhere this year....unless he completely and I mean completely screws things up again....time will tell.....
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 5 @ 7:36 PM ET
Priceless!

Steve Simmons received a reply

Steve Simmons
@simmonssteve
·
7h
The Maple Leafs lead the NHL in only one category: Front office staff. They now have a president, a GM, four assistant GMs, and a governor for their AHL team. I wonder how Joe Sakic got by in Colorado with only two assistant GMs, one of them running his AHL team.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 5 @ 7:57 PM ET
That board is vile....exact words I was told by a few not just close to the team but in the league office....that they don't get the hockey side at all....later in July I will be doing a blog....100% about a lot of that stuff....but for now....I am sticking to the on ice product. Getting the NCC lease was no different than 2018....nothing has changed ownership wise....so much I could say....but I will down the road. You are correct, PD ain't going anywhere this year....unless he completely and I mean completely screws things up again....time will tell.....
- Kevin Francis


The guys who loaned Melnyk the money (or provided the guarantees) probably took security in the form of a floating charge against all the assets, revenues and interests of the team including the building. Melnyk's creditors essentially control the team. For them it will be all about LeBreton. So, when at the LeBreton press conference team officials were asked about future team issues they deferred and said that it will be "decided by our equity partners." It means the hockey side has no idea what is going on or who is in charge or who is going to be in charge.

But, and it is important. It may not look like it but this is actually great progress. It will be settled. LeBreton will be built and fans will be able to go back to only having to worry about what is happening on the ice.
Bartacus
Ottawa Senators
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 01.08.2019

Jul 5 @ 8:05 PM ET
The thing that Lazar and White really have in common is that they're both examples of the team going out of their way to waste 1st round picks on middle-6 talent, which is a complete waste of time. Consider the quality of player that trading a 1st round piece typically yields, vs. using that same resource to draft a player who will take 4-5 years to "maybe" become a 3rd-pairing forward. Draft with a different mindset and Lazar becomes Burakovsky/Mantha, while White becomes Konecny/Boeser. That's not Monday QB stuff either, because all 4 of those players were explicitly discussed options in various mock-drafts and pundit assessments when those selections were made by the Senators.
- khawk


Agree 100%. You should always draft the best player available, and focus on potential and ceiling in the first round. I remember being super excited to see Konecny drafted when White was as he played just up the road and seemed a shoe in. Now we are buying out White and talking about trading futures for the guy who was right there. Freddie Gauthier. You don't draft players who are 'safe bet' bottom six players with first round picks.
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