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Forums :: Blog World :: Kevin Francis: Alex DeBrincat traded to the Ottawa SenatorsQ
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Gord_Wilson_2.0
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.11.2011

Jul 12 @ 8:03 PM ET
I don't mind the trade. Talbot isn't necessarily the best goalie but he is better quality than Ottawa has had in a few seasons. I think he can get the job done on a skilled team. You just a need a goalie that makes the saves he should make to be successful in todays NHL.

Gust was dropping down the depth chart. Good time to move the asset to get something more stable. Talbot is on a nice deal too.

Good trade.

The naysayers here are getting tiresome. Could bring in Bobby Orr and Wayne Gretzky in their prime on this team and they would find something wrong with that.
Barrykerr1
Joined: 08.06.2014

Jul 12 @ 8:06 PM ET
With all due respect to our belated owner, I think you are bang on with this HH.
- Bartacus


I have to agree with you on this! The home runs Pierre Dorion has hit lately have been amazing! Todays trade to obtain Talbot has shored up the Sens biggest weak spot in my estimation. Gustavsson was horrid this past season and quite possibly be the same again next year. There is no doubt Talbot will be the number 1 goalie next year, they won’t say that but it will happen. Dorion is on fire, I can’t wait to see what the next few days bring! The only downer is DJ Smith, will he play the young players to help their development or keep throwing out his pets like Zaitsev?
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 12 @ 8:06 PM ET
I like the trade. Talbot provides a 1A/1B to Forsberg at the critical goaltending position. If Forsberg falters, we have a proven starter to take over the net. Gustavsson had a so so year last year, in part due to the team's mishandling of his development. That said, Gustavsson is not at the same level as Talbot right now and Sogaard has passed him on the organizational depth chart.

The team saved over $11M in real dollars over the next 2 years by moving Matt Murray. Talbot has a $3.6M cap hit but just $3M in actual salary.

- SensFan25


Cap management is so important. Talbot has only one year left on his deal. Taking on a player for one year may be really important for some cap flexibility. Buy-outs are dead money and short term deals or players on the last year of their contract are effective choices.


Gord_Wilson_2.0
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.11.2011

Jul 12 @ 8:23 PM ET
Is anyone else getting the impression that PD may have been significantly disadvantaged - even more than had been previously suspected - while under the watch / control of Mr. Melnyk? I have to say, most if not all of his moves from the last few weeks have been on point if not impressive.

I know many on here cannot seem to let go of their dislike of PD, which is a shame, but his performance has been ten-fold improved. You have to wonder how much of the last few years was simply out of his control.

Perhaps he was simply a little early (ie still unduly restrained) in announcing the rebuild was over last year?

- HoweHatrick

I've been wondering the same the last couple of days. Hard to dislike most of what he has done in a summer with no Eugene. Will be interesting to see how things continue. Certainly one of the most fun off seasons in recent memory.
spazzbot
Location: Maple Zombie
Joined: 02.14.2013

Jul 12 @ 8:24 PM ET
The Sens are still saving 1 mil? On goalies incl murrays 25% i think it was needed move for today. We still need to find a #1 in next 2 years.All we have to do is look down the 401 highway to see how important it is to solidify that position.

I hope tomorrow brings in a big D. Then call it a day, hard pass on Giruix and big$$$ he will want. But if we get both i wont complain.

This has been like a christmas that we have been waiting 5 years for.
Definetly getting closer to the playoffs.
HoweHatrick
Joined: 01.02.2014

Jul 12 @ 8:32 PM ET
Notwithstanding the potential acquisition of a D and perhaps a quality UFA, along with signing the RFAs the team needs to lock up, I think easily the biggest question mark for this coming season will be player deployment and team systems.

Is Coach Smith going to modify the team systems to be better suited toward the new and improved team he has? If that is the case, this will be an extremely exciting season and I think the team takes a big step towards contention. If not, I see the team taking a step in the right direction but perhaps not as far as the team has the potential to progress.
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Jul 12 @ 8:46 PM ET
Hey, at least he's making efforts! Compare this off season to Gudbranson, Stepan and Paquette. The problem with the Oilers is it's a two man team. This looks like anything but a two man team, and after tomorrow we'll get a good sense of what to expect next season. And if you are right and it's a losing squad we field, Dorion likely loses his job. If that's what you want, well it's been set up to possibly happen and you should be *psyched*. Unlike recent years, the writing isn't on the wall before the puck even drops. That's pretty cool.
- Bartacus

I don't think this will be a losing squad. Not at all. If Dorion would have done nothing at all the team would have performed better this year without playing a bunch of games at half strength because of Covid and riddled with injuries to key players all year. If Forsberg stabilizes the net and Smith is forced to play the young D not all at once but through the year then I think it was inevitable that they would do better.

Adding DeBrincat has made them even better. There is no question in my mind about that. Adding Talbot in goal is safer than just Forsberg and Gus which I've posted my doubts about

The problems I see with DeBrincat are that if you're only keeping him for less than 2 years then you've pissed away assets for a little short term gratification. If you sign him to an extension than I think you've badly damaged any Cup hopes because I don't think such a small player will do well in the playoffs .

I would have kept Murray and the picks, waived him and sent him to Belleville just in case Forsberg and Gus ran into trouble.

I'd play both Sanderson with Zub and Thomson with Chabot and if they didn't come along I'd start looking real hard for a RD then. I'd give JBD a look.

I probably would be a lottery team one more time but I would sign Norris and Stutzle for less than 8 million each, maybe even bridge Norris. I would sign Zub and Formenton and try and keep Brown.

If Dorion did those things he would most likely be fired and that's the difference. I 'm not concerned about my job. I want to win multiple Cups in the next 10 years.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Jul 12 @ 8:47 PM ET
Notwithstanding the potential acquisition of a D and perhaps a quality UFA, along with signing the RFAs the team needs to lock up, I think easily the biggest question mark for this coming season will be player deployment and team systems.

Is Coach Smith going to modify the team systems to be better suited toward the new and improved team he has? If that is the case, this will be an extremely exciting season and I think the team takes a big step towards contention. If not, I see the team taking a step in the right direction but perhaps not as far as the team has the potential to progress.

- HoweHatrick

Agreed... it's time for DJ to prove that he's more than a discount stopgap of a head coach. That may be part of any Giroux signing as well... a declared willingness on Dorion's part to move on from Smith if he continues to prove incapable of putting the pieces together. It would be ambitious to claim they're going to take a playoff spot away from an older team like Washington, Boston, or Pittsburgh this year, but if nothing else they need to be in the hunt. Beyond that, the expectations only grow for this team, so this really has to be the final year for tolerance for DJ's limitations.
PavohnDatsvares
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.03.2016

Jul 12 @ 8:48 PM ET
Idk, guys. I’m just really not convinced on Talbot as an upgrade. I will be very happy to be wrong if he plays well for us.
HoweHatrick
Joined: 01.02.2014

Jul 12 @ 9:05 PM ET
So with the recent player movement, the Senators have ~$22.5M in cap space.

The team needs to sign Norris, Formenton, Joseph and Brannstrom as RFAs this summer. The team should also seriously look at extending Zub as well. How much of the $22.5M do these players command?

Potential cap savings could be achieved by moving out Zaitsev to the tune of $4.5M if there is no salary retained in the deal that moves the player. Brown is a potential savings of $3.6M as well but is an asset to the team. Does his value on the trade market eclipse his value this season?

Barring no moves with any of these players, at the conclusion of the 22-23 season, the Senators will have Talbot ($3.7M), Brown ($3.6M), Hamonic ($3M), Zub ($2.5M), Watson ($1.5M), Holden ($1.3M) all at a UFA status. This amounts to almost $15.6M towards the cap.

Stutzle ($950K), Gambrell ($950K) and Pinto ($925K) will all be RFA status and the team will need new deals for at least 2/3 of these players.

Cap management is key. Interesting time to be a Senators fan.
HoweHatrick
Joined: 01.02.2014

Jul 12 @ 9:07 PM ET
Idk, guys. I’m just really not convinced on Talbot as an upgrade. I will be very happy to be wrong if he plays well for us.
- PavohnDatsvares


If he can soundly split the load with Forsberg it will be a win.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Jul 12 @ 9:10 PM ET
Idk, guys. I’m just really not convinced on Talbot as an upgrade. I will be very happy to be wrong if he plays well for us.
- PavohnDatsvares

Talbot isn't great, but he's at least a competent NHL-quality goaltender. Whether he's an upgrade on Forsberg depends a lot on whether Forsberg is capable of repeating last year's performance... which is by no means a foregone conclusion (see Hammond, Andrew). Plus he doesn't have to be better than Forsberg - the goal is to have a strong tandem, because it will be a 1A/1B scenario in Ottawa for quite some time (reminiscent of the old Tugnutt/Rhodes days). As for whether he's an upgrade on Murray/Gustavsson, that's just not even a real question. Talbot is coming off a 30W season with a >.910 sv%... something Murray hasn't done since 2016/17, and Gustavsson may never get a chance to accomplish in his entire career. Sogaard has the higher potential upside, and now has a much clearer development path.
HoweHatrick
Joined: 01.02.2014

Jul 12 @ 9:11 PM ET
The Senators still have their 2023 1st Round pick. If that is in play, the return has to be a quality defender at a solid cap hit with some term / negotiable rights.
Mithos
Joined: 04.14.2021

Jul 12 @ 9:19 PM ET
Meanwhile, Rudolf Balcers is being bought out by SJS
Mithos
Joined: 04.14.2021

Jul 12 @ 9:24 PM ET
Kevin could getting Talbot be insurance incase Forsberg falters so OTT does not end up in the bottom 10 thus being a lottery pick for OTT if they send a unprotected 2023 1st for Chychrun
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 12 @ 9:32 PM ET
Just got in folks....hoping to have a new piece up in an hour....sorry I haven't been able to read the last few pages of comments or reply to them.
PavohnDatsvares
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.03.2016

Jul 12 @ 9:35 PM ET
Talbot isn't great, but he's at least a competent NHL-quality goaltender. Whether he's an upgrade on Forsberg depends a lot on whether Forsberg is capable of repeating last year's performance... which is by no means a foregone conclusion (see Hammond, Andrew). Plus he doesn't have to be better than Forsberg - the goal is to have a strong tandem, because it will be a 1A/1B scenario in Ottawa for quite some time (reminiscent of the old Tugnutt/Rhodes days). As for whether he's an upgrade on Murray/Gustavsson, that's just not even a real question. Talbot is coming off a 30W season with a >.910 sv%... something Murray hasn't done since 2016/17, and Gustavsson may never get a chance to accomplish in his entire career. Sogaard has the higher potential upside, and now has a much clearer development path.
- khawk


Yeah, some good points. I hope you’re right, bud.
Not_Yan
St Louis Blues
Location: it's an excellent product, easier, quicker, and even better than real mashed potatoes.
Joined: 04.19.2013

Jul 12 @ 9:42 PM ET
Talbot isn't great, but he's at least a competent NHL-quality goaltender. Whether he's an upgrade on Forsberg depends a lot on whether Forsberg is capable of repeating last year's performance... which is by no means a foregone conclusion (see Hammond, Andrew). Plus he doesn't have to be better than Forsberg - the goal is to have a strong tandem, because it will be a 1A/1B scenario in Ottawa for quite some time (reminiscent of the old Tugnutt/Rhodes days). As for whether he's an upgrade on Murray/Gustavsson, that's just not even a real question. Talbot is coming off a 30W season with a >.910 sv%... something Murray hasn't done since 2016/17, and Gustavsson may never get a chance to accomplish in his entire career. Sogaard has the higher potential upside, and now has a much clearer development path.
- khawk


Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 12 @ 9:52 PM ET
Kevin could getting Talbot be insurance incase Forsberg falters so OTT does not end up in the bottom 10 thus being a lottery pick for OTT if they send a unprotected 2023 1st for Chychrun
- Mithos


Great point...absolutely could be part of his thinking...but it has been quiet on the AZ front today....mind you things change fast these days as witnessed with Murray and Talbot!
Whatisavailable
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.20.2021

Jul 12 @ 9:58 PM ET
Kevin could getting Talbot be insurance incase Forsberg falters so OTT does not end up in the bottom 10 thus being a lottery pick for OTT if they send a unprotected 2023 1st for Chychrun
- Mithos

That's exactly what I was thinking. Watching any of the top picks go to AZ next near would be hard to survive. Not a good look for Dorion. Talbot is definitely safer than Gus at this point.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Jul 12 @ 10:02 PM ET
Kevin could getting Talbot be insurance incase Forsberg falters so OTT does not end up in the bottom 10 thus being a lottery pick for OTT if they send a unprotected 2023 1st for Chychrun
- Mithos

That's a pretty bizarre finale to one of the secondary pieces of the Karlsson trade. I recall some people being pretty high on Balcers, and quite pissed at Dorion for not managing him better... though I have to admit I never saw the upside. But it's funny how people always have their 'fringe favourite' players. I was really big into Peter Regin, and swore up and down he had serious middle-6 potential. Turns out that's only true in Jokerit... though I did see Regin was the captain for Denmark at the WC this year, where they beat Canada in the round robin. Clearly, my faith has been vindicated.
HoweHatrick
Joined: 01.02.2014

Jul 12 @ 10:04 PM ET
At what point do you stop collecting picks and prospects and jump in the pool?
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 12 @ 10:05 PM ET
Just posted a new blog, short but with info on a couple of fronts! I wanted to get this posted tonight to get discussion on it!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Jul 12 @ 10:09 PM ET
At what point do you stop collecting picks and prospects and jump in the pool?
- HoweHatrick


100% with you!
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