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Forums :: Blog World :: Ben Shelley: Analyzing the Alexander Romanov trade
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kindlyrick
New York Islanders
Location: Dallas, TX
Joined: 06.21.2007

Jul 14 @ 11:10 AM ET
Probably, but in all honesty, the isles have been to the playoffs 3 of the last 4 yrs, went to two conference finals and were a couple of goals away from getting to a final. They have a gorgeous new arena and an Unbelievable practice facility (which I’m sure Columbus has too, but those things have removed the venue uncertainty from the fold). They have good ownership. There are no excuses available to rely on for shortcomings in recruiting elite talent. Lou needs to do a better job recruiting elite players. It’s that simple
- Jethro09


You had 10 million offered to Tavares, you missed on Panarin, and now whiffed on Gaudreau. If nothing else you've admitted the need for an elite scorer. If he does not land that scorer, Barzal will walk. This is literally the same issue the isles have had for yearssssss. Snow tried to address it with Vanek, but other than that the isles havent had a 1/2 punch for decades.
crdemartino
New York Islanders
Location: Severna Park, MD
Joined: 06.29.2011

Jul 14 @ 11:24 AM ET
Well, I don't agree on the cap part at all. I will say that I think the isles benefitted greatly from the covid shortened seasons, which allowed system focused teams to excel while others struggled to find consistency. Were it not for the long layoff after Pelech's injury, we likely would not have made the playoffs the first time around.
I think reality caught up with us a bit last year, coupled with some really bad luck covid-wise and schedule-wise. This season should be a return to normal, thus providing a better picture of who we really are.

- keaner17


Ok, maybe not cap at this particular moment. I guess I meant trouble to the point where we had to dump Toews and leddy just to sign extensions
keaner17
New York Islanders
Location: Prepared for the worst
Joined: 07.12.2007

Jul 14 @ 11:36 AM ET
Looking at the Isles present cap standing, we sit $11.1m below the cap limit. This is without Dobson, Bellows and Romanov figured in. I don't know how much each will command, but it's clear that Lou needed to eliminate at least one of the Bailey, Beau or Varly contracts to make JG happen. They offered $9m reportedly but couldn't go higher. My guess is that $9m would have put us somewhere close to the 10% over the cap limit.
Thats not a defense of Lou since he put us in that situation in the first place. Just a reality that there was likely a limit of what we could offer
crdemartino
New York Islanders
Location: Severna Park, MD
Joined: 06.29.2011

Jul 14 @ 11:38 AM ET
Probably, but in all honesty, the isles have been to the playoffs 3 of the last 4 yrs, went to two conference finals and were a couple of goals away from getting to a final. They have a gorgeous new arena and an Unbelievable practice facility (which I’m sure Columbus has too, but those things have removed the venue uncertainty from the fold). They have good ownership. There are no excuses available to rely on for shortcomings in recruiting elite talent. Lou needs to do a better job recruiting elite players. It’s that simple
- Jethro09


Those two “ECFs” mean absolutely nothing. In no way should it be looked at as a barometer. I don’t understand the fawning over that. They were illegitimate seasons, two illegitimate Cup wins for Tampa and they would’ve been two illegitimate Cup wins for us. I’ve never seen a Cup. I can’t wait to see one, but would I have been psyched that the first or only one I see was during some bullshît half season? Absolutely not. It would’ve felt empty.


You don’t count an ECF appearance until it’s an actual ECF appearance. Half a season doesn’t count for anything. It’s an exhibition year. Do it for real. To think otherwise is insane to me. Maybe I’m the only one. What the hell do I know though? I’m just a LI expat in Capitals territory trying to keep my 6 year olds occupied because we forgot to sign them up for summer camps early enough. 🙄
ses111
New York Islanders
Joined: 06.07.2008

Jul 14 @ 11:50 AM ET
Those two “ECFs” mean absolutely nothing. In no way should it be looked at as a barometer. I don’t understand the fawning over that. They were illegitimate seasons, two illegitimate Cup wins for Tampa and they would’ve been two illegitimate Cup wins for us. I’ve never seen a Cup. I can’t wait to see one, but would I have been psyched that the first or only one I see was during some bullshît half season? Absolutely not. It would’ve felt empty.


You don’t count an ECF appearance until it’s an actual ECF appearance. Half a season doesn’t count for anything. It’s an exhibition year. Do it for real. To think otherwise is insane to me. Maybe I’m the only one. What the hell do I know though? I’m just a LI expat in Capitals territory trying to keep my 6 year olds occupied because we forgot to sign them up for summer camps early enough. 🙄

- crdemartino


I did enjoy those long playoff runs and would have gladly taken a Cup win, but those were very strange situations so maybe it was not a true indication of the team and their needs? Regardless, those wins do not help the situation now and have not helped in terms of signing quality FA's.
niteislander
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 01.13.2010

Jul 14 @ 11:51 AM ET
You had 10 million offered to Tavares, you missed on Panarin, and now whiffed on Gaudreau. If nothing else you've admitted the need for an elite scorer. If he does not land that scorer, Barzal will walk. This is literally the same issue the isles have had for yearssssss. Snow tried to address it with Vanek, but other than that the isles havent had a 1/2 punch for decades.
- kindlyrick


We offered JT more than $10 mill .. I think $12 actually for 8 years.
We also offered Panarin over $12 mill.. I think $12.5 mill. He is the only one that actually took less though.. to play in NYC (moron).

JT took less but got a lot more money in his toronto contract.. and is making a lot more in commercials, advertising, etc. than he would have on Isles. He took home more from his signing bonus ($55 mill take home b/c of Canada tax rate on bonuses).. than he would have for his entire contract from Isles 8 years. He then gets his salary every year, his interest on the money he got, and all the Ad money.

I hope he put it all in bitcoin.
batteryjackson
New York Islanders
Location: MEDICINE HAT MEDICINE PUSHERS, AB
Joined: 09.30.2014

Jul 14 @ 11:52 AM ET
there's no crying in hockey. i think. free agency opening day every year puts that narrative into question.
Cptmjl
New York Islanders
Joined: 11.05.2011

Jul 14 @ 12:07 PM ET
I said it last night and I’ll say it again…sad truth is we play in the Rangers shadow, just like the Devils too. I think we underestimate how much of a factor that is for players. All these guys have egos, don’t care if you’re the biggest “team” guy on the roster or the most selfish bastard on the roster…would you rather run Midtown Manhattan or Elmont or Newark?

It’s honestly the only thing I can think of. Maybe the Lou factor is real. We go another year without making the playoffs though, and I bet dollars to doughnuts, Lou’s a goner. Then we’ll see what the narrative is when Barzal doesn’t sign here or another big UFA snubs us. Big reason I see a trade coming up, even, maybe today. Lou wants to save his job and no one wants to sign here.

- potvin05

It’s cuz taxes.
eichiefs9
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 11.03.2008

Jul 14 @ 12:08 PM ET
It’s cuz taxes.
- Cptmjl

I am far from an accountant, but I wonder if there's not a work-around like how Toronto essentially paid Tavares almost entirely in bonus money because it's taxed differently in Canada. That would obviously require the team to be very liquid, and I imagine liquidity is not their strong suit after building the arena, but I'd be curious to know if that'd make sense in NYS
UIF
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 01.09.2009

Jul 14 @ 12:09 PM ET
Looking at the Isles present cap standing, we sit $11.1m below the cap limit. This is without Dobson, Bellows and Romanov figured in. I don't know how much each will command, but it's clear that Lou needed to eliminate at least one of the Bailey, Beau or Varly contracts to make JG happen. They offered $9m reportedly but couldn't go higher. My guess is that $9m would have put us somewhere close to the 10% over the cap limit.
Thats not a defense of Lou since he put us in that situation in the first place. Just a reality that there was likely a limit of what we could offer

- keaner17


Another reality is that just re-signing Dobson, Bellows, and Romanov is not enough to bring the Cup to the Island. So, if high-end talent cannot be brought in because they truly need the money to re-sign their players, but just re-signing their players won't be enough to win a Cup, then what is the ultimate plan for success? I think we'd all agree that spending the leftover money on a couple of support players is not what the team needs, right?

I gotta believe there's a better plan in the works. I don't see how one can drop a bomb like firing Trotz, follow that up with only Romanov and a few other support pieces, and then say, "Aren't you psyched?! Buy season tickets now!" If for no other reason than generating excitement for a building that needs to be filled, I would think Lou's working on something much bigger after missing out on Gaudreau.
JohnScammo
New York Islanders
Location: Coming to a jail near you
Joined: 10.14.2014

Jul 14 @ 12:22 PM ET
I am far from an accountant, but I wonder if there's not a work-around like how Toronto essentially paid Tavares almost entirely in bonus money because it's taxed differently in Canada. That would obviously require the team to be very liquid, and I imagine liquidity is not their strong suit after building the arena, but I'd be curious to know if that'd make sense in NYS
- eichiefs9

I too am far from an accountant, but I doubt that NYS has any special rules for taxing bonuses. That seems like a Canadian exception.......maybe to keep their teams competitive in the event of the weak loonie?

Interesting that Calgary couldn't take advantage of this to sign Gaudreau. Maybe because he's a U.S. citizen?
keaner17
New York Islanders
Location: Prepared for the worst
Joined: 07.12.2007

Jul 14 @ 12:26 PM ET
Another reality is that just re-signing Dobson, Bellows, and Romanov is not enough to bring the Cup to the Island. So, if high-end talent cannot be brought in because they truly need the money to re-sign their players, but just re-signing their players won't be enough to win a Cup, then what is the ultimate plan for success? I think we'd all agree that spending the leftover money on a couple of support players is not what the team needs, right?

I gotta believe there's a better plan in the works. I don't see how one can drop a bomb like firing Trotz, follow that up with only Romanov and a few other support pieces, and then say, "Aren't you psyched?! Buy season tickets now!" If for no other reason than generating excitement for a building that needs to be filled, I would think Lou's working on something much bigger after missing out on Gaudreau.

- UIF


I think the $$ attached to Bailey and Varley loom large at this point.
kindlyrick
New York Islanders
Location: Dallas, TX
Joined: 06.21.2007

Jul 14 @ 12:27 PM ET
I too am far from an accountant, but I doubt that NYS has any special rules for taxing bonuses. That seems like a Canadian exception.......maybe to keep their teams competitive in the event of the weak loonie?

Interesting that Calgary couldn't take advantage of this to sign Gaudreau. Maybe because he's a U.S. citizen?

- JohnScammo



I think bonus’ are taxed higher in New York. Maybe 50%
nyisles7
New York Islanders
Location: Wrong timing, NY
Joined: 01.20.2009

Jul 14 @ 12:31 PM ET
I too am far from an accountant, but I doubt that NYS has any special rules for taxing bonuses. That seems like a Canadian exception.......maybe to keep their teams competitive in the event of the weak loonie?

Interesting that Calgary couldn't take advantage of this to sign Gaudreau. Maybe because he's a U.S. citizen?

- JohnScammo



JT’s tax advantage was because he claimed to be and is a US resident. So JG if paid as bonuses and not salary like JT deal he too ( if he’s still a US resident) could have taken advantage of this tax loop as well not paying the ~ 55% Canadian tax on the bonus.
eichiefs9
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 11.03.2008

Jul 14 @ 12:34 PM ET
I too am far from an accountant, but I doubt that NYS has any special rules for taxing bonuses. That seems like a Canadian exception.......maybe to keep their teams competitive in the event of the weak loonie?

Interesting that Calgary couldn't take advantage of this to sign Gaudreau. Maybe because he's a U.S. citizen?

- JohnScammo

I dunno, I'd find it tough to believe that Canada wrote their tax code so that their pro sports teams could be competitive with US teams
nyisles7
New York Islanders
Location: Wrong timing, NY
Joined: 01.20.2009

Jul 14 @ 12:34 PM ET
Another reality is that just re-signing Dobson, Bellows, and Romanov is not enough to bring the Cup to the Island. So, if high-end talent cannot be brought in because they truly need the money to re-sign their players, but just re-signing their players won't be enough to win a Cup, then what is the ultimate plan for success? I think we'd all agree that spending the leftover money on a couple of support players is not what the team needs, right?

I gotta believe there's a better plan in the works. I don't see how one can drop a bomb like firing Trotz, follow that up with only Romanov and a few other support pieces, and then say, "Aren't you psyched?! Buy season tickets now!" If for no other reason than generating excitement for a building that needs to be filled, I would think Lou's working on something much bigger after missing out on Gaudreau.

- UIF


I think Lou’s gonna see how the team starts the season under Lambert with an emphasis on how the offense is playing and the performance of some of our younger assets. If the team is playing well and in PO contention then keep going and try to add at the deadline or sooner. If they sputter out of the gate I believe the trade winds will be blowing in Islander Country.
keaner17
New York Islanders
Location: Prepared for the worst
Joined: 07.12.2007

Jul 14 @ 12:35 PM ET
It’s cuz taxes.
- Cptmjl

I honestly dint understand how anyone can so easily dismiss that factor. An NHL player typically has a seven year window to make the most money they will EVER make. If the Isles only offered $5m and CBJ offered $7m, would anyone here really ignore that and continue to say 'why doesn't anyone want to play here?'.
There are almost always going to be a multitude of factors involved, but if folks don't think money is a primary motivation for the vast majority of players at that age, they're fooling thenselves.
eichiefs9
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 11.03.2008

Jul 14 @ 12:35 PM ET
I think the $$ attached to Bailey and Varley loom large at this point.
- keaner17

I totally understand not moving Varly, but if the reason for not moving Bailey was because they didn't want to...I think that's patently absurd.

Even if we had to attach a 2nd round pick to him to entice someone to take him...I think pretty much anyone on earth would, essentially, trade Bailey and a 2nd for a player that just put up 115pts in one season
nyisles7
New York Islanders
Location: Wrong timing, NY
Joined: 01.20.2009

Jul 14 @ 12:37 PM ET
I dunno, I'd find it tough to believe that Canada wrote their tax code so that their pro sports teams could be competitive with US teams
- eichiefs9


It’s a two way street.

“Article XVI of the US-Canada tax treaty states that signing bonuses paid to a resident of the US by a Canadian team are taxed at 15% in Canada, and vice versa for US teams paying bonuses to Canadian residents.”



eichiefs9
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 11.03.2008

Jul 14 @ 12:41 PM ET
It’s a two way street.

“Article XVI of the US-Canada tax treaty states that signing bonuses paid to a resident of the US by a Canadian team are taxed at 15% in Canada, and vice versa for US teams paying bonuses to Canadian residents.”

- nyisles7

Interesting
nyisles7
New York Islanders
Location: Wrong timing, NY
Joined: 01.20.2009

Jul 14 @ 12:41 PM ET
I honestly dint understand how anyone can so easily dismiss that factor. An NHL player typically has a seven year window to make the most money they will EVER make. If the Isles only offered $5m and CBJ offered $7m, would anyone here really ignore that and continue to say 'why doesn't anyone want to play here?'.
There are almost always going to be a multitude of factors involved, but if folks don't think money is a primary motivation for the vast majority of players at that age, they're fooling thenselves.

- keaner17



Obviously because they don’t make enough to realize the effect!
keaner17
New York Islanders
Location: Prepared for the worst
Joined: 07.12.2007

Jul 14 @ 12:43 PM ET
I totally understand not moving Varly, but if the reason for not moving Bailey was because they didn't want to...I think that's patently absurd.

Even if we had to attach a 2nd round pick to him to entice someone to take him...I think pretty much anyone on earth would, essentially, trade Bailey and a 2nd for a player that just put up 115pts in one season

- eichiefs9

You would think so. There has never really been any rumor of them shopping Bailey, yet we've heard Beau rumors a few times over.

But Lou keeps the room dark
nyisles7
New York Islanders
Location: Wrong timing, NY
Joined: 01.20.2009

Jul 14 @ 12:46 PM ET
Interesting
- eichiefs9



So this tells me that he wanted out of Calgary. I’m thinking maybe Sutter ruling with an iron fist up there in Calgary. Lou with his very regimented rules and regulations here and Torts being in Philly are making me think JG doesn’t like tough disciplined coaches / GM’s ?
Wait you want me to block a shot from the point?!
nyisles7
New York Islanders
Location: Wrong timing, NY
Joined: 01.20.2009

Jul 14 @ 12:48 PM ET
I totally understand not moving Varly, but if the reason for not moving Bailey was because they didn't want to...I think that's patently absurd.

Even if we had to attach a 2nd round pick to him to entice someone to take him...I think pretty much anyone on earth would, essentially, trade Bailey and a 2nd for a player that just put up 115pts in one season

- eichiefs9


100% agree if in fact you know JG is/would come here. If not you have more points to find.
eichiefs9
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 11.03.2008

Jul 14 @ 12:49 PM ET
You would think so. There has never really been any rumor of them shopping Bailey, yet we've heard Beau rumors a few times over.

But Lou keeps the room dark

- keaner17

At this point it's impossible for me to decipher what is speculation from the media about who could be available vs. what's actually a rumor

This isn't a criticism of Lou, but man it sure is more fun when you're team actually has some legitimate rumors out there and not just radio silence and speculation
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