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Flyers’ front office’s plan? Job security? Team success?
It’s time for another edition of the Flyers mailbag. And unsurprisingly, the questions this time around aren’t exactly positive.
In the wake of the Flyers’ relative lack of activity in free agency — beyond bringing back Justin Braun and signing tough guy Nicolas Deslauriers to a four-year contract — frustration in the fan base (particularly those online) has been palpable. General manager Chuck Fletcher’s decision to stay away from local product Johnny Gaudreau and instead focus on beefing up the blue line corps due to the uncertainty surrounding Ryan Ellis’ status was a surprise for fans expecting an “aggressive retool,” promised by Fletcher and ownership in late January.
It should come as little shock that there isn’t much optimism in this month’s questions.
Note: Submitted questions edited for clarity and style.
Hi Charlie! Torts’ recent comments made it seem like he knows that we are in a rebuild. I feel like Chuck is trying to save face with the fans by labeling it as a “retool” but want to know your thoughts on what this franchise looks like in 3-5 years. I’d have to bet that both Torts and Chuck are long gone by then … — Kyle B.
This is a good kick-off question for the mailbag, because it speaks to the apparent disconnect between the “aggressive retool” proclaimed to be looming by Fletcher and Comcast Spectacor CEO and chairman Dave Scott in January, and the more muted approach to the offseason that ultimately played out. As a result, many fans have charged that the Flyers don’t seem to really have a plan.
I don’t think that’s accurate.
My argument is not that they don’t have a plan — it’s that their attempted plan plays as inconsistent, and it’s one that I suspect is going to be very difficult to execute successfully. But there is a plan, and it’s worth laying out my interpretation of said plan.
Basically, Fletcher and the Flyers look like they’re trying to strike a balance between a full-scale, tear-it-down rebuild and a hyper-aggressive, go-all-in-on-the-present retool. They want to improve, and do so quickly — they very much are not trying to “tank” or finish in the bottom five of the league again, and they’re willing to spend to the cap, hire an established coach with a long track record of success, and even trade away assets in order to achieve that improvement. What they don’t appear willing to do, at least yet? Trade away prime assets — top prospects, young under-25 NHL players and most notably first-round picks — to expedite that process. They still aim to follow the path of a draft-and-develop model to return to prominence, but they also want the NHL club to remain competitive while they do so.
So how do they envision the NHL club becoming competitive again quickly? Fletcher appears to be pinning much of those hopes on the impact of John Tortorella, who he believes will reinstitute structure, accountability and help foster a team-wide identity for the club. Does Fletcher expect that Tortorella can make the Flyers great in 2022-23? Nah. But he fully believes that Tortorella can make them better, so long as the club doesn’t deal with the same rash of injuries that it suffered last season. Fletcher clearly still has faith in the quality of the roster that he built heading into the 2021-22 season — proven by the fact that his only major move this offseason was to “replace” the one player he acquired in 2021 (Ellis) with the most murky injury status. Basically, the Flyers are “running it back” this season, except with Tortorella instead of Vigneault, DeAngelo instead of Ellis and Claude Giroux gone. The bet is that through better coaching, a better-structured defense and better health, they’ll be able to overcome the absence of Giroux and be closer to the team the front office thought they were prior to the 2021-22 debacle.
Now, this wouldn’t get the Flyers to Stanley Cup contention. But it would be a “stabilizing year,” as Fletcher described it after the first day of free agency. The goal would then be to use 2022-23 as a jumping-off point for further roster improvements that fit the emergence of their new team identity, which they hope adheres much closer to the traditional Flyers image than it has over the past decade. That, at its core, is the plan.
It’s not difficult to see how their offseason approach fits this plan, either. Tortorella serves both as an attempt to make the team better quickly, and as an “identity shaper.” Ristolainen was re-signed in March rather than traded at the deadline as a rental because he fits the identity they’re trying to build, in addition to the fact that Fletcher believes he’s a solid defenseman and wants his club to remain competitive in the short-term. DeAngelo, they believe, gives them a first-pair quality RHD without having to ship out a first-round pick to get one. The decision to not pursue Gaudreau was largely the result of Fletcher wanting to keep his high-end future assets and realizing that would have been necessary in order to clear up the necessary cap space to fit him. Deslauriers is another identity acquisition, in addition to further protecting the young players they’re looking to develop over the next few years.
Now, are there holes in this plan? In my estimation, absolutely. If the plan works, there’s no clear path for the Flyers to acquire the kind of high-end talent the team so desperately lacks, beyond drafting in the middle of the first round year after year and hoping that they stumble into another Giroux. Identity adds like Ristolainen and Deslauriers fly in the face of analytical team-building strategies, as does DeAngelo to a much lesser extent (his defensive flaws are very real). And their precarious cap situation isn’t exactly going to get rosy anytime soon.
Basically, for their plan to work, Tortorella needs to thrive as head coach despite being handed a roster that isn’t exactly chock full of defensive stalwarts, players like Sean Couturier, Kevin Hayes and Joel Farabee need to return at full strength from their injuries, the Flyers need to both unearth and then successfully develop a few future stars despite rarely selecting at the top of the draft and the team needs to coalesce around a hard-to-play-against identity that they haven’t possessed in years. That’s a lot of things that need to break the Flyers’ way and why I remain skeptical of this overarching plan. But it is a definitely a plan.
Why do you think Chuck gave four years to Deslauriers? My theory is that Chuck is now viewing this team as a four-year rebuild, even though he won’t publicly admit it. Deslauriers is here less about building a Flyers identity of being hard to play against and more just to preventing the young players from getting injured (thus delaying development) through them feeling the need to fight and preventing opposing teams from being overly physical toward our players due to Deslauriers “presence.” Do I agree with this move? No, of course not, I’m not an idiot and would never give four years to a below average fourth-liner. — Brian M.
The simplest explanation as to why Fletcher gave Deslauriers a four-year contract is because that’s what it was going to take to sign him. My understanding is that the market was pretty strong on Deslauriers, and the Flyers had targeted him as a key add for their bottom six. They wanted to make sure they won the bidding for him and adding more years than other clubs are willing to add is one surefire way to catch a player and his agent’s attention. I really think it’s that simple.
Now, just because there was an active market for Deslauriers’ services, that doesn’t mean that the Flyers had to be the team that “won” the bidding. Sometimes, the market overvalues a player. That’s what I believe happened with Ristolainen as well — there were indeed other clubs willing to offer first-round picks to get him from the Sabres, the Flyers just had the highest pick to offer in 2021. But the existence of similar packages offered by other clubs doesn’t mean that the winning offer is inherently more justifiable. Part of shrewd team building is knowing when to walk away from negotiations with a player or team. My guess is that with Deslauriers, the Flyers were so locked in on him as their “toughness” add that they made sure they got it done and were willing to cave on term to do it.
As for your theory about why they signed Deslauriers, I half-agree with you. I disagree that Fletcher sees this as a four-year rebuild and that the identity element was minimally important. The Flyers do want to turn this around quickly and believe that Deslauriers will help foster the kind of identity that they believe will lead to on-ice success. That said, the “protect the kids” motivation was very real as well, given Deslauriers’ reputation as one of the toughest players in hockey. This middle ground retool/rebuild only works if the prospects and youngsters take further steps, and the Flyers do believe — rightly or wrongly — that Deslauriers will help in that regard. I have my doubts that they’re correct (and also wonder why Deslauriers is necessary after adding Ristolainen and Zack MacEwen to serve similar purposes over the last calendar year) but I do believe that’s a significant portion of the thought process behind the signing.
John Tortorella (Jerome Miron / USA Today)
If the Flyers are one of the worst 2-4 teams in the league, would Tortorella’s job be at risk too? If they end up lucky enough to draft Connor Bedard, I’d hate to waste his and Cutter Gauthier’s rookie year to Tortorella yelling at them to block more pucks and don’t score goals that are too fancy. — Clinton P.
Tortorella’s job? Nah. I think ownership is very excited about Tortorella’s cultural fit in Philadelphia, and don’t forget that they’re still paying Alain Vigneault through 2023-24 as well. Unless Tortorella proves to be a total disaster and the entire team tunes him out to the point of on-ice embarrassment, I can’t see him just getting a one-year leash, even if the Flyers turn out to be awful in 2022-23.
Fletcher, on the other hand? Sure, a bottom-four finish would put him at serious risk of losing his job.
How hot is Fletcher’s seat? The public reaction to the Gaudreau debacle is embarrassing on a national scale. Would a mediocre .500 first half of the season be enough for a shake-up or do you think it would take an even more disappointing start to force their hand? — Jackson S.
I doubt a “mediocre” first half would result in ownership making a change at GM, in large part because “mediocre” would be a dramatic improvement over what the Flyers delivered last season.
Do I think Fletcher is on the hot seat? Yes, I do believe the Flyers have to be showing tangible progress in 2022-23 for ownership to continue to stick with Fletcher. There has to be evidence that things are playing out according to Fletcher’s plan — that the team is looking more competitive, hanging around in the playoff hunt and checking the “tougher to play against” box. If the Flyers are an utter disaster yet again… well, they already fired the coach when that happened last season. I can’t see them canning Tortorella a few months into his first season, and if ownership feels like a big change needs to be made to showcase their dissatisfaction with the direction of the organization, the general manager is the next logical spot for them to look.
The good news for Fletcher is that it really shouldn’t be terribly difficult for the Flyers to improve. Don’t forget, this team was awful last season — the fourth-worst record in the NHL with 61 points. The Flyers could show signs of progress, gain 20 points in the standings and still be 20 points out of the final playoff spot in the East. My hunch is that “mediocrity with plausible upside” would be enough for ownership to keep Fletcher. After all, they’ve trusted him so far, so unless they just straight up bow to fan sentiment, I’m not sure why they’d deviate course unless the club remains in the basement.
Can you recap how we got here as a franchise? We have no top-end talent. Our farm system is meh? Yet somehow we are always in salary cap trouble. Are the Flyers the least innovative franchise in the league? — Shawn B.
Such analysis would take a full column. But if I was going to point to one thing that led to the Flyers’ current predicament of lacking top-end talent with no clear path to get it, it’s that the crown jewels of the Ron Hextall retool — Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny, Nolan Patrick, Carter Hart — all either stagnated or regressed.
The whole thought process behind Hextall’s plan was to provide players like Giroux and Jakub Voracek with young teammates who would slowly lessen their load so that they could age gracefully into their 30s and become the second tier on the club behind the drafted players who would then be entering their primes. And in 2019-20, it looked like that was exactly what was happening. Provorov appeared to be developing into a legit No. 1 defenseman given a stable partner. Konecny was scoring at nearly a point-per-game rate. Hart was establishing himself as an above average NHL starter at an extremely young age. Yes, the Patrick pick was looking iffy due to the uncertainty surrounding his injury status, but it looked like the Flyers had at least three young stars ready to take the helm from Giroux and Voracek, in addition to Couturier moving into “best all-around player on the team” status.
You know the rest. Konecny clearly regressed. One can debate how much of Provorov and Hart’s statistical declines have been due to outside factors, but it’s also fair to note that true stars dominate even in less than ideal situations, and at least at this point, neither are at that level. Patrick obviously proved to be a bust, at least in Philadelphia.
In order to build a contending team via the draft-and-develop model, you need to hit at least a couple home runs. It appeared the Flyers had. Now, it looks like they basically just hit a bunch of doubles at best. That’s not to say that Provorov, Konecny and Hart should be viewed as disappointments, to be clear. And I suspect that the current prospect pool will produce far more quality players than most frustrated fans want to admit; last season was a bit of a perfect storm in terms of injuries in that regard, which made the pool seem worse than it actually was. But at least some players have to dramatically exceed expectations for it to work, if you’re not drafting in the top-five year after year. That just didn’t happen with the Hextall crop, and this is the result — having to fill top-of-the-lineup holes with expensive free agents on the downslopes of their careers rather than cost-controlled youngsters trending upward.
Which player(s) in your mind is it most important to have “career years” — not necessarily for their personal gain — but for the team to maximize success? — Pete B.
I’ll name three.
1. Carter Hart: A lot of problems with a team can be masked when you have a starting goalie with a .925 or above save percentage. Just ask last season’s pre-trade deadline New York Rangers.
2. Tony DeAngelo: If he rewards Fletcher’s faith and becomes the stabilizing first-pair quality partner that Provorov so desperately needs, it’s hard to overstate the positive impact it would have not just on Provorov but the rest of the defense at even strength. If he can also ignite the Flyers’ moribund power play, even better.
3. Morgan Frost: A big breakout “career year” would not just lock down his full-time spot in the Flyers’ lineup for the foreseeable future, it would turn what right now looks like a roster weakness (center) into a clear strength.
The Flyers currently have 11 players in the organization with a cap hit between $4 and $8 million. This is tied for most in the league with the Islanders and Kraken at the moment of writing this.
Obviously, cap hit is not always indicative of player quality, but in general does a strategy of having more mid-level talent over having one or two superstar level players ever work? Or are you better off going all in on a couple game-changers and building around them? — Joe T.
My belief — and recent history since the dawn of the cap era backs me up — is that building around elite level talent is the path more likely to succeed. That’s not to say it’s foolproof — look at Edmonton with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. But let’s go through the teams that have won since 2010, and their three best players:
Chicago (Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith)
Los Angeles (Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty, Jonathan Quick)
Boston (Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, Zdeno Chara)
Pittsburgh (Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang)
Washington (Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov)
St. Louis (Ryan O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko, Alex Pietrangelo)
Tampa Bay (Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy)
Colorado (Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen)
For the most part, these aren’t just good players. They are future Hall of Famers, with only a few exceptions.
It’s little surprise looking at this list, however, that in talking to those in and around the organization, the team-building model they want to follow is that of the Blues. And it’s understandable — it’s the closest to a “win via depth, not superstars” Cup team in recent history. But even that club had better high-end talent than the Flyers do. O’Reilly and Couturier basically cancel each other out, but who on the Philadelphia roster right now has the dynamic offensive ability of Tarasenko? Do any of their current defensemen match up to Pietrangelo’s all-around game?
Even when matched up against the more forgiving St. Louis model, the Flyers don’t measure up.
Charlie, I want to ask the same question from two different perspectives:
Perspective 1) if you’re Travis Sanheim do you demand a trade, demand a contract equal or greater than Risto/DeAngelo, or simply play this year out and sign with a better team or team that can afford you?
Perspective 2) if you’re the Flyers, how do you convince Sanheim to stay, given that he’s your (second) best defenseman? Do you finally give him power play time? Do you offer him a raise to make him more than Risto/DeAngelo? Or do you trade him before he walks for nothing? — Scott R.
Based on what I’ve heard — and also in my conversations with Sanheim — I believe he’s fully committed to wanting to stay with the Flyers and fix this. This isn’t someone who is itching to leave town. He likes the organization, loves his teammates and wants to be part of the solution. I’m sure Sanheim would love to be handed extensive power play minutes, but I don’t see that as a deal-breaker. He’ll stay if the Flyers can offer him a fair contract that doesn’t low-ball him.
Now, will they have the ability to do so? It’s a fair question. They will be losing James van Riemsdyk’s $7 million cap hit at the end of 2022-23, so that would open up space to give Sanheim a raise. But with Provorov, DeAngelo, Ristolainen and Ellis all under contract, that’s $23.1 million tied up in four defensemen. Sure, if Ellis can’t return, his cap hit can be placed on LTIR and used to open up cap allowance. But if he can ultimately return? Perhaps Sanheim does find himself looking for a new home, especially if the front office looks to upgrade the forward corps next summer. And if that proves to be the decision made, then the Flyers should absolutely look to trade Sanheim at the deadline rather than lose him for nothing, unless they find themselves realistically in the mix for a playoff spot.
There’s a ton of pessimism going into this season (for good reasons) but I wanted to know what has to go right for them (and the likelihood it will) in order to be competitive and now a downright embarrassment? — Mike D.
Sure, let’s end this downer of a mailbag with some legitimate optimism. What could go right for the Flyers?
For starters, Couturier and Hayes could return at full strength. I’m more confident about Couturier in that regard than Hayes, but it’s certainly far from out of the realm of possibility that Hayes is back to his 2019-20 form. And that player was so popular that he even got a local beer named after him. He was pretty darn good.
Tortorella is a legitimately very good NHL head coach, and it’s certainly possible — perhaps even probable — that he gets the absolute most out of this roster. That means better two-way play, fewer brainless mistakes and a newfound cohesive approach to hockey that has been severely lacking from the Flyers over the past two seasons. Tortorella has done it before with teams possessing limited talent — he certainly could pull it off here, too. And given Torts’ fiery approach to coaching, if he does succeed, he’s going to connect with the fan base on a level that no coach has for this organization since Peter Laviolette. Tortorella could, at least in theory, be the ideal balance between old-school and new-school. He’s not a dinosaur.
I’ve argued for years that Provorov’s ideal right-handed partner would be a more offensively oriented defenseman rather than a stay-at-home blueliner; it’s why the Provorov-Gostisbehere duo worked so well. Provorov didn’t have to shoulder the majority of the puck moving load, and he was able to pick his spots more and avoid his tendency to do too much with the puck at times. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that DeAngelo’s defensive warts could be covered up by Provorov, while Provorov’s offensive limitations don’t matter as much while alongside DeAngelo. I remain skeptical, but there’s a pathway to that pair working quite well together.
And while the Flyers don’t have any prospects likely to make the team this year who project as superstars, there are more than enough who certainly emerged as well above average contributors. Cam York should be a massive upgrade over Keith Yandle. Noah Cates’ performance by advanced metrics in a limited sample last season was stellar; he could be Oskar Lindblom 2.0. Wade Allison is healthy (for now), and he has 20-plus goal power forward potential. Maybe Owen Tippett learns how to finish at the NHL level on all of those chances he creates. Perhaps Tanner Laczynski emerges as the new Michael Raffl. And maybe, just maybe, it all clicks for Frost. If multiple rookies/youngsters establish themselves quickly as legitimate NHL contributors, suddenly the Flyers could be a very deep team once again, and combined with strong coaching on the part of Tortorella, better health and a balanced defensive corps, the Flyers could take a real run at a wild card spot, even in a loaded Eastern Conference and Metropolitan Division.
Is that ambitious and overly optimistic? Probably. But it’s at least possible.
