also, who the (frank) is Dom Luszczyszynusyscycn? - Pat1993
"The way that’s measured comes from comparing a player’s GSVA and the expected salary that comes with it to a player’s current contract. Surplus value compares what they make with what the model believes they should be making, while positive value probability measures the certainty that a player will perform above his cap hit. The list of best and worst contracts is based on those two factors (with twice as much weight being placed on surplus value) looking outwards. What players have already done holds no merit, this is about the future value of the deal."
"The way that’s measured comes from comparing a player’s GSVA and the expected salary that comes with it to a player’s current contract. Surplus value compares what they make with what the model believes they should be making, while positive value probability measures the certainty that a player will perform above his cap hit. The list of best and worst contracts is based on those two factors (with twice as much weight being placed on surplus value) looking outwards. What players have already done holds no merit, this is about the future value of the deal." - VeryModernMan
"The way that’s measured comes from comparing a player’s GSVA and the expected salary that comes with it to a player’s current contract. Surplus value compares what they make with what the model believes they should be making, while positive value probability measures the certainty that a player will perform above his cap hit. The list of best and worst contracts is based on those two factors (with twice as much weight being placed on surplus value) looking outwards. What players have already done holds no merit, this is about the future value of the deal." - VeryModernMan
woah, thanks for the complete answer.
it seems complete but at the same time it doesn't really tell us what exactly is this "model" he's using. also I find the phrasing "measuring the certainty that a player will perform above his cap hit" sounds dubious, there can't be any certainty to projecting these numbers, especially when what the player has already done isn't accounted for.
"The way that’s measured comes from comparing a player’s GSVA and the expected salary that comes with it to a player’s current contract. Surplus value compares what they make with what the model believes they should be making, while positive value probability measures the certainty that a player will perform above his cap hit. The list of best and worst contracts is based on those two factors (with twice as much weight being placed on surplus value) looking outwards. What players have already done holds no merit, this is about the future value of the deal." - VeryModernMan
that news conference with PLD was a spin doctor at this best.....what utter BS....as if his agent wasn't trying to stir up a hornets nest of speculation and PLD wasn't aware...blamed the media....watching too much Trump TV PLD???....and anyone else buying the idea that he went to the NHL draft because his bank invited him and he went for the great food only 15 minutes away?.....really?....as if he couldn't afford a great restaurant and an amazing steak in the best place in town?......more BS....sorry not buying.....this is spin 101.....he sounds like a lot of trouble.....not sure he is the right fit in this new HuGo world we are all living in...
Soooo paying a player for what he did is bad, paying a player for what you hope he could do is bad.
Paying Gally that much for what he did was a terrible mistake, dont get me wrong he deserves it btu in a cap world not so much.
Paying Suzuki the salary you think he will be worth is bad, so bridge deals and show me contracts until a player has a breakout year and then you pay him for what he did and what you hope he will continue to do?
Damn chalice of tabarnacle
Location: Let the creamy goaltending season begin! Joined: 08.31.2014
Jul 27 @ 9:49 AM ET
yeah, he's 22, hasn't even reached his prime, so it just doesn't make sense to me. of course if he's already reached his ceiling in terms of offensive production it'll have been a bad contract, but to put him on this list right now simply lacks seriousness. - Pat1993
Not saying I agree with his methodology, just saying how I think he put it together.
Soooo paying a player for what he did is bad, paying a player for what you hope he could do is bad.
Paying Gally that much for what he did was a terrible mistake, dont get me wrong he deserves it btu in a cap world not so much.
Paying Suzuki the salary you think he will be worth is bad, so bridge deals and show me contracts until a player has a breakout year and then you pay him for what he did and what you hope he will continue to do?
Damn chalice of tabarnacle - braidan
Location: Let the creamy goaltending season begin! Joined: 08.31.2014
Jul 27 @ 9:54 AM ET
woah, thanks for the complete answer.
it seems complete but at the same time it doesn't really tell us what exactly is this "model" he's using. also I find the phrasing "measuring the certainty that a player will perform above his cap hit" sounds dubious, there can't be any certainty to projecting these numbers, especially when what the player has already done isn't accounted for. - Pat1993
Like I said, Suzuki's contract is future proofed, so that when he reaches his full potential the value of the contract will be extremely good.
The fundamental problem/failure with this "analysis" is that there is an expectation of status quo in Suzuki's performance... as if there is no potential growth in production.
Right now, I agree, he is not a $7.9M player. Next year, can't say he won't be.
