This miss on Cole Sillinger for sure can't be seen as anything but a failure no matter what Pierre Dorion says in the media. I get that is was a rough draft and it was tough to get a good look at any of the guys but how do you not grab Sillinger who can do anything Boucher could do and then score as well.

I'm still baffled at what the Ottawa team was thinking. The pressure they have put on Boucher is only going to hurt the kids potential as well not help him get there. This is what does not seem to be considered by taking massive reaches at the draft table in round 1.

You've taken a potential B student and told him he now needs to be an A student. That is the expectation. Now because the student can't risk showing that he only has the potential to hit B at max and be considered a failure for it he will almost intentionally only work for C or not work at all because it is better psychologically to have people value the potential you could have been rather than be disappointed in the success that was the peak of your potential.

Boucher was always going to be a half decent prospect taken in the 2nd or early 3rd round that would be great depth addition for the 3rd or 4th lines adding grit to a team. Drafting him high enough to be a 1st or 2nd line potential player is likely crushing his spirit especially with the media attention around the reach by Ottawa and Ottawa's open faith in him in the media.

I find it very telling that he almost immediately after being drafted he fails to live up to even reasonable expectations for a player of his caliber by struggling at Boston U where they highly value players like him.
- TDBSenatoR

Great analogy and great post. Lets hope he gets a full year of junior with the 67s and plays at the WJ tourney in December.

unless they bridge Stutzle, they cannot keep DeBrincat, OTT does not have the room for 9M Cat and a 8+M Stu
- Mithos

It would be very tight. Perhaps too tight.

We need to assume they will have found a way to drop around $14m in salaries (Zaitsev, Hamonic, Talbot, Holden, Watson). But, we cannot forget they will still have $5m in dead cap space (Ryan, Murray, White and Delzotto) (although White is actually an $875K cap credit next year).

So, your top 13 players will be $74m if you assume the existing contracts plus the addition of Chychrun ($4.6m) plus contract increases for Zub ($5.0m), Formenton ($3.0m), Pinto ($3.0m) as well as DeBrincat ($9.0m) and Stutzle $8.0m).

Based on $83.5 cap minus $5.0m dead cap and $74m (top 13 players): The math suggests the Sens would have about $4.5m. remaining to fill an additional 10 roster spots. Best guess, the Sens will need to find around $6m more in contract savings for next year. I assume they will move one of the bigs.

It would be very tight. Perhaps too tight.

We need to assume they will have found a way to drop around $14m in salaries (Zaitsev, Hamonic, Talbot, Holden, Watson). But, we cannot forget they will still have $5m in dead cap space (Ryan, Murray, White and Delzotto) (although White is actually an $875K cap credit next year).

So, your top 13 players will be $74m if you assume the existing contracts plus the addition of Chychrun ($4.6m) plus contract increases for Zub ($5.0m), Formenton ($3.0m), Pinto ($3.0m) as well as DeBrincat ($9.0m) and Stutzle $8.0m).

Based on $83.5 cap minus $5.0m dead cap and $74m (top 13 players): The math suggests the Sens would have about $4.5m. remaining to fill an additional 10 roster spots. Best guess, the Sens will need to find around $6m more in contract savings for next year. I assume they will move one of the bigs.
- spatso

I would assume Formenton moves in a deal for JC and Crouse but Crouse would need that money, so it is a wash. I can't see Pinto getting that much unless he has a monster year.

But that nitpicking aside, I see what you are saying.

The problem becomes If Debrinicat comes close to matching his previous goal totals. At that point, he would want (and get) $9.5 at least.

It's doable if the 4th line and bottom pairing D are all on ELC or less than $1.5 million. And Soogard steps up to become the backup.

And...and if....and more ifs...

Let's just see how camp goes first or if they get off to another slow start 😒

I would assume Formenton moves in a deal for JC and Crouse but Crouse would need that money, so it is a wash. I can't see Pinto getting that much unless he has a monster year.

But that nitpicking aside, I see what you are saying.

The problem becomes If Debrinicat comes close to matching his previous goal totals. At that point, he would want (and get) $9.5 at least.

It's doable if the 4th line and bottom pairing D are all on ELC or less than $1.5 million. And Soogard steps up to become the backup.

And...and if....and more ifs...

Let's just see how camp goes first or if they get off to another slow start 😒
- GrimmdaGoalie

Good posts. Lots of ifs heading into the 2023/2024 season without even playing the 2022/2023 season. Easy to assume that Stu and Debrincat have career years and demand top dollar. Not a lot of people have assumed average 55-65 point years or lower that could create some cheaper/shorter contracts. Also, easy to assume the group of players today will be the group of players in 2022/2023. I don’t recall too many teams staying status quo for multiple seasons, especially in a cap world. This team right now also has almost 6.5 mill tied up in goaltenders for this season that can also be shook around a bit.

It would be very tight. Perhaps too tight.

We need to assume they will have found a way to drop around $14m in salaries (Zaitsev, Hamonic, Talbot, Holden, Watson). But, we cannot forget they will still have $5m in dead cap space (Ryan, Murray, White and Delzotto) (although White is actually an $875K cap credit next year).

So, your top 13 players will be $74m if you assume the existing contracts plus the addition of Chychrun ($4.6m) plus contract increases for Zub ($5.0m), Formenton ($3.0m), Pinto ($3.0m) as well as DeBrincat ($9.0m) and Stutzle $8.0m).

Based on $83.5 cap minus $5.0m dead cap and $74m (top 13 players): The math suggests the Sens would have about $4.5m. remaining to fill an additional 10 roster spots. Best guess, the Sens will need to find around $6m more in contract savings for next year. I assume they will move one of the bigs.
- spatso

I have to respectfully disagree. If DeBrincat works out, and can sustain anything close to a 30G/80Pts pace, they should make sure he's retained as part of the offensive core of the group, even if it's in the $8M-$9M range... and I don't mean at the expense of one of the other high-end players on the team. The Senators are fast-approaching the situation where they can't just keep handing out 6yr+ RFA extensions to everyone on the roster, especially if they're still paying out $5M in dead cap weight over the next 2yrs. Certain players may need longer-term contract to keep them in play, but players coming right out of the ELC aren't in that situation.

So rather than just assume they need to give Stutzle $8Mx8yrs next season... why not just give him something like a $5Mx2yr RFA bridge deal? By the time it expires, they won't be carrying anything close to the same dead cap $$$, Giroux's $6.5M AAV will be coming off the books, and the cap may even have gone up. Do the same thing with Sanderson, and you create the ability to retain both Chychrun/Zub over the next 3yrs. It's exactly what Tampa Bay had to do with players like Kucherov ($4.8Mx3yrs), Point ($6.7Mx3yrs), Cirelli ($4.8Mx3yrs), Sergachev ($4.8Mx3yrs), and Vasilevsky ($3.5Mx3yrs), and where they should be going before they even think about having to trade away a major name from this roster.

I have to respectfully disagree. If DeBrincat works out, and can sustain anything close to a 30G/80Pts pace, they should make sure he's retained as part of the offensive core of the group, even if it's in the $8M-$9M range... and I don't mean at the expense of one of the other high-end players on the team. The Senators are fast-approaching the situation where they can't just keep handing out 6yr+ RFA extensions to everyone on the roster, especially if they're still paying out $5M in dead cap weight over the next 2yrs. Certain players may need longer-term contract to keep them in play, but players coming right out of the ELC aren't in that situation.

So rather than just assume they need to give Stutzle $8Mx8yrs next season... why not just give him something like a $5Mx2yr RFA bridge deal? By the time it expires, they won't be carrying anything close to the same dead cap $$$, Giroux's $6.5M AAV will be coming off the books, and the cap may even have gone up. Do the same thing with Sanderson, and you create the ability to retain both Chychrun/Zub over the next 3yrs. It's exactly what Tampa Bay had to do with players like Kucherov ($4.8Mx3yrs), Point ($6.7Mx3yrs), Cirelli ($4.8Mx3yrs), Sergachev ($4.8Mx3yrs), and Vasilevsky ($3.5Mx3yrs), and where they should be going before they even think about having to trade away a major name from this roster.
- khawk

I can't disagree and hope you are right.

This is a league that is more and more defined by their bigs. It is also how the league wants to market itself... around the star players. So, it is not surprising that salaries get structured around those bigs. Both the Leafs and Tampa pay out over 60% of the cap on their top 6 contracts. Sens are paying their top 6 salaries 50% ($42m) of cap. But salary #6 for the Sens $5m and is called Dead Cap.

Theoretically the Sens will be able to pay their top 6 a combined total of $48m. (6 contracts averaging $8m each). They can hold the team together by ruthlessly cutting out underperforming salary.

They are in great shape this year. They need to transition through next year (difficult) and after that they should be in great cap position..

The longer dorion didles with his thumbs up his ass, the harder and more costly it will be to dump Zeitsev and or acquire Chychrun, teams who OTT could trade zeitsev too are not going keep a hole in their line up forever....

The longer dorion didles with his thumbs up his ass, the harder and more costly it will be to dump Zeitsev and or acquire Chychrun, teams who OTT could trade zeitsev too are not going keep a hole in their line up forever....
- Mithos

What if the current asking price is simply too much? Should he hold or over pay?

I have to respectfully disagree. If DeBrincat works out, and can sustain anything close to a 30G/80Pts pace, they should make sure he's retained as part of the offensive core of the group, even if it's in the $8M-$9M range... and I don't mean at the expense of one of the other high-end players on the team. The Senators are fast-approaching the situation where they can't just keep handing out 6yr+ RFA extensions to everyone on the roster, especially if they're still paying out $5M in dead cap weight over the next 2yrs. Certain players may need longer-term contract to keep them in play, but players coming right out of the ELC aren't in that situation.

So rather than just assume they need to give Stutzle $8Mx8yrs next season... why not just give him something like a $5Mx2yr RFA bridge deal? By the time it expires, they won't be carrying anything close to the same dead cap $$$, Giroux's $6.5M AAV will be coming off the books, and the cap may even have gone up. Do the same thing with Sanderson, and you create the ability to retain both Chychrun/Zub over the next 3yrs. It's exactly what Tampa Bay had to do with players like Kucherov ($4.8Mx3yrs), Point ($6.7Mx3yrs), Cirelli ($4.8Mx3yrs), Sergachev ($4.8Mx3yrs), and Vasilevsky ($3.5Mx3yrs), and where they should be going before they even think about having to trade away a major name from this roster.
- khawk

Huberdeau gets 8 years 10.5AAV, wow! When you see guys like this getting that kind of money....at his age....

But I beyond agree with you, you need some bridge deals......they cant keep giving out 8 year deals.....Stutzle, DeBrincat, Sanderson, Pinto.....I would hope 3 of these guys get bridge deals.

Makes you wonder what will happen now with the defense.....Monahan comes off the books next summer.......

The longer dorion didles with his thumbs up his ass, the harder and more costly it will be to dump Zeitsev and or acquire Chychrun, teams who OTT could trade zeitsev too are not going keep a hole in their line up forever....
- Mithos

If you calculate the free cap space for each NHL team you will see that most teams simply do not have the cap space to do deals where they are required to add significant salary. Teams that do have cap space are in rebuilding mode. They all want picks and prospects and draft position when they think about taking on hard to move contracts.

Dorion will pay the price to move Zaitsev and he will add a quality Dman.

The longer he waits the better the chance he get a very good deal.

I would imagine the price on Tanev (perhaps Weeger) has dropped a little as of this morning.

Vegas also needs to make a move. I wonder if Theodore might be the guy.

Most of us would prefer Chychrun. I think (hope) that is the deal that gets done. But, you can be fairly certain that in this market the price is not going to go up from where it is today.

Huberdeau gets 8 years 10.5AAV, wow! When you see guys like this getting that kind of money....at his age....

But I beyond agree with you, you need some bridge deals......they cant keep giving out 8 year deals.....Stutzle, DeBrincat, Sanderson, Pinto.....I would hope 3 of these guys get bridge deals.
- Kevin Francis

I feel the club set a precedent with the Norris contract. While it was easy to see the value in signing Brady and Chabot long term, Norris was a little more eyebrow raising. Should Stu and Debrincat have strong years, hard to see them not demanding long term deals. However, at some point, players have to determine if they want to win or get a few more guaranteed bucks.

Uncharted waters for Sens fans and the club alike. It feels weird but also exciting to have these types of conversations. This season should be better and hopefully Dorion is able to insulate the defense one way or another.

I feel the club set a precedent with the Norris contract. While it was easy to see the value in signing Brady and Chabot long term, Norris was a little more eyebrow raising. Should Stu and Debrincat have strong years, hard to see them not demanding long term deals. However, at some point, players have to determine if they want to win or get a few more guaranteed bucks.

Uncharted waters for Sens fans and the club alike. It feels weird but also exciting to have these types of conversations. This season should be better and hopefully Dorion is able to insulate the defense one way or another.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

The cap will probably be in the range of $96m three years from now once the escrow clawback has been completed (no guarantee). A really responible model would see teams putting $48m into their top 6 players (average salary of $8m x 6).

But it will be hard to hold that line when teams like the Leafs are already paying $33m to their top 3 with Matthews looking to begin negotiations on a new deal starting as early as next summer.

So, I agree with everything you are saying. But there is also a voice telling me that the new $8m contracts of today are replacing the old $6m contracts from a year ago.

The money will be okay if Norris is a #1 NHL centre? Is Norris a long term top 6 fit for the Sens? If he scores 35 again this year, it will be quickly seen as a good contract.

I feel the club set a precedent with the Norris contract. While it was easy to see the value in signing Brady and Chabot long term, Norris was a little more eyebrow raising. Should Stu and Debrincat have strong years, hard to see them not demanding long term deals. However, at some point, players have to determine if they want to win or get a few more guaranteed bucks.

Uncharted waters for Sens fans and the club alike. It feels weird but also exciting to have these types of conversations. This season should be better and hopefully Dorion is able to insulate the defense one way or another.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

Young players don't usually want term, teams want term for young players. Players want contracts that get them to unrestricted free agency as soon as possible typically, at least if they are looking for a payday.

Also if a player demands something that automatically puts the team in a position to lower the pay for that demand and thus the cap hit. I don't think Debrincat even if he has a good year will be demanding to stay in Ottawa for 8 years. Hope he does though if he does put up 30-40 goals as expected. But NHl players have a weird trait of wanting to "go back home" when they are UFA.

Huberdeau gets 8 years 10.5AAV, wow! When you see guys like this getting that kind of money....at his age....

But I beyond agree with you, you need some bridge deals......they cant keep giving out 8 year deals.....Stutzle, DeBrincat, Sanderson, Pinto.....I would hope 3 of these guys get bridge deals.
- Kevin Francis

Doesn't bode well for the Sens signing Debrinicat for under $9.5m, especially if he gets 30 to 40 goals this year. Younger the JH.

Good to see the flames keep the guy they got. Maybe paid $500-900k more AAV then they should have. We call that the Ottawa Tax here (see Norris, Josh)

Reminds me of when Chicago gave Jones that stupid contract and set the stage for more stupid contracts like Nurse for 9.25 million per year. Talk about ridiculous!

Now Calgary pulls that nonsense with Huberdeau setting the stage for who knows what. The Huberdeau contract is absurd even if the cap moves up in the next 3 or 4 years because of the term.

Reminds me of when Chicago gave Jones that stupid contract and set the stage for more stupid contracts like Nurse for 9.25 million per year. Talk about ridiculous!

Now Calgary pulls that nonsense with Huberdeau setting the stage for who knows what. The Huberdeau contract is absurd even if the cap moves up in the next 3 or 4 years because of the term.
- Whatisavailable

I agree. But there is an exception.

This model works if Calgary decides to go all in over the next 5 years and than blow it up and begin a rebuild. Once the rebuild begins Calgary becomes Chicago 2.0. The Huberdeau contract helps to get you to the cap floor as you crash and burn everything else..

Love WJC.

I have always thought a premium should be calculated for players who have late birth dates in any draft year. July and August picks are full year and an entire competitive season younger than some of the older kids in the draft. World juniors is where the kids with late birthdays often get noticed by fans. Sens picks who will play (or could be eligible to) play at WJC this month.

Kleven Jan 2002
Stutzle Jan 2002
Sanderson July 2002
Grieg Aug 2002
Merilainen Aug 2002
Jarventie Aug 2002
Ostapchuck May 2003
Hamara March 2004

Yotes signed Crouse to 4.3m per for 5 years

Yotes signed Crouse to 4.3m per for 5 years
- Mithos

Big man. Good skater. Fair contract.

sign and trade?

Big man. Good skater. Fair contract.
- spatso

Is that a fair contract for a guy who has only put up 56 goals in 6 seasons? Further 110 points in 346 games. Colin white had better per game production with similar cap hit and he was deemed worthy of a buyout.

Is that a fair contract for a guy who has only put up 56 goals in 6 seasons? Further 110 points in 346 games. Colin white had better per game production with similar cap hit and he was deemed worthy of a buyout.
- TDBSenatoR

Yeah this is an overpay, especially considering Crouse got top line minutes (albeit on a caricature of a team). Remains to be seen, but this is paying for untapped potential the player might not actually have. Kind of like the deal for Alex Iafallo last year. Compare this to the Mason Marchment deal vis a vis value for production.

Is that a fair contract for a guy who has only put up 56 goals in 6 seasons? Further 110 points in 346 games. Colin white had better per game production with similar cap hit and he was deemed worthy of a buyout.
- TDBSenatoR

If he plays first line minutes and if he scores 20 goals, it is a fair contract.

If he plays first line minutes and if he scores 20 goals, it is a fair contract.
- spatso

He's in no way, shape, or form a first-line NHL player. And if he continues to play just 17min/GP (he's only played >15min/GP once in his career), and needs a 15% shooting % to reach 20G (he was a career 9% until last year), then I'm not sure it's really such a fair contract. Conversely, it's a near-perfect example of the kind of over-payment for mediocrity that Dorion needs to stay the hell away from.