Mike Augello: Leafs Top-40 Prospect List - #19

- TheMussel

From the last blog:

It's not a bad trade to be honest, but it is a slight overpay
- PatC80

We're $1.5m over right now - with 14F, 6D and 2G. So you could argue that with a roster size of 21, you're $740k over by dropping Clifford.

Garland is pesky and he's fine - but he makes $5m for 4 more years, including this one. If Vancouver ate 30% of his salary, that would reduce his salary to what Kerfoot is making. Which is still more than we have.

Now is Sandin enough of a carrot to entice Vancouver to even enter into that conversation? He could be. He's a solid young defensive with years of control and distinct upside.

Right now Vancouver is $2.5m over the cap, but $3.5m will be placed on LTIR, because it looks like Michael Ferland's career may be over. If they made this trade, they could technically afford it with $1m to spare this year, but that's not enough to sign Sandin. Nor would carrying $1.5m in retained salary for 3 additional years be preferrable considering the cap mess that they were left by Benning.

The other question, and it's a very valid one, is where is Vancouver right now? What they do with JT Miller will give an idea of what they think of this team. Are they rebuilding ore retooling? Sandin is probably too old for a rebuild.

From the last blog:




We're $1.5m over right now - with 14F, 6D and 2G. So you could argue that with a roster size of 21, you're $740k over by dropping Clifford.

Garland is pesky and he's fine - but he makes $5m for 4 more years, including this one. If Vancouver ate 30% of his salary, that would reduce his salary to what Kerfoot is making. Which is still more than we have.

Now is Sandin enough of a carrot to entice Vancouver to even enter into that conversation? He could be. He's a solid young defensive with years of control and distinct upside.

Right now Vancouver is $2.5m over the cap, but $3.5m will be placed on LTIR, because it looks like Michael Ferland's career may be over. If they made this trade, they could technically afford it with $1m to spare this year, but that's not enough to sign Sandin. Nor would carrying $1.5m in retained salary for 3 additional years be preferrable considering the cap mess that they were left by Benning.

The other question, and it's a very valid one, is where is Vancouver right now? What they do with JT Miller will give an idea of what they think of this team. Are they rebuilding ore retooling? Sandin is probably too old for a rebuild.
- Monkeypunk

Garland may be 2 years younger but he's also smaller...by 15 - 20 pounds.
Not sure I would want to waste the trade of sandin on vancouver retaining salary.
Seems like a big overpay.

From the last blog:




We're $1.5m over right now - with 14F, 6D and 2G. So you could argue that with a roster size of 21, you're $740k over by dropping Clifford.

Garland is pesky and he's fine - but he makes $5m for 4 more years, including this one. If Vancouver ate 30% of his salary, that would reduce his salary to what Kerfoot is making. Which is still more than we have.

Now is Sandin enough of a carrot to entice Vancouver to even enter into that conversation? He could be. He's a solid young defensive with years of control and distinct upside.

Right now Vancouver is $2.5m over the cap, but $3.5m will be placed on LTIR, because it looks like Michael Ferland's career may be over. If they made this trade, they could technically afford it with $1m to spare this year, but that's not enough to sign Sandin. Nor would carrying $1.5m in retained salary for 3 additional years be preferrable considering the cap mess that they were left by Benning.

The other question, and it's a very valid one, is where is Vancouver right now? What they do with JT Miller will give an idea of what they think of this team. Are they rebuilding ore retooling? Sandin is probably too old for a rebuild.
- Monkeypunk

I agree with that. If they keep Miller, they likely keep Garland

From the last blog:




We're $1.5m over right now - with 14F, 6D and 2G. So you could argue that with a roster size of 21, you're $740k over by dropping Clifford.

Garland is pesky and he's fine - but he makes $5m for 4 more years, including this one. If Vancouver ate 30% of his salary, that would reduce his salary to what Kerfoot is making. Which is still more than we have.

Now is Sandin enough of a carrot to entice Vancouver to even enter into that conversation? He could be. He's a solid young defensive with years of control and distinct upside.

Right now Vancouver is $2.5m over the cap, but $3.5m will be placed on LTIR, because it looks like Michael Ferland's career may be over. If they made this trade, they could technically afford it with $1m to spare this year, but that's not enough to sign Sandin. Nor would carrying $1.5m in retained salary for 3 additional years be preferrable considering the cap mess that they were left by Benning.

The other question, and it's a very valid one, is where is Vancouver right now? What they do with JT Miller will give an idea of what they think of this team. Are they rebuilding ore retooling? Sandin is probably too old for a rebuild.
- Monkeypunk

Leafs can’t trade Kerfoot for someone who makes more or even the same as he does. Getting right to the cap doesn’t leave them any room to call guys up in case of injuries. With the signings they made this summer the only guy I can see making the team who doesn’t need to clear waivers is Robertson. Any Kerfoot/Holl trades have to leave them some in-year room.

Leafs can’t trade Kerfoot for someone who makes more or even the same as he does. Getting right to the cap doesn’t leave them any room to call guys up in case of injuries. With the signings they made this summer the only guy I can see making the team who doesn’t need to clear waivers is Robertson. Any Kerfoot/Holl trades have to leave them some in-year room.
- Canada Cup

Yep

Leafs can’t trade Kerfoot for someone who makes more or even the same as he does. Getting right to the cap doesn’t leave them any room to call guys up in case of injuries. With the signings they made this summer the only guy I can see making the team who doesn’t need to clear waivers is Robertson. Any Kerfoot/Holl trades have to leave them some in-year room.
- Canada Cup

Other than that's never impacted their cap planning in the past. IE. - carry 21 and sit tight at the cap has been their M.O. for a handful of years.

Subject to something enticing coming along I'm still expecting Holl to be dealt, Sandin to be re-upped and two forwards on that capfriendly list (Cliffy and Simmonds?) to be waived. That puts them at that cap with 21 guys on the flight to Montreal.

It'll change if there's something there that makes them better but at this point they don't HAVE to do anything other than wait out Sandin and move Holl if/when ready.

Mike's #1 fan
- islansjet

Super enlightening.

Yawn ...

Leafs can’t trade Kerfoot for someone who makes more or even the same as he does. Getting right to the cap doesn’t leave them any room to call guys up in case of injuries. With the signings they made this summer the only guy I can see making the team who doesn’t need to clear waivers is Robertson. Any Kerfoot/Holl trades have to leave them some in-year room.
- Canada Cup

That's kind of what I was saying - even if we get the guy at 30% retained, we're still over the cap. But the second part of any transaction is would the other team even do it? Kerfoot might resign there since he's from Vancouver, and he likely would resign cheaper than Garland, but they have their own cap issues. Retaining long-term salary when you already have cap issues is not a good idea. We saw that here - Kessel's $1.2m probably cost us the ability to keep a Kapanen or Brown.

I mean if we pretend that they trade both Kerfoot and Holl, there's $5.5m in space created - leaving around $4.7m if we demote Clifford and replace him with a late UFA signing (like Rodrigues, or someone). Using the Romanov deal, maybe they go an extra year and get Sandin for 3 years @2.5m or something - but the concern to me is that he's still a left-side D.

It's still a fluid situation that may see Sandin moved because of where he is in the depth chart compared to where he wants to be.

Other than that's never impacted their cap planning in the past. IE. - carry 21 and sit tight at the cap has been their M.O. for a handful of years.

Subject to something enticing coming along I'm still expecting Holl to be dealt, Sandin to be re-upped and two forwards on that capfriendly list (Cliffy and Simmonds?) to be waived. That puts them at that cap with 21 guys on the flight to Montreal.

It'll change if there's something there that makes them better but at this point they don't HAVE to do anything other than wait out Sandin and move Holl if/when ready.
- The Law

The really risky part there is that Sandin has been bad on the right side. Last year, he played on the right side with Brodie for 33 minutes and was -1; he played with Muzzin for 26 minutes and was -3; he played with Rielly for 49 minutes and was -3; his xG% was negative as well, so it wasn't just bad luck.

We're already rolling the dice on the netminders. Maybe we should be more stable on the defensive side.

Until you get to at least #10 on the top prospect list do any of these players on any team have a slim chance of making their teams NHL roster. Its only that by going to #40 and trying to justify and build up their teams picks makes it only more frustrating for their fan base when these players never make it to the NHL. Look at any other teams top 40 and it will be the same.
- islansjet

He's a blogger making daily blogs. Lay off his choice of topic. If it bothers you so much, you can just go away.

Mike's #1 blogger fan right here.
- islansjet

It's not a surprise. But let's be somewhat realistic - what would you do if you were writing blogs every day over the summer when nothing is happening? I'd probably have some nerd breakdowns of different stats and different looks at different players who are on the roster - but it would very likely be prepared in June so I could slack off over the summer and go to some cottages or whatever, and only blog when something actually happens.

So this is summer prep and we're just here to blab about whatever. There are guys in ranges 19-40 that are likely in the top-15 for what it's worth, and probably have an outside shot at the NHL, so I don't think people would even agree with the sequence.

Other than that's never impacted their cap planning in the past. IE. - carry 21 and sit tight at the cap has been their M.O. for a handful of years.

Subject to something enticing coming along I'm still expecting Holl to be dealt, Sandin to be re-upped and two forwards on that capfriendly list (Cliffy and Simmonds?) to be waived. That puts them at that cap with 21 guys on the flight to Montreal.

It'll change if there's something there that makes them better but at this point they don't HAVE to do anything other than wait out Sandin and move Holl if/when ready.
- The Law

The only difference is that previously they had Sandin or Lilli as waiver exempt safety valves to move down to take some $s off the cap in case of the need to call someone up for a few games. Right now the only possible waiver exempt guy who might be in the team is Robertson. They need some wriggle room. My point is that any trade has to give them a little breathing space

It's not a surprise. But let's be somewhat realistic - what would you do if you were writing blogs every day over the summer when nothing is happening? I'd probably have some nerd breakdowns of different stats and different looks at different players who are on the roster - but it would very likely be prepared in June so I could slack off over the summer and go to some cottages or whatever, and only blog when something actually happens.

So this is summer prep and we're just here to blab about whatever. There are guys in ranges 19-40 that are likely in the top-15 for what it's worth, and probably have an outside shot at the NHL, so I don't think people would even agree with the sequence.
- Monkeypunk

Also...that takes some work.

Also...that takes some work.
- AdamFrench

Admittedly I'm the type of person who finds ways to slack off in my own way. As I tell my kids, you can be lazy as long as you put the work in to do it. If my boss asks me for something in 4 days and I decide to do it today - I'm buying myself 3 days of slack. There might be other things between now and then that come up, but insofar as as project planning goes, I'm at least partially occupied by a completed task. Put in 1 or 2 days of work and buy yourself 40!

That's kind of what I was saying - even if we get the guy at 30% retained, we're still over the cap. But the second part of any transaction is would the other team even do it? Kerfoot might resign there since he's from Vancouver, and he likely would resign cheaper than Garland, but they have their own cap issues. Retaining long-term salary when you already have cap issues is not a good idea. We saw that here - Kessel's $1.2m probably cost us the ability to keep a Kapanen or Brown.

I mean if we pretend that they trade both Kerfoot and Holl, there's $5.5m in space created - leaving around $4.7m if we demote Clifford and replace him with a late UFA signing (like Rodrigues, or someone). Using the Romanov deal, maybe they go an extra year and get Sandin for 3 years @2.5m or something - but the concern to me is that he's still a left-side D.

It's still a fluid situation that may see Sandin moved because of where he is in the depth chart compared to where he wants to be.
- Monkeypunk

If the Canucks are going to move out players like Miller, then they will have cap space..It all depends on what their plan is, but if re-tooling/re-stocking is the plan, they will have the cap space necessary

Admittedly I'm the type of person who finds ways to slack off in my own way. As I tell my kids, you can be lazy as long as you put the work in to do it. If my boss asks me for something in 4 days and I decide to do it today - I'm buying myself 3 days of slack. There might be other things between now and then that come up, but insofar as as project planning goes, I'm at least partially occupied by a completed task. Put in 1 or 2 days of work and buy yourself 40!
- Monkeypunk

A man after my own heart

Admittedly I'm the type of person who finds ways to slack off in my own way. As I tell my kids, you can be lazy as long as you put the work in to do it. If my boss asks me for something in 4 days and I decide to do it today - I'm buying myself 3 days of slack. There might be other things between now and then that come up, but insofar as as project planning goes, I'm at least partially occupied by a completed task. Put in 1 or 2 days of work and buy yourself 40!
- Monkeypunk

I won't even look at it until the third day.

Yeah, I know.

Just in case you haven't had enough stoopid today:

https://twitter.com/spitt...tatus/1562455095316385797

Warning: cuss words.

Just in case you haven't had enough stoopid today:

https://twitter.com/spitt...tatus/1562455095316385797

Warning: cuss words.
- Atomic Wedgie

Hur hur hur, stooopad laffs fans think they gettin Kannnnnnnne

Just in case you haven't had enough stoopid today:

https://twitter.com/spitt...tatus/1562455095316385797

Warning: cuss words.
- Atomic Wedgie

Who am I to argue with a person that calls themselves "Biznasty"?

Hur hur hur, stooopad laffs fans think they gettin Kannnnnnnne
- AdamFrench

I do believe we are getting an aging US RW with multiple cup rings and an ungodly knack for scoring goals...

Who am I to argue with a person that calls themselves "Biznasty"?
- Monkeypunk

You are so right, Monkmalicious.