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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Leafs Top-40 Prospect List - #19
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Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Aug 25 @ 9:25 AM ET
he was more of a setup man (42A) than a goal scorer that we once knew.
- dmnted


I was looking at Kessel's goals in 2020 (when he had 20), and last year (8). In some ways there's a predictability behind this change in his game. When he played here, he was fast and dynamic - but he was cheating on the puck a LOT. He would fly the zone at the drop of a hat, and sometimes barely even enter the zone.

As he has gotten older, he isn't as fast - especially as more players around him become faster as well. So he's losing a step or two and the game itself is generally faster - it has taken away his former advantage. A lot of the goals he was scoring in Arizona were deflections, power play goals, and even some bizarre weak goals went in for him. He has always been an underrated passer - but his game is no longer zone entry, breakaways or his shot off the rush - which means this guy is no longer the guy we knew at all.

Would, as an upset Wedgie has declared, he have been a good signing for us? I honestly don't think so. He's so bad at defense he just doesn't help, and we need a pivot on 2LW who can provide some defensive awareness and speed with Tavares and Nylander.
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Macrodata Refinement , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Aug 25 @ 9:41 AM ET
No cap.
- Fakepartofme

No point. Where do you play him?
fifty__missions
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Burkie's Rented Barn, ON
Joined: 02.12.2013

Aug 25 @ 9:42 AM ET
Kessel at $1.5M is a franking steal.

Dubas franked up by not signing him.

Frank.

- Atomic Wedgie

Where in the cap structure is he able to fit that contract though?
Adam French
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Isn't Cooley 5"11? You know who else is 5"11? Sydney Crosby. - Scabeh
Joined: 04.06.2011

Aug 25 @ 9:52 AM ET
I was looking at Kessel's goals in 2020 (when he had 20), and last year (8). In some ways there's a predictability behind this change in his game. When he played here, he was fast and dynamic - but he was cheating on the puck a LOT. He would fly the zone at the drop of a hat, and sometimes barely even enter the zone.

As he has gotten older, he isn't as fast - especially as more players around him become faster as well. So he's losing a step or two and the game itself is generally faster - it has taken away his former advantage. A lot of the goals he was scoring in Arizona were deflections, power play goals, and even some bizarre weak goals went in for him. He has always been an underrated passer - but his game is no longer zone entry, breakaways or his shot off the rush - which means this guy is no longer the guy we knew at all.

Would, as an upset Wedgie has declared, he have been a good signing for us? I honestly don't think so. He's so bad at defense he just doesn't help, and we need a pivot on 2LW who can provide some defensive awareness and speed with Tavares and Nylander.

- Monkeypunk

I think his lack of scoring is because he was so sunburned that he couldn't see well.



Also he'll never shoot a 4.6% again. He's not a 30 goal man by any means, but if he doesn't score 15-20 this year I would be shocked.
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Macrodata Refinement , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Aug 25 @ 10:01 AM ET
Where in the cap structure is he able to fit that contract though?
- fifty__missions

I think it’s perfect he gets signed by a team without a goalie
dozerD10
Anaheim Ducks
Location: long beach, CA
Joined: 01.29.2014

Aug 25 @ 10:02 AM ET
I was looking at Kessel's goals in 2020 (when he had 20), and last year (8). In some ways there's a predictability behind this change in his game. When he played here, he was fast and dynamic - but he was cheating on the puck a LOT. He would fly the zone at the drop of a hat, and sometimes barely even enter the zone.

As he has gotten older, he isn't as fast - especially as more players around him become faster as well. So he's losing a step or two and the game itself is generally faster - it has taken away his former advantage. A lot of the goals he was scoring in Arizona were deflections, power play goals, and even some bizarre weak goals went in for him. He has always been an underrated passer - but his game is no longer zone entry, breakaways or his shot off the rush - which means this guy is no longer the guy we knew at all.

Would, as an upset Wedgie has declared, he have been a good signing for us? I honestly don't think so. He's so bad at defense he just doesn't help, and we need a pivot on 2LW who can provide some defensive awareness and speed with Tavares and Nylander.

- Monkeypunk



This is a good point as well for Kaner.... That has been overlooked... Phildo has nothing on Kaner in this regard.
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Macrodata Refinement , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Aug 25 @ 10:05 AM ET
This is a good point as well for Kaner.... That has been overlooked... Phildo has nothing on Kaner in this regard.

- dozerD10

Kane is this week’s unicorn
fifty__missions
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Burkie's Rented Barn, ON
Joined: 02.12.2013

Aug 25 @ 10:11 AM ET
I think it’s perfect he gets signed by a team without a goalie
- Canada Cup

😂
Cush29
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Who Owzzzzz da' Chiefs?, ON
Joined: 12.22.2014

Aug 25 @ 10:25 AM ET
refs have the power to change your posts, I usually thank Cush for all the positive things I consistently say about the Leafs. As a Habs fan it's hard for me to admint but deep deep down inside I really do love the Leafs and have to go into my basement and pump my fist in the air whilst whispering a "Go Leafs Go" chant before bed each and every night
- Symba007


Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Aug 25 @ 10:28 AM ET
I think his lack of scoring is because he was so sunburned that he couldn't see well.



Also he'll never shoot a 4.6% again. He's not a 30 goal man by any means, but if he doesn't score 15-20 this year I would be shocked.

- AdamFrench


If you watch the goals he scored from 2020-21 (there are highlight packs on YouTube), I'd say there are about 5 or 6 classic Kessel goals where he gets room and snipes. 2 or 3 were on the power play where someone else made the room for him - but still. One of them was a laser from about 6 feet inside the blue line that went bar down - but those were really rare. Do I think he shoots better than 4.6%? Yes. Not as high as the 17% he shot the year before. No one wanted to put together a package of his 2021-22 goals, so you have to look at the games individually (there are only 8 of them!), but it's obvious he still has his shot - he just gets less opportunity and is in less opportune places to use it.

How much of this is influenced by Arizona not being good and not having a lot to play for? I don't know and that's a key factor I think. His numbers look down. His chances are down. His play looks unenthusiastic - which could be a telling factor, right? That said, his age is getting up there and it's harder to find that higher level of play.

One of the things to note is that his shots/game are significantly lower. In Toronto he averaged 4/game. In Pittsburgh it was 3/game. In Boston, at the start of his career, it was 2.75 game. In his last 3 years in Arizona it was 2/game. From what I've seen the reduction in shots comes from less opportunity to take them. He has also shifted his game a bit - he scored a number of those 20 goals two years ago from the edges of the paint, and had a number of deflection goals.

Looking at 34 year old Kessel on Vegas, I'm guessing he'll slot in on Line 2 with Stephenson and Stone - basically replacing Pacioretty. I still think he gets about 170-200 shots, and at 8% shooting, pots 14-16 goals.
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Aug 25 @ 10:35 AM ET
This is a good point as well for Kaner.... That has been overlooked... Phildo has nothing on Kaner in this regard.

- dozerD10


You're right there.

The ability to fly the zone for Kane was provided by having some elite defense - the year he won the Hart, they had Seabrook, Keith and Hjalmarsson all still playing at a high level - and Crawford in net posting a .924%. You can afford to have some dynamic offensive players cheating on the puck.

Just two years later, when Keith was 35 and Seabrook was 33 and distinctly slower, and you're leaning on Gustafsson, it made it harder - the goalies were down to a below-league average .908%, and even though Kane put up career-best points, the style he played wasn't helping them enough.
TurdFergeson
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: On the road again
Joined: 01.04.2021

Aug 25 @ 10:51 AM ET
Kessel at $1.5M is a franking steal.

Dubas franked up by not signing him.

Frank.

- Atomic Wedgie


Not a Kessel fan. But at 1.5 I bet that turns out to be one of the best value signings of the year.
TurdFergeson
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: On the road again
Joined: 01.04.2021

Aug 25 @ 10:54 AM ET
I think it’s perfect he gets signed by a team without a goalie
- Canada Cup


You clearly have not watched Thompson. He was better than Lehner last year by a long shot and played well at the worlds too. He’s better than what the leafs have.
Scabeh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: The Slovakian Jagr, QC
Joined: 02.25.2007

Aug 25 @ 10:55 AM ET

- Cush29


Looks legit.
Symba007
Montreal Canadiens
Location: No, ON
Joined: 02.26.2007

Aug 25 @ 10:58 AM ET

- Cush29

BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Aug 25 @ 11:00 AM ET
You clearly have not watched Thompson. He was better than Lehner last year by a long shot and played well at the worlds too. He’s better than what the leafs have.
- TurdFergeson


Not sure I'd put a ton of faith into a guy with 20 career NHL appearances at 25 years old. But his AHL numbers are really good so who knows. Not like I'm not wrong all the time anyway.
Adam French
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Isn't Cooley 5"11? You know who else is 5"11? Sydney Crosby. - Scabeh
Joined: 04.06.2011

Aug 25 @ 11:00 AM ET
Not a Kessel fan. But at 1.5 I bet that turns out to be one of the best value signings of the year.
- TurdFergeson

It can't hurt at the very least.
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Aug 25 @ 11:01 AM ET
This is a good point as well for Kaner.... That has been overlooked... Phildo has nothing on Kaner in this regard.

- dozerD10


100%.

Dude doesn't play defense of any kind. He never makes it south of his own blue line.
Adam French
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Isn't Cooley 5"11? You know who else is 5"11? Sydney Crosby. - Scabeh
Joined: 04.06.2011

Aug 25 @ 11:02 AM ET
100%.

Dude doesn't play defense of any kind. He never makes it south of his own blue line.

- BINGO!

Put him with Stone who can't skate out of his own zone now and they'll be a perfect tandem.
TurdFergeson
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: On the road again
Joined: 01.04.2021

Aug 25 @ 11:03 AM ET
Not sure I'd put a ton of faith into a guy with 20 career NHL appearances at 25 years old. But his AHL numbers are really good so who knows. Not like I'm not wrong all the time anyway.
- BINGO!

What age did Shesterkin and Sorokin finally breakout?? Among many others.
Scabeh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: The Slovakian Jagr, QC
Joined: 02.25.2007

Aug 25 @ 11:05 AM ET
Put him with Stone who can't skate out of his own zone now and they'll be a perfect tandem.
- AdamFrench


Center them with Jack Eichel and you might have the ugliest trio of guys in the league.
Adam French
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Isn't Cooley 5"11? You know who else is 5"11? Sydney Crosby. - Scabeh
Joined: 04.06.2011

Aug 25 @ 11:05 AM ET
Center them with Jack Eichel and you might have the ugliest trio of guys in the league.
- Scabeh

Cush29
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Who Owzzzzz da' Chiefs?, ON
Joined: 12.22.2014

Aug 25 @ 11:07 AM ET
Looks legit.
- Scabeh


I know right? I have to wonder how long until you quote the post and add in a "that's exactly what I do every night too bro'"
Scabeh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: The Slovakian Jagr, QC
Joined: 02.25.2007

Aug 25 @ 11:12 AM ET
I know right? I have to wonder how long until you quote the post and add in a "that's exactly what I do every night too bro'"

- Cush29


Well I do have to root for someone to win the cup since according to some around here, the Habs rebuild will take at the very least 10 years.
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Aug 25 @ 11:14 AM ET
What age did Shesterkin and Sorokin finally breakout?? Among many others.
- TurdFergeson


They were both starters in the KHL at 19. Bit of a different situation than Thompson who was an undrafted player in the WHL at that age.

Thompson's career looks a lot more like Scott Darling's, which is not necessarily a bad thing! Darling was really good for his short time in Chicago! Just a lot harder to predict.

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