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Forums :: Blog World :: Zach Jarom: Why This Season is Worth Your Time
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LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Oct 12 @ 11:03 AM ET
I see Murphy staying. They need to get to the cap floor somehow.
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Oct 12 @ 11:41 AM ET
Let's try this again.

Best scenario for the Hawks in the 2023 draft.

Tampa Bay is a bubble team barely missing the playoffs and gets the #16 pick. They do not move up in the lottery.

Davidson somehow finagles the Dallas pick from the Rangers in a Kane trade. Maybe Kane waives for 3 contenders so there is a bidding war. Or maybe there are conditions on the trade such as Hawks get the Rangers own first unless the Rangers win the Cup. If so, then Hawks get the Dallas pick. NYR go all the way and Dallas misses the playoffs gets the 13th pick and also does not move up in the lottery.

Hawks make a draft day trade and pick up a 1st from a cap strapped team - Edmonton for example - to take on salary. Let's say that's pick #29.

Hawks earn a top 3 of their own due to their dismal play this season.

So Hawks have #2, #13, #16, #29 in next summer's draft. We can dream can't we?

- boilermaker100

Exhale.
Instamatic
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.22.2015

Oct 12 @ 12:29 PM ET
Sad to see Hagel in a Bolts uni, but still can't believe what we got for him.
- BetweenTheDots

Sad to see DeBrincat in a Sens uni, and I still can’t believe what little we got for him.
kmw4631
Location: CHICAGO
Joined: 02.27.2015

Oct 12 @ 1:11 PM ET
I see Murphy staying. They need to get to the cap floor somehow.
- LAHawk


I think if they can move murphy for something of value they would. mostly because they will not want his contract in the 3rd and 4th year of the deal. they can get to the cap floor by taking on bad contracts and overpaying players on 1 years deals. IMO they will actually be worse next year. with the cap only going up $1mil next year there are still teams that will need to move salary to keep younger players the are coming off ELC or RFA contracts.

in general so far I give KD a B.
I think the draft and free agency was solid, Dach, Hagel, stillman trade I think we got really good returns. Cat was no a great return but he stuck to the plan. lafferty for nylander was a good trade. I liked the AA, Johnson, blackwell, Domi signings. I do think we could have gotten a little more for taking on Mzarek salary.
we moved up 13 spots or so. Feel like that should have been a fisrt with a late round pick going back. it was 2 years at 3.8.
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Oct 12 @ 1:24 PM ET
I see Murphy staying. They need to get to the cap floor somehow.
- LAHawk

McCabe or Murphy imo will be moved either at the tdl or in the offseason.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Oct 12 @ 1:44 PM ET
McCabe or Murphy imo will be moved either at the tdl or in the offseason.
- Scott1977


Based on last nights game, the Kings need a LD desperately. They have only 2 left handed defenseman on the roster, and one of them is Alex Edler. The seventh defenseman is Brandt Clarke another righty. They sent Bjonfort down (he played last year as LD), but there was no room on the roster.
boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

Oct 12 @ 1:52 PM ET
McCabe or Murphy imo will be moved either at the tdl or in the offseason.
- Scott1977


Unfortunately Murphy can't stay healthy long enough to up his trade value.
boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

Oct 12 @ 1:53 PM ET
FWIW, quoting Ek from his blog today

However, the GM I talked to today, who is self-admittedly probably not going to be in on the Kane sweeps, said he talked to a contending team that had previously been told "not available" but last week was told to "call back next week. we are considering a slightly different course of action."
333inthe3rd
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 02.04.2015

Oct 12 @ 2:02 PM ET
Based on last nights game, the Kings need a LD desperately. They have only 2 left handed defenseman on the roster, and one of them is Alex Edler. The seventh defenseman is Brandt Clarke another righty. They sent Bjonfort down (he played last year as LD), but there was no room on the roster.
- LAHawk


The Kings only have $1.2 million in cap space. I'm sure they will be scouring waiver wires and calling up every team that has an RD sitting in the press box.
kmw4631
Location: CHICAGO
Joined: 02.27.2015

Oct 12 @ 2:10 PM ET
FWIW, quoting Ek from his blog today

However, the GM I talked to today, who is self-admittedly probably not going to be in on the Kane sweeps, said he talked to a contending team that had previously been told "not available" but last week was told to "call back next week. we are considering a slightly different course of action."

- boilermaker100


llets say we go 2-6-2 in our first 10 games and Kane says he is open to a trade to NYR. we would need a second team to retain. it would have to be something like Kakko reaves and 1st to the hawks for Kane 50% retained and we would need to find a team to retain another 50%. probably the best way to make it happen would be taking back a contract from a contending team that they need to move when they have someone coming off LTIR.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Oct 12 @ 2:14 PM ET
McCabe or Murphy imo will be moved either at the tdl or in the offseason.
- Scott1977


hopefully it's Murphy
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Oct 12 @ 2:17 PM ET
The Athletic did their crazy predictions for the 2022/2023 season, which was Kane getting hurt and not traded.

Darth’s Take: Reichel will not be in the Blackhawks organization at the end of the 2022/2023 season.

- DarthKane



When is the Hossa number retirement? I bet it happens after that but long before the deadline. I think for KD the best option is to sell early, and squeeze whatever you can out of a small market set by Kane and ask for a bigger return as the acquiring team gets more ROI with more games played by 88 in their barn.

19...no clue. I think that's a deadline move.

I hope KD also deals Domi, Murphy, maybe even Johnson at the deadline and acquires more picks. Hell anyone with value should go.

Rota's Rooter
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2017

Oct 12 @ 2:37 PM ET
When is the Hossa number retirement? I bet it happens after that but long before the deadline. I think for KD the best option is to sell early, and squeeze whatever you can out of a small market set by Kane and ask for a bigger return as the acquiring team gets more ROI with more games played by 88 in their barn.

19...no clue. I think that's a deadline move.

I hope KD also deals Domi, Murphy, maybe even Johnson at the deadline and acquires more picks. Hell anyone with value should go.

- SteveRain

11/20/2022

https://twitter.com/NHLBl...&t=cUH7q_dTZq_RGqcZLWazIw
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Oct 12 @ 2:45 PM ET
When is the Hossa number retirement? I bet it happens after that but long before the deadline. I think for KD the best option is to sell early, and squeeze whatever you can out of a small market set by Kane and ask for a bigger return as the acquiring team gets more ROI with more games played by 88 in their barn.

19...no clue. I think that's a deadline move.

I hope KD also deals Domi, Murphy, maybe even Johnson at the deadline and acquires more picks. Hell anyone with value should go.

- SteveRain


If we see these players as worthless, what do you think the other GM's think of these players?
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Oct 12 @ 2:55 PM ET
If we see these players as worthless, what do you think the other GM's think of these players?
- LAHawk

Yes and Kane, Toews, Murphy and McCabe will all need money retained which can't be done.
boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

Oct 12 @ 3:00 PM ET
When is the Hossa number retirement? I bet it happens after that but long before the deadline. I think for KD the best option is to sell early, and squeeze whatever you can out of a small market set by Kane and ask for a bigger return as the acquiring team gets more ROI with more games played by 88 in their barn.

19...no clue. I think that's a deadline move.

I hope KD also deals Domi, Murphy, maybe even Johnson at the deadline and acquires more picks. Hell anyone with value should go.

- SteveRain


On the flip side the more games Kane plays here, the less his prorated cap hit. Hawks play their 41st game in early January. At that point Kane's prorated cap hit is 5.25M. Half retained by the Hawks and 1/4 retained by a 3rd party means the acquiring team needs 1.3M in accumulated cap space. If a team doesn't have that much, they send back a 2M dollar or so salary which would be prorated at the time at 1M.

The numbers could always be worked out. The key to a Kane trade is to have multiple suitors driving up KD's asking price.
glennjpawlak22
Joined: 11.26.2013

Oct 12 @ 3:16 PM ET
On the flip side the more games Kane plays here, the less his prorated cap hit. Hawks play their 41st game in early January. At that point Kane's prorated cap hit is 5.25M. Half retained by the Hawks and 1/4 retained by a 3rd party means the acquiring team needs 1.3M in accumulated cap space. If a team doesn't have that much, they send back a 2M dollar or so salary which would be prorated at the time at 1M.

The numbers could always be worked out. The key to a Kane trade is to have multiple suitors driving up KD's asking price.

- boilermaker100


Im probably wrong, but I dont think that is how it works - anyone?
jhawk59
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Oct 12 @ 3:21 PM ET
Sad to see DeBrincat in a Sens uni, and I still can’t believe what little we got for him.
- Instamatic

This return could have been larger, but for KD because he wanted the rebuild to get off to a good start and perhaps he valued the pick more than ADB contract in three years.

Now he has to realize the payout for Kane may be substantially better now than at the trade deadline.

KD may actually wish to keep Jane until the deadline, ut if Kane at any time de ides he would agree to a trade sooner, then KD should go hard for either as high a #1 '23 or as top end a prospect and a #2 23 if receiving a top prospect instead if a '1 '23. A .mid to late #1 '23 or a top prospect plus a #2 '23....which do you Ike better.

Iike the idea of moving up in round one by trading a mid to late furst. Bu might not be able to get another GM to bite.

Playing his cards right is a big challenge. No way can I say whether KD will pull it off.
kmw4631
Location: CHICAGO
Joined: 02.27.2015

Oct 12 @ 3:23 PM ET
Yes and Kane, Toews, Murphy and McCabe will all need money retained which can't be done.
- rpeters01


KD is not going to retain for 4 years of Murp or 3 years for Mccabe. both guys need to get healthy and stay healthy and Maybe you can move them for a bad contract that is shorter.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Oct 12 @ 3:43 PM ET
This return could have been larger, but for KD because he wanted the rebuild to get off to a good start and perhaps he valued the pick more than ADB contract in three years.

Now he has to realize the payout for Kane may be substantially better now than at the trade deadline.

KD may actually wish to keep Jane until the deadline, ut if Kane at any time de ides he would agree to a trade sooner, then KD should go hard for either as high a #1 '23 or as top end a prospect and a #2 23 if receiving a top prospect instead if a '1 '23. A .mid to late #1 '23 or a top prospect plus a #2 '23....which do you Ike better.

Iike the idea of moving up in round one by trading a mid to late furst. Bu might not be able to get another GM to bite.

Playing his cards right is a big challenge. No way can I say whether KD will pull it off.

- jhawk59


Kane holds all the cards. He can say who, where, and when. He could be like Giroux that said he wanted to go to the Panthers at last years TDL, even though Colorado offered a better trade package.


TommyHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.23.2013

Oct 12 @ 3:52 PM ET
Happy Opening Night, y'all. Well, we all know it's a long year ahead so may as well have some fun with 10 predictions for the 22-23 Hawks:

(1) Mrazek and Stalock combine for 18 wins. 7 wins come from Soderblom, who by year's end takes over as full-time starter and cements his place as the starting goalie heading into 23-24
(2) Only one player eclipses 50 points - Kane - who approves a deal to the Pittsburgh Penguins in February
(3) Toews, with a depleted roster around him, fails to hit 40 points for the second year straight as the Hawks decide to hold onto their captain instead of dealing him for mid-round draft picks
(4) Athanasiou starts the year off hot and finds his touch with 88 as a linemate and scores 20 goals, netting the Hawks (2) second round picks at the deadline
(5) Domi and the Hawks agree to a three-year; $13M dollar extension in March
(6) The Hawks add 8 cumulative picks at the trade deadline
(7) Regula is second amongst d-men in ice time - ahead of Connor Murphy
(8) Reichel - with less than 25 games at the NHL level next year - scores 10 goals
(9) Hawks have a 14-game losing streak at some point this season
(10) Hawks end up with the 3rd overall pick in the 2023 NHL Draft
333inthe3rd
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 02.04.2015

Oct 12 @ 4:25 PM ET
Happy Opening Night, y'all. Well, we all know it's a long year ahead so may as well have some fun with 10 predictions for the 22-23 Hawks:

(1) Mrazek and Stalock combine for 18 wins. 7 wins come from Soderblom, who by year's end takes over as full-time starter and cements his place as the starting goalie heading into 23-24
(2) Only one player eclipses 50 points - Kane - who approves a deal to the Pittsburgh Penguins in February
(3) Toews, with a depleted roster around him, fails to hit 40 points for the second year straight as the Hawks decide to hold onto their captain instead of dealing him for mid-round draft picks
(4) Athanasiou starts the year off hot and finds his touch with 88 as a linemate and scores 20 goals, netting the Hawks (2) second round picks at the deadline
(5) Domi and the Hawks agree to a three-year; $13M dollar extension in March
(6) The Hawks add 8 cumulative picks at the trade deadline
(7) Regula is second amongst d-men in ice time - ahead of Connor Murphy
(8) Reichel - with less than 25 games at the NHL level next year - scores 10 goals
(9) Hawks have a 14-game losing streak at some point this season
(10) Hawks end up with the 3rd overall pick in the 2023 NHL Draft

- TommyHawk


I like the parameters of this list. What kind of numbers do you see Domi putting up here? If he does something close to what he did in Montreal, what are the chances he gets dealt?
TommyHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.23.2013

Oct 12 @ 4:38 PM ET
I like the parameters of this list. What kind of numbers do you see Domi putting up here? If he does something close to what he did in Montreal, what are the chances he gets dealt?
- 333inthe3rd

I don't think he touches the numbers he had in his breakout in Montreal and think this past season is a better indicator of the type of player we can expect him to be.

I think 10-15 goals and 30 assists is a reasonable expectation. He may have more ice time, but the talent he'll be playing with will offset. At the end of the day, the Hawks still need to field NHL-caliber forwards even in a deep rebuild just embarking (Tyler Johnson/Lukas Reichel are the best forwards under contract on the roster for next season). At 27 years old, Domi is locked in for a couple years in the middle-six. Considering he isn't particularly strong defensively or at the draw, I don't think there will be considerable interest him at the deadline so it'd make sense to re-sign him as a building block for the immediate future.
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Oct 12 @ 5:05 PM ET
KD is not going to retain for 4 years of Murp or 3 years for Mccabe. both guys need to get healthy and stay healthy and Maybe you can move them for a bad contract that is shorter.
- kmw4631

When pigs fly...
333inthe3rd
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 02.04.2015

Oct 12 @ 5:21 PM ET
I don't think he touches the numbers he had in his breakout in Montreal and think this past season is a better indicator of the type of player we can expect him to be.

I think 10-15 goals and 30 assists is a reasonable expectation. He may have more ice time, but the talent he'll be playing with will offset. At the end of the day, the Hawks still need to field NHL-caliber forwards even in a deep rebuild just embarking (Tyler Johnson/Lukas Reichel are the best forwards under contract on the roster for next season). At 27 years old, Domi is locked in for a couple years in the middle-six. Considering he isn't particularly strong defensively or at the draw, I don't think there will be considerable interest him at the deadline so it'd make sense to re-sign him as a building block for the immediate future.

- TommyHawk


He's been close to 10/30 in most seasons aside from that year in Montreal. Fair assessment, though. It's easy to think they should get a good return at the deadline, because that's what we do on here. The flip side of being the board of doom is wildly overinflating the value of the assets here. He would have to put up something better than 10/30 to get more term here, though, as they (or someone else, even) would have given him more than a year if they thought 10/30 was adequate.

The rental market is a strange animal, we all know that. I suppose we'd have to look at all the expiring contracts in the NHL to make better sense of what the market could look like. I'm sure every front office has a good handle on this. What will the supply and demand be like for centers, and how good can Kane make him look in the interim?
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