watch the replay, Stu was in the scrum celebrating with Giroux, however that was a (frank) up play that ended well for OTT as if stu had not noticed Chabots pass it would have gone to the kings player and been a 3 on 2 in OTTs end also Giroux goal was lucky as if you look at the replay the puck skiped over his stick at the final deek and he just barely got enough of it that it hit the post and went in.

Luck is why OTT win this game pure and simple.
- Mithos

Thomas Acquinas taught that luck (or good fortune) is providential (an act of God). But, more important, he believed that if you practiced and developed good habits (skill) there is a higher probability that fortune (positive coincidence) will come out in your favour more often than not.

You want to believe that a few coaches are looking at that film clip this morning and saying be careful playing Timmy Superstar deep in his own end, maybe give him more space. He has spectacular ice vision and can kill you with the deep pass.

The goal was my season highlight. Giroux +2, Timmy +2, Chobot +2 and Brady +1. Everyone else even on the night. Top line needs to play + hockey if this team is to have success on most nights.

The idea that they practiced that maneuver appeals to me because I think Giroux is a good player and can't imagine him deliberately screwing over his team mates. I really hope that's true. Would go a long way to explaining what all three of them were doing below the goal line for a minute there. Well not Stutzle but he was close and going in the right direction to retrieve the pass from Chabot that Giroux skated right by.
- Whatisavailable

It does not matter if they practiced the move or not.

But really important to tell everyone that is how they drew it up and they work on it at every practice.

It does not matter if they practiced the move or not.

But really important to tell everyone that is how they drew it up and they work on it at every practice.
- spatso

I have looked at the replay a bunch of times and have now concluded that it was actually a series of broken plays. Maybe they had practiced something because otherwise it doesn't make any sense for Giroux to tap the puck back to Chabot that way when Chabot had a Kings player right on him and if it had been anyone other than Chabot there could have been big trouble right there. Not sure if Giroux missed the pass behind the net because he hesitated for a split second taking a look and when he sees Stutzle is on it he takes off. Good on Stutzle to beat Kopitar for the puck and make a great pass.

It was the bungled look of things that had all 3 Kings forwards deep and not paying any attention to Giroux at all. They were smelling blood.

I have looked at the replay a bunch of times and have now concluded that it was actually a broken series of plays. Maybe they had practiced something because otherwise it doesn't make any sense for Giroux to tap the puck back to Chabot that way when Chabot had a Kings player right on him and if it had been anyone other than Chabot there could have been big trouble right there. Not sure if Giroux missed the pass behind the net because he hesitated for a split second taking a look and when he sees Stutzle is on it he takes off. Good on Stutzle to beat Kopitar for the puck and make a great pass.

It was the bungled look of things that had all 3 Kings forwards deep and not paying any attention to Giroux at all. They were smelling blood.
- Whatisavailable

It does not happen without Timmy's skill and vision.

Missed the game but caught the highlights. Not sure it is worth overanalyzing the OT winner. It made for an exciting 3 on 3 chance and goal. Coaches have really minimized the excitement of 3 on 3, but that play is what makes it fun.

I am surprised there is more not being discussed about the Stu pass, even if the play was more or less a series of blunders prior to the pass. Not just anyone can make that backhand saucer pass down the ice onto the stick of a teammate. Folks tend to be hard on Stu for his style of play but that play in OT doesn’t happen if he doesn’t trust his bag of tricks. Not dissimilar to Jason Spezza once upon a time. You take the good with the bad and hope the good outweighs most of the time.

It's only 2 wins but nice to get a little streak going to maybe get some confidence going. This team has too much talent to be a draft lottery team.

It does not happen without Timmy's skill and vision.
- spatso

Drafting of Jason Spezza at #2 (2001 draft) is probably not that great a comparison but it is interesting to make a general progress comparison with Stutzle's development.

When Spezza turned age 21, he had played 33 NHL games, scored 7 goals with 21 assists for a total of 28 points.

Draisaitl played 109 games with 21 goals 39 assists and 60 points before his 21st birthday.

Stutzle does not turn 21 for another 7 weeks (so another 20 games from now).

He has already played 152 NHL games, scored 42 goals and 65 assists for 107 points.

The gold standard is obviously McDavid who racked up points at the rate of 1.16 ppg before his 21st birthday. Stutzle is at .708 in the comparable age cycle. Kid is doing okay.
- spatso

Good post and good examples. Stu is still a very raw player. Lots of natural ability but still needs fine tuning. It’s easy to forget that Stu hasn’t cracked the age of 21 yet. You hope his career continues to arch over the next couple of years. I think he can enter the super star discussion down the line.

Even if what he is now is all he will ever be, there are worse options/contracts out there. He still provides top 6 scoring and an elite skillset.

Smith back to playing Chabot over 28 minutes. I wonder if we ever see Thomson or JBD again this year.

Good to see them put a couple of wins together on the road. They're clearly a different team with Chabot & Zub back in the lineup, and secondary scoring makes a huge difference when it manifests. Interesting to note that their win against LA was both their first one-goal win of the year, and their first win in a game where they didn't score 4+ goals.

As for the criticism of Giroux in OT, I give him a long leash because he plays an incredibly key role on the team. For instance, I was curious to see the extent to which player production was different in games where they won and games where they lost (i.e. who scores points in games where they don't necessarily get the secondary scoring they need to get a win). I compared Tkachuk, Stutzle, Giroux, DeBrincat, Pinto, Batherson, Chabot, and Sanderson, and calculated the % of their points that come from games where they win.

The results?
<50% - Giroux (35%), Sanderson (46%)
50%-60% - DeBrincat (59%), Stutzle (59%), Pinto (60%)
>60% - Batherson (63%), Tkachuk (64%), Chabot (78%)

Giroux and Sanderson were the only major players who actually scored more of their points in games where the team lost, and that's before even taking into account that they've won just 8 of 21GP. In practice, that means there's a major problem with many of their top scorers not producing consistent offence, especially in games where they won't have leads or the opportunity for EN chances. Once again, this is where I see huge value in Giroux... consistent scoring, veteran presence, top-10 in the NHL in faceoffs... all major weaknesses of the current forward roster.

Good to see them put a couple of wins together on the road. They're clearly a different team with Chabot & Zub back in the lineup, and secondary scoring makes a huge difference when it manifests. Interesting to note that their win against LA was both their first one-goal win of the year, and their first win in a game where they didn't score 4+ goals.

As for the criticism of Giroux in OT, I give him a long leash because he plays an incredibly key role on the team. For instance, I was curious to see the extent to which player production was different in games where they won and games where they lost (i.e. who scores points in games where they don't necessarily get the secondary scoring they need to get a win). I compared Tkachuk, Stutzle, Giroux, DeBrincat, Pinto, Batherson, Chabot, and Sanderson, and calculated the % of their points that come from games where they win.

The results?
<50% - Giroux (35%), Sanderson (46%)
50%-60% - DeBrincat (59%), Stutzle (59%), Pinto (60%)
>60% - Batherson (63%), Tkachuk (64%), Chabot (78%)

Giroux and Sanderson were the only major players who actually scored more of their points in games where the team lost, and that's before even taking into account that they've won just 8 of 21GP. In practice, that means there's a major problem with many of their top scorers not producing consistent offence, especially in games where they won't have leads or the opportunity for EN chances. Once again, this is where I see huge value in Giroux... consistent scoring, veteran presence, top-10 in the NHL in faceoffs... all major weaknesses of the current forward roster.
- khawk

It might be important to take a look at where they score their goals. For instance Giroux has 9 goals and 11 assists but only 1 of those goals and 6 of those assists come on the PP so he seems to be really effective 5 on 5.

Tkachuk has 9 goals and 16 assists but only 3 of those goals and 8 of those assists come on the PP so he seems to be really effective 5 on 5.

Stutzle has 8 goals and 14 assists but only 2 of those goals and 8 of those assists come on the PP so he seems to be really effective 5 on 5.

Batherson is 5 and 11 with 3 and 7 which is less effective 5 on 5.

Sanderson is 1 and 10 with 1 and 6 which is less effective 5 on 5.

Pinto is 8 and 2 with 3 and 4 which is less effective 5 on 5.

Chabot is 3 and 6 with 2 and 4 which is less effective 5 on 5.

DeBrincat is 6 and 11 with 3 and 9, with one of those remaining 3 being an EN goal which was gifted to him by I forget who, which is almost not effective at all 5 on 5 and no great shakes on the PP either.

It might be important to take a look at where they score their goals. For instance Giroux has 9 goals and 11 assists but only 1 of those goals and 6 of those assists come on the PP so he seems to be really effective 5 on 5.

Tkachuk has 9 goals and 16 assists but only 3 of those goals and 8 of those assists come on the PP so he seems to be really effective 5 on 5.

Stutzle has 8 goals and 14 assists but only 2 of those goals and 8 of those assists come on the PP so he seems to be really effective 5 on 5.

Batherson is 5 and 11 with 3 and 7 which is less effective 5 on 5.

Sanderson is 1 and 10 with 1 and 6 which is less effective 5 on 5.

Pinto is 8 and 2 with 3 and 4 which is less effective 5 on 5.

Chabot is 3 and 6 with 2 and 4 which is less effective 5 on 5.

DeBrincat is 6 and 11 with 3 and 9, with one of those remaining 3 being an EN goal which was gifted to him by I forget who, which is almost not effective at all 5 on 5 and no great shakes on the PP either.
- Whatisavailable

I thought DeBrincat was really good last night. He was strong on the puck and played a really good defensive game all night.

Browsing Twitter and saw a great question.

Most assume that Steutzle would be #1 if his draft class got a do over.

Would Sanderson go #2?

Browsing Twitter and saw a great question.

Most assume that Steutzle would be #1 if his draft class got a do over.

Would Sanderson go #2?
- spatso

Raymond goes second, IMO.

Browsing Twitter and saw a great question.

Most assume that Steutzle would be #1 if his draft class got a do over.

Would Sanderson go #2?
- spatso

Raymond 2nd, Sanderson 3rd

Raymond 2nd, Sanderson 3rd
- Mithos

A touch early to adjudge this definitively, but the 2020 draft is an interesting case study in 'can't miss' prospect assessment at the top of the draft. Lafrenière was the consensus #1 for so long, Byfield the consensus 'consolation' prize. Clearly Sakic and Yzerman have good eyes for where the real talent lies in the top 10, perhaps Dorion can be added to that list.

A touch early to adjudge this definitively, but the 2020 draft is an interesting case study in 'can't miss' prospect assessment at the top of the draft. Lafrenière was the consensus #1 for so long, Byfield the consensus 'consolation' prize. Clearly Sakic and Yzerman have good eyes for where the real talent lies in the top 10, perhaps Dorion can be added to that list.
- Bartacus

Or at least the top 9.

Browsing Twitter and saw a great question.

Most assume that Steutzle would be #1 if his draft class got a do over.

Would Sanderson go #2?
- spatso

I'm taking Sanderson over Raymond 10 times out of 10 and I didn't even need a do over for that one.

I remember watching the World Juniours that year. Lafreniere was great, Byfield was invisible. Stutzle really stood out. When the draft happened I was so happy when LA picked Byfield leaving us Stutzle and then when Detroit picked Raymond because I wanted a Dman and it didn't matter which of Sanderson or Drysdale it was although I would have preferred a Canadian like Drysdale if only he was bigger. Shamefully I was happy when they took Sanderson.

I thought DeBrincat was really good last night. He was strong on the puck and played a really good defensive game all night.
- spatso

I was using the word "effective" as in how it pertains to goal scoring so far this season.

khawk, Whatisavailable, and others - wow! Good research and interesting stats

I'm taking Sanderson over Raymond 10 times out of 10 and I didn't even need a do over for that one.

I remember watching the World Juniours that year. Lafreniere was great, Byfield was invisible. Stutzle really stood out. When the draft happened I was so happy when LA picked Byfield leaving us Stutzle and then when Detroit picked Raymond because I wanted a Dman and it didn't matter which of Sanderson or Drysdale it was although I would have preferred a Canadian like Drysdale if only he was bigger. Shamefully I was happy when they took Sanderson.
- Whatisavailable

Cannot tell a lie. I was hoping the Sens would be lucky and Byfield would drop down to#3. Worse, I was hoping that they would take Marco Rossi at #5. And, I did not like when they took Brady at #4 in his draft. Drafting would not be something that I would think I would be very good at.

For those who got a bit too excited about Colin White and the start he had with Florida, it's worth noting that he's rapidly come back to Earth. After scoring 7Pts in his first 8GP, he's had just 4Pts in his last 12GP. He's also still got a 18.5% shooting % which will normalize over time, and very likely result in a further decline. It's understandable why he might start the year out with unusual determination, after being bought-out and signed to a low-% 1yr deal... but it really is a honeymoon phase, and over time the same limitations an issues will start to show.

The same was true of Logan Brown when he got traded to STL. He hit the ground running with a very good first month in the AHL last year, followed by a few impressive NHL games... but then a very rapid decline. And it's been nothing but back to the same old since then, including an unfortunate return of his injury problems. I'm sure he'll stick around with STL so long as he remains affordable, but there's no indication that he'll ever develop into the player the Senators hoped he would at the 2016 draft.

DJ just can't help himself. 28 min. TOI for Chabot and scratches Thomson. It's sickening how much he doesn't want to give Thomson a real legit shot with legit ice time in just 2 games with the big club. He wins 2 games and gets a reprieve from not being being fired. Dorion said 3 weeks ago, judge us on our next set of games when he said he was loyal to DJ. Well, 4-11 in that stretch, yet he's still the head coach of this team. Shameful.

khawk, Whatisavailable, and others - wow! Good research and interesting stats
- AlfieisKing

Great discussion. Numbers dont lie.

Even after winning 2 straight this team is still 10 points out of the final wildcard spot.

Even after winning 2 straight this team is still 10 points out of the final wildcard spot.
- LawyerSens4Life

8 pts out with a game in hand.

Conference is better balanced than previous years and a team could sneak in with a 93 point total (unlikely). More likely that 96 points will do it if bottom teams keep winning their share of points.

Making the playoffs for a rebuilding team should not be the primary measure in trying to figure out if a team is becoming a solid contender.

But, most fans want to stay relevant and be part of the conversation beyond Christmas.