As this season progresses, I just can’t imagine a scenario where it is a smart idea to not try to lock up Debrincat. He’s a point per game player who has shown both playmaking and shooting ability. He is not such the one-dimensional player that there were concerns about. He will not be signing a new deal from an entry level contract. He already commands 6.4 mill on the cap. If he gets 8 mill per on an extension, that is around 1.6 mill more than now. The Austin Watson contract that will expire. If it is 9 mill per, 2.6ish. The Travis Hamoic contract that will expire. This is not as huge and crazy of a commitment as some would lead you to believe. Being a cap team is a weird and new thing for the Ottawa Senators and their fans. Maxmizing the cap is essential to be a contender. Obviously, this roster has some work to do to move money to accommodate new contracts and supporting players. That can’t be ignored and there will likely be some tough/controversial roster decisions as a result. However, that is something all teams contending an maxing the cap have to deal with.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

You say :
Obviously, this roster has some work to do to move money to accommodate new contracts and supporting players. That can’t be ignored and there will likely be some tough/controversial roster decisions as a result.

___________________________________________________________________

This team has a very good core locked up with Tkachuk, Stutzle, Norris, Batherson and Chabot. Giroux will be around for two more years and is worth every penny.

I think Sanderson will be a top NHL Dman and so did everybody else until they realized he can't be because then you'd have to pay him top Dman money and you can't do that if you're going to give DeBrincat 9 million. Anyway I'd lock up Sanderson long term for 8 million as soon as he becomes eligible. You need a strong D if you plan on winning anything.

Zub is in place so you need to find another top 4RD at about the same money or a little more. JBD and somebody can be your third pairing. Thomson or Kleven might be a lot of the answer.

Forsberg is there at 2.5 and maybe you can keep Talbot for another year at his current number.

Pinto will cost you 4.5 million and I think will prove to be a value contract.

All of this works nicely without a problem and no gruesome roster decisions to make and as the cap rises steadily in the years to come you'll be able to give guys like Kastelec and JBD and Greig and whoever the money they'll need without a problem.

There will be the money to round out the bottom six with guys that can shut things down and contribute offensively. Guys like Ostapchuk and Boucher might be a lot of the answer.

There will also be the money to pay a true number one goalie down the road.

This is not settling for mediocrity and that's how you build a contender - by being cap responsible - not by chasing a leprechaun and his pot of gold.

I know that this is not a popular view and will be dismissed by most and ridiculed by some. The same was true when I said trading Paul for Joseph was stupid or when I said play Stutzle at C because you may already have your number 1 C and don't need to go looking for one or when I said Cole Sillinger was no great shakes and that I'd rather have Boucher.

The Connor Brown trade comes to mind. So does Brannstrom. I said right from the get go that he wouldn't work out. As soon as they acquired DeBrincat I had an intuition that this acquisition had the potential to be really bad for the team and that feeling has been increasing ever since especially now that I see him being elevated to almost the status of a generational player. If they sign this guy it will be the equivalent of when TO signed Tavares and I said that was also a stupid signing when they did it. They needed D and a goalie.

This will not end well for any hope of a parade in Ottawa.

The only red flag I have with Debrincat is his noticeable lack of enthusiasm for joining this team after the trade was made. Time, camaraderie, and winning can help warm a player to a foreign market, but his initial reaction suggested he might have stronger opinions on playing closer to home than most. Look at Jimmy Vesey - he didn't sign in Nashville, refused Buffalo, all to sign with the Rangers. Bounced around a year until the Rangers wanted him again. Signed two more years at 800k to stick with the Rangers. Everyone wasn't doing their homework - the kid wants to play for one team and one team only. If Deb gets signed to a reasonable 8M~*5-6 extension, he'd be a great add, but Debrincat may well be Canada-sceptic. We'll see if he holds out to bet on himself and take his QO. IMO, that would be the definitive signal he wants out ASAP, and time to look at a trade.

You say :
Obviously, this roster has some work to do to move money to accommodate new contracts and supporting players. That can’t be ignored and there will likely be some tough/controversial roster decisions as a result.

___________________________________________________________________

This team has a very good core locked up with Tkachuk, Stutzle, Norris, Batherson and Chabot. Giroux will be around for two more years and is worth every penny.

I think Sanderson will be a top NHL Dman and so did everybody else until they realized he can't be because then you'd have to pay him top Dman money and you can't do that if you're going to give DeBrincat 9 million. Anyway I'd lock up Sanderson long term for 8 million as soon as he becomes eligible. You need a strong D if you plan on winning anything.

Zub is in place so you need to find another top 4RD at about the same money or a little more. JBD and somebody can be your third pairing. Thomson or Kleven might be a lot of the answer.

Forsberg is there at 2.5 and maybe you can keep Talbot for another year at his current number.

Pinto will cost you 4.5 million and I think will prove to be a value contract.

All of this works nicely without a problem and no gruesome roster decisions to make and as the cap rises steadily in the years to come you'll be able to give guys like Kastelec and JBD and Greig and whoever the money they'll need without a problem.

There will be the money to round out the bottom six with guys that can shut things down and contribute offensively. Guys like Ostapchuk and Boucher might be a lot of the answer.

There will also be the money to pay a true number one goalie down the road.

This is not settling for mediocrity and that's how you build a contender - by being cap responsible - not by chasing a leprechaun and his pot of gold.

I know that this is not a popular view and will be dismissed by most and ridiculed by some. The same was true when I said trading Paul for Joseph was stupid or when I said play Stutzle at C because you may already have your number 1 C and don't need to go looking for one or when I said Cole Sillinger was no great shakes and that I'd rather have Boucher.

The Connor Brown trade comes to mind. So does Brannstrom. I said right from the get go that he wouldn't work out. As soon as they acquired DeBrincat I had an intuition that this acquisition had the potential to be really bad for the team and that feeling has been increasing ever since especially now that I see him being elevated to almost the status of a generational player. If they sign this guy it will be the equivalent of when TO signed Tavares and I said that was also a stupid signing when they did it. They needed D and a goalie.

This will not end well for any hope of a parade in Ottawa.
- Whatisavailable

I get it. There is more cap flexibility not resigning him and preparing that other young players will demands very sizable contracts. Ottawa has set a precedent of locking guys up out of their entry deals. It could potentially be a hard sell to the likes of Pinto and Sanderson to take bridge, team-friendly deals.

It’s actually a great discussion: both sides. I’m admittedly very biased that Debrincat should be signed.

Wingers like him do not come around very often. While we thought Ottawa was acquiring a pure goal scorer, he has a tremendous ability to create plays and keep plays going. He seems to have developed chemistry with most of the forward group and from purely from a fan perspective, seems to be enjoying his time on the ice. While it is hard to predict regression, any deal at 25 years of age, likely shouldn’t result in a serious dip in regression.

Arguments against keeping him on are that he will likely see a raise from the 6.4 mill cap hit now which could create more of a cap crunch down the line if there is some unwise spending. You could not sign him and sign two/three quality players for less each to fill other holes. He could fetch a reasonable package via trade. He may have peaked with his career production. He may actually not want to stay in Ottawa.

As I say, I think he should be resigned. What a luxury it would be to not have to worry about your top 6 forwards for 5-8 years and focus on other areas of improvement with a rising cap. There may be a tough decision/negotiation/etc down the line as a result, but would those decisions/negotiations be as impactful as having to replace a player of Debrincat’s value? I am not so sure.

A lot of the hate for DeBrincat from this forum has little to do with the $9M scenario. The nay sayers do not like his size and style of play. More specifically, they feel he will be incapable of playing playoff hockey. It is as simple as that. The whole bit about his contract just helps the narrative they are trying to sell.

No one knows how he will do in a deep playoff run. Just do not let the BS contract talk fool you.

A lot of the hate for DeBrincat from this forum has little to do with the $9M scenario. The nay sayers do not like his size and style of play. More specifically, they feel he will be incapable of playing playoff hockey. It is as simple as that. The whole bit about his contract just helps the narrative they are trying to sell.

No one knows how he will do in a deep playoff run. Just do not let the BS contract talk fool you.
- HoweHatrick

Maybe.

But, I also think there are some people who are fearful about stepping out of the draft and development model.

I was not a huge fan of trading for DeBrincat. But I have come around and become a believer. I think most folks are sincere as a supporter but fearful that a long term deal would be a mistake.

I believe it would be a mistake to let him get away.

Maybe.

But, I also think there are some people who are fearful about stepping out of the draft and development model.

I was not a huge fan of trading for DeBrincat. But I have come around and become a believer. I think most folks are sincere as a supporter but fearful that a long term deal would be a mistake.

I believe it would be a mistake to let him get away.
- spatso

Comments disparaging the player by calling him "little" and "kitten" are pretty transparent.

Comments disparaging the player by calling him "little" and "kitten" are pretty transparent.
- HoweHatrick

Agreed. The most important numbers for a player are statistical, not vertical. St. Louis, Marchand, Zuccarello, Richard, Gaudreau, Worsley, Fleury, Lindsay, Caufield, Dionne, Kane, Verbeek, Point. The numbers over the past five years say we can add Debrincat. The more recent names on this list (outside Kane) dropped in the draft because of stature. History shows underestimating talent is myopic, and Debrincat has done nothing but prove every NHL GM (outside Calgary and St. Louis) wrong for passing on him in the 2016 draft. We traded our third that year to move up, picked titan-sized Logan Brown - we all know how that panned out. Numbers don't lie. They very rarely outright fall off cliffs for players in their prime. Having a player with the level of determination and talent Debrincat possesses is a huge asset. He's been turning it on lately, making the hate further unjustified. I just hope he's having fun and considers sticking around.

Not a reporter close to his family, this week report that DeBrincat really enjoys the city and teammate and want to sign long term here

Agreed. The most important numbers for a player are statistical, not vertical. St. Louis, Marchand, Zuccarello, Richard, Gaudreau, Worsley, Fleury, Lindsay, Caufield, Dionne, Kane, Verbeek, Point. The numbers over the past five years say we can add Debrincat. The more recent names on this list (outside Kane) dropped in the draft because of stature. History shows underestimating talent is myopic, and Debrincat has done nothing but prove every NHL GM (outside Calgary and St. Louis) wrong for passing on him in the 2016 draft. We traded our third that year to move up, picked titan-sized Logan Brown - we all know how that panned out. Numbers don't lie. They very rarely outright fall off cliffs for players in their prime. Having a player with the level of determination and talent Debrincat possesses is a huge asset. He's been turning it on lately, making the hate further unjustified. I just hope he's having fun and considers sticking around.
- Bartacus

It's interesting how some people who don't want to address the problems that the salary cap presents choose to declare the cap to be completely irrelevant and change the conversation to whether small players can be successful in the NHL. It's then just a simple matter of citing the names of a few small players who have succeeded and the discussion is over.

Hopefully whoever makes roster decisions for the franchise is aware of the existence and relevance of the salary cap.

It's interesting how some people who don't want to address the problems that the salary cap presents choose to declare the cap to be completely irrelevant and change the conversation to whether small players can be successful in the NHL. It's then just a simple matter of citing the names of a few small players who have succeeded and the discussion is over.

Hopefully whoever makes roster decisions for the franchise is aware of the existence and relevance of the salary cap.
- Whatisavailable

The salary cap becomes an issue when it becomes an issue. It's not an issue now, so I struggle to find merit in penning lengthy daily missives opining the inevitable doom of the franchise and scapegoating performing players for superfluous reasons while the hockey being played is promising and worth celebrating.

The New Jersey Devils aren't building a great team - their building a dynasty.

Getting Nico Hischier 1st overall in 2017 was one thing. Seeing him turn into a point-a-game player took some time. But even he isn't the reason why my jaw is on the floor.

Superstar Jack Hughes was taken in 2019. Then the year after in 2020 the Devils had 3 picks in the top 20. Months before this draft, after Alexis Lafrienere, I was thinking "if had the #2, #3 picks I would take the Sweedes in Holtz and Raymond". Of course I'm really happy we got Stutzle and Sanderson, both were on fire leading up to the draft. Add Dawson Mercer to NJ at 18!

But what NJD did after this, man. Team Canada defeated Slovkia and the player that stood out was their captain - Simon Nemec. He scored a big goal in the loss. He was just drafted 2nd Overall by NJ last year. Then who impressed me today for USA? It was Luke Hughes (also the captain of his team if I'm not mistaken). His desire to win and skating ability, WITH THE puck is just amazing.

Hughes brothers, Heisher, Nemec, Mercer, Holtz, and Dougie Hamlton locked up - their future is really bright - and I'm not even a fan of their team

The salary cap becomes an issue when it becomes an issue. It's not an issue now, so I struggle to find merit in penning lengthy daily missives opining the inevitable doom of the franchise and scapegoating performing players for superfluous reasons while the hockey being played is promising and worth celebrating.
- Bartacus

Oh I often appreciate the hockey being played and see possibly a very bright future for the franchise but a lot of the Sens hockey commentators and fans remind me of children playing with matches next to the curtains and it makes me nervous.

A recent article evaluating top young players ranked Jack Hughes as a top tier talent along with a few other players. They made more news by putting Lafreniere in a low tier (merely average).

They gave Timmy 2nd star treatment (same as Brady).

I was wondering how Timmy actually matched up head to head with Hughes over the first three years of their career (first 166 games).

Hughes 166 44 64 108
Stuetzle 166 49 73 122

Sign DeBrincat
Arguments against are pretty ridiculous.

Sign DeBrincat
Arguments against are pretty ridiculous.
- Octavarium

How does it work again for him? I recall that his RFA status has certain stipulation, that it had to be a certain amount for next year?

How does it work again for him? I recall that his RFA status has certain stipulation, that it had to be a certain amount for next year?
- david22

I think your right and the offer needs to be $9.5m

I think your right and the offer needs to be $9.5m
- spatso

I believe he gets paid 9 mill for the Sens to qualify his rights. The actual contract which would affect the cap could be in the 8-9 mill range. But I am not 100% sure. Several sites have worded it differently.

I believe he gets paid 9 mill for the Sens to qualify his rights. The actual contract which would affect the cap could be in the 8-9 mill range. But I am not 100% sure. Several sites have worded it differently.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

So a front loaded contract would meet the requirements, even if the overall cap hit could be lower than 9?

I've also read a lot of mixed things on this.

I believe he gets paid 9 mill for the Sens to qualify his rights. The actual contract which would affect the cap could be in the 8-9 mill range. But I am not 100% sure. Several sites have worded it differently.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

It's unusual and recent phenomenon to have a QO at such a high value - very few players are worth 9+, but his contract was back loaded and the CBA dictates your QO is based off your last year's wage, not your contract cap hit. But that doesn't mean 9M is the starting point for negotiation - the Sens will try to sign him longer term for less, but ultimately it is the player's prerogative to take that one year guarantee. Kotkaniemi signed with Carolina for less than his QO in exchange for an eight year deal. In effect, if Debrincat takes his QO, he'd be betting on himself next year over long term security, which is a big gamble because it suggests he thinks he's worth even more than the QO value, and he'll have to put up the numbers next year to prove it or risk taking a big haircut moving forward.

Ottawa's cap can absorb the one year at $9M but if Debrincat opts for that path I'd gather there's an above grade chance it's because he really wants to play somewhere else, as most players in their mid-twenties/prime value job security over one year pay days. John Klingberg is a good example of betting on yourself and losing - he probably cost himself 5-10 million or more in the long run for signing one year with Anaheim at 7 this offseason. Debrincat should land around the Stu/Brady numbers on a 6-7y contract IMO - if the player chooses to gamble with the QO, we can absorb it and talk trades this offseason, but there is some risk involved to the player if he takes that path.

I believe he gets paid 9 mill for the Sens to qualify his rights. The actual contract which would affect the cap could be in the 8-9 mill range. But I am not 100% sure. Several sites have worded it differently.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

The minimum QO is $9.0M, based on the last year of his current contract. However, that's just the minimum amount that must be offered as a 1yr contract in order to retain his RFA rights - it has no bearing on the AAV of a longer-term extension that he might choose to sign. The Kotkaniemi situation in CAR is an example of a players signing a long-term extensions with a lower AAV than their QO. You may recall that CAR poached him from MTL by way of an RFA offer sheet worth 1yr/$6.1M AAV, but CAR then extended him on a 8yr/$4.8M AAV deal. Personally, I don't think DeBrincat would be worth more than $8.0M-$8.5M if he gets >6yr term, but we'll see what happens.

EDIT: Just realized someone else responded to this while I was typing it out. Got to be fast around here.

I believe he gets paid 9 mill for the Sens to qualify his rights. The actual contract which would affect the cap could be in the 8-9 mill range. But I am not 100% sure. Several sites have worded it differently.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

It does not really matter if DeBrincat signs with the Sens for $8.5m, $9.0m or even $10.m. More important, is DeBrincat a right fit, do you want DeBrincat in your top six?

With an accelerating cap, Sens clearly have already signed great value deals with Chabot, Zub, Tkachuk, Stutzle, Batherson and Giroux. I believe, the jury is still out on the Norris contract. Sanderson, Pinto and DeBrincat are key pieces still remaining.

Do you see this roster growing into a contender? Do the Sens need to make DeBrincat a part of the core?

The math in making this happen is not nearly as challenging as some people make it out to be.

The minimum QO is $9.0M, based on the last year of his current contract. However, that's just the minimum amount that must be offered as a 1yr contract in order to retain his RFA rights - it has no bearing on the AAV of a longer-term extension that he might choose to sign. The Kotkaniemi situation in CAR is an example of a players signing a long-term extensions with a lower AAV than their QO. You may recall that CAR poached him from MTL by way of an RFA offer sheet worth 1yr/$6.1M AAV, but CAR then extended him on a 8yr/$4.8M AAV deal. Personally, I don't think DeBrincat would be worth more than $8.0M-$8.5M if he gets >6yr term, but we'll see what happens.

EDIT: Just realized someone else responded to this while I was typing it out. Got to be fast around here.
- khawk

I would say more eloquently and succinctly good sir 😁

Should note one thing hurting Ottawa in approaching these kinds of deals is the complete unwillingness to include any bonus structure in contracts. A practice I like, because it makes contracts moveable and buyouttable, but it detracts from bargaining power, especially when the player has arb rights.

Should note one thing hurting Ottawa in approaching these kinds of deals is the complete unwillingness to include any bonus structure in contracts. A practice I like, because it makes contracts moveable and buyouttable, but it detracts from bargaining power, especially when the player has arb rights.
- Bartacus

Entirely dependent on cash flow and an owner with the capacity to absorb the cost of bonus structured deals. Has no impact on the cap. But has really significant impact in helping a team to trade an older player in the latter stages of a long term deal.

The Cap is not going to be an issue with #12. The only issue will be whether DeBrincat wants to play here long term and if he will take a contract in the $8M range.