I have a hard time seeing a guy coming off his first full season turning down $18-24M over 6-years.

The Flyers were trying to be cute and time it so Sanny would come back up for contract right after Nisky's expired and right before Seattle expansion.
- Tomahawk

This has changed the last 10 years. Players getting paid earlier. his first full season was his best so far statistically. For a d man, first full season with 35 points. First round pick and how the organization spoke about him. Then seeing forwards get more money in TK and Farabee. IDK, but it is not 2010 anymore.

also they have others in the room they could look at as examples. I.e Simmer

dont disagree with the flyers approach with the expansion draft.

It's hilarious that there's a twitter narrative out there now that yeah, Risto can't score points anymore, but at least he's good defensively, when the Flyers have two different veteran dmen making $1m or less with better defensive results in similar third pairing minutes.

If Ristolainen retired today and went back to Finland, the Flyers could plug Braun back in as the the third pairing RHD and immediately be a better team. But because of the massive contract Fletcher gave him, they have to play him.

https://www.naturalstattr...ines=single&draftteam=ALL

Goals against per 60 minutes at 5on5

Ristolainen - 2.89
Provorov - 2.68
Seeler - 2.61
DeAngelo - 2.54
Zamula - 2.42
Sanheim - 2.45
York - 2.16
Braun - 2.09
- Feanor

When trying to gauge how well defensively a player is doing, you need to look at isolated impact on expected goal differential. This paints a much different picture.

Player xGF xGA E+/-
DeAngelo 27.6 32.9 -5.2
Sanheim 29.2 34.8 -5.5
Provorov 31.1 34.2 -3.1
York 13.5 13.7 -0.2
Risto 23.1 21.6 +1.5
Seeler 23.0 18.3 +4.7

Zacha is 25 years old and is a player that is on the rise. Boston feels he is going to continue to improve, hence the signing. Hayes is 30 years old and is likely to decline as he ages. It provides zero evidence that Hayes can be moved.
- MJL

Hayes is 30, he is not 40. This is not 30 years ago where a player who is 30 is washed up. Heck I just watched Andy Murray at 36 years old play 5 hours of tennis last night and beat one the best players in the world. Hayes will be 33 when his contract ends, that is not old. Bergeron is 38 and still playing at a good level. Hayes can be traded by the Flyers if they want to with nothing more than covering about $2.5M per season.

When trying to gauge how well defensively a player is doing, you need to look at isolated impact on expected goal differential. This paints a much different picture.

Player xGF xGA E+/-
DeAngelo 27.6 32.9 -5.2
Sanheim 29.2 34.8 -5.5
Provorov 31.1 34.2 -3.1
York 13.5 13.7 -0.2
Risto 23.1 21.6 +1.5
Seeler 23.0 18.3 +4.7
- jd250

So you're saying that Seeler is the Flyers best defenseman.

So you're saying that Seeler is the Flyers best defenseman.

- MJL

When it comes to impact on goal differential .. Yes! Numbers don't lie .. or do they?

Hayes is 30, he is not 40. This is not 30 years ago where a player who is 30 is washed up. Heck I just watched Andy Murray at 36 years old play 5 hours of tennis last night and beat one the best players in the world. Hayes will be 33 when his contract ends, that is not old. Bergeron is 38 and still playing at a good level. Hayes can be traded by the Flyers if they want to with nothing more than covering about $2.5M per season.
- jd250

Hayes is likely to decline. Hayes is not Bergeron.

Have you looked at Boston's cap picture?

When it comes to impact on goal differential .. Yes! Numbers don't lie .. or do they?
- jd250

He should be getting first pair minutes!

So you're saying that Seeler is the Flyers best defenseman.

- MJL

why statistics are only a tool.

The model that had risto as the worst defenseman has provie as the second worst. Is he?

Not defending risto as he is what he is. just pointing out how people manipulate statistics to fit their argument.

why statistics are only a tool.

The model that had risto as the worst defenseman has provie as the second worst. Is he?

Not defending risto as he is what he is. just pointing out how people manipulate statistics to fit their argument.
- Peter Richards

Well said. There are many angles you can look at a player, but to me nothing matters more than watching the player in isolation and seeing how they are playing. Risto this year is playing much better defensively. Charlie O'Connor points out that the Flyers are trying to remold Risto into a solid defensive player, which up to this season he has never been. It is clearly working so far. Risto is better, the numbers show it and the eye-test confirms it. Risto is not taking himself out of position any longer to make a big hit. He is much better with his stick and much more aggressive on the PK. Risto has always been good at stopping plays, but he has also improved his ability to move the puck up and out of the zone. I do not believe Risto will ever be a 40+ point player nor do I believe Risto will ever be worth the $5.1M per season he is being paid. But that is not his fault, Fletcher was dumb enough to offer that to Risto and he smartly accepted it. I do believe that as Risto gets more comfortable playing this way, some of his offense will come back, and I have seen this from him more over the past several games.

Hayes is likely to decline. Hayes is not Bergeron.

Have you looked at Boston's cap picture?
- MJL

Hayes is 30 years old and so far having his best offensive season. There is no evidence he will decline. Yes Hayes is not Bergeron in production, but Bergeron is not alone as a player that can still contribute in his late 30s. Hayes will only be 33 when his current contract ends.

So you're saying that Seeler is the Flyers best defenseman.

- MJL

This also states DeAngelo and Sanheim are the Flyers worst defensive defenseman. Does anyone really want to argue this is not true??

Well said. There are many angles you can look at a player, but to me nothing matters more than watching the player in isolation and seeing how they are playing. Risto this year is playing much better defensively. Charlie O'Connor points out that the Flyers are trying to remold Risto into a solid defensive player, which up to this season he has never been. It is clearly working so far. Risto is better, the numbers show it and the eye-test confirms it. Risto is not taking himself out of position any longer to make a big hit. He is much better with his stick and much more aggressive on the PK. Risto has always been good at stopping plays, but he has also improved his ability to move the puck up and out of the zone. I do not believe Risto will ever be a 40+ point player nor do I believe Risto will ever be worth the $5.1M per season he is being paid. But that is not his fault, Fletcher was dumb enough to offer that to Risto and he smartly accepted it. I do believe that as Risto gets more comfortable playing this way, some of his offense will come back, and I have seen this from him more over the past several games.
- jd250

It isn't working. Ristolainen is the Flyers worst defenseman at 5M a pop. The eye test shows that he has clearly regressed. Ristolainen has never in his entire career been good defensively, including now. His offensive impact has regressed. How is a players level of play not his fault?

With the season half over, at what point will Ristolainen become comfortable playing this way? Cam York came up not that long ago and is drastically out playing and out performing Ristolainen. To the point where he has surpassed Ristolainen on the depth chart. How did he get comfortable so fast? What other players aren't comfrotable yet?

This also states DeAngelo and Sanheim are the Flyers worst defensive defenseman. Does anyone really want to argue this is not true??
- jd250

Yes, Ristolainen is the Flyers worst defensive defenseman. Playing on the 3rd pair at 5.1M a pop.

Hayes is 30 years old and so far having his best offensive season. There is no evidence he will decline. Yes Hayes is not Bergeron in production, but Bergeron is not alone as a player that can still contribute in his late 30s. Hayes will only be 33 when his current contract ends.
- jd250

He is far more likely to decline than not. Again, have you looked at Boston's future cap situation.

He is far more likely to decline than not. Again, have you looked at Boston's future cap situation.
- MJL

almost 22 mil opens this offseason with one notable player in pastrnak to sign

almost 22 mil opens this offseason with one notable player in pastrnak to sign
- Peter Richards

Sounds like Boston knows what they’re doing with the cap. Another reason why they won’t be trading for a player like Kevin Hayes.

Then why do you like Risto lol?
- Tomahawk

I don’t have a problem with him. I don’t think he’s doing great, nor have I ever expected him to be. I think he’s doing fine, I think he’s defending fine. I’m not seeing a player directly responsible for goals against. I’m not gonna miserably kick the same dead horse everyday.

Sounds like Boston knows what they’re doing with the cap. Another reason why they won’t be trading for a player like Kevin Hayes.
- StepfordSam

never said they would, but if they wanted too...they can/could

Sounds like Boston knows what they’re doing with the cap. Another reason why they won’t be trading for a player like Kevin Hayes.
- StepfordSam

Boston won't have 22M open and they have a bunch of players to re-sign or replace. They have a very tight cap situation.

almost 22 mil opens this offseason with one notable player in pastrnak to sign
- Peter Richards

Pastrnak probably signs for half of that space. Then they have about $11 mil to re-sign Bergeron, Krejci (if they don't retire) and Foligno (who they could move on from). Clifton is probably due for a raise. And then Swayman and Frederic are RFAs due for raises. Probably not space to fit Kevin Hayes when all is said and done

Pastrnak probably signs for half of that space. Then they have about $11 mil to re-sign Bergeron, Krejci (if they don't retire) and Foligno (who they could move on from). Clifton is probably due for a raise. And then Swayman and Frederic are RFAs due for raises. Probably not space to fit Kevin Hayes when all is said and done
- TobyFlenderson

It's going to be more like 6.5M to re-sign or replace players that need to be re-signed after re-signing Pasternak

It isn't working. Ristolainen is the Flyers worst defenseman at 5M a pop. The eye test shows that he has clearly regressed. Ristolainen has never in his entire career been good defensively, including now. His offensive impact has regressed. How is a players level of play not his fault?

With the season half over, at what point will Ristolainen become comfortable playing this way? Cam York came up not that long ago and is drastically out playing and out performing Ristolainen. To the point where he has surpassed Ristolainen on the depth chart. How did he get comfortable so fast? What other players aren't comfrotable yet?
- MJL

This is all narrative talk to support your claims. Playing a player on the third pair doesn’t mean they’ve dropped on the depth chart and I think you know better. If John Tortorella for example chose to pair Tony DeAngelo with Nick Seeler on the third pair, do you think these two players work well long term? I don’t. The pairs are about who and what works well together, not depth. The last time Torts chose to play Braun and sit Seeler, the pairs changed to what works to allow Braun to enter the line up. Braun with York. Provorov with Ristolainen.

Boston won't have 22M open and they have a bunch of players to re-sign or replace. They have a very tight cap situation.
- MJL

LMAO it is all their role players. won't take that much to fill out their roster. Patrice and krecji add up to 3.5 mil. look at the other players they have to resign or replace. the core besides this is filled out. minus pasta

It's going to be more like 6.5M to re-sign or replace players that need to be re-signed after re-signing Pasternak
- MJL

Yeah, it wouldn't shock me if he gets paid more than what everyone expects. He could score 60 this year and what a year to do it.

Yeah, it wouldn't shock me if he gets paid more than what everyone expects. He could score 60 this year and what a year to do it.
- TobyFlenderson

Not what I was referring to. 11M for Pasternak is probably ball park.