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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Wrap: Three-Goal Comeback Not Enough vs. Jets; Quick Hits
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ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jan 23 @ 2:37 PM ET
I wonder how many teams will be lining up to trade for a third pairing dman with 4 more years at $5.1m.
- Feanor

Maybe Chuck Fletcher will be working elsewhere next year, there’s one
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jan 23 @ 2:38 PM ET
I was curious to hear Bill's opinion of "insane offer". I find it an interesting discussion. Plenty of time to go back into dead horse topics like Hayes and DeAngelo.
- Trox88

And I’m entertaining this discussion
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Jan 23 @ 2:39 PM ET
Maybe Chuck Fletcher will be working elsewhere next year, there’s one
- ClaudeFather

We all know that’s not going to to happen.
Trox88
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.12.2020

Jan 23 @ 2:41 PM ET
And I’m entertaining this discussion
- ClaudeFather


Let's hear your thoughts. Would you move Laughton before the trade deadline? For what value? Personally, I would move him for a 2nd rd pick this year and another lower round pick the following year.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jan 23 @ 2:46 PM ET
Let's hear your thoughts. Would you move Laughton before the trade deadline? For what value? Personally, I would move him for a 2nd rd pick this year and another lower round pick the following year.
- Trox88

I would keep him at this point. What’s the realistic return? A second rounder like you said? We need some veterans to stay around the team during this crap. I’d prefer to see the team lose games, I’d look at the roster and determine what’s the best way to get top assets in return for players. Provy would be the first one moved in the off season, at the trade deadline if possible. Then I’d look at the forward group. Farabee probably trading Pennie’s on the dollar so not him but move some guys out. I’m not opposed to moving TK depending on the return. 2023 First, second, and a top prospect from a mid pack team preferably. Nothing in the high teens pick wise.
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jan 23 @ 2:47 PM ET
Current cap situation is not great for a potential fourth line guy to make $3M. You have to take this into consideration when talking about a contender adding him. Toronto can’t do it. Tampa can’t do it. Boston has a ton of things to sort out next year which takes them probably out of the runnings. The AVs are a mess.
- ClaudeFather

Not so sure he is a 4th line guy at this point. He has shown to be better than that.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jan 23 @ 2:47 PM ET
Current cap situation is not great for a potential fourth line guy to make $3M. You have to take this into consideration when talking about a contender adding him. Toronto can’t do it. Tampa can’t do it. Boston has a ton of things to sort out next year which takes them probably out of the runnings. The AVs are a mess.
- ClaudeFather


While I will never underestimate NHL GMs' love for grinders, a guy with 3-years of term remaining is a hard sell. Especially considering that Laughts doesn't really bring any standout qualities (besides that one move on SH breakaways lol). If he were 60% on FOs, or a shutdown defender or had Stanley Cup experience, then maybe? But the only team he's likely to be worth $9M over 3 more years is to the Flyers.

Also don't look now but the Avs have won 5 straight
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 23 @ 2:48 PM ET
But is that on Hayes or his linemates? That is the problem with looking at these numbers, because one screw up by any one player hurts everyone on the line.
- jd250


Did you read what I posted? I posted that Hayes and his linemates did not have a good game at 5 on 5.
Trox88
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.12.2020

Jan 23 @ 2:51 PM ET
I would keep him at this point. What’s the realistic return? A second rounder like you said? We need some veterans to stay around the team during this crap. I’d prefer to see the team lose games, I’d look at the roster and determine what’s the best way to get top assets in return for players. Provy would be the first one moved in the off season, at the trade deadline if possible. Then I’d look at the forward group. Farabee probably trading Pennie’s on the dollar so not him but move some guys out. I’m not opposed to moving TK depending on the return. 2023 First, second, and a top prospect from a mid pack team preferably. Nothing in the high teens pick wise.
- ClaudeFather


Thanks for the response, agree with some of your thoughts.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jan 23 @ 2:51 PM ET
While I will never underestimate NHL GMs' love for grinders, a guy with 3-years of term remaining is a hard sell. Especially considering that Laughts doesn't really bring any standout qualities (besides that one move on SH breakaways lol). If he were 60% on FOs, or a shutdown defender or had Stanley Cup experience, then maybe? But the only team he's likely to be worth $9M over 3 more years is to the Flyers.

Also don't look now but the Avs have won 5 straight

- Tomahawk

Yea, it’s a big commitment for a player that’s not really great at anything. the cap is not in a good place and all the contenders have issues of their own to deal with.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 23 @ 2:54 PM ET
The numbers also said the Flyers were better than Chicago by a pretty wide margin the other night. They weren't.

https://www.naturalstattr...eason=20222023&game=20719

- bmeltzer


The numbers don't lie Bill. Sometimes the other team just has better puck luck such as with the 2 deflection goals where nobody on the Flyers really made a mistake. The puck just goes in.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jan 23 @ 2:54 PM ET
Thanks for the response, agree with some of your thoughts.
- Trox88

Never say never though ! As Tomahawk alluded to, the GMs love them some grinding lol
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 23 @ 2:55 PM ET
In last night's game, 5v5 Hayes had a xGF of .33 and xGA of .92 which comes out to a -59% which is bad. On the flip side, Risto 5v5 last night had xGF 0.48 and a xGA of 0.2 for a +28% which is really good. But overall you are correct, by the numbers Hayes did not have a good 5v5 game.
- jd250


Need to look at the numbers across the board, not just one number.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jan 23 @ 2:55 PM ET
Yea, it’s a big commitment for a player that’s not really great at anything. the cap is not in a good place and all the contenders have issues of their own to deal with.
- ClaudeFather


Most of them already have their own Laughton types on the roster and in the pipeline, too.

Laughts isn't some unique flower. The league is full of decent third-line forwards. Most with more favorable contracts for the role.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 23 @ 2:57 PM ET
Other teams will be well aware of his usage and PP points adding to totals. I don’t see many teams lining up to add a bottom 6 player for 4 more years at $3M.
- ClaudeFather


I agree. It's the same with Hayes. Other teams will look at the norm rather than just the one season outlier. Trading players with term with the cap only expected to rise 1M is going to be difficult.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jan 23 @ 2:57 PM ET
Most of them already have their own Laughton types on the roster and in the pipeline, too.

Laughts isn't some unique flower. The league is full of decent third-line forwards. Most with more favorable contracts for the role.

- Tomahawk

Nick Paul was a great add for Tampa, and was a beast in the playoffs .
Sublime55
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.24.2012

Jan 23 @ 3:00 PM ET
Most of them already have their own Laughton types on the roster and in the pipeline, too.

Laughts isn't some unique flower. The league is full of decent third-line forwards. Most with more favorable contracts for the role.

- Tomahawk


Agreed...nice player and good teammate, but his skillset is more easily replaceable than others. I'm also not selling him for pennies on the dollar either.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jan 23 @ 3:00 PM ET
I agree. It's the same with Hayes. Other teams will look at the norm rather than just the one season outlier. Trading players with term with the cap only expected to rise 1M is going to be difficult.
- MJL

$50M Hayes!!! All star! Straight up for McDavid
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jan 23 @ 3:09 PM ET
Need to look at the numbers across the board, not just one number.
- MJL

Of course I agree, but I do find when looking at the impact one player makes, this is a good metric.
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jan 23 @ 3:27 PM ET
I agree. It's the same with Hayes. Other teams will look at the norm rather than just the one season outlier. Trading players with term with the cap only expected to rise 1M is going to be difficult.
- MJL

Hayes is s consistent 40+ point player. Should be a market with 50% retention.
bird_dog_pa
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 07.05.2011

Jan 23 @ 3:32 PM ET
I’m getting tired of hearing about “the numbers”. If a player isn’t constantly turning over the puck and not directly responsible for a goal again most nights, chances are they’re playing well.

I just finished watching “That 90’s Show”. It reminded me of a time where you could talk sports, who is doing what and not concerning ourselves with percentages. If you get FaceTime with me and talk sports and pull out your phone, I’m gonna slap it out of your game.

- SuperSchennBros


That 90’s show is terrible. That is a worse TV show than the Ducks are a bad hockey team.
cdearth23
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Wilkes-Barre, PA
Joined: 08.06.2015

Jan 23 @ 3:45 PM ET
Not sure which I like better.

Tony DeYANDelo
Or
Tony Angelo.
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jan 23 @ 3:54 PM ET
Laughton would be a player a contender would have for multiple seasons at a moderate cost, can play C or W with equal comfort and can be plugged just about anywhere in the lineup even if you need to move him in case of injuries. That would have a lot of value. From the Flyers standpoint, they'd be trading from strength rather than from weakness or at rental cost.

I don't think the Flyers will do it unless they get some insane offer. But he is an example of a non-UFA on the Flyers who'd draw several offers if made available.

- bmeltzer

The reason why I hesitate to move Laughton right now is, we don’t know what the future holds for Sean Couturier and Laughton looks like he’s capable of a Selke like season in future seasons ahead.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 23 @ 3:55 PM ET
Of course I agree, but I do find when looking at the impact one player makes, this is a good metric.
- jd250


You read that somewhere about a week ago, now it's the gold standard. After lecturing numerous times to put down the spreadsheet and watch the game. When looking at xGF% it's simple. Anything at 50% or better is good. Anything below is not good.
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Jan 23 @ 4:34 PM ET
The reason why I hesitate to move Laughton right now is, we don’t know what the future holds for Sean Couturier and Laughton looks like he’s capable of a Selke like season in future seasons ahead.
- SuperSchennBros


He’s a fairly cheap leader who plays and attempts to do things the right way. Despite his new found offensive prowess I don’t think other teams view him that way. He’s the type of guy that the Flyers probably view as a pretty good example of what it is to be a good pro….and they need guys like that to pass that along.
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