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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Wrap: Three-Goal Comeback Not Enough vs. Jets; Quick Hits
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wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jan 24 @ 8:33 AM ET
I think its the same as in any situation, its 2/3rds of what the team owes the player extended over twice the remaining contract length. So after this season Hayes is owed a total of $14.5M. After next season Hayes would be owed $8M according to cap friendly. If the Flyers covered half then the team would owe Hayes $4M. If they buyout Hayes at that point, the team would pay Hayes $2.6M over 4 years, or $650K per year.
- jd250


so if they get for playoffs, then he plays 2024, they buy him out, it would be a 750K cap hit?
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jan 24 @ 8:35 AM ET
That team that catches fire wouldn't be trading for him for just this playoffs. They'd have to want him for 3 more years after this year also. There's going to be options available without term.
- MJL

Not really, a team can get Hayes this season at a pro-rated rate, plus the Flyers will cover salary. Next season Hayes is owed $6.5M and again the team trading for Hayes would pay much less than that. Then in the 24-25 off season the team can buyout Hayes for a very negligible hit to their cap.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 24 @ 8:40 AM ET
Hayes scored 55 points in 71 games in 2018-2019 season, and was on a 53 point pace last season and this season is on a 75 point pace. I know how much you appreciate facts.
- jd250


Pardon me, I missed that one season. Doesn't change that Hayes has scored below 50 points in 8 of 9 seasons in his career. That's how he is going to be viewed. As a 15-20 goal 45 point player. Smart GM's will see this current season as an outlier.
hfc355
Joined: 06.17.2013

Jan 24 @ 8:40 AM ET
He is actually a 50+ point player and there should be a market at 35% retention IMO.
- jd250

He is not a 50+ point player..without checking not sure he ever scored 50+
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jan 24 @ 8:41 AM ET
Pardon me, I missed that one season. Doesn't change that Hayes has scored below 50 points in 8 of 9 seasons in his career. That's how he is going to be viewed. As a 15-20 goal 45 point player. Smart GM's will see this current season as an outlier.
- MJL

Well, lets hope the Flyers are not the only franchise with a dumb GM :-)
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 24 @ 8:44 AM ET
Look around the league at what 2nd and 3rd line players are costing, I am not making up anything, you just refuse to look at the recent contracts. Hayes at $4.5M for 3 years is a bargain, especially given the cap will increase this year and beyond.
- jd250


What am I going to do with you? What did I post. I posted you're making assumptions. The assumptions you're making are that the Flyers are going to retain 50% and that they will basically give him away. Hayes is not the player you think he is. Teams are going to be reluctant to take on that term.
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jan 24 @ 8:45 AM ET
so if they get for playoffs, then he plays 2024, they buy him out, it would be a 750K cap hit?
- wcorvette

This is the calculator for a Kevin Hayes buyout this season: https://www.capfriendly.c...ut-calculator/kevin-hayes

You can see after next season he is only owed $8M, half of that covered by the Flyers in your scenario. So the remaining $4M would be paid by the other team using the same calculations as shown in this link.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 24 @ 8:48 AM ET
I think its the same as in any situation, its 2/3rds of what the team owes the player extended over twice the remaining contract length. So after this season Hayes is owed a total of $14.5M. After next season Hayes would be owed $8M according to cap friendly. If the Flyers covered half then the team would owe Hayes $4M. If they buyout Hayes at that point, the team would pay Hayes $2.6M over 4 years, or $650K per year.
- jd250



LOL, this is not remotely close to being correct. First of all how do you post "over twice the remaining contract length and the come up with 4 years? There would be 3 years of term on Hayes deal left after this season. What is twice of 3 years?
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jan 24 @ 8:49 AM ET
What am I going to do with you? What did I post. I posted you're making assumptions. The assumptions you're making are that the Flyers are going to retain 50% and that they will basically give him away. Hayes is not the player you think he is. Teams are going to be reluctant to take on that term.
- MJL

The other poster suggested the 50% retention, I think the Flyers don't need to cover that much. My assumption about Hayes is he is significantly over-priced for what he brings to a team, we can surely agree on that. However, I and several other pundits either in print or in podcasts about the Flyers agree that if the Flyers get Hayes closer to $4M per season, there will be a market for him. Now if you disagree I understand, but I agree with the others. But don't worry, unless the Flyers go on another double digit losing streak, our jackass GM will be buying at the deadline to try to get that last wildcard spot, so Hayes will be with us for many more games to come.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 24 @ 8:50 AM ET
Not really, a team can get Hayes this season at a pro-rated rate, plus the Flyers will cover salary. Next season Hayes is owed $6.5M and again the team trading for Hayes would pay much less than that. Then in the 24-25 off season the team can buyout Hayes for a very negligible hit to their cap.
- jd250


LOL, every player traded in season, is traded at a pro rated rate. Cap hit is the issue, not salary. Now a team is going to trade for him and then buy him out. Sure! LOL. Your buyout calculations are woefully incorrect.
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jan 24 @ 8:51 AM ET
LOL, this is not remotely close to being correct. First of all how do you post "over twice the remaining contract length and the come up with 4 years? There would be 3 years of term on Hayes deal left after this season. What is twice of 3 years?
- MJL

Again, in the poster's scenario, the team acquiring Hayes would buy him out after next season, not this season. That is what I posted here in reply. You are having a bad day so far.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jan 24 @ 8:52 AM ET
This is the calculator for a Kevin Hayes buyout this season: https://www.capfriendly.c...ut-calculator/kevin-hayes

You can see after next season he is only owed $8M, half of that covered by the Flyers in your scenario. So the remaining $4M would be paid by the other team using the same calculations as shown in this link.

- jd250



I see what you are saying, but the way the cap is, I don't think you are taking his term into enough consideration. With the majority of teams as close to the ceiling as they are, 4 million matters, a LOT.


MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 24 @ 8:53 AM ET
The other poster suggested the 50% retention, I think the Flyers don't need to cover that much. My assumption about Hayes is he is significantly over-priced for what he brings to a team, we can surely agree on that. However, I and several other pundits either in print or in podcasts about the Flyers agree that if the Flyers get Hayes closer to $4M per season, there will be a market for him. Now if you disagree I understand, but I agree with the others. But don't worry, unless the Flyers go on another double digit losing streak, our jackass GM will be buying at the deadline to try to get that last wildcard spot, so Hayes will be with us for many more games to come.
- jd250



There are no pundits that are suggesting what you are suggesting.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 24 @ 8:54 AM ET
Again, in the poster's scenario, the team acquiring Hayes would buy him out after next season, not this season. That is what I posted here in reply. You are having a bad day so far.
- jd250


Either way, the scenario is ridiculously stupid. The calculations you offered are still incorrect.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 24 @ 8:55 AM ET
I see what you are saying, but the way the cap is, I don't think you are taking his term into enough consideration. With the majority of teams as close to the ceiling as they are, 4 million matters, a LOT.
- MBFlyerfan


We went through that with looking at Boston. Where he told me that Boston can easily fit that in.
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jan 24 @ 9:10 AM ET
It's funny talking about trades as fans. Doesn't matter the fan base because we are all the same. In this blog alone there's plenty of trade talk. People say one guy should be traded for X reason and should get Y return while another shoots it down because Z reason.

It's why trades are so difficult to make in the NHL. Players values differ between GMs, team needs, team assets able to pay for said player and of course the cap. Cap kills most movement for various reasons.

Not hating on anyone, just an observation I made and I fully understand how wanting to trade players away is difficult to assess.

- Aaron_85

GM's do. They created the cap mess.
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jan 24 @ 9:11 AM ET
This is the calculator for a Kevin Hayes buyout this season: https://www.capfriendly.c...ut-calculator/kevin-hayes

You can see after next season he is only owed $8M, half of that covered by the Flyers in your scenario. So the remaining $4M would be paid by the other team using the same calculations as shown in this link.

- jd250



what is the impact back to the Flyers?
Phillywhiteout
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: West Chester, PA
Joined: 08.11.2020

Jan 24 @ 9:12 AM ET
The other poster suggested the 50% retention, I think the Flyers don't need to cover that much. My assumption about Hayes is he is significantly over-priced for what he brings to a team, we can surely agree on that. However, I and several other pundits either in print or in podcasts about the Flyers agree that if the Flyers get Hayes closer to $4M per season, there will be a market for him. Now if you disagree I understand, but I agree with the others. But don't worry, unless the Flyers go on another double digit losing streak, our jackass GM will be buying at the deadline to try to get that last wildcard spot, so Hayes will be with us for many more games to come.
- jd250
If Chuckles is a buyer at the deadline they need to send in security and physically remove Chuckles from his office. There is no way he should be doing anything but acquiring more assets. I'm enjoying the fact that they are competitive most nights, but to think that this team is a playoff team in any way shape or form is absolutely delusional.
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Jan 24 @ 9:13 AM ET
It’s like an HBO series with the Flyers right now – a cross between Game of Thrones and The Sopranos. On the one hand, everyone is looking out for their best interest and has no problem working in the shadows to share secrets in hopes that one person’s failure or demise will lead to their own ascension, albeit everybody targets different thrones.

Yet, at the same time, these same people, especially the collective in Voorhees, who are spinning narratives of dissension, discord and deceit from within, will bond together through a sworn allegiance of blood to ensure their circle of trust and power stays small and manageable. They’ll ensure it doesn’t include everyone, even those who are part of the larger organization tasked with working together for the success of the franchise.

But don’t let that circle get too small, because then the others who have been so unwilling to yield authority for so long will put a proverbial bullet in the back of your head. Just ask Ron Hextall how poop went down.

via Flyers presser

It’s also why certain individuals are hell-bent on finding leaks in their organization, looking for rats so they can take care of them just as the mafia does when one of their own agrees to become an informant.

And at the top is Scott, who right now is running the Flyers much in the way Uncle Junior Soprano was running the crime family. He’s in charge, but we all know who’s really pulling the strings.

That’s why Scott needs to switch to more of a Thrones mentality. He needs to plan the Red Wedding. He needs to take out the “network” before they find a way to get to him.

On the day Charlie’s story came out, I spoke with two people who I frequently talk to on the hockey operations side of the organization. These are two individuals who I have built a trusting relationship with and who often share sourced information with me that I then try to figure out the best way to pass on to the fanbase, ensuring all tracks are covered.

I have to admit I was surprised by both when discussing the decision not to communicate what was going on with Provorov to business operations and ownership in advance of Pride night.

One of them said, “They’re on a need-to-know basis with us, and they didn’t need to know until they did.”

The other said, “(They) can be pissed off all (they) want. They don’t run hockey ops.”

A franchise can not operate when all parties aren’t pulling on the same rope. It becomes traitorous on the inside, it looks like a complete and utter poop show from the perch where I sit, not close enough to be involved, but close enough know a lot of what goes on behind the curtain.

But for the fans, for the people who spend their hard-earned money supporting this franchise, and giving their heart and soul to them, although they remain on the outside, all that is left are for there to be feelings of anger, frustration and disappointment.



This franchise is a joke.....but hey at least theyre more entertaining this year

- THE BLACK HAND


Pretty interesting article.
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jan 24 @ 9:13 AM ET
It’s like an HBO series with the Flyers right now – a cross between Game of Thrones and The Sopranos. On the one hand, everyone is looking out for their best interest and has no problem working in the shadows to share secrets in hopes that one person’s failure or demise will lead to their own ascension, albeit everybody targets different thrones.

Yet, at the same time, these same people, especially the collective in Voorhees, who are spinning narratives of dissension, discord and deceit from within, will bond together through a sworn allegiance of blood to ensure their circle of trust and power stays small and manageable. They’ll ensure it doesn’t include everyone, even those who are part of the larger organization tasked with working together for the success of the franchise.

But don’t let that circle get too small, because then the others who have been so unwilling to yield authority for so long will put a proverbial bullet in the back of your head. Just ask Ron Hextall how poop went down.

via Flyers presser

It’s also why certain individuals are hell-bent on finding leaks in their organization, looking for rats so they can take care of them just as the mafia does when one of their own agrees to become an informant.

And at the top is Scott, who right now is running the Flyers much in the way Uncle Junior Soprano was running the crime family. He’s in charge, but we all know who’s really pulling the strings.

That’s why Scott needs to switch to more of a Thrones mentality. He needs to plan the Red Wedding. He needs to take out the “network” before they find a way to get to him.

On the day Charlie’s story came out, I spoke with two people who I frequently talk to on the hockey operations side of the organization. These are two individuals who I have built a trusting relationship with and who often share sourced information with me that I then try to figure out the best way to pass on to the fanbase, ensuring all tracks are covered.

I have to admit I was surprised by both when discussing the decision not to communicate what was going on with Provorov to business operations and ownership in advance of Pride night.

One of them said, “They’re on a need-to-know basis with us, and they didn’t need to know until they did.”

The other said, “(They) can be pissed off all (they) want. They don’t run hockey ops.”

A franchise can not operate when all parties aren’t pulling on the same rope. It becomes traitorous on the inside, it looks like a complete and utter poop show from the perch where I sit, not close enough to be involved, but close enough know a lot of what goes on behind the curtain.

But for the fans, for the people who spend their hard-earned money supporting this franchise, and giving their heart and soul to them, although they remain on the outside, all that is left are for there to be feelings of anger, frustration and disappointment.



This franchise is a joke.....but hey at least theyre more entertaining this year

- THE BLACK HAND


Where is this from? hopefully your not banned already and can answer lol
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jan 24 @ 9:16 AM ET
He's kinda too good to be a 3rd liner though. Maybe you're right. I don't know. Either way it would be expensive. My question is if he's so useful to a contender why are the Flyers wanting to get rid of him and expect anything back? Flyers aren't rebuilding from what I can tell so why would they be shoving him out the door so quickly if he is good enough for a contending team?

If he's a cap dump then wouldn't it cost the flyers more assets to get rid of him?

- Aaron_85

Are coaches and GM's infallible? Just because they want a player gone doesn't mean the player cant play or isn't useful. Is Ghost good enough for a contending team? Was NAK?

Plus who says the Flyers want him gone anyway? Who says they are shoving him out the door? Maybe the coach does though cant say for certain.
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jan 24 @ 9:17 AM ET
He is actually a 50+ point player and there should be a market at 35% retention IMO.
- jd250

No he is not.

https://www.hockeydb.com/...s/pdisplay.php?pid=127775

Yes I believe with retention he has value. How much retention we shall see.
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jan 24 @ 9:23 AM ET
Either way, the scenario is ridiculously stupid. The calculations you offered are still incorrect.
- MJL


so what is the calc? I don't like the idea of retaining or buyouts but if it made sense, I could see a good GM presenting it during the trade discussions. I agree the opposing GM will say Hayes is a 45 point guy, I can see CF saying he is 55 plus, this is the Hayes of now, in his O prime, I think you can make a case that Hayes at 30-31 should maintain similar production, scoring is up across the league. Talking with a playoff team, I think it reasonable to cover Hayes at 30,31 and 32 and the best/worse case scenario. Best, he runs out the contract and stays close to his point production, worse case is you get him for the playoff run and 1 season and consider the buyout as the worse case scenario.


I put buyout at 2024, this is what it came back 2024-25 $4,000,000 $7,142,857 $1,250,000 $1,333,333 $2,583,333 $2,666,667 $4,476,190
2025-26 $4,000,000 $7,142,857 $1,250,000 $1,333,333 $2,583,333 $2,666,667 $4,476,190
2026-27 $0 $0 $0 $1,333,333 $1,333,333 -$1,333,333 $1,333,333
2027-28 $0 $0 $0 $1,333,333 $1,333,333 -$1,333,333 $1,333,333
TOTAL $8,000,000 $14,285,714 $2,500,000 $5,333,333 $7,833,333 $2,666,667 $11,619,046

hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jan 24 @ 9:24 AM ET
If Hayes can put up 45+ points this season and stay healthy and do the same next, then with only 2 years remaining and assuming the Flyers are willing to retain at least 3 million of his cap hit, they could probably move him without adding an asset to the deal.

Moving him now or even this spring, without eating 50% and adding a sweetener, isn’t impossible but it won’t be easy.

Of course the above is under the assumption that Fletcher is replaced by a competent GM. If old Cuckles is making the deal, it won’t be pretty.

- BiggE

He also makes less than his cap hit I believe which helps some teams.

They will get something back if they eat 50% imo. Either way still don't see them moving him as all pure speculation. Still gets good ice time.

speaking of which how does Tony D lead the team in ice time?
THE BLACK HAND
Joined: 06.09.2021

Jan 24 @ 9:25 AM ET
Pretty interesting article.
- landros 2

https://www.crossingbroad...-king-making-network.html


Flyers Stuck in Purgatory Because of Decades Relying on King-Making “Network”


even more so, read the entire article

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