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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Wrap: Three-Goal Comeback Not Enough vs. Jets; Quick Hits
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hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jan 24 @ 9:26 AM ET
What am I going to do with you? What did I post. I posted you're making assumptions. The assumptions you're making are that the Flyers are going to retain 50% and that they will basically give him away. Hayes is not the player you think he is. Teams are going to be reluctant to take on that term.
- MJL


are you jot also making an assumption saying no team will want him?
THE BLACK HAND
Joined: 06.09.2021

Jan 24 @ 9:27 AM ET
Where is this from? hopefully your not banned already and can answer lol
- hello it's me 2050

we'll see how long it takes the CoC Crusader to overstep his role
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jan 24 @ 9:27 AM ET
If Chuckles is a buyer at the deadline they need to send in security and physically remove Chuckles from his office. There is no way he should be doing anything but acquiring more assets. I'm enjoying the fact that they are competitive most nights, but to think that this team is a playoff team in any way shape or form is absolutely delusional.
- Phillywhiteout


agree, any trade should be to fix the cap or a hockey trade, moving out a solid piece for a solid piece in return, getting a center, one that is age appropriate I would do.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Jan 24 @ 9:28 AM ET
If Hayes is bought out in June of 2024, his cap penalty is:
24-25 4.476 million
25-26 4.476 million
26-27 1.333 million
27-28 1.333 miiiion

So even if traded at 50% retention, both teams are looking at 2 years of a cap penalty over 2.2 million followed by 2 years of a much more manageable 667K
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Jan 24 @ 9:32 AM ET
Here are the players that I realistically see the Flyers trading at the deadline and what I think they’ll get back

JVR with 50% retained for a late 2nd
Braun for a 6th
MacEwen for a 6th
Brown for a 7th

And, if Fletcher is the one calling the shots, it wouldn’t surprise me if he extends Zac rather than deals him.
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jan 24 @ 9:34 AM ET
If Hayes is bought out in June of 2024, his cap penalty is:
24-25 4.476 million
25-26 4.476 million
26-27 1.333 million
27-28 1.333 miiiion

So even if traded at 50% retention, both teams are looking at 2 years of a cap penalty over 2.2 million followed by 2 years of a much more manageable 667K

- BiggE



TU, much cleaner
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jan 24 @ 9:35 AM ET
Here are the players that I realistically see the Flyers trading at the deadline and what I think they’ll get back

JVR with 50% retained for a late 2nd
Braun for a 6th
MacEwen for a 6th
Brown for a 7th

And, if Fletcher is the one calling the shots, it wouldn’t surprise me if he extends Zac rather than deals him.

- BiggE



Mac doesn't bother me, I want Brown gone now, guy really adds zero for a team like the Flyers
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 24 @ 9:37 AM ET
so what is the calc? I don't like the idea of retaining or buyouts but if it made sense, I could see a good GM presenting it during the trade discussions. I agree the opposing GM will say Hayes is a 45 point guy, I can see CF saying he is 55 plus, this is the Hayes of now, in his O prime, I think you can make a case that Hayes at 30-31 should maintain similar production, scoring is up across the league. Talking with a playoff team, I think it reasonable to cover Hayes at 30,31 and 32 and the best/worse case scenario. Best, he runs out the contract and stays close to his point production, worse case is you get him for the playoff run and 1 season and consider the buyout as the worse case scenario.



- wcorvette



There isn't a scenario that makes sense where a team will trade for Hayes with the expectation of buying him out after a year or two. A smart GM will look at this year as an outlier. Hayes is statistically past his prime at 30-31. He's never been a consistent 55+ scorer in his career.
TobyFlenderson
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: The Annex, Scranton, PA
Joined: 06.13.2013

Jan 24 @ 9:37 AM ET
Here are the players that I realistically see the Flyers trading at the deadline and what I think they’ll get back

JVR with 50% retained for a late 2nd
Braun for a 6th
MacEwen for a 6th
Brown for a 7th


And, if Fletcher is the one calling the shots, it wouldn’t surprise me if he extends Zac rather than deals him.

- BiggE

Please please please please please
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jan 24 @ 9:43 AM ET
Here are the players that I realistically see the Flyers trading at the deadline and what I think they’ll get back

JVR with 50% retained for a late 2nd
Braun for a 6th
MacEwen for a 6th
Brown for a 7th

And, if Fletcher is the one calling the shots, it wouldn’t surprise me if he extends Zac rather than deals him.

- BiggE


Who would want MacEwen and Brown and why? If the Flyers did move them, who do we play in their places? No snarl to my question, I really want to know.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 24 @ 9:43 AM ET
If Hayes is bought out in June of 2024, his cap penalty is:
24-25 4.476 million
25-26 4.476 million
26-27 1.333 million
27-28 1.333 miiiion

So even if traded at 50% retention, both teams are looking at 2 years of a cap penalty over 2.2 million followed by 2 years of a much more manageable 667K

- BiggE


With the Flyers trading Hayes at 50%, his cap hit would be approximately 3.5M a year. If a team trading for him, buys him out after the 24 season, it would look similar to this. This is a buyout for a player with a 3.4M cap hit with two years left. So the figure for Hayes would be a bit higher.

800,000
1,600,000
-1,100,000
-1,100,000
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jan 24 @ 9:46 AM ET
I don’t think Hayes gets traded at half the cost due to multiple years on his deal. Also if we retain 3.5 million of his deal, we also pay whatever whoever comes the other way because I’m assuming the other team will wanna drop salary too. We may as well just pay Hayes in full here, rather than nearly pay a lesser player both his and Hayes’ contract.

I hope this makes sense
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Jan 24 @ 9:47 AM ET
Who would want MacEwen and Brown and why? If the Flyers did move them, who do we play in their places? No snarl to my question, I really want to know.
- SuperSchennBros

There are GMs always looking for depth grinders at the deadline. As far as replacements, any of the following might get a look:
Desnoyers
Lyksell
Foerster
or, if they don’t want to call up kids, they can just plug in Lacyzinski, Jackson Cates or Bellows. At that point of the season, it really doesn’t matter much.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Jan 24 @ 9:49 AM ET
With the Flyers trading Hayes at 50%, his cap hit would be approximately 3.5M a year. If a team trading for him, buys him out after the 24 season, it would look similar to this. This is a buyout for a player with a 3.4M cap hit with two years left. So the figure for Hayes would be a bit higher.

800,000
1,600,000
-1,100,000
-1,100,000

- MJL


Did you factor in the bonus structure of his contract? My numbers can from the buyout calculator at Capfreindly
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jan 24 @ 9:49 AM ET
There isn't a scenario that makes sense where a team will trade for Hayes with the expectation of buying him out after a year or two. A smart GM will look at this year as an outlier. Hayes is statistically past his prime at 30-31. He's never been a consistent 55+ scorer in his career.
- MJL


No GM will go into thinking buyout but it is a valid point to bring up in a worse case scenario. While they might not bring it up you can be sure they are looking at if they are trading for him. I would argue Hayes is in his O prime, with his style of play, unless injured, Hayes should maintain his play into his early 30's. Keeping in mind a IF you find a team that wants Hayes for a playoff run, they have a NEED they want to fill, that always comes with risk, GM's know this...

Again, I said earlier, finding the partner with the specific need for Hayes is slim
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Jan 24 @ 10:01 AM ET
https://www.crossingbroad.com/2023/01/flyers-stuck-in-purgatory-because-of-decades-relying-on-king-making-network.html


Flyers Stuck in Purgatory Because of Decades Relying on King-Making “Network”


even more so, read the entire article

- THE BLACK HAND


A lot of clubs have a network …..but the the article took the time to go through the Flyers entire history and show there way of hiring was next level Nepotism. The big issue with Dave Scott is he is new to this crowd and not having “any” hockey experience he really has used Clarke, Barber and Holmgren as a safety blanket….then again that’s how old man Snider would have wanted it.
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Jan 24 @ 10:05 AM ET
Mac doesn't bother me, I want Brown gone now, guy really adds zero for a team like the Flyers
- wcorvette


I agree….as long as Mac isn’t over used I don’t mind him at all….Brown should just be a place holder until Laczynski gets healthy or Coots for that matter…maybe then Cates could slide into that 4th line c role.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 24 @ 10:07 AM ET
Did you factor in the bonus structure of his contract? My numbers can from the buyout calculator at Capfreindly
- BiggE


Signing bonus money is excluded from buyouts. My numbers also came from the buyout calculator.
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Jan 24 @ 10:08 AM ET
No GM will go into thinking buyout but it is a valid point to bring up in a worse case scenario. While they might not bring it up you can be sure they are looking at if they are trading for him. I would argue Hayes is in his O prime, with his style of play, unless injured, Hayes should maintain his play into his early 30's. Keeping in mind a IF you find a team that wants Hayes for a playoff run, they have a NEED they want to fill, that always comes with risk, GM's know this...

Again, I said earlier, finding the partner with the specific need for Hayes is slim

- wcorvette



Until the cap jumps with the pandemic fully behind us…it’s pretty tough to move Hayes under any circumstance. Unless you are bring in another bad contract.
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Jan 24 @ 10:10 AM ET
I don’t think Hayes gets traded at half the cost due to multiple years on his deal. Also if we retain 3.5 million of his deal, we also pay whatever whoever comes the other way because I’m assuming the other team will wanna drop salary too. We may as well just pay Hayes in full here, rather than nearly pay a lesser player both his and Hayes’ contract.

I hope this makes sense

- SuperSchennBros


If Hayes is worth 3.5 a year for another team is he not worth that to the Flyers? A team that lacks offence?
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jan 24 @ 10:10 AM ET
Mac doesn't bother me, I want Brown gone now, guy really adds zero for a team like the Flyers
- wcorvette


You couldn't pry players like Laughts, Mac, ND and Brown out of Torts' cold dead hands.

It'll be the pure skill dudes who will voted off the island.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 24 @ 10:11 AM ET
No GM will go into thinking buyout but it is a valid point to bring up in a worse case scenario. While they might not bring it up you can be sure they are looking at if they are trading for him. I would argue Hayes is in his O prime, with his style of play, unless injured, Hayes should maintain his play into his early 30's. Keeping in mind a IF you find a team that wants Hayes for a playoff run, they have a NEED they want to fill, that always comes with risk, GM's know this...

Again, I said earlier, finding the partner with the specific need for Hayes is slim

- wcorvette



I can with complete confidence state that any GM looking at trading for Hayes is not looking at a future buyout. Any thought of having to buyout the player in the future would preclude a GM from wanting to trade for the player.

Hayes is statistically past his prime years. That doesn't mean that he won't continue to be a good player but I still maintain that a smart GM would consider his increased scoring rate this year to be an outlier and look at him as he has been his entire career.


hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jan 24 @ 10:55 AM ET
Here are the players that I realistically see the Flyers trading at the deadline and what I think they’ll get back

JVR with 50% retained for a late 2nd
Braun for a 6th
MacEwen for a 6th
Brown for a 7th

And, if Fletcher is the one calling the shots, it wouldn’t surprise me if he extends Zac rather than deals him.

- BiggE

Why wouldn't he be the one calling the shots? There has been zero indication he will not be.

Do not see a market for the 4th line scrubs unless a multi player deal for contract purposes.
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jan 24 @ 10:55 AM ET
we'll see how long it takes the CoC Crusader to overstep his role
- THE BLACK HAND

corrosion of conformity?
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jan 24 @ 10:56 AM ET
There isn't a scenario that makes sense where a team will trade for Hayes with the expectation of buying him out after a year or two. A smart GM will look at this year as an outlier. Hayes is statistically past his prime at 30-31. He's never been a consistent 55+ scorer in his career.
- MJL

When is ex selke past his prime?
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