The key is winning the critical draw in the defensive zone with 30 seconds left and 3-2 lead. That's not a stat that's easily quantifiable with analytics but that guy exists.

And he's not on the Sabres team currently
- Hank Balling

Can we name one? Is there last minute in a 3-2 game faceoff stats we can reference?

Again, if you can get a guy that checks a ton of other box and is at 53% instead of 47%, great. But the faceoff is still a coinflip, even with those odds. If you worry too much about that box and not all of the other boxes then you get a guy like Eakin that killed you for the first 59 minutes of the game and that certainly isn't worth the miniscule bump in faceoff win percentage.
- Slump Buster

I totally get that it's an anti analytics position and largely unquantifiable. I still think there's merit to employing a guy who you can deploy for a critical faceoff when the chips are down and the game is on the line.

Can we name one? Is there last minute in a 3-2 game faceoff stats we can reference?
- sbroads24

No.

I get it. I largely try to base my opinions on data that can be backed up. This is a leap-of-faith position

The Sabres have plenty of players capable of taking important faceoffs.
- Hatboro_Swords

They do indeed.
.
.
.
.
.

Just nobody who wins them.

No.

I get it. I largely try to base my opinions on data that can be backed up. This is a leap-of-faith position
- Hank Balling

Im legitimately asking though, is there anyone who’s been known to always win key draws in those situations?

No.

I get it. I largely try to base my opinions on data that can be backed up. This is a leap-of-faith position
- Hank Balling

And. And. And.

BJUSTEAD!!!

I think they still need a Goose/ROR/Lazar/Eakin faceoff guy who can also play meaningful 3rd line minutes. That's not Jost, even if he has brought a lot of good things to Mitts and Olo.

And just to be clear - Eakin sucked. I'm talking purely about his faceoff skill but with someone who is at least decent defensively
- Hank Balling

Oh for sure.

Im legitimately asking though, is there anyone who’s been known to always win key draws in those situations?
- sbroads24

I would point again to Goose/Lazar/ROR/Eakin

Lazar used to go out in overtime, win the draw and then go to the bench. These guys exist.

Im legitimately asking though, is there anyone who’s been known to always win key draws in those situations?
- sbroads24

Vermette in Anaheim is the only guy I can think of that won an obscene amount of faceoffs, at least in the playoffs anyway. But I think they made a rule so you can't cheat like he did anymore

I would point again to Goose/Lazar/ROR/Eakin

Lazar used to go out in overtime, win the draw and then go to the bench. These guys exist.
- Hank Balling

Okposo did that for them last game. Problem solved!

Okposo did that for them last game. Problem solved!
- Lunaion

It's an indefensible position but one I will maintain

Sure do.

#1 offense in the league before JJ and the Buster have hit their stride. I don't think they need an $8-10m winger.

They need a top-4 dman and an effective faceoff depth forward with some grit
- Hank Balling

We're thinking Tage is a 60-60 guy going forward?

Tuch, Skinner and Cozens are all 80 to 90 point players going forward?

Dahlin is a 100 point player going forward?

You can never have enough offense, and planning on the remarkable output from all 5 of the above to be the norm going forward seems tenuous.

I'd rather not bank on that.

They need one more top end top 6 forward if they really want to be a cup contender.

It's an indefensible position but one I will maintain
- Hank Balling

If Jost didn't feel like a sure thing to bring back, I'd be with you. It's something I wanted last summer.

No.

I get it. I largely try to base my opinions on data that can be backed up. This is a leap-of-faith position
- Hank Balling

Sure Patrice Bergeron has taken a few

We're thinking Tage is a 60-60 guy going forward?

Tuch, Skinner and Cozens are all 80 to 90 point players going forward?

Dahlin is a 100 point player going forward?

You can never have enough offense, and planning on the remarkable output from all 5 of the above to be the norm going forward seems tenuous.

I'd rather not bank on that.

They need one more top end top 6 forward if they really want to be a cup contender.
- kingcong39

I'm at the point where I want help for Cozens sooner rather than later.

I'm at the point where I want help for Cozens sooner rather than later.
- Lunaion

Yes

Can we name one? Is there last minute in a 3-2 game faceoff stats we can reference?
- sbroads24

24- I thought it was crazy the past few years
"Face offs don't matter"

I think you kinda have a point though. Obviously when the games close and you have a key defensive zone ( 1 or 2 times a game) you want to win the faceoff and gain control.

Otherwise possession matters , but I'd rather have a good all around center , then a faceoff specialist.

I'm at the point where I want help for Cozens sooner rather than later.
- Lunaion

Seems like you're kinda rushing things a bit.

Who would you include from the prospect pool?
Rosen seems expendable

Those kids could seriously build continuity for a decade.

We're thinking Tage is a 60-60 guy going forward?

Tuch, Skinner and Cozens are all 80 to 90 point players going forward?

Dahlin is a 100 point player going forward?

You can never have enough offense, and planning on the remarkable output from all 5 of the above to be the norm going forward seems tenuous.

I'd rather not bank on that.

They need one more top end top 6 forward if they really want to be a cup contender.
- kingcong39

Do you thinks it's possible that Tuch, Skinner, Cozens slip to 70 but Quinn, Peterka jump to 50?

Seems like you're kinda rushing things a bit.

Who would you include from the prospect pool?
Rosen seems expendable

Those kids could seriously build continuity for a decade.
- Boss34

VO
Mitts
Quinn
JJ
Kulich
Rosen
Savoie
Ostlund

Trade for Meier and you only need 3. 2 or 3 for 1 trades feel inevitable.

Sure Patrice Bergeron has taken a few
- Buff36

Patrice Bergeron is a HOFer if he takes 10,000 more faceoffs and loses them all.

VO
Mitts
Quinn
JJ
Kulich
Rosen
Savoie
Ostlund

Trade for Meier and you only need 3. 2 or 3 for 1 trades feel inevitable.
- Lunaion

I'd hate to see both quinn and JJ go, together.

Mitts and olo definitely seem like the roster guys to move. I would think a team would immediately flip olo.

Gotta give to get though, I agree

Patrice Bergeron is a HOFer if he takes 10,000 more faceoffs and loses them all.
- Wetbandit1

Yes he is and I am sure he has taken a lot of important faceoffs and won

I'd hate to see both quinn and JJ go, together.

Mitts and olo definitely seem like the roster guys to move. I would think a team would immediately flip olo.

Gotta give to get though, I agree
- Boss34

Tough to read, but they liked 6 enough to draft them.

If you could build a deal around Mitts + a 1st, you'd have to consider it.

Can we name one? Is there last minute in a 3-2 game faceoff stats we can reference?
- sbroads24

It is an interesting topic, and I think the last quote in this post illustrates the dilemma... measuring the wrong thing...FO% correlated to Win games...need to look at it slightly differently.

I did see Stamkos win a draw the other night in the O-zone and it went straight to Kucherov (yes, I was wearing my Kuch jersey Richard)...who then popped in into the net.

https://www.the-rink.com/...erts-say-faceoffs-matter/

"But first, let’s climb into the Wayback Machine and set the dial for June 2015, the third periods of Games 5 and 6 of the Stanley Cup Finals between the Hawks and the Lightning, when Jonathan Toews, Marcus Kruger, Andrew Shaw and (especially) Antoine Vermette essentially stymied the Lightning’s comeback hopes in one goal games by winning draw after critical draw. And if you don’t recall, I suggest you go back and watch those latter stages of those games, or read Tampa coach Jon Cooper’s post-game comments."


https://www.seattletimes....d-why-they-are-important/

[I]"There has long been debate about strong faceoff success correlating to winning games, with studies failing to find links. But a research paper by staffers from the Sportlogiq data analytics company, presented at the 2019 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, concluded that those studies examined the wrong thing.

Rather than linking faceoffs to wins, the paper’s study of 71,000 faceoffs from 2017-18 concluded it’s better to examine correlation between winning them and succeeding in certain situations. Namely, it found value in winning faceoffs, also called draws, cleanly in the offensive zone and directing pucks to high-danger areas.

“When a player wins the draw cleanly,” the study stated, “his team can execute drawn-up set plays with greater ease and will therefore have better chances of catching the defending team off-guard or out of position.”

A clean win in the offensive zone led to a shot or scoring chance 38.6% of the time compared with 30.3% for wins that weren’t clean. Clean wins directed back to the inside of the faceoff circle led to shots 43.6% of the time compared with 32.1% when teammates fought for a loose puck."