It will come down to goaltending
Vasilevskiy vs Samsonov
🤨
- mr.sir

You mean just like last year when it was a matter of vasi vs Campbell, Campbell put up better numbers and vasi still won?

It will come down to goaltending
Vasilevskiy vs Samsonov
🤨
- mr.sir

Leafs made Vassy look average for six games last year. Leafs are stronger, Tampa is weaker. I have no worries about round 1.

Just heard Dubies interview. Emphasis on adding "compete".

So if one guy is getting dropped to make cap room (~1.1M) who we cutting/trading?

I don't see him dropping a D.

Sorry ol' Garnish ...I like the Giraffe but it sounds like Dubas is leaning into keeping the high energy/compete types. I think that leaves Engvall out.

Maybe ...

I am only concerned for Samsonovs health. Starter or not or how many games doesn't matter. The blues didn't go trade for a legit goalie when Binnington was hot.
- Aaron_85

I wouldn't be using any free capital on a goalie - there's just no one you're going to actually get that we could fit in what little space we could make who is going to surpass what we're getting.

If we think back to the start of this whole this - the acquisition of Freddie in 2016-17, and look at all of the goalies we've had in that time since who have played over 10 games, we've had some great performances and some not-so great.

As I ramble on about, I love the GSAx stat. Just to sort of level this out, what I did was put their actual GAA up against their expected GAA and then calculate the net difference to get the idea of a GSAx per game. This is what I see:

In 17-18 McElhinney had an avg GSAx of 0.52 per game (xGAA of 2.66)
In 22-23 Samsonov had an avg GSAx of 0.48 per game (xGAA of 2.81)
In 16-17 Andersen had an avg GSAx of 0.29 per game (xGAA of 2.97)
In 16-17 McElhinney had an avg GSAx of 0.24 per game (xGAA of 3.08)
In 20-21 Campbell had an avg GSAx of 0.23 per game (xGAA of 2.33)
In 22-23 Murray had an avg GSAx of 0.17 per game (xGAA of 2.86)
In 17-18 Andersen had an avg GSAx of 0.16 per game (xGAA of 2.96)
In 18-19 Andersen had an avg GSAx of 0.14 per game (xGAA of 2.9)
In 22-23 Kallgren had an avg GSAx of -0.06 per game (xGAA of 2.65)
In 21-22 Campbell had an avg GSAx of -0.17 per game (xGAA of 2.44)
In 19-20 Andersen had an avg GSAx of -0.21 per game (xGAA of 2.66)
In 20-21 Andersen had an avg GSAx of -0.47 per game (xGAA of 2.5)
In 18-19 Sparks had an avg GSAx of -0.5 per game (xGAA of 2.66)
In 19-20 Hutchinson had an avg GSAx of -0.53 per game (xGAA of 3.06)
In 21-22 Kallgren had an avg GSAx of -0.58 per game (xGAA of 2.68)
In 21-22 Mrazek had an avg GSAx of -0.74 per game (xGAA of 2.58)

Our goaltending has been superb. Samsonov's .48 is superb, sitting 9th among goalies who have played at least 25 games. It puts him in good company with Vasilevskiy (.51).

It will come down to goaltending
Vasilevskiy vs Samsonov
🤨
- mr.sir

Always, usually, does.

But knowing how close last year was with Vasilevskiy vs Jack Mental Jenga Campbell with a less defensively talented team, I have hope. Different hope than every other year.

Just heard Dubies interview. Emphasis on adding "compete".

So if one guy is getting dropped to make cap room (~1.1M) who we cutting/trading?

I don't see him dropping a D.

Sorry ol' Garnish ...I like the Giraffe but it sounds like Dubas is leaning into keeping the high energy/compete types. I think that leaves Engvall out.

Maybe ...
- The Law

I would agree except that he also said how "versatile" Lafferty is and that he "plays center and wing" and is signed for another season after this, seems more like a Kerfoot replacement.

Kerfoot or Engvall are out, maybe both, should be both cuz (frank) the Giraffe. And, if Dubas really wants to recoup picks I could see him doing both.

Just heard Dubies interview. Emphasis on adding "compete".

So if one guy is getting dropped to make cap room (~1.1M) who we cutting/trading?

I don't see him dropping a D.

Sorry ol' Garnish ...I like the Giraffe but it sounds like Dubas is leaning into keeping the high energy/compete types. I think that leaves Engvall out.

Maybe ...
- The Law

Who would you rather have - Engvall or Kerfoot, and why?

I think a lot of people hate Engvall because he's 6'5 and doesn't smush people and that makes them angry. He is not a physical player and he does do too many passive things on the ice - at times it feels like he's not engaged.

I am in the lot of people that hate Kerfoot because I am sick and tired of watching him lose every battle he's ever in. I say - and do believe - he's fast and he's a decent passer - both better than Engvall - but due to his inability to win a battle or check effectively in any capacity, I'm not sure how we justify putting him in a defensive role.

I couldn't - honestly, begin to answer who is even better. I think Kerfoot is about to lose his 4th line job to Lafferty, but if Engvall keeps pissing off Keefe - and it seems a daily thing now - he likely loses his 3rd line job to Kerfoot.

I said earlier in the thread that it really comes down to this: If Keefe is benching Engvall because he knows there's more there and he's trying to get to it, then Kerfoot is out the door. If Keefe is benching Engvall because he's sick of watching him passively fail to engage or check, then Engvall is out the door.

Nice trade

Always, usually, does.

But knowing how close last year was with Vasilevskiy vs Jack Mental Jenga Campbell with a less defensively talented team, I have hope. Different hope than every other year.
- underhill14

Id still love Saros. Cant hurt having a Vezina worthy level goalie.

Yes and Murray did it twice. Aaron mentioned Binnington, there's another one. There's room for an argument that more teams have won with a mid tier goalie than have won with a legit stud like Vasilevsky in the last 10-15 years.

Could probably count Quick during his runs in the Vasilevsky category, is there really anyone else? Where's the best goaltenders in the game been?

Usually if you have to fully rely on a stud goaltender, you have more problems than that stud goaltender will be able to fix.
- joel878

Yeah you’re 100% correct on this one.

If the cup was won based off a “stud” goaltender they’d be giving out the vezina at the same bloody time as the cup.

I wouldn't be using any free capital on a goalie - there's just no one you're going to actually get that we could fit in what little space we could make who is going to surpass what we're getting.

If we think back to the start of this whole this - the acquisition of Freddie in 2016-17, and look at all of the goalies we've had in that time since who have played over 10 games, we've had some great performances and some not-so great.

As I ramble on about, I love the GSAx stat. Just to sort of level this out, what I did was put their actual GAA up against their expected GAA and then calculate the net difference to get the idea of a GSAx per game. This is what I see:

In 17-18 McElhinney had an avg GSAx of 0.52 per game (xGAA of 2.66)
In 22-23 Samsonov had an avg GSAx of 0.48 per game (xGAA of 2.81)
In 16-17 Andersen had an avg GSAx of 0.29 per game (xGAA of 2.97)
In 16-17 McElhinney had an avg GSAx of 0.24 per game (xGAA of 3.08)
In 20-21 Campbell had an avg GSAx of 0.23 per game (xGAA of 2.33)
In 22-23 Murray had an avg GSAx of 0.17 per game (xGAA of 2.86)
In 17-18 Andersen had an avg GSAx of 0.16 per game (xGAA of 2.96)
In 18-19 Andersen had an avg GSAx of 0.14 per game (xGAA of 2.9)
In 22-23 Kallgren had an avg GSAx of -0.06 per game (xGAA of 2.65)
In 21-22 Campbell had an avg GSAx of -0.17 per game (xGAA of 2.44)
In 19-20 Andersen had an avg GSAx of -0.21 per game (xGAA of 2.66)
In 20-21 Andersen had an avg GSAx of -0.47 per game (xGAA of 2.5)
In 18-19 Sparks had an avg GSAx of -0.5 per game (xGAA of 2.66)
In 19-20 Hutchinson had an avg GSAx of -0.53 per game (xGAA of 3.06)
In 21-22 Kallgren had an avg GSAx of -0.58 per game (xGAA of 2.68)
In 21-22 Mrazek had an avg GSAx of -0.74 per game (xGAA of 2.58)

Our goaltending has been superb. Samsonov's .48 is superb, sitting 9th among goalies who have played at least 25 games. It puts him in good company with Vasilevskiy (.51).
- Monkeypunk

So what you're saying is should have kept McaSave and gone on a run sooner?

Also, I think I've said it before the logistics of a tender coming in without shipping out Murray is super difficult. Anyone worth trading for, say Reimer or even Saros, has to have the cap room to make it work (so murray trade or carrying 3 goalies for some reason?) or has to pass through waivers. They aren't getting through waivers. So unless Murray is traded it really isn't happening.

McJesus 50

Even watching the last few games with RoR and Acciari, especially last night against the Cracken, they seemed really solid thru most of the game and when they weren't Sammy bailed them out.

I'm assuming Lafferty and McCabe have enough time to get to Edmonton and we should see the full roster in action starting Wednesday.

Looking forward to watching the team gel before the playoffs. I might actually start getting ZZ level excited.
- underhill14

Dubas said they were on the way to Seattle and I think they were heading out with the team. I think Dubas and team spent the day in Seattle before heading to Edmonton.

Who would you rather have - Engvall or Kerfoot, and why?

I think a lot of people hate Engvall because he's 6'5 and doesn't smush people and that makes them angry. He is not a physical player and he does do too many passive things on the ice - at times it feels like he's not engaged.

I am in the lot of people that hate Kerfoot because I am sick and tired of watching him lose every battle he's ever in. I say - and do believe - he's fast and he's a decent passer - both better than Engvall - but due to his inability to win a battle or check effectively in any capacity, I'm not sure how we justify putting him in a defensive role.

I couldn't - honestly, begin to answer who is even better. I think Kerfoot is about to lose his 4th line job to Lafferty, but if Engvall keeps pissing off Keefe - and it seems a daily thing now - he likely loses his 3rd line job to Kerfoot.

I said earlier in the thread that it really comes down to this: If Keefe is benching Engvall because he knows there's more there and he's trying to get to it, then Kerfoot is out the door. If Keefe is benching Engvall because he's sick of watching him passively fail to engage or check, then Engvall is out the door.
- Monkeypunk

Kerfoot, Engvall and I could see Kampf walking to UFA this summer anyway. If Dubas is still GM he has seen enough of them to let them walk and sign somewhere else for more money they he'd pay (good for them. Get your money).
If a new GM comes in then he likely wants to see the old guard who couldn't get it done leave and bring in his own.

Anyway you slice it, a GM of the Leafs come summer has a good core in place and can make moves to change up the look of the team. I mean if Dubas can do it in season and not remove anyone from the active roster, then summer should be a breeze.

Dubas said they were on the way to Seattle and I think they were heading out with the team. I think Dubas and team spent the day in Seattle before heading to Edmonton.
- Aaron_85

Which forward do you think sits Wednesday?

Normally I would think Keefe would be looking to try what the playoff starting lineup would be but I could see him being asked to play the guy Dubas might move.

Or do you think they’ll do that against Calgary?

Whatever happens, if anything, will likely be tomorrow or on the deadline day because I can’t see it being Wednesday or Thursday since those are game days… well maybe late on Thursday after the game.. I’m sure you get what I’m saying

Just heard Dubies interview. Emphasis on adding "compete".

So if one guy is getting dropped to make cap room (~1.1M) who we cutting/trading?

I don't see him dropping a D.

Sorry ol' Garnish ...I like the Giraffe but it sounds like Dubas is leaning into keeping the high energy/compete types. I think that leaves Engvall out.

Maybe ...
- The Law

Then again, like he said, somebody could get injured.

Kerfoot, Engvall and I could see Kampf walking to UFA this summer anyway. If Dubas is still GM he has seen enough of them to let them walk and sign somewhere else for more money they he'd pay (good for them. Get your money).
If a new GM comes in then he likely wants to see the old guard who couldn't get it done leave and bring in his own.

Anyway you slice it, a GM of the Leafs come summer has a good core in place and can make moves to change up the look of the team. I mean if Dubas can do it in season and not remove anyone from the active roster, then summer should be a breeze.
- Aaron_85

I could see Dubas keeping Kampf so long as the contract ends up being pretty much the exact same thing as it is currently.

However I think it will be Kampf’s decision to sign it prior to July 1 or risk having Dubas see someone he likes a little better/cheaper.

Which forward do you think sits Wednesday?

Normally I would think Keefe would be looking to try what the playoff starting lineup would be but I could see him being asked to play the guy Dubas might move.

Or do you think they’ll do that against Calgary?

Whatever happens, if anything, will likely be tomorrow or on the deadline day because I can’t see it being Wednesday or Thursday since those are game days… well maybe late on Thursday after the game.. I’m sure you get what I’m saying
- Dozzer

I think it's possibly kerfoot sitting

Which forward do you think sits Wednesday?

Normally I would think Keefe would be looking to try what the playoff starting lineup would be but I could see him being asked to play the guy Dubas might move.

Or do you think they’ll do that against Calgary?

Whatever happens, if anything, will likely be tomorrow or on the deadline day because I can’t see it being Wednesday or Thursday since those are game days… well maybe late on Thursday after the game.. I’m sure you get what I’m saying
- Dozzer

Good point.

I would like to see the playoff line up but if Dubas is trading a player or two away he would want to showcase them some more and give the other guys practice time. Makes sense Doz.

If Lafferty sits its Kerfoot or Engvall. If McCabe sits it's Holl. If both sit then Dubas is looking for the best deal for 1 of the 3.

To summarize, I don't have a (frank)ing clue.

Bunting/Matthews/Marner
Knies/Tavares/Nylander
Engvall/O’Rielly/Kerfoot
Lafferty/Kampf/Acciari

Rielly/Brodie
McCabe/Liljegren
Giordano/Timmins

Sammy
Murray

Team looking pretty good.

I could see Dubas keeping Kampf so long as the contract ends up being pretty much the exact same thing as it is currently.

However I think it will be Kampf’s decision to sign it prior to July 1 or risk having Dubas see someone he likes a little better/cheaper.
- Dozzer

That too. Definitely think that's a possibility.

So what you're saying is should have kept McaSave and gone on a run sooner?

Also, I think I've said it before the logistics of a tender coming in without shipping out Murray is super difficult. Anyone worth trading for, say Reimer or even Saros, has to have the cap room to make it work (so murray trade or carrying 3 goalies for some reason?) or has to pass through waivers. They aren't getting through waivers. So unless Murray is traded it really isn't happening.
- Aaron_85

I think we all know now that McSavey was the way to go, but at the time it was a choice of losing Sparks to waivers or giving his his earned opportunity.

But yeah, the pure logistics do make it near impossible. I will say that Murray has played his way back into having trade value - but his cap hit would still be an issue for many teams given his relative lack of health and a lack of consistency throughout the year.

I think we all know now that McSavey was the way to go, but at the time it was a choice of losing Sparks to waivers or giving his his earned opportunity.

But yeah, the pure logistics do make it near impossible. I will say that Murray has played his way back into having trade value - but his cap hit would still be an issue for many teams given his relative lack of health and a lack of consistency throughout the year.
- Monkeypunk

I believe in Murray

Kerfoot, Engvall and I could see Kampf walking to UFA this summer anyway. If Dubas is still GM he has seen enough of them to let them walk and sign somewhere else for more money they he'd pay (good for them. Get your money).
If a new GM comes in then he likely wants to see the old guard who couldn't get it done leave and bring in his own.

Anyway you slice it, a GM of the Leafs come summer has a good core in place and can make moves to change up the look of the team. I mean if Dubas can do it in season and not remove anyone from the active roster, then summer should be a breeze.
- Aaron_85

Well, my point was that we're $1m over when Murray returns from LTIR so someone is leaving by Thursday one way or the other. Who would you trade was really my question. Kampf I think they'd definitely want for the playoff run. Engvall was a no-show last year, so that could be his queue to exit stage right. I guess we'll see.

Bunting/Matthews/Marner
Knies/Tavares/Nylander
Engvall/O’Rielly/Kerfoot
Lafferty/Kampf/Acciari

Rielly/Brodie
McCabe/Liljegren
Giordano/Timmins

Sammy
Murray

Team looking pretty good.
- Mr.President

Did Jarnkrok ZAR and Sandin get traded?