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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Leafs Odds Drop After Free Agent Exodus; Marlies Schedule Released
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winsix
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Henry Hudson's Fairchild 24 South Porcupine
Joined: 04.03.2016

Jul 12 @ 10:23 PM ET
I would say for Nylander to be worth 9 million, he'd have to bring an extra element to his game, even if it was occasionally playing on the PK.

And the same goes for Tavares and Matthews. Tavares use to kill penalties in Long Island and he's one of the best FO winners the Leafs got. Don't think I've ever seen him take a regular PK shift. Same goes for Matthews. Matthews is supposed to be a fantastic defensive forward and yet never plays on the PK.

The Leafs PK usually sucks in the playoffs. It wouldn't be the end of the world for these guys to play on the PK like Sundin and Mogilny use to do. And actually be a threat to score goals while they do it too.

People can talk poop about Marner but of the four guys, he's the only one who at least attempts to do something other than score to earn his pay.



If Nylander settles at 9, Tavares at 11 and Matthews at 13; these guys have to bring more to the team other than scoring goals and points.

I would say Nylander is worth 8.88 AAV, absolute max 9. Matthews can get slightly more than MacKinnon at 13.34. Anymore than that and somebody has to get moved, it's already too much of a crunch with 70% of the cap spent on forwards and 40% on four forwards.

Ideally, I'd like to see Matthews and Nylander intentionally take a pay cut which leads to Marner doing the same. Matthews at 12.5, Nylander at 8 and Marner staying at his current 11 saves the Leafs enough money to bring in at least one more quality player down the line.

- Rare_Jewel



Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Jul 12 @ 10:29 PM ET
Serious question - where do Toronto fans stand on another Toronto area expansion team? Not the likelihood, but your personal opinions on whether you would be in favor or not.
- Quetzalcoatl

It would be so much fun.

10 years ago, I would tell you there was no chance of it happening.

But the MLSE ownership structure is interesting, and getting interestingerer.

It’s now a longshot, but at least possible.
Rare_Jewel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 05.31.2021

Jul 12 @ 10:30 PM ET
It would be so much fun.

10 years ago, I would tell you there was no chance of it happening.

But the MLSE ownership structure is interesting, and getting interestingerer.

It’s now a longshot, but at least possible.

- Atomic Wedgie


Rogers owns one team, Bell owns the other as a condition of the buy-out.

One of the owners uses the buy-out money to buy the Coyotes to relocate.

Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Jul 12 @ 10:42 PM ET
What’s the biggest drop in points from season to season for a team in league history?

I imagine the Bruins are going to be up there next season.
Big23Questions
Detroit Red Wings
Location: All Ontario Scientist (Masters Level III)
Joined: 04.11.2018

Jul 12 @ 11:01 PM ET
1. You are entitled to your opinion - as am I - so I respectfully disagree with your opinion. Stating an opinion as a logical choice - is why I called BS.

2. The Leafs are already improved, and significantly so. Bunting, Holl and ZAR have been replaced by Domi, Bertuzzi and Klingberg.

3. Gilmour was unhappy with a contract and forced a trade that the Flames would later regret.

4. There is a chance that the Leafs cannot sign Nylander to a reasonable deal - then they will have to make a trade. One I believe they will be very hard pressed to win.

- winsix




1. Alright man - just typically calling bs on something means something other than disagreeing it’s not believing

2. Not improved enough to me and going forward just not smart to have all that cash upfront in similar type players.

3. Ok. Not sure why that comment but perhaps that’s what happened. Who knows and I’m not sore the link.

4. If he wants 10+ I wouldn’t come to terms on a new deal with him either but I wouldn’t just trade to trade which I thing you would agree. The winning thing I stated last post that it’s about making your team better not who has the better player in the deal. There would be very very little movement of gms thought like that
Nasty_Duck
Boston Bruins
Location: ON
Joined: 06.20.2012

Jul 12 @ 11:21 PM ET
Leafs don't have the luxury of waiting on this. This said, letting him walk is an option, just not a likely one IMO.

As I pointed out he's shown progression and is 27 years old. The other players mentioned were top six players from your favorite team - that's WTF they have to do with it. Those players, two of which are perenial all-stars the other a first overall pick never managed to do what Nylander accomplished last season. In a contract negotiation you pay for what has been accomplished and what you can expect. With a pending UFA you also have to be mindful of what other teams would be willing to pay.

- winsix


Oh my.

We were talking about 40-goal scorers. So they have nothing to do with the conversation.

And you want to use Marchand as a comparator?
Marchand's Cap-hit is 6.125M and he's had 5 seasons of 80+, one of which was 100 pts. All this while being one of the best pk players in the league. (most SHG of any active player)

You are comparing apples to... potatoes.

21peter
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Peter I Island
Joined: 11.18.2014

Jul 13 @ 1:41 AM ET
It would be so much fun.

10 years ago, I would tell you there was no chance of it happening.

But the MLSE ownership structure is interesting, and getting interestingerer.

It’s now a longshot, but at least possible.

- Atomic Wedgie

spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 13 @ 6:02 AM ET
I am having difficulty finding a common theme in the priority for Leaf fans.

Normally, in the summer, there are great discussions. Fans line up on both sides of an issue. Who to trade? Who to sign? How much? Folks might not agree but there has always been strong opinion on both sides of every discussion.

This year is measurably different. There are some significant player moves already completed. More to come. Yet, I find fan commentary more tentative, uncertain, even guarded.

Are fans more nervous? Or, are they fatigued by the drama around Dubas and all the front office movement since?

Am I wrong, but have fans Leaf fans just stepped back and adopted a cautious wait and see attitude? Nothing wrong here. But it is different from previous summers.
winsix
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Henry Hudson's Fairchild 24 South Porcupine
Joined: 04.03.2016

Jul 13 @ 7:35 AM ET
Oh my.

We were talking about 40-goal scorers. So they have nothing to do with the conversation.

And you want to use Marchand as a comparator?
Marchand's Cap-hit is 6.125M and he's had 5 seasons of 80+, one of which was 100 pts. All this while being one of the best pk players in the league. (most SHG of any active player)

You are comparing apples to... potatoes.


- Nasty_Duck


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iV1-ivlFLQk&t=34s



winsix
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Henry Hudson's Fairchild 24 South Porcupine
Joined: 04.03.2016

Jul 13 @ 7:36 AM ET
I am having difficulty
- spatso


FIXED
senstroll
Location: Leafs AAV Champs, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Jul 13 @ 7:48 AM ET
What’s the biggest drop in points from season to season for a team in league history?

I imagine the Bruins are going to be up there next season.

- Santo_44


oh yes, I am def going to predict the Bruins fall off and miss the playoffs...for the 10th year in a row...then they win 65 games again
Zezel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: God Leafs Satan The Oneness, ON
Joined: 02.28.2011

Jul 13 @ 8:10 AM ET
I am having difficulty finding a common theme in the priority for Leaf fans.

Normally, in the summer, there are great discussions. Fans line up on both sides of an issue. Who to trade? Who to sign? How much? Folks might not agree but there has always been strong opinion on both sides of every discussion.

This year is measurably different. There are some significant player moves already completed. More to come. Yet, I find fan commentary more tentative, uncertain, even guarded.

Are fans more nervous? Or, are they fatigued by the drama around Dubas and all the front office movement since?

Am I wrong, but have fans Leaf fans just stepped back and adopted a cautious wait and see attitude? Nothing wrong here. But it is different from previous summers.

- spatso

*scroll*
senstroll
Location: Leafs AAV Champs, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Jul 13 @ 8:12 AM ET
Summer of Brad!
Aetherial
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Has anyone discussed the standings today?
Joined: 06.30.2006

Jul 13 @ 8:17 AM ET

- winsix

Aetherial
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Has anyone discussed the standings today?
Joined: 06.30.2006

Jul 13 @ 8:21 AM ET
*scroll*
- Zezel


As soon as he starts trying to sound serious, it is a sure sign that stupidity is coming.
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Not here to sell jerseys , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Jul 13 @ 8:25 AM ET
I am having difficulty finding a common theme in the priority for Leaf fans.

Normally, in the summer, there are great discussions. Fans line up on both sides of an issue. Who to trade? Who to sign? How much? Folks might not agree but there has always been strong opinion on both sides of every discussion.

This year is measurably different. There are some significant player moves already completed. More to come. Yet, I find fan commentary more tentative, uncertain, even guarded.

Are fans more nervous? Or, are they fatigued by the drama around Dubas and all the front office movement since?

Am I wrong, but have fans Leaf fans just stepped back and adopted a cautious wait and see attitude? Nothing wrong here. But it is different from previous summers.

- spatso

So many questions and so few clues
Zezel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: God Leafs Satan The Oneness, ON
Joined: 02.28.2011

Jul 13 @ 8:47 AM ET
As soon as he starts trying to sound serious, it is a sure sign that stupidity is coming.
- Aetherial


Lol pretty much.
SHiiFTY
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 01.26.2012

Jul 13 @ 9:34 AM ET
Good thing odds mean absolutely nothing when coming to who is actually going to win.
mjones242
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Pretentious Beer Snob, ON
Joined: 06.22.2015

Jul 13 @ 9:36 AM ET
I am having difficulty finding a common theme in the priority for Leaf fans.

Normally, in the summer, there are great discussions. Fans line up on both sides of an issue. Who to trade? Who to sign? How much? Folks might not agree but there has always been strong opinion on both sides of every discussion.

This year is measurably different. There are some significant player moves already completed. More to come. Yet, I find fan commentary more tentative, uncertain, even guarded.

Are fans more nervous? Or, are they fatigued by the drama around Dubas and all the front office movement since?

Am I wrong, but have fans Leaf fans just stepped back and adopted a cautious wait and see attitude? Nothing wrong here. But it is different from previous summers.

- spatso

Nah. Same old bs: people wanting to trade Core pieces and people insisting that the Core is just fine.
mr.sir
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Vancouver Island, BC
Joined: 01.18.2015

Jul 13 @ 9:41 AM ET
Nashville RW depth chart:

Evangelista
Sissons
Sherwood
Smith
🤨
drexel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Name the Traitors!, AB
Joined: 06.29.2006

Jul 13 @ 9:47 AM ET
its gonna be Willy for Karlsson. Pair EK with Klingberg and revel in it
GalacticStone
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: We shoulda let Uncle Billy finish the job.
Joined: 01.29.2013

Jul 13 @ 9:52 AM ET
I'm seeing some good changes. I'm also seeing some head scratchers.

Things started out well when it looked like the management house was getting cleaned, but then Keefe kept his job. That was a strong sign that any forthcoming shakeups weren't going to be big ones.

Keefe isn't terrible, but he seems to get consistently outcoached in the postseason. He's like a player that is red hot in the regular season and then vanishes in the playoffs. It's not rocket science to figure out why the players on his bench tend to follow that pattern. But, he's staying for at least one more season, so I guess that is beating a dead horse.

Love Nylander or hate him, the issue of whether to keep him or not is entirely cap-centered. Take the cap out of the issue and most people would probably be fine with keeping him at 10m or 11m per, assuming he keeps producing goals as expected.

The tip of the cap-hell Richard is being slipped in now. Just ask Tampa.

Zezel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: God Leafs Satan The Oneness, ON
Joined: 02.28.2011

Jul 13 @ 10:11 AM ET
I'm seeing some good changes. I'm also seeing some head scratchers.

Things started out well when it looked like the management house was getting cleaned, but then Keefe kept his job. That was a strong sign that any forthcoming shakeups weren't going to be big ones.

Keefe isn't terrible, but he seems to get consistently outcoached in the postseason. He's like a player that is red hot in the regular season and then vanishes in the playoffs. It's not rocket science to figure out why the players on his bench tend to follow that pattern. But, he's staying for at least one more season, so I guess that is beating a dead horse.

Love Nylander or hate him, the issue of whether to keep him or not is entirely cap-centered. Take the cap out of the issue and most people would probably be fine with keeping him at 10m or 11m per, assuming he keeps producing goals as expected.

The tip of the cap-hell Richard is being slipped in now. Just ask Tampa.

- GalacticStone


Well, his Keefe's core players did really well against Tampa, and he outcoached Cooper. So maybe they are looking at recent results.
Nasty_Duck
Boston Bruins
Location: ON
Joined: 06.20.2012

Jul 13 @ 10:20 AM ET
oh yes, I am def going to predict the Bruins fall off and miss the playoffs...for the 10th year in a row...then they win 65 games again
- senstroll


Still have a lot of same D and G, but I fear this year they will be a bubble team.


Cush29
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Who Owzzzzz da' Chiefs?, ON
Joined: 12.22.2014

Jul 13 @ 10:20 AM ET
Well, his Keefe's core players did really well against Tampa, and he outcoached Cooper. So maybe they are looking at recent results.
- Zezel


It's always entertaining in here listening to fans from teams who did one of 3 things tell all Leafs fans what is wrong with Toronto and how screwed the Leafs are.

Those 3 things being:

1. Their team not even making the playoffs

2. Losing in the first round of the playoffs in the worst collapse in NHL history after a record setting regular season

3. Losing in the 1st round to the actual Toronto Maple Leafs


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