Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 
Forums :: Blog World :: Zach Jarom: Hawks Decade Draft
Author Message
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Aug 5 @ 10:42 AM ET
While finishing up watching only the first game of Ivan Hlinka tourney, I started thinking how I see my first chance of error by Kyle Davidson.

It is in regards to the tarde with Philly of pick #51.

And I know little if I am correct on the first part, that the Hawks may have had their eye on drafting size in USA forward Danny Nelson, but he was chosen at #49, thus the move out of #50 so Philly could take the last of the 3 top goalies.

They got a sixths rounder ( Milton Oscarson ) and exchanged this second rounder for one in 2024.
The2023 traded first rounder was Tampa Bay's in the Seabrook contract trade.

That means it was at slot #19 in this strong 2023 draft, and traded it not for Philly's 2024 2nd rounder, but one they acquired, Los Angeles' second rounder.

Is it fair to say that the LA Kings will finish with a 2024 pick that is at very best in the mid-twenties, in a weaker draft?

Is that 6th round Oscarsson pick going to act as the equalizer in taking a "less positioned" second rounder?



BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Aug 5 @ 10:57 AM ET
Is Murphy being paid to be a Top 10 #1? No, he isn't. Jones is and he is about as close to being one as Mohel is.
- Elbows15


So that's your hang up, i look at that list and just like the writers, many fans including you love dmen who can score and think that's what makes a great dman.

Over half those guys i wouldn't trust in their own end with a one goal lead. Remember that great play Fox made going to the boards in game 7 vs jersey which led to the game winning goal? He looked a lot like Murphy out of position and behind the play.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Aug 5 @ 11:05 AM ET
While finishing up watching only the first game of Ivan Hlinka tourney, I started thinking how I see my first chance of error by Kyle Davidson.

It is in regards to the tarde with Philly of pick #51.

And I know little if I am correct on the first part, that the Hawks may have had their eye on drafting size in USA forward Danny Nelson, but he was chosen at #49, thus the move out of #50 so Philly could take the last of the 3 top goalies.

They got a sixths rounder ( Milton Oscarson ) and exchanged this second rounder for one in 2024.
The2023 traded first rounder was Tampa Bay's in the Seabrook contract trade.

That means it was at slot #19 in this strong 2023 draft, and traded it not for Philly's 2024 2nd rounder, but one they acquired, Los Angeles' second rounder.

Is it fair to say that the LA Kings will finish with a 2024 pick that is at very best in the mid-twenties, in a weaker draft?

Is that 6th round Oscarsson pick going to act as the equalizer in taking a "less positioned" second rounder?

- wiz1901


Watching the video of KD looked like he tried to trade up to secure Moore. I'm guessing the appeal of getting the 2nd rounder from Philly/LAs pick is to be able to package that pick to trade up in the 2024 draft.

Wild that there was no trades in the 1st round of the 23 draft. I forgot how long it's been since that happened but its been a while.

With KD i think we have to start thinking 2 to 3 moves down the road.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Aug 5 @ 11:25 AM ET
It'll be interesting to see how these older dmen perform in the league, watching Suter in the playoffs last year, yikes he was bad. Burns was ehhh, Doughty, Pietro, Karlsson, Letang, Petry, Josi just to name a few are getting a bit long in the tooth, even Hedman. Can't believe 33-34 year old dmen still have 3 to 4 years left on their contracts.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Aug 5 @ 12:17 PM ET


Wild that there was no trades in the 1st round of the 23 draft. .

- BetweenTheDots


I think that was based on a true stable of first round worthy prospects in 2023 not the usual drop off before the 20's....

I think teams knew there was less value in trading out of the top 19....

(we heard the Hawk table trade talking about "Billy is out.."or was it Philly... that could have been three GMs (Minny's Guerin, Panther's Zito, or Arizona's Armstrong, and only Billy Guerin had a pick close at #21 and there was talk of the Hawks wanting a pick after #19, who knows if Stamen or Stenberg or whoever was the target.

If NHL teams were less interested din trading out of earlier first in 2023, what's that say to the value of the LAKings second rounder over the Hawks?

You do have to wonder if Kyle was a bit over anxious in moving up the board.

Maybe he was simply trying to Gajan earlier?


With KD i think we have to start thinking 2 to 3 moves down the road.
- BetweenTheDots


I am not really sure if he is thinking draft wise 2 to 3 moves ahead....because if the GMs treat him like the new kid (after this big player for first rounders moves) and try and get move than their slots are worth in the future draft endeavors.

I just know the lower the slot is a better chance to snag a more safe guarantee at that kid being an NHL p[layer in some form.

No trouble trading both 2024 first rounders to get closer to the elite players.

It is a bit earlier but right now, in my humble opinion, this 2024 drops off at 18, but that easily changes if any of the players I ranked 19-32 have exceptionally seasons.

It's difficult to not desire the top two forwards and the big LD Sam Richardenson.
The Russian may not be Matvei Michkov, but Ivan Demidov is a ball of relentless movement and scoring generation.
Belarusian RD Artyom Levshunov, who has been in the USHL, is on his way to college is a nice investment too.
I am sure Hawk scouting checked and were relieved that big RD Carter Yaremchuk is not related to Kenny Yaremchuk and assured he can play dee besides spending Sio much time near the other team's goalies.

Except for the top three there will be more waiting time on all others, including Norwegian RW Michael Brandsegg-Nygård.

My love affair with Aron Kiviharju has ended after seeing how super Axel Sandin Pelikka is and will be for the Red Wings...but all the talk about how defenseman, especially the number of defensemen will be selected this draft.

I see a stark drop in board's defenders.
Sure, teams will draft them in the hopes they develop, but many have lots of chinks.

A team can over-value brother Adam Jiricek, or Cole Hutson, but many of the big guys need more work on their pins eg. legs / feet, and some you "hope" can be good enough to defend ala Colorado's Sam Girard.

It is both amusing and concerning that when coa chew are asked what RD Zayne Parekh position is and they answer, "Rover."

So, even if I assume our second first rounder from Tampa in 2024 is probably more around 22, 23, 24, and not that #19 of this last draft, the Hawk if not a lottery winner or a top three selector, they lock in on a defenseman with the first one, and can go many ways with that Tampa pick for a heavy big centre Cole Beaudoin, a North American forward or longer developmental Euro forward like Emil Hemming, etc.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Aug 5 @ 12:31 PM ET
I think that was based on a true stable of first round worthy prospects in 2023 not the usual drop off before the 20's....

I think teams knew there was less value in trading out of the top 19....

(we heard the Hawk table trade talking about "Billy is out.."or was it Philly... that could have been three GMs (Minny's Guerin, Panther's Zito, or Arizona's Armstrong, and only Billy Guerin had a pick close at #21 and there was talk of the Hawks wanting a pick after #19, who knows if Stamen or Stenberg or whoever was the target.

If NHL teams were less interested din trading out of earlier first in 2023, what's that say to the value of the LAKings second rounder over the Hawks?

You do have to wonder if Kyle was a bit over anxious in moving up the board.

Maybe he was simply trying to Gajan earlier?




I am not really sure if he is thinking draft wise 2 to 3 moves ahead....because if the GMs treat him like the new kid (after this big player for first rounders moves) and try and get move than their slots are worth in the future draft endeavors.

I just know the lower the slot is a better chance to snag a more safe guarantee at that kid being an NHL p

- wiz1901[layer in some form.

No trouble trading both 2024 first rounders to get closer to the elite players.

It is a bit earlier but right now, in my humble opinion, this 2024 drops off at 18, but that easily changes if any of the players I ranked 19-32 have exceptionally seasons.

It's difficult to not desire the top two forwards and the big LD Sam Richardenson.
The Russian may not be Matvei Michkov, but Ivan Demidov is a ball of relentless movement and scoring generation.
Belarusian RD Artyom Levshunov, who has been in the USHL, is on his way to college is a nice investment too.
I am sure Hawk scouting checked and were relieved that big RD Carter Yaremchuk is not related to Kenny Yaremchuk and assured he can play dee besides spending Sio much time near the other team's goalies.

Except for the top three there will be more waiting time on all others, including Norwegian RW Michael Brandsegg-Nygård.

My love affair with Aron Kiviharju has ended after seeing how super Axel Sandin Pelikka is and will be for the Red Wings...but all the talk about how defenseman, especially the number of defensemen will be selected this draft.

I see a stark drop in board's defenders.
Sure, teams will draft them in the hopes they develop, but many have lots of chinks.

A team can over-value brother Adam Jiricek, or Cole Hutson, but many of the big guys need more work on their pins eg. legs / feet, and some you "hope" can be good enough to defend ala Colorado's Sam Girard.

It is both amusing and concerning that when coa chew are asked what RD Zayne Parekh position is and they answer, "Rover."

So, even if I assume our second first rounder from Tampa in 2024 is probably more around 22, 23, 24, and not that #19 of this last draft, the Hawk if not a lottery winner or a top three selector, they lock in on a defenseman with the first one, and can go many ways with that Tampa pick for a heavy big centre Cole Beaudoin, a North American forward or longer developmental Euro forward like Emil Hemming, etc.


In reference to what I bolded above; Be very interested to see a comparison of your first round mock on todays date one year ago, compared to your final Mock this past year and then compared to the actual first round.

I bet there were many changes, which is not a knock, you are dealing with teenagers who can change very much in a year. But would say to be patient.

Also, Tampa's pick will be in the mid teens, they have lost important younger players and are getting old. They will start having a massive drop off, just hope the drop off isn't too steep so that they are in the top 10.

Don't laugh, think about how fast the Hawks drop-off was with arguably a better team.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Aug 5 @ 12:53 PM ET
In reference to what I bolded above; Be very interested to see a comparison of your first round mock on todays date one year ago, compared to your final Mock this past year and then compared to the actual first round.

I bet there were many changes, which is not a knock, you are dealing with teenagers who can change very much in a year. But would say to be patient.

Also, Tampa's pick will be in the mid teens, they have lost important younger players and are getting old. They will start having a massive drop off, just hope the drop off isn't too steep so that they are in the top 10.

Don't laugh, think about how fast the Hawks drop-off was with arguably a better team.

- vabeachbear


I think Boston may be in a similar situation as well. Pastrnak and McAvoy will take up 25% of their salary cap?
totem
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Seattle, WA
Joined: 06.14.2017

Aug 5 @ 2:05 PM ET

.
.
.

I am sure Hawk scouting checked and were relieved that big RD Carter Yaremchuk is not related to Kenny Yaremchuk and assured he can play dee besides spending Sio much time near the other team's goalies.
.
.
.

- wiz1901


Looks like it is actually spelled Yakemchuk with no "r". No worries about bad flashbacks to draft errors of the past.

https://www.eliteprospect...r/599451/carter-yakemchuk

Won't get a look at him here in Seattle as the Alberta teams are not coming south of the border this year.

Am thinking that there should be at least a couple of d-men in the 7 CHI top 100 picks in 2024. After the current clump of young d-men, there is really only Harding and Rinzel - Connor Kelley is there also but seems like a longer shot, maybe just a RD fill in in Rockford to start. Need to fill in the pipeline a little bit after that.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Aug 5 @ 4:11 PM ET
In reference to what I bolded above; Be very interested to see a comparison of your first round mock on todays date one year ago, compared to your final Mock this past year and then compared to the actual first round.

- vabeachbear


Actually The lines site has a way for you to do that.

You can see each version of the rankings dated.

The thing I starting out I constantly save the content in fear I will change screens and lose it before saving, so it's best to look at the ones that by date are close to NHl season starting.

https://www.lines.com/nhl/drafts/2023

Go to draft year and change FINAL to say version 29 (of there are 448 versions, including the fact that the fukked up website replaced my final MOCK which is there around version 365, so you can see my early version at 29 and final at 365.

Version 29 is a great early draft in October and 365 was the day before the draft....

While I was following the draft and inserting the players chosen, and adding trades/slot changes, I have to make a new version each time.
I wish DraftSite was back. I politely and patiently wait for them to fix these things but it is not a priority.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Aug 5 @ 4:19 PM ET
Looks like it is actually spelled Yakemchuk with no "r". No worries about bad flashbacks to draft errors of the past..
- totem


So happy YOU caught this misspelling.

You see why I cannot do this much longer? My eyes are going, and I was convinced it was spelled like Kenny Yaremchuck, and never gave it any thought this was a different spelling.
Thank you.

BTW the early draft list version 25, has more than one first rounder predicted as late second rounders.

That's why I love to see what Promnan says early, because he general poops the bed worse than I do (Senior pampers save me)

I am more surprised either of the hockey prospects experts have come out and talked about the players at the Ivan Hlinka.
I guess they have heard enough from others to form opinions.

I have only watched one game and already adjusted players up after watching.


Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Aug 5 @ 5:27 PM ET
So that's your hang up, i look at that list and just like the writers, many fans including you love dmen who can score and think that's what makes a great dman.

Over half those guys i wouldn't trust in their own end with a one goal lead. Remember that great play Fox made going to the boards in game 7 vs jersey which led to the game winning goal? He looked a lot like Murphy out of position and behind the play.

- BetweenTheDots

You act like Jones is some great force in his own end. I wouldn't trust Jones with a 3 goal lead.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Aug 5 @ 5:44 PM ET
Actually The lines site has a way for you to do that.

You can see each version of the rankings dated.

The thing I starting out I constantly save the content in fear I will change screens and lose it before saving, so it's best to look at the ones that by date are close to NHl season starting.

https://www.lines.com/nhl/drafts/2023

Go to draft year and change FINAL to say version 29 (of there are 448 versions, including the fact that the fukked up website replaced my final MOCK which is there around version 365, so you can see my early version at 29 and final at 365.

Version 29 is a great early draft in October and 365 was the day before the draft....

While I was following the draft and inserting the players chosen, and adding trades/slot changes, I have to make a new version each time.
I wish DraftSite was back. I politely and patiently wait for them to fix these things but it is not a priority.

- wiz1901


thanks for that. Really some big changes, I never did see where the publication date was, as mine all stayed the same, but i could go easily between verions.

Just shows you, in a year, a lot can change. I'm kind of curious if the changes tend to be more on the "x amount of players really improved" vs. "x amount of players got worse".

Imagine its a combination of both I bet its some have hit their peak early.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Aug 5 @ 5:46 PM ET
THN has a piece out that lists 12 standouts from the WJSS written by Tony Ferraro who I've always been a fan of. He does list Nazar, who he thinks might center L1, and Moore. As I posted earlier, I was really happy to read Nazar looks to be completely healthy, the 2nd writer to say so, and mentions Moore's 200 ft game and IQ.

Encouraging news for a Hawk's fan. If Nazar is healthy he'll have a huge role at U of MI and will get a yrs development in the NCAA. We all know about Moore's crazy speed, that's a given, but reading things like 200 ft game and IQ makes the kid a more complete/valuable/dangerous player.

https://www.msn.com/en-us...f628c53d094f1fd3126&ei=18
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Aug 5 @ 6:14 PM ET



My love affair with Aron Kiviharju has ended after seeing how super Axel Sandin Pelikka is and will be for the Red Wings...but all the talk about how defenseman, especially the number of defensemen will be selected this draft.

.

- wiz1901


Curious why your love for Pelikka would downgrade Kiviharju? .... I am becoming less and less enthralled with smallish Dmen but I'll never get out of my head seeing Kiviharju playing WJC-18 and showed off the charts IQ/poise as a 16 yr old 2 yrs ago. Kid was amazing.

Seems he fell a bit in this yrs rankings cuz he was not dominant this past yr. But he did play 20 games pro in Finland and averaged 21:00 per game as a 17 yr old!!! That's a big number.

Not saying I'm sold on the kid but he may end up a legit NHLer. Smallish, not an elite skater and shoots left but any eye test shows a kid with skilled hands and an elite brain who's skating 21 minutes a night in the top pro league in Finland as a smallish 17 yr old.

https://www.eliteprospect...yer/526036/aron-kiviharju
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Aug 5 @ 6:50 PM ET



Won't get a look at him here in Seattle as the Alberta teams are not coming south of the border this year.


- totem


Totem, how often and why does this happen and is it only in the WHL where a schedule is made where not all teams play each other?
totem
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Seattle, WA
Joined: 06.14.2017

Aug 5 @ 7:15 PM ET
Totem, how often and why does this happen and is it only in the WHL where a schedule is made where not all teams play each other?
- Mr Ricochet


It's an oddity of the WHL and I am guessing it is because of the distance, so one year the US teams go out to Sask/Manitoba, and the next year those teams come to the US. Same for the rest of the teams in the WHL east (mostly Alberta) but in the opposite years. So they do play each other every year, but not all home and away. Not sure about the OHL or QMJHL.

It was a bit unfortunate because a bunch of the highly ranked draft eligibles for 2023 didn't come to the US last year. Now those guys are drafted, and quite a few of the 2024 eligibles aren't coming this year.

Another oddity is Winnipeg ICE have been sold and moved to Wenatchee, WA, creating another US team. Not sure what the schedule-makers did about that one.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Aug 5 @ 8:36 PM ET
It's an oddity of the WHL and I am guessing it is because of the distance, so one year the US teams go out to Sask/Manitoba, and the next year those teams come to the US. Same for the rest of the teams in the WHL east (mostly Alberta) but in the opposite years. So they do play each other every year, but not all home and away. Not sure about the OHL or QMJHL.

It was a bit unfortunate because a bunch of the highly ranked draft eligibles for 2023 didn't come to the US last year. Now those guys are drafted, and quite a few of the 2024 eligibles aren't coming this year.

Another oddity is Winnipeg ICE have been sold and moved to Wenatchee, WA, creating another US team. Not sure what the schedule-makers did about that one.

- totem


Interesting. I'm assuming they do the every other yr thing for cost savings. It can suck for the fan but rule #1, especially jrs and low pro, is solvency. How many times does each team play each other in a yr? It can get stale for the fan, and players too, seeing the same club 7-8-9 times a yr......

Forgot WPG was moving to WSH state. Should be good for you in SEA as it should create a geographical rivel. IIRC Wenatchee supported their NAHL team well and when they went BCHL that continued and should be boosted even more with a Major Junior squad to support.

Ever since covid the USHL stopped interconference play but are starting it back up this yr. Many teams played each other near 10 times a yr and it got old fast. Look forward to seeing some variety.

I'm following Major Junior more and more and just might breakdown and buy the OHL package. We'll see but I have the USHL package and along with the NHL there are only so many hours in the day. But Major Junior is a blast to watch and follow.... Very jealous of you guys who see it live.
totem
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Seattle, WA
Joined: 06.14.2017

Aug 5 @ 9:59 PM ET
Interesting. I'm assuming they do the every other yr thing for cost savings. It can suck for the fan but rule #1, especially jrs and low pro, is solvency. How many times does each team play each other in a yr? It can get stale for the fan, and players too, seeing the same club 7-8-9 times a yr......

Forgot WPG was moving to WSH state. Should be good for you in SEA as it should create a geographical rivel. IIRC Wenatchee supported their NAHL team well and when they went BCHL that continued and should be boosted even more with a Major Junior squad to support.

Ever since covid the USHL stopped interconference play but are starting it back up this yr. Many teams played each other near 10 times a yr and it got old fast. Look forward to seeing some variety.

I'm following Major Junior more and more and just might breakdown and buy the OHL package. We'll see but I have the USHL package and along with the NHL there are only so many hours in the day. But Major Junior is a blast to watch and follow.... Very jealous of you guys who see it live.

- Mr Ricochet


We get the US teams in 3-4 times, and see the rest of the west twice, and then just a few games against the east. Good variety, guess I shouldn't complain, there will still be more prospects than I can get to the games to see.
MjulQvist
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 04.22.2012

Aug 6 @ 11:16 AM ET
Kiviharju´s skating is a big concern for me. For his size skating must be a strength not weakness. And if he doesn´t prove that a lot I can´t see him succeeding in NHL.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Aug 6 @ 11:23 AM ET
I think Boston may be in a similar situation as well. Pastrnak and McAvoy will take up 25% of their salary cap?
- BetweenTheDots


Yes, probably true, but we don't have their first round pick next year, Tampa's we do
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Aug 6 @ 12:02 PM ET
That was quite the deal Dubas orchestrated to land Karlsson, I’m glad KD stayed out of this situation. I don’t think it was worth it for just a 2nd round pick and a bunch of spare parts.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Aug 6 @ 12:08 PM ET
Actually The lines site has a way for you to do that.

You can see each version of the rankings dated.

The thing I starting out I constantly save the content in fear I will change screens and lose it before saving, so it's best to look at the ones that by date are close to NHl season starting.

https://www.lines.com/nhl/drafts/2023

Go to draft year and change FINAL to say version 29 (of there are 448 versions, including the fact that the fukked up website replaced my final MOCK which is there around version 365, so you can see my early version at 29 and final at 365.

Version 29 is a great early draft in October and 365 was the day before the draft....

While I was following the draft and inserting the players chosen, and adding trades/slot changes, I have to make a new version each time.
I wish DraftSite was back. I politely and patiently wait for them to fix these things but it is not a priority.

- wiz1901


Looking forward to the 2024 draft and assuming the Hawks do not draft #1 again, Sam D ickinson is the early target for me.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Aug 6 @ 12:13 PM ET
That was quite the deal Dubas orchestrated to land Karlsson, I’m glad KD stayed out of this situation. I don’t think it was worth it for just a 2nd round pick and a bunch of spare parts.
- DarthKane


So am i, nice move by the Habs, at least the Pens are getting younger at defense, hahaha
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Aug 6 @ 12:20 PM ET
Yes, probably true, but we don't have their first round pick next year, Tampa's we do

- vabeachbear


True, just thinking the division itself is going to be much more competitive this upcoming season.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Aug 6 @ 12:27 PM ET
https://twitter.com/JFres...tUm2ngCF63jEF60EPfLw&s=01

And this is the guy who won best defenseman, so (frank)ed up.
Page: Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11  Next