Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 
Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Bump, WJSS, TIFH
Author Message
THE EVIL WITHIN
Location: NJ
Joined: 11.20.2017

Aug 2 @ 5:05 PM ET
He had the bad knees. But he could play.
- bmeltzer

Yea, he was totally exposed when the red line dissappeard.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Aug 2 @ 5:05 PM ET
The fact you don't know what a simple question is says it all. What a 60 point player is worth is based on opinion, which most educated people understand that will lead to multiple answers. Which obviously means you think you have the correct answer and there is no such thing as a correct answer since it's based on opinion.

Look at all the scenarios...

Are we talking about players who scored 60+ points in the past and will continue to be a 60 point player?

What about players who were 60 point players with the expectation they become greater than a 60 point player?

How about players who have never scored 60 points, but expect to be?

Doesn't seem so simple, especially since the answer will always be opinion based.

Tage Thompson was a 60 point scorer when he signed his 7.1m contract then scored 94 points, clearly 94 point players make 7.1m then, right? That's the production for a player making that much money. When he scored 68 points he was making 1.4m...is that the answer you want?

- Glak18


Which means his contract was right in line with Terry's when he signed it then?


ANyway, I quickly looked at what $ per point for the NHL was for people who played some RW (includes Giroux).
. By my rough calculations, Victor Oloffson, at about $118750 per point, is the median.

Multiply 118500 by a 60 point season, and you end up with ....$7.12m a season, and Terry has exceeded that 2 years in a row. So nvm term, Terry's monetary contract seems right in line with market. Add in the fact that he is only 25, they have had a long look at him, and he has chemistry with Zegras, and that this production has happened when both are young and on a bad team, then it seems reasonable to believe that you wanna keep them together and also that they will both improve as they mature and Carlsson comes in and team improves in general. Further, salary cap is likely 100m range 2 years from now,

Honestly it looks like they struck while the iron is hot. Wait a couple of years and the kid may well have gotten 8.5-9.



ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Aug 2 @ 5:07 PM ET
Which means his contract was right in line with Terry's when he signed it then?


ANyway, I quickly looked at what $ per point for the NHL was for people who played some RW (includes Giroux).
. By my rough calculations, Victor Oloffson, at about $118750 per point, is the median.

Multiply 118500 by a 60 point season, and you end up with ....$7.12m a season, and Terry has exceeded that 2 years in a row. So nvm term, Terry's monetary contract seems right in line with market. Add in the fact that he is only 25, they have had a long look at him, and he has chemistry with Zegras, and that this production has happened when both are young and on a bad team, then it seems reasonable to believe that you wanna keep them together and also that they will both improve as they mature and Carlsson comes in and team improves in general. Further, salary cap is likely 100m range 2 years from now,

Honestly it looks like they struck while the iron is hot. Wait a couple of years and the kid may well have gotten 8.5-9.

- PT21

😂😂😂
Bob Habib
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.01.2020

Aug 2 @ 5:10 PM ET
[quote=Peter Richards]
You, sir, have a fantastic memory.
I remember watching him in preseason and he looked like we had something in him but then he just disappeared.
Was it his 200 ft game?
I was so young that I honestly don't remember why he didn't make the team
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Aug 2 @ 5:11 PM ET
Which means his contract was right in line with Terry's when he signed it then?


ANyway, I quickly looked at what $ per point for the NHL was for people who played some RW (includes Giroux).
. By my rough calculations, Victor Oloffson, at about $118750 per point, is the median.

Multiply 118500 by a 60 point season, and you end up with ....$7.12m a season, and Terry has exceeded that 2 years in a row. So nvm term, Terry's monetary contract seems right in line with market. Add in the fact that he is only 25, they have had a long look at him, and he has chemistry with Zegras, and that this production has happened when both are young and on a bad team, then it seems reasonable to believe that you wanna keep them together and also that they will both improve as they mature and Carlsson comes in and team improves in general. Further, salary cap is likely 100m range 2 years from now,

Honestly it looks like they struck while the iron is hot. Wait a couple of years and the kid may well have gotten 8.5-9.

- PT21


I was waiting for someone to use the capfriendly point per $. There's a reason why it's never used.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Aug 2 @ 5:17 PM ET
I was waiting for someone to use the capfriendly point per $. There's a reason why it's never used.
- Glak18


OK, so what should be used then? The cases where the projections were proven to be false? There will always be such cases. Should a trader, for example, never make any trades?

(Btw jury is still out on Bee: remember he is coming off a serious surgery on a bad team with a nutjob as coach. In 21-22, he was on a tear until late in the season, iirc).
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Aug 2 @ 5:19 PM ET
The fact you don't know what a simple question is says it all. What a 60 point player is worth is based on opinion, which most educated people understand that will lead to multiple answers. Which obviously means you think you have the correct answer and there is no such thing as a correct answer since it's based on opinion.

Look at all the scenarios...

Are we talking about players who scored 60+ points in the past and will continue to be a 60 point player?

What about players who were 60 point players with the expectation they become greater than a 60 point player?

How about players who have never scored 60 points, but expect to be?

Doesn't seem so simple, especially since the answer will always be opinion based.

Tage Thompson was a 60 point scorer when he signed his 7.1m contract then scored 94 points, clearly 94 point players make 7.1m then, right? That's the production for a player making that much money. When he scored 68 points he was making 1.4m...is that the answer you want?

- Glak18

based on fact as he just got 49 million
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Aug 2 @ 5:29 PM ET
OK, so what should be used then? The cases where the projections were proven to be false? There will always be such cases. Should a trader, for example, never make any trades?

(Btw jury is still out on Bee: remember he is coming off a serious surgery on a bad team with a nutjob as coach. In 21-22, he was on a tear until late in the season, iirc).

- PT21


You should know better. The whole stat is a rudimentary formula. Even the median used was from a bad contract of Olofsson. It doesn't take in account of games played, usage or span of consistency. All it is based off of is this player made this much and divided by points. What does that really tell?

The biggest reach is trying to find the average then hoping that's the starting point to calculate. There's a reason it's a new addition and will be updated more in the future.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Aug 2 @ 5:32 PM ET
based on fact as he just got 49 million
- hello it's me 2050


Kevin Hayes got 50 million over 7 years, facts or is this a cherry picking simulation?

Killorn got 25 million over 4....why not 7m per year?


hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Aug 2 @ 5:36 PM ET
Kevin Hayes got 50 million over 7 years, facts or is this a cherry picking simulation?

Killorn got 25 million over 4....why not 7m per year?

- Glak18

nothing in your post changes what I posted does it?

1. chuck is a terrible GM
2. he has only 1 60 point season.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Aug 2 @ 5:36 PM ET
nothing in your post changes what I posted does it?

1. chuck is a terrible GM
2. he has only 1 60 point season.

- hello it's me 2050


Fletcher never signed Killorn.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Aug 2 @ 5:39 PM ET
Kevin Hayes got 50 million over 7 years, facts or is this a cherry picking simulation?

Killorn got 25 million over 4....why not 7m per year?

- Glak18



Because he is 33?
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Aug 2 @ 5:41 PM ET
Because he is 33?
- MBFlyerfan


So wait...other things play a part in a players contract?

Like age, usage? Nooooooooo Waaaaaaaaaaay.

I thought it was just 60 points = 7m. That would be silly to think that way.
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Aug 2 @ 5:43 PM ET
Fletcher never signed Killorn.
- Glak18

you sure?
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Aug 2 @ 5:43 PM ET
So wait...other things play a part in a players contract?

Like age, usage? Nooooooooo Waaaaaaaaaaay.

I thought it was just 60 points = 7m. That would be silly to think that way.

- Glak18



Sure it does. But the going rate for a 25 year old coming off consecutive 60+ point seasons is 7 million.

90 point players would make 9.
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Aug 2 @ 5:43 PM ET
So wait...other things play a part in a players contract?

Like age, usage? Nooooooooo Waaaaaaaaaaay.

I thought it was just 60 points = 7m. That would be silly to think that way.

- Glak18

is that what wa said by anyone?
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Aug 2 @ 5:44 PM ET
Sure it does. But the going rate for a 25 year old coming off consecutive 60+ point seasons is 7 million.

90 point players would make 9.

- MBFlyerfan



Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Aug 2 @ 5:45 PM ET
is that what wa said by anyone?
- hello it's me 2050


At worst he’s a 65 point player on a $7M contract with the cap going up considerably next year. That’s a good contract
- ClaudeFather


There's others too
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Aug 2 @ 5:48 PM ET
You should know better. The whole stat is a rudimentary formula. Even the median used was from a bad contract of Olofsson. It doesn't take in account of games played, usage or span of consistency. All it is based off of is this player made this much and divided by points. What does that really tell?

The biggest reach is trying to find the average then hoping that's the starting point to calculate. There's a reason it's a new addition and will be updated more in the future.

- Glak18


I did not intend to use that stat as a gospel to abide by. But it is at least suggestive, surely, in providing a rough idea of how the market values production.

(The nature of Olofsson's contract is irrelevant actually. Just go to the next highest/lowest if you like)

On a more general note: you seem to be basing your criticism on what the Flyers did wrong. And I agree, no sooner has a Flyer displayed even a glimmer of promise, we lock him up (and the reverse is also true: have no patience with late bloomers). And we do so with no logic whatsoever of how that player's trajectory correlates with that of the team. The Couturier extension is a prime example.

But Anaheim has done its time in the tank zone. They have a boatload of high draft picks and young talent. Carlsson is the cherry on the top. They are now looking ahead, and in this case, the age of Terry, synergy (with TZ) and production seems nicely aligned with the trajectory of the team.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Aug 2 @ 5:49 PM ET
Now back to what the INITIAL discussion was...

Tippett having a career year (30 some goals and 60 point season). Worth 7m+?
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Aug 2 @ 5:53 PM ET
I did not intend to use that stat as a gospel to abide by. But it is at least suggestive, surely, in providing a rough idea of how the market values production.

(The nature of Olofsson's contract is irrelevant actually. Just go to the next highest/lowest if you like)

On a more general note: you seem to be basing your criticism on what the Flyers did wrong. And I agree, no sooner has a Flyer displayed even a glimmer of promise, we lock him up (and the reverse is also true: have no patience with late bloomers). And we do so with no logic whatsoever of how that player's trajectory correlates with that of the team. The Couturier extension is a prime example.

But Anaheim has done its time in the tank zone. They have a boatload of high draft picks and young talent. Carlsson is the cherry on the top. They are now looking ahead, and in this case, the age of Terry, synergy (with TZ) and production seems nicely aligned with the trajectory of the team.

- PT21


Well it's more than just basing just on the Flyers because I could actually use many other teams that do EXACTLY what the Flyers do, but perception around here is Flyers are the only team to do this.

Flyers players all bad, other teams players better. Coach ruins players feelings, other teams coaches make players happy.

The whole discussion was purely based on player signing and how it could affect Tippett. Clearly the answer is Terry good, Tippet ok.
Bob Habib
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.01.2020

Aug 2 @ 6:01 PM ET
What does everyone see as a fair value contract for frosty?
What AAV and what is an appropriate term?
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Aug 2 @ 6:13 PM ET
What does everyone see as a fair value contract for frosty?
What AAV and what is an appropriate term?

- Bob Habib


Personally my hope is 2-3 years max, no more than 3m per.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Aug 2 @ 6:22 PM ET
Derian Hatcher, what a sloth that guy was, a product of the clutch and grab era. Not his fault, just what it was back then. He'd be a 7th defenseman in today's much faster moving game.
- Dave21Brown


No, at his best, he would still be a very good player.
Bob Habib
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.01.2020

Aug 2 @ 6:32 PM ET
Personally my hope is 2-3 years max, no more than 3m per.
- Glak18

That's the ball park that I am in.
If he continues to excel and proves himself and bets on himself then he earns his next big contract.
The issue is that that puts him into UFA status and of he hates Torts that much and has grown bitter with this franchise then we lose him, barring a trade.
I'd like to see him in orange and black for years to come if he proves that the second half of last season wasn't an anomaly.
I personally think that be is and will be a damn good hockey player
Page: Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next