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Forums :: Blog World :: Brad Lohr: You Guys are so Immature
Author Message
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Sep 17 @ 9:39 AM ET
Guessing you meant Kozak, not Kisakov on the above, right?

Did you also mean Kulich and Kozak as the future 3C and 4C?

If so, both would likely be ready in the next 1.5 seasons, as Lunaion indicated last night.

That would mean saying bye-bye to Krebs.

- kingcong39


Krebs had better put together a productive year.
Given our pipeline, especially at the C position, he is a strong candidate to be traded for future upgrades at a position of need...where ever that may be.
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

Sep 17 @ 9:58 AM ET
I think what you are referring to is Kevin extracted premium value from that draft selection. No matter the reason, he did so...and likely has 31 GM's kicking themselves.
- IonSabres

Yes they did, said it the day they drafted him. Still doesn't change the fact the Sabres waited to.
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

Sep 17 @ 10:07 AM ET
Looks like Hamlin is a healthy scratch again
washedup20
Location: the little apple
Joined: 08.19.2014

Sep 17 @ 10:32 AM ET
Krebs had better put together a productive year.
Given our pipeline, especially at the C position, he is a strong candidate to be traded for future upgrades at a position of need...where ever that may be.

- IonSabres



What would his value be if he has a season that makes him expendable in Buffalo?
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Sep 17 @ 10:45 AM ET
???
With the screwed up development path he has to endure this season?
Disagree, he needs 1 year playing professionally, preferably in the AHL.


BTW, I am his biggest supporter on here, by far.

- IonSabres

when picked 9th overall, you should be ready to play with the big boys in year 3

Sabretooth9
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 05.24.2019

Sep 17 @ 11:12 AM ET
Yes we do, but you can only hold them back for so long and you can only have so many in Rochester. Sabres have a young team and they probably get younger in the next 2 years. Can't have a team full of Prospects in Rochester, they will start blocking each other. Adams is gonna have to make a few trades, you can only wait so long on Prospects or they are wasted Assets.
- Buff36


Eventually we will have players that out proved themselves here and then you insert Ostlund for example after waiting for him to develop

Olofson isn’t a long term guy and gone
mitts is a maybe long term or mid guy
Greenway is gone
Okposos is retiring
Girgensons is gone
Krebs who I like is mid right now

More Roster slots will open up as time goes on and you insert the prospect.

I get we haven’t won anything but the bruins for years. Maybe not so right now, Tampa at one point, and few other teams have a consistent flow of prospects.

Once you are a contender … you can also sell off prospects for good players. See what the penguins have done for 20 years
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Sep 17 @ 11:18 AM ET
Eventually we will have players that out proved themselves here and then you insert Ostlund for example after waiting for him to develop

Olofson isn’t a long term guy and gone
mitts is a maybe long term or mid guy
Greenway is gone
Okposos is retiring
Girgensons is gone
Krebs who I like is mid right now

More Roster slots will open up as time goes on and you insert the prospect.

I get we haven’t won anything but the bruins for years. Maybe not so right now, Tampa at one point, and few other teams have a consistent flow of prospects.

Once you are a contender … you can also sell off prospects for good players. See what the penguins have done for 20 years

- Sabretooth9


How much does the value of these prospects drop if they can't crack the NHL after 3-4 years?
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

Sep 17 @ 11:20 AM ET
Eventually we will have players that out proved themselves here and then you insert Ostlund for example after waiting for him to develop

Olofson isn’t a long term guy and gone
mitts is a maybe long term or mid guy
Greenway is gone
Okposos is retiring
Girgensons is gone
Krebs who I like is mid right now

More Roster slots will open up as time goes on and you insert the prospect.

I get we haven’t won anything but the bruins for years. Maybe not so right now, Tampa at one point, and few other teams have a consistent flow of prospects.

Once you are a contender … you can also sell off prospects for good players. See what the penguins have done for 20 years

- Sabretooth9

You can already make a full roster with them gone of young players and still have 10 more coming. Would be different if the Sabres had a older Core, but they don't
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Sep 17 @ 11:32 AM ET
Yes they did, said it the day they drafted him. Still doesn't change the fact the Sabres waited to.
- Buff36

Smart.
They're one of the few organizations with the scouting resources on the ground in Russia...they took full advantage of it.
It wasn't a blind pick out of a hat of names. They knew the scenario going in and they exploited it to their advantage.
I sense an attempt to diminish a) the strategy and b) the result by inferring they lucked out. It was anything but that.
Value created by a very sound and smart strategy of exploiting other organizations' stupidity. And maximizing the front office's assets and associated investments.
Buff36
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 10.13.2019

Sep 17 @ 11:34 AM ET
Smart.
They're one of the few organizations with the scouting resources on the ground in Russia...they took full advantage of it.
It wasn't a blind pick out of a hat if names. They knew the scenario going in and they exp.oitwd it to their advantage Tage.
Why attempt to diminish a) the strategy and b) the result by inferring g they lucked out. It was anything but that.
Value created by a very sound and smart strategy of exploiting other organizations' stupidity. And maximizing the front office's assets and associated investments.

- IonSabres

Yeah mentioned the Scout Ruslan Pechonkin earlier, he's been really good the last couple drafts.
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Sep 17 @ 11:38 AM ET
when picked 9th overall, you should be ready to play with the big boys in year 3
- homiedclown


Disagree.
Most after top 3 in most drafts need a year of professional league development in NA.
He hasn't had that. Are there exceptions? Sure.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Sep 17 @ 11:44 AM ET
Krebs had better put together a productive year.
Given our pipeline, especially at the C position, he is a strong candidate to be traded for future upgrades at a position of need...where ever that may be.

- IonSabres


Krebs and Ostlund are 2 of the prime trade candidates.

Seems the earliest the Sabres might be true contenders would be the 25-26 season.

By that point, both Krebs and Ostlund could be traded, and Tuch will be on the final season of his current deal, and approaching 30.

They would have achieved contender status without much from the Eichel trade.

Would be interesting.
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Sep 17 @ 11:45 AM ET
What would his value be if he has a season that makes him expendable in Buffalo?
- washedup20


Well, context is important. Depends on the production.
If he fails to produce, little value...change of scenery candidate.
If he produces as a 3C with a 200' game, yet is pushed out by similar players on ELC's ... I'd say he could have good value-add in a package. I think a season of ~35-40 pts achieves that
washedup20
Location: the little apple
Joined: 08.19.2014

Sep 17 @ 11:48 AM ET
Disagree.
Most after top 3 in most drafts need a year of professional league development in NA.
He hasn't had that. Are there exceptions? Sure.

- IonSabres



“Players taken in an NHL entry draft are typically 3 to 4 years out from playing there first game, and that is when the bulk of them will get their first taste of NHL action. This would put them at 21 to 22 years of age. ”

“I was actually surprised that the first round was at 94% – I did not think it would be that high. I guess I am constantly underestimating the scouts.”


https://hockeyanswered.co...picks-make-it-to-the-nhl/
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Sep 17 @ 11:49 AM ET
Disagree.
Most after top 3 in most drafts need a year of professional league development in NA.
He hasn't had that. Are there exceptions? Sure.

- IonSabres


Here's the 2021 NHL draft:
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2021e.html

12 of the top 13 have played NHL games 2 years later.

2020: https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2020e.html

Only 6 in the 1st round haven't played an NHL game after 3 years.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Sep 17 @ 11:50 AM ET
Well, context is important. Depends on the production.
If he fails to produce, little value...change of scenery candidate.
If he produces as a 3C with a 200' game, yet is pushed out by similar players on ELC's ... I'd say he could have good value-add in a package. I think a season of ~35-40 pts achieves that

- IonSabres


You are already planning on saving money by pushing out a player who will get nothing more then a modest raise for a player on an ELC?

Chances the Sabres trade Krebs if he has a season as you suggested above seem like virtually zero.
washedup20
Location: the little apple
Joined: 08.19.2014

Sep 17 @ 11:50 AM ET
How much does the value of these prospects drop if they can't crack the NHL after 3-4 years?
- Lunaion


“However, if they have not made the NHL within 5 or 6 years of their draft year the odds of playing a game in the NHL severely diminish. Not that it is impossible, but NHL teams do not have a lot of room on their rosters for players who are 25 and older and have not proven they can play in the NHL.

By the age of 25, even at the NHL level, the common thought is the player has developed to the top of their ability and, at that point, you get what you get.

By this point a player who is in their mid-20s and has not played an NHL game will be have the minor league label firmly attached to them, and that is a hard label to get off once it has been put on.

The one exception to this is for goalies. Goalies are known to take longer to develop since goaltending is the most difficult position to play. It is not uncommon for a goalie to take until their mid-20s to get established in the NHL.

So, if you are an NHL draftee and have not had a game in the NHL within 5 or 6 years of your draft year you likely will not get that chance. Most of them know this and will have either made their way to Europe to play in one of their leagues or have gone back to school or started out in a new career“


IMO by year 3/4 their value gets cut in half, by year 5 it’s future considerations.
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Sep 17 @ 11:54 AM ET
How much does the value of these prospects drop if they can't crack the NHL after 3-4 years?
- Lunaion


Depends on the scenario.If there are openings and they aren't good enough to take the spot, the value drops accordingly.
If on the other hand they can't squeeze in because they are behind existing players with good production..it could have very good value.
Also, guys like Rosen who need 3 -4 years of physical growth to withstand the rigors of the game while showing a track record of increasing productivity...could have incredible value!
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Sep 17 @ 11:57 AM ET
“Players taken in an NHL entry draft are typically 3 to 4 years out from playing there first game, and that is when the bulk of them will get their first taste of NHL action. This would put them at 21 to 22 years of age. ”

“I was actually surprised that the first round was at 94% – I did not think it would be that high. I guess I am constantly underestimating the scouts.”


https://hockeyanswered.co...picks-make-it-to-the-nhl/

- washedup20


Sure, but that 3-4 years is for prospects drafted through the various rounds. A 9th pick is closer to the beginning of the range who make it.
Sabretooth9
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 05.24.2019

Sep 17 @ 11:57 AM ET
You can already make a full roster with them gone of young players and still have 10 more coming. Would be different if the Sabres had a older Core, but they don't
- Buff36


I think you homie and washedup are thinking the Sabres are a video game and trades can easily be made and takes 2 seconds.

This is real life ……. It’s not fantasy football or video games.

We don’t need to move our prospects right this second.

Literally no rush at all
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Sep 17 @ 12:01 PM ET
I think you homie and washedup are thinking the Sabres are a video game and trades can easily be made and takes 2 seconds.

This is real life ……. It’s not fantasy football or video games.

We don’t need to move our prospects right this second.

Literally no rush at all

- Sabretooth9


All four of Kulich, Rosen, Savoie and Benson could likely be ready for the 24-25 season.

What are you doing to make room for all four of them, or are you going to block the duo of Savoie and Benson for another season?
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Sep 17 @ 12:01 PM ET
Depends on the scenario.If there are openings and they aren't good enough to take the spot, the value drops accordingly.
If on the other hand they can't squeeze in because they are behind existing players with good production..it could have very good value.
Also, guys like Rosen who need 3 -4 years of physical growth to withstand the rigors of the game while showing a track record of increasing productivity...could have incredible value!

- IonSabres


I don't think there's a scenario where blocking your 1st rounders is going to be a positive.

If Rosen can't crack the lineup by the end of the season, his value would drop significantly from a #14 pick.
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Sep 17 @ 12:04 PM ET
Here's the 2021 NHL draft:
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2021e.html

12 of the top 13 have played NHL games 2 years later.

2020: https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2020e.html

Only 6 in the 1st round haven't played an NHL game after 3 years.

- Lunaion


Including Owen Power, who wanted to play another year of College..he likely would have made the jump directly to the NHL.
Savoie was drafted in 2022. If he could play in the AHL this season, he would have a strong chance of getting a game or two in the NHL. Now, possibly having to go back to Jr's for a wasted year development wise reduces that liklihood.
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Sep 17 @ 12:09 PM ET
You are already planning on saving money by pushing out a player who will get nothing more then a modest raise for a player on an ELC?

Chances the Sabres trade Krebs if he has a season as you suggested above seem like virtually zero.

- kingcong39

likelihood.

Maybe. We'll see.

I said he would be a good value add in a package for a player at a position of need. Other teams may value that production if they don't have a strong pipeline to fill their need..case in point, Tampa.

Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Sep 17 @ 12:13 PM ET
Including Owen Power, who wanted to play another year of College..he likely would have made the jump directly to the NHL.
Savoie was drafted in 2022. If he could play in the AHL this season, he would have a strong chance of getting a game or two in the NHL. Now, possibly having to go back to Jr's for a wasted year development wise reduces that liklihood.

- IonSabres


Let's split the difference and make a very mild statement. Savoie should be expected to contribute in the NHL at some point next season (24/25) and you'd like to see him stick in the lineup by the end of the year.

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