PDO doesn’t account for fantastic screens. Deft puck deflections. Getting shots through a crowd.

That last graph, with some Emerson, Lake & Palmer, burgundy wine and some Window Pane acid ...
- Marwood

Oh yes, yes again and no thanks, no acid for me thanks.

Oh yes, yes again and no thanks, no acid for me thanks.
- Makita

Fair enough on the acid. I have an Indica called Storm Warning that I'm enjoying these days, that might be a suitable alternative, you beta.

We are 10 days away from US thanksgiving which most people use as benchmark on if a team will make the playoffs or not. I think we are sitting pretty good.
- VANTEL

- Pacificgem

Flying over NHL HQ?

Hola CANUCK FANS. What’s up with this Soucy dude? The new Tanev? Speaking of Tanev looks like Alvin is circling back on the Tanev acquisition. Not the worse player to grab for the cup run.
It’s really different checking out the draft rankings this early in the season, where do you guys see Tij Iginla finishing? Right now he’s ranked 16th and is putting up better #’s than his dad in his draft year.

I need to add to the analytics conversation. The problem NHL people have with current analytics is there is no true accurate metric for defensive play. There’s expected goals for and against there’s possession etc. But here’s the rub the analytics (experts? Nerds or whatever) have a be all end all attitude and they all trumpet one or the other. Pro before being applied or used should be explained why it was created. It was created to account for randomness and luck. Pdo on its own is a dumb metric. These analysts want a seat at the table and they won’t get one as they haven’t until they start looking at how to show the value of defensive play in a true trackable stat.

The current metrics are flawed because hockey is a multievent sport unlike baseball or football. IE: you throw the ball, catch the ball etc.

If you want to use PDO with weight it must be combined with individual player stats and PDo and it has to be for each individual. The long and the short of it are the Canucks have a +33 goal differential and have beaten Edmonton and Dallas this year that were playoff teams last year we as fans can use the eye test to see that they are much better defensively and improved on the PK which says to me they have played better defensively. I also think the shooting percentage argument against is flawed as the leading scorers on the team are the stars which says they are naturally more talented.

Whatever else happens I’m truly loving the games now. Sorry for the novel

Hola CANUCK FANS. What’s up with this Soucy dude? The new Tanev? Speaking of Tanev looks like Alvin is circling back on the Tanev acquisition. Not the worse player to grab for the cup run.
It’s really different checking out the draft rankings this early in the season, where do you guys see Tij Iginla finishing? Right now he’s ranked 16th and is putting up better #’s than his dad in his draft year.
- K-man25

Who's his dad?

Who's his dad?
- A_SteamingLombardi

Probably Don....

Probably Don....
- boonerbuck

Hola CANUCK FANS. What’s up with this Soucy dude? The new Tanev? Speaking of Tanev looks like Alvin is circling back on the Tanev acquisition. Not the worse player to grab for the cup run.
It’s really different checking out the draft rankings this early in the season, where do you guys see Tij Iginla finishing? Right now he’s ranked 16th and is putting up better #’s than his dad in his draft year.
- K-man25

Just got back from watching Victoria beat the Rockets 3-2 in OT. What do you want to know? He's bigger than the last game I saw him out here, at the end of last season. His skating is better and faster. He scored on a beautiful wrister. Heavy shot.

He's getting PP1 minutes and doesn't kill penalties. Cheats a bit towards offense but defends fine. He's definitely 1st round material.

They play again tomorrow night. Maybe I can get some charts and graphs together for you by then.

NYI looking like a 31st goals for team.

NYI looking like a 31st goals for team.
- Nighthawk

Pius Suter has as many goals as Bo Horvat.

NYI looking like a 31st goals for team.
- Nighthawk

They are awefull from what I seen tonight.

They are awefull from what I seen tonight.
- Bettmanhatesus

I was at the game, Bo was a non factor for most of it. They were pretty blah as a team.

I was at the game, Bo was a non factor for most of it. They were pretty blah as a team.
- claygolf83

So glad we didn't pay him. Hronek is a much better fit.

I was at the game, Bo was a non factor for most of it. They were pretty blah as a team.
- claygolf83

Outside of Barzal & Dobson they are totally blah even in style they provide zero entertainment. LL hockey.

So glad we didn't pay him. Miller is a much better fit.
- Retinalz

I fixed that for you.

Probably Don....
- boonerbuck

Outside of Barzal & Dobson they are totally blah even in style they provide zero entertainment. LL hockey.
- Nighthawk

I just caught the third, they look like a team with nothing going on, no intensity.

I just caught the third, they look like a team with nothing going on, no intensity.
- Bettmanhatesus

Changed channels at 3-1. Too boring.

Thank you, honestly, I appreciate the response.

I do understand the PDO effect that these guys like to rely on, but I don't understand how they can make absolute statements such as "They’re not this good. Not even close, actually." The team is 11-3-1 in 15, what will their narrative be the if they are 15-4-1 after 20, or 17-6-2 after 25, just short sighted close-minded bias

Another question, Canucks aren't this good based on PDO, is the opponent not that bad based on the Canucks not being that good, shouldn't be allowed to count the canucks unsustainable lucky bounces against,
- Makita

In a hyperbolic example:

If a team was winning games 4-1, from scoring 4 goals on 5 shots and allowing 1 goal on 40 shots against with 4 posts hit each game.... you'd probably say they're not as good as their record would show, or at least that the way they're playing is unsustainable over the course of a season. Basically they're getting lucky, and that luck is gonna break at some point.

The Canucks as a TEAM are shooting 16% (from what McIndoe posted). Connor McDavid's career shooting percentage is 15.4%. So unless the entire team is somehow scoring on more shots than McDavid, there's going to be some decline in their goals scored, for an example. Last year they shot 11.1%, which was 5th best in the league.

As to him saying they're not even as close to this good... 1) I think he's pushing buttons, which seems to be working on you and 2) they're not this good in the context of their analytics: not saying they're not or can't be a good team (I think he put them in the playoffs in his prediction), they're just playing a analytically dominating period that isn't sustainable (based on past data/history)

Thank you, honestly, I appreciate the response.

- Makita

Also, not sure if you read this on The Athletic (trigger warning for others), but Harm posted a pretty reasonable breakdown between the "analytics" and "eye test". A little bit dated, but a new blog:

The Vancouver Canucks are off to the best start to a season in their 53-year franchise history. Their 8-2-1 record has them sitting second in the Western Conference, behind only Vegas, and their plus-26 goal differential is tops across the league.

NHL stat leaderboards are overflowing with Canucks players. Elias Pettersson is tied with Jack Hughes for the league lead in points. Quinn Hughes has a four-point edge in points from a defenseman. Thatcher Demko leads goalies in wins and shutouts and has one of the best save percentages. Brock Boeser is tied for third in the league for goals. Filip Hronek is tied for third among defensemen in points. J.T. Miller is top 10 in points.

The Canucks are arguably the NHL’s most surprising breakout team. The vibes are immaculate. But a lot of fans are wondering: Is this hot start sustainable?

It’s become a talking point because some underlying metrics suggest Vancouver’s been really lucky.

Jack Fraser from EliteProspects (JFresh) posted a graphic showing every team’s goal differential compared to their expected goal differential (expected goal differential is calculated based on the quality of each team’s shots and scoring chances). The Canucks had the widest disparity, which implies they’ve had lots of fortuitous bounces.

PDO is another stat people are referencing, which is also a proxy for luck. PDO is the sum of a team’s five-on-five shooting percentage and save percentage. For example, if your team is scoring on 8 percent of its shots at five-on-five and your goalies are stopping 92 percent of shots (.920 save percentage), you’d add those up and have a PDO of 100.

Over a large sample, most teams’ PDO settles around 100. Last year, for example, 25 of the NHL’s 32 teams had a PDO between 99 to 101.5. If a team’s PDO is way higher than 100, it can be a sign that they’ve been quite lucky. If a team’s PDO is way lower than 100, it can be a sign that they’ve been really unlucky.

The Canucks’ PDO is being heavily discussed because it’s 108.7 through 11 games, which is not only tops in the NHL, but the highest through any team’s first 11 games since 2007-08. That massively spiked PDO is a result of Vancouver owning both the highest five-on-five shooting percentage and save percentage in the NHL right now.

Yes, these are meaningful indicators that Vancouver will cool off. But here’s why I’m not too worried about the team despite what these metrics say.

First, let’s look at the history of teams that got off to a hot start and had the benefit of an inflated PDO. We can look at what happened for these teams as useful references for Vancouver’s situation.

I started by searching for NHL teams since 2007-08 that had a .650 or better points percentage and a 104 PDO or higher in the first 11 games. Thirteen teams popped up, 12 of which made the playoffs. That’s deeply encouraging right off the bat.

But let’s drill down even deeper. Vancouver’s subpar control of expected goals has been identified as a red flag, hasn’t it? OK, then let’s look at teams like the Canucks that had a hot record and inflated PDO and ranked in the bottom third of the NHL for controlling five-on-five expected goals through their first 11 games.

This gives us five historical matches:
[table that can't copy over]

The good news is that four of these five teams ended up making the playoffs. We even see the 2009-10 Presidents’ Trophy-winning Washington Capitals and the 2016-17 Chicago Blackhawks who finished third in the NHL.

The bad news is that all four of the playoff teams lost in the first round. Washington was upset by Montreal, although it was consistently a top team in the years to come. Chicago was shockingly swept in four games and missed the playoffs the next two years. Nashville lost to the Arizona Coyotes (!) in the 2020 bubble play-in round. Colorado lost in six games to the San Jose Sharks and missed the playoffs for three consecutive seasons.

What happens for the Canucks once the playoffs begin is a conversation for another day, though. Step one is simply making the cut, especially in this city where the fans are playoff-starved. Sure, this unbelievable start could be a mirage big picture, but history tells us they should make the playoffs this season.

Another positive that’s been overlooked is that the Canucks rank 11th in the NHL in controlling 52 percent of five-on-five shot attempts. Vancouver’s in a spot where, yes, expected goal models hate them, but if you simply look at shot volume, they’ve been an above-average even-strength team.

Which metric should we trust more?

The honest answer is it’s too early to know. These are the odd discrepancies that pop up when you overanalyze small sample sizes. These metrics will be much more useful in signalling a team’s actual quality once we’re 25-30 games in.

Another important point is that Vancouver’s PDO is exaggerated by three blowout wins (8-1 against the Edmonton Oilers, 5-0 against the St. Louis Blues, 10-1 against the Sharks). If you ignored those three games, the Canucks’ PDO would be 103.4, which is much more reasonable, and they’d still have a 5-2-1 record.

The eye test will tell you that the Canucks have improved in key areas, too. Vancouver’s made a night-and-day difference in cutting down on rush chances against compared to Bruce Boudreau’s time last season (which is backed up by private analytics models).

Demko noted after Saturday’s game how much better the team has been at preventing cross-seam passes and backdoor tap-ins compared to last season. That’s been true at both five-on-five and on the improved penalty kill. Public analytics, which are predominantly based on a shot’s location, don’t account for the Canucks’ improvement at denying those deadly passes.

Vancouver’s new motion-based power play looks deadly.

One of the Canucks’ biggest problems last season was blowing leads. It was surprising and refreshing how clinically Vancouver shut down a talented Dallas Stars team in the third period on Saturday, as it surrendered just two high-danger chances. This has been an impressive pattern for most of the season.

Upgraded defensive and penalty kill personnel, Rick Tocchet’s changes and Demko’s bounceback seem like a sustainable recipe for defensive improvement this season. I certainly don’t expect the Canucks to be the second-best team at preventing goals against for the entire season but there’s reason for optimism.

Vancouver’s five-on-five goal scoring is probably the bigger question mark from a regression angle. The Canucks rank 28th in the league for five-on-five offensive shot rate, yet their goal-scoring rate is third best in the NHL because of their red-hot 13.3 percent finishing.

Overall, the Canucks are well-positioned. An 8-2-1 record gives them a big cushion in the standings, especially with how much Calgary, Seattle and Edmonton have stumbled out of the gate. A red-hot start means a lot in a league where even overtime losses are rewarded with points. Maintaining a playoff position shouldn’t be too challenging considering the Canucks have top-of-the-lineup star power, an excellent goalie and good special teams.

Colleague Dom Luszczyszyn isn’t very popular among Canucks fans these days, but his model has the team’s playoff odds at 87 percent as of Sunday night.

Yes, the Canucks are going to cool off, but nobody expects or needs them to finish near the top of the Western Conference. Pettersson, Hughes, Miller and the rest of Vancouver’s core are tired of losing. They’re sick of missing the playoffs. There are a ton of games still to be played but they might finally get another crack at playoff hockey.

NOVEMBER Schedule:

Wed home NYI
Thurs @Calgary
Sat home Seattle
Mon home SJ
Wed @Colorado
Fri @Seattle
Sat @SJ
Tue home Anaheim
Thur home VGK

Only play 2 top teams with 7 very winnable games so it’s a big month to make a ton of hay.

Boston had a PDO of 103 last year and lost in the first round.