Yes we are aware that signing bonuses count towards the CAP. What I’m implying is that the Leafs have an advantage by being one of the few teams that can entice UFAs by way of offering hefty signing bonuses. Also the Leafs are the only team that can offer WM that 8th contract year - so they can leverage this to reduce his aav further than what most other suitors could. All this to say that WM also risks something by leaving as a UFA.

Now… the leafs have $52.18M committed to 10 core players for the 2024-25 season. The CAP is expected to be around $87.5M. This would mean that they could sign WM to a $10.5 aav contract, leaving $24.81 to sign another 12 players. Not easy but doable. After surging a cap-crunch for 4 seasons we only have to navigate it for 1 more year…..2025-26 the cap will hopefully reach $91-92M (Tavares either leaves or accepts a much lower aav and the savings are passed onto Marners new contract)
- Turnitaround

8th year wont reduce AAV in Willie's case. He's Not Hyman.

He will want a certain amount PER YEAR. whether that's 7 or 8... won't matter.
It's not like "we'll offer you 73.5M... that'll be your choice of 10.5x7 or 9.1x8."
He'll take the 10.5x8 and if Leafs are not offering that, he'll look elsewhere.

Probably 10.88 X 8

Barzal managed 20 goals once in 8 seasons, 80 points once (both in rookie year) only makes $9.15M for 8 years
Bo Horvat managed 60 points twice in his career (now in his 10th season) Makes $8.5M for 8 years

You mean like that kind of overpay?

Or is it more like $7M for Anders Lee for three more years - he's on pace to score 14 points this year with a beauty -34 to boot - is it more like that kind of overpay?
- winsix

well, they still won more playoff series then Willie !

Signing bonuses count toward the CAP so not sure how you figure that will make a difference. He will be getting a signing bonus no matter which team he ends up with.

Unless you are suggesting he will accept less overall if he gets even more up front. But I doubt it as he will definitely already have some kind signing bonus.
- Nasty_Duck

I believe he's suggesting the latter. It's the way the Tavares contract was structured to get around the fact that other markets with no state income tax could have gotten him more money.

Bonuses are taxed differently in Canada (or just Ontario? I can't remember), so out of the $77M he got on that deal only $6.11M has been or will be paid to him as salary. The rest he collects via one monster check on July 1st as a signing bonus.

Sure. OK. Maybe Boston makes a hockey trade. But the broader point remains...

Contenders rarely trade UFAs. They either use them and let them walk. Or use them and re-sign them. Leafs are contenders. They've never tried to trade Nylander. Not once. He's a premier top line forward making just $7M. His next contract is $10-11M. And the Leafs easily have the cap space to do that. This summer...Bertuzzi, Domi, Brodie, Klingberg, Samsonov are all UFAs. That's $21M coming off the books. They need $3-4M of this to give Nylander a raise. It's not a problem at all.
- Cooleus

The Leafs are not contenders this year. While they're two top lines have a ton of talent.. that alone will not get them the cup. Until they can shore up their defense and goaltending I'd be surprised if they make it past the second round. Not trying to be negative... just an observation. The Red Wings back in the early 90's had the same issues the Leafs have now. Overall team defense wasn't good enough... it wasn't until Scotty Bowman took the reigns and made them learn how to play defense and commit to playing a better two-way game they finally became champs.

The Leafs are not contenders this year. While they're two top lines have a ton of talent.. that alone will not get them the cup. Until they can shore up their defense and goaltending I'd be surprised if they make it past the first round. Not trying to be negative... just an observation. The Red Wings back in the early 90's had the same issues the Leafs have now. Overall team defense wasn't good enough... it wasn't until Scotty Bowman took the reigns and made them learn how to play defense and commit to playing a better two-way game they finally became champs.
- Vladdie_Kon1

All the more reason why they should try and trade Nylander while his value is at its highest given his impending UFA status. They aren't going to be able to afford to keep him unless they lose in a trade by somehow trading Marner.

It's been said time and time again that this core can't get it done. I agree, trade Nylander in a package for some goalie/defensive help and go from there.

The Leafs are not contenders this year. While they're two top lines have a ton of talent.. that alone will not get them the cup. Until they can shore up their defense and goaltending I'd be surprised if they make it past the first round. Not trying to be negative... just an observation. The Red Wings back in the early 90's had the same issues the Leafs have now. Overall team defense wasn't good enough... it wasn't until Scotty Bowman took the reigns and made them learn how to play defense and commit to playing a better two-way game they finally became champs.
- Vladdie_Kon1

Did I say the Leafs will win the Cup? Probably not. They have flaws.

But not a contender? Huh? They stand 4th in the Eastern Conference. They've already beaten Tampa twice. They have a top 10 PP. Top 10 PK. Top 10 offense. They view their window as wide open and made aggressive moves this summer to make a run. Turning around and selling a top winger making just $7M isn't on their radar. It never was. They never once tried to trade him.

Yes we are aware that signing bonuses count towards the CAP. What I’m implying is that the Leafs have an advantage by being one of the few teams that can entice UFAs by way of offering hefty signing bonuses. Also the Leafs are the only team that can offer WM that 8th contract year - so they can leverage this to reduce his aav further than what most other suitors could. All this to say that WM also risks something by leaving as a UFA.

Now… the leafs have $52.18M committed to 10 core players for the 2024-25 season. The CAP is expected to be around $87.5M. This would mean that they could sign WM to a $10.5 aav contract, leaving $24.81 to sign another 12 players. Not easy but doable. After surging a cap-crunch for 4 seasons we only have to navigate it for 1 more year…..2025-26 the cap will hopefully reach $91-92M (Tavares either leaves or accepts a much lower aav and the savings are passed onto Marners new contract)
- Turnitaround

This all makes sense. But this means that nothing changes. We keep the core, and give them raises, while the supporting cast remains weak. To me this just keeps status quo! No? Status quo doesn’t work.

All the more reason why they should try and trade Nylander while his value is at its highest given his impending UFA status. They aren't going to be able to afford to keep him unless they lose in a trade by somehow trading Marner.

It's been said time and time again that this core can't get it done. I agree, trade Nylander in a package for some goalie/defensive help and go from there.
- Kinger34

Bang on bud.

They should obviously continue, ala mr Augello, claim he is waaaaay overrated and over paid.
Offer him 4,5 mill dollars and call him greedy and not serious in his love for the Leafs if he declines.
Then offer Marner 17,5 because you have the cap space to do it and MM has potential and is atleast 12 times better than Nylander.
Love american and canadian players, europeans should be happy to have a contract and if they hold out.....smear them with whatever bile you can.

They can afford him, and they will
- winsix

No, nope, can't say that. That's Dubas' line, lawsuit inbound.

8th year wont reduce AAV in Willie's case. He's Not Hyman.

He will want a certain amount PER YEAR. whether that's 7 or 8... won't matter.
It's not like "we'll offer you 73.5M... that'll be your choice of 10.5x7 or 9.1x8."
He'll take the 10.5x8 and if Leafs are not offering that, he'll look elsewhere.
- Nasty_Duck

Actually that is exactly how it works in the real NHL in the salary cap era. Players and their agents know it. It makes too much sense for WN’s camp not to ask for term and money. Max term is 8 years for the team that holds your bird rights while others are limited to 7. We have heard chatter for months now that WM is looking for something North of $10M. We have seen AM and MM not sign 8year max deals. We have seen that WN sign a 6 year contract.

As a general rule of thumb, and with the cap going up, top tier UFAs tend get more on the open market. So if WN’s “ask” to Toronto is $11M x 8 = $88 then why would he go to Free Agency to ask for less?? How many times have you chosen to switch employers for the same pay you are getting at your previous employer. I’m guessing never. No, as a UFA it would take a 7yr and 12.75avv to get him. How many teams do you think are lining up to pay WN more than McD or MacK?

Now common sense, whether you agree or not, 8th year is a factor in the real NHL

Actually that is exactly how it works in the real NHL in the salary cap era. Players and their agents know it. It makes too much sense for WN’s camp not to ask for term and money. Max term is 8 years for the team that holds your bird rights while others are limited to 7. We have heard chatter for months now that WM is looking for something. North of $10M. We have seen AM and MM not sign 8year max deals. We have seen that WN sign a 6 year contract.

As a general rule of thumb, and with the cap going up, top tier UFAs tend get more on the open market. So if WN’s “ask” to Toronto is $11M x 8 = $88 then why would he go to Freer Agency to ask for less?? How many times have you chosen to switch employers for the same pay you are getting at your previous employer. I’m guessing never. No, as a UFA it would take a 7yr and 12.75avv to get him. How many teams do you think are lining up to pay WN more than McD or MacK?

Now common sense, whether you agree or not, 8th year is a factor in the real NHL
- Turnitaround

Actually that is exactly how it works in the real NHL in the salary cap era. Players and their agents know it. It makes too much sense for WN’s camp not to ask for term and money. Max term is 8 years for the team that holds your bird rights while others are limited to 7. We have heard chatter for months now that WM is looking for something North of $10M. We have seen AM and MM not sign 8year max deals. We have seen that WN sign a 6 year contract.

As a general rule of thumb, and with the cap going up, top tier UFAs tend get more on the open market. So if WN’s “ask” to Toronto is $11M x 8 = $88 then why would he go to Free Agency to ask for less?? How many times have you chosen to switch employers for the same pay you are getting at your previous employer. I’m guessing never. No, as a UFA it would take a 7yr and 12.75avv to get him. How many teams do you think are lining up to pay WN more than McD or MacK?

Now common sense, whether you agree or not, 8th year is a factor in the real NHL
- Turnitaround

Well if the Leafs offer WN 8 years x 10.5 (or whatever) he certainly might take that.

I was disputing the fact that 8th year will lower the AAV.

WN will sign with whatever team offers him the most PER YEAR. If he signs a 7 year deal with another team he can always sign a new contract (for more money) when the 7-year contract finishes. In the long run her will maximize his value while at peak of his career.

This is all assuming $$ are his motivating factor. If he REALLY wants to stay a Leaf maybe he signs for less. But in that case the 8th year is not a significant factor.

You reference players like AM and MM signing for < 8years. So that kind of deflates your argument.

Did I say the Leafs will win the Cup? Probably not. They have flaws.

But not a contender? Huh? They stand 4th in the Eastern Conference. They've already beaten Tampa twice. They have a top 10 PP. Top 10 PK. Top 10 offense. They view their window as wide open and made aggressive moves this summer to make a run. Turning around and selling a top winger making just $7M isn't on their radar. It never was. They never once tried to trade him.
- Cooleus

Kinger34 and Bullot are exactly right.

If I'm a Leaf's fan I'd rather move him when his value is at his highest with UFA looming... and address the real deficiencies (team defense and goaltending). Otherwise I don't think this team will make it to the Cup finals. Yes, the stats you mentioned are encouraging and they may or may not hold up until the playoffs start. But If even one or two (or more) of their top players on the top two lines go down... then what ??? Their scoring depth after the top two lines is pretty thin. I've already been to this rodeo with the Red Wings in the 90's. The Leaf's core were not able to get it done the last few years... and I don't see it happening this year either with Nylander. Especially after how easily they got dismantled by Florida in playoffs last year. Anything is possible but that's what my gut is telling me.

Well if the Leafs offer WN 8 years x 10.5 (or whatever) he certainly might take that.

I was disputing the fact that 8th year will lower the AAV.

WN will sign with whatever team offers him the most PER YEAR. If he signs a 7 year deal with another team he can always sign a new contract (for more money) when the 7-year contract finishes. In the long run her will maximize his value while at peak of his career.

This is all assuming $$ are his motivating factor. If he REALLY wants to stay a Leaf maybe he signs for less. But in that case the 8th year is not a significant factor.

You reference players like AM and MM signing for < 8years. So that kind of deflates your argument.
- Nasty_Duck

The 8th year has appeal when you know this might be your last contract, or that your skills will materially decline. So a guy like Huberdeau getting an 8th year until age 37 was meaningful to him. Maybe guys like Zibanejad or Couturier or Parayko felt the same. But if Nylander signs 8 years he'll still be a UFA at age 35. If he feels he'll be somewhat valuable at 35, then he's still looking at say another 2-3 year deal, like say Pavelski has done. No different than guys like MacKinnon, Larkin, Tkachuk who anticipate being UFAs by age 32,33,34 and can cash in again on a 3-4-5 year deal. So if the Leafs offer $11M x 8 years, and someone else does $11M x 7 years...he may find the 7-year deal more appealing. If he's confident that he won't be washed up by age 34.

Time to get a Lightning blogger, perhaps.
- GalacticStone

and about 7 other teams need one as well

Kinger34 and Bullot are exactly right.

If I'm a Leaf's fan I'd rather move him when his value is at his highest with UFA looming... and address the real deficiencies (team defense and goaltending). Otherwise I don't think this team will make it to the Cup finals. Yes, the stats you mentioned are encouraging and they may or may not hold up until the playoffs start. But If even one or two (or more) of their top players on the top two lines go down... then what ??? Their scoring depth after the top two lines is pretty thin. I've already been to this rodeo with the Red Wings in the 90's. The Leaf's core were not able to get it done the last few years... and I don't see it happening this year either with Nylander. Especially after how easily they got dismantled by Florida in playoffs last year. Anything is possible but that's what my gut is telling me.
- Vladdie_Kon1

The problem with all that is that it sounds great in theory, but how many teams out there meet all of the following criteria:

- Have a quality goaltender that they're willing and able to trade
- Same, but for a defenseman
- Have the cap space to accommodate Nylander's current cap hit in the short term
- Have the cap space to accommodate Nylander's next contract
- Are in a position to make a trade for a player like him right now
- Are a team that Nylander would be willing to sign an extension with

There really isn't anyone that I think would check all those boxes. You could probably eliminate the entire rest of the Atlantic division right off the bat.

- eichiefs9

Well if the Leafs offer WN 8 years x 10.5 (or whatever) he certainly might take that.

I was disputing the fact that 8th year will lower the AAV.

WN will sign with whatever team offers him the most PER YEAR. If he signs a 7 year deal with another team he can always sign a new contract (for more money) when the 7-year contract finishes. In the long run her will maximize his value while at peak of his career.

This is all assuming $$ are his motivating factor. If he REALLY wants to stay a Leaf maybe he signs for less. But in that case the 8th year is not a significant factor.

You reference players like AM and MM signing for < 8years. So that kind of deflates your argument.
- Nasty_Duck

why is taking the 8th year now is tempting for WN and his agent….he will be 35 when his 7 year contract expires. Teams will be more wary of his production which would have likely not be worth $10+M he will sign for now in 2031. He will need a team to sign him for $7+ To make up for the earnings lost by not taking that 8th year .

Ok let’s assume that a team like ANA, PHI, or BUF wants to pursue WN as a UFA. They believe BT is offering 10.5 aav. So one of them offers an 11.5aav for 7 years. That’s a $80.5M contract. BT can call Lewis and counteroffer with $84M spread over 8year. What does WN care how the aav is structured if he is not giving up any dollars? PLUS BT can offer $9.6M of thr aav as an annual signing bonus. Now the 3 teams mentioned above will see this from a mile away if they have half a brain. So if any of them want to make a serious offer that prices WN outside of BT’s hypothetical budget then they have to make an offer that carries an aav of $12.75M for 7 years (89.25M). To match BT would have to do $11.15x 8 and he pay choose not to. But would ANA or PHI want to make WN the 2nd highest paid player in the league at $12.75??? The only team crazy and desperate enough might be BUF and they have some cap space to make it happen.

I saw someone in this thread (don't recall who) who said that the Leafs are not a contender.

Who looked at St. Louis' roster before the 2018-2019 season and said - "That's a contender!" ??

I would argue that the current Leafs roster is every bit as good, or better than the 2018/2019 Blues. If that squad could do it, this one could as well.

Is it likely? Well, that can be debated. But, to say they aren't contenders is not entirely right.

11.25 was not the number that got Pastrank signed. He looked at the number on the bottom line - 90. He looked at the accoutrements (bonuses, clauses).

why is taking the 8th year now is tempting for WN and his agent….he will be 35 when his 7 year contract expires. Teams will be more wary of his production which would have likely not be worth $10+M he will sign for now in 2031. He will need a team to sign him for $7+ To make up for the earnings lost by not taking that 8th year .

Ok let’s assume that a team like ANA, PHI, or BUF wants to pursue WN as a UFA. They believe BT is offering 10.5 aav. So one of them offers an 11.5aav for 7 years. That’s a $80.5M contract. BT can call Lewis and counteroffer with $84M spread over 8year. What does WN care how the aav is structured if he is not giving up any dollars? PLUS BT can offer $9.6M of thr aav as an annual signing bonus. Now the 3 teams mentioned above will see this from a mile away if they have half a brain. So if any of them want to make a serious offer that prices WN outside of BT’s hypothetical budget then they have to make an offer that carries an aav of $12.75M for 7 years (89.25M). To match BT would have to do $11.15x 8 and he pay choose not to. But would ANA or PHI want to make WN the 2nd highest paid player in the league at $12.75??? The only team crazy and desperate enough might be BUF and they have some cap space to make it happen.
- Turnitaround

80.5M over 7 years vs 84M over 8 years.
To make up the difference his next contract would only have to be 3.5M (same total amount over 8 years). You really think he won't be able to get that? Or a LOT more?

By 2031, players scoring 55 points will be signing AAVs for 7M. WN will have no problem getting a contract like that at age 34 unless his production falls off a cliff.

We'll have to agree to disagree on the 8th year having a big impact, or not, on lowering the AVV

11.25 was not the number that got Pastrank signed. He looked at the number on the bottom line - 90. He looked at the accoutrements (bonuses, clauses).
- Turnitaround

Sure he saw 90... which translates to the 6th highest AAV for 2023-2024.

https://www.sportingnews..../sqhzbstxo7fnkdhfcerjo5po

Willy will look at that aspect as well when negotiating his new contract.

I saw someone in this thread (don't recall who) who said that the Leafs are not a contender.

Who looked at St. Louis' roster before the 2018-2019 season and said - "That's a contender!" ??

I would argue that the current Leafs roster is every bit as good, or better than the 2018/2019 Blues. If that squad could do it, this one could as well.

Is it likely? Well, that can be debated. But, to say they aren't contenders is not entirely right.
- GalacticStone

his team lost to the Leafs in Sweden and he's still bitter over it.