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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Podcast Sunday – Off The Post Radio and The Leafs Convo
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Scabeh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: The Slovakian Jagr, QC
Joined: 02.25.2007

Nov 20 @ 10:43 AM ET
Never heard of him? How old and did we draft him? Also, who is his daddy and what does he do?
- systemtool


He's Brian Bellows (love that guy) son.

You didn't draft him and he's already 25.

He's a lesser version of his dad really, small, feisty and some talent for sure as a former first round pick.

But he's been a fringe NHLer for a while now.


systemtool
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Real men always have to poo, ON
Joined: 09.12.2007

Nov 20 @ 10:43 AM ET
I say trade him if you cant sign him by the TDL


i wouldnt risk him walking for nothing.
I dont care how it effects the team now. but I bet im in the minority

- senstroll


I don't disagree, I see both sides of the argument. That said I'd rather give him 11 over 8 than walk for nothing too. Tough situation all around as there are legit pro and con arguments to all of it, from a trade to a contract etc

This is why I want Kane besides the fact I think he has a little bit left in the tank if he's healthy to have flashes of his former self. Get him and you can maybe trade Nylander then for a boatload of futures or trade for a dman, or trade Robertson as part of a package for D help
systemtool
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Real men always have to poo, ON
Joined: 09.12.2007

Nov 20 @ 10:44 AM ET
Can't see there being space for him with guys like Mcann (sp) and Robertson deserving, but definitely seems worth keeping an eye on
Scabeh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: The Slovakian Jagr, QC
Joined: 02.25.2007

Nov 20 @ 10:45 AM ET
I don't disagree, I see both sides of the argument. That said I'd rather give him 11 over 8 than walk for nothing too. Tough situation all around as there are legit pro and con arguments to all of it, from a trade to a contract etc
- systemtool


The only way the Leafs trade him is they are certain they can't/won't resign him AND they find a deal that makes them at least as good going in the playoffs.

It's a tough situation to say the least.

I think they keep him unless he asks for an insane amount of money.
systemtool
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Real men always have to poo, ON
Joined: 09.12.2007

Nov 20 @ 10:47 AM ET
The only way the Leafs trade him is they are certain they can't/won't resign him AND they find a deal that makes them at least as good going in the playoffs.

It's a tough situation to say the least.

I think they keep him unless he asks for an insane amount of money.

- Scabeh


Man Slavkovksy is just sitting there in my hockey keeper pool. I actually think he could become a good player but I don't know who to drop for him. I'm actually hoping someone on my team goes IR to make the spot, but half my team is Leafs

senstroll
Location: Leafs AAV Champs, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Nov 20 @ 10:52 AM ET
I don't disagree, I see both sides of the argument. That said I'd rather give him 11 over 8 than walk for nothing too. Tough situation all around as there are legit pro and con arguments to all of it, from a trade to a contract etc

This is why I want Kane besides the fact I think he has a little bit left in the tank if he's healthy to have flashes of his former self. Get him and you can maybe trade Nylander then for a boatload of futures or trade for a dman, or trade Robertson as part of a package for D help

- systemtool


if the leafs were willing to do 11x8, wouldnt that be done already?

seems steep. even with how willy is playing at the moment
Scabeh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: The Slovakian Jagr, QC
Joined: 02.25.2007

Nov 20 @ 10:53 AM ET
Man Slavkovksy is just sitting there in my hockey keeper pool. I actually think he could become a good player but I don't know who to drop for him. I'm actually hoping someone on my team goes IR to make the spot, but half my team is Leafs
- systemtool


It's gonna take a while until he becomes fantasy relevant imo.

I mean sure he's on a hot streak right now with 4 points in his last 4-5 games and he's playing with way more confidence that he was last year but there are most likely better options out there unless you can afford to be real patient.
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Nov 20 @ 10:57 AM ET
I say trade him if you cant sign him by the TDL


i wouldnt risk him walking for nothing.
I dont care how it effects the team now. but I bet im in the minority

- senstroll

Im game.
Unless they can do a sign and trade after the season is over.
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Nov 20 @ 10:58 AM ET
I say trade him if you cant sign him by the TDL


i wouldnt risk him walking for nothing.
I dont care how it effects the team now. but I bet im in the minority

- senstroll


Only 1 team can offer him 8 years. That's a huge advantage to lowering the AAV.

Where does he want to be ...Toronto. Who can pay him the most ...Toronto. Where does he know he fits and has a great chance to win ...a small handful of teams that includes Toronto.

I don't see how he doesn't end up signing in Toronto. 7 x 11.25 in Whereverville could be financially the same as 8 x 10 in Toronto. Factor in all the other financial bonuses of playing in Toronto (upfront bonuses, sponsorships, etc...).

Adam French
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Isn't Cooley 5"11? You know who else is 5"11? Sydney Crosby. - Scabeh
Joined: 04.06.2011

Nov 20 @ 10:58 AM ET
Never heard of him? How old and did we draft him? Also, who is his daddy and what does he do?
- systemtool

He's some pooplord with no future.
senstroll
Location: Leafs AAV Champs, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Nov 20 @ 11:02 AM ET
Im game.
Unless they can do a sign and trade after the season is over.

- Fakepartofme


do those ever happen?
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Rented to Bruce Banner ;)
Joined: 08.30.2006

Nov 20 @ 11:03 AM ET
I say trade him if you cant sign him by the TDL


i wouldnt risk him walking for nothing.
I dont care how it effects the team now. but I bet im in the minority

- senstroll


Well you are not letting walk for nothing, you're getting cap space in return.
senstroll
Location: Leafs AAV Champs, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Nov 20 @ 11:08 AM ET
Only 1 team can offer him 8 years. That's a huge advantage to lowering the AAV.

Where does he want to be ...Toronto. Who can pay him the most ...Toronto. Where does he know he fits and has a great chance to win ...a small handful of teams that includes Toronto.

I don't see how he doesn't end up signing in Toronto. 7 x 11.25 in Whereverville could be financially the same as 8 x 10 in Toronto. Factor in all the other financial bonuses of playing in Toronto (upfront bonuses, sponsorships, etc...).

- The Law


i dont feel like there is ever that discount. if its 7 x 11.25 in Whereverville
it will be 8 x 11.25 in Toronto
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Nov 20 @ 11:09 AM ET
The only way the Leafs trade him is they are certain they can't/won't resign him AND they find a deal that makes them at least as good going in the playoffs.

It's a tough situation to say the least.

I think they keep him unless he asks for an insane amount of money.

- Scabeh


I think it's tougher for us fans.

But really it's pretty simple. In the summer the Leafs had him grouped into that second tier elite forward category (Meier, Larkin, Barzal, Forsberg) - 8.5 - 9. Willie took a pass and bet on himself. So far it's paying off.

This year (small sample) he's playing above that level and looks more like Panarin or Pasternak ...guys making $11M+. Panarin got a 7 yr deal and left town to get it so that numbers inflated over an 8 yr.

I don't know if Willie can demand Pasta $$? If the Leafs put ($80M) 8 x 10$ on the table I don't see Willie leaving town for $80M over 7 years.

Would a team break the market and pay Willie 7 x $12 to get him to leave? I don't think so but ....maybe.
senstroll
Location: Leafs AAV Champs, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Nov 20 @ 11:09 AM ET
Well you are not letting walk for nothing, you're getting cap space in return.
- dmnted



If I trade him, I have cap space, plus a 1st, good prospect and ++
senstroll
Location: Leafs AAV Champs, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Nov 20 @ 11:11 AM ET
I think it's tougher for us fans.

But really it's pretty simple. In the summer the Leafs had him grouped into that second tier elite forward category (Meier, Larkin, Barzal, Forsberg) - 8.5 - 9. Willie took a pass and bet on himself. So far it's paying off.

This year (small sample) he's playing above that level and looks more like Panarin or Pasternak ...guys making $11M+. Panarin got a 7 yr deal and left town to get it so that numbers inflated over an 8 yr.

I don't know if Willie can demand Pasta $$? If the Leafs put ($80M) 8 x 10$ on the table I don't see Willie leaving town for $80M over 7 years.

Would a team break the market and pay Willie 7 x $12 to get him to leave? I don't think so but ....maybe.

- The Law


a team like Chicago should, they have a ton of space
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Nov 20 @ 11:12 AM ET
i dont feel like there is every that discount. if its 7 x 11.25 in Whereverville
it will be 8 x 11.25 in Toronto

- senstroll


That's our shared PTSD talking. In reality that'd be some terrible negotiating by Tree.
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Nov 20 @ 11:15 AM ET
do those ever happen?
- senstroll

Didnt tree just do it with tkafack?
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Nov 20 @ 11:16 AM ET
a team like Chicago should, they have a ton of space
- senstroll


So if you're Willie ...

You leave your home and teammates in Toronto and the $80M on the table to go to Chicago for $84M?

This doesn't really happen very often in the NHL.

The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Nov 20 @ 11:17 AM ET
Didnt tree just do it with tkafack?
- Fakepartofme


No ..he was a RFA. Calgary owned him for another year.
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Nov 20 @ 11:17 AM ET
Well you are not letting walk for nothing, you're getting cap space in return.
- dmnted

Cap space is not a return, you get that with any departing player.
Nylander is a high end asset, you need to get some sort of assets back if he is leaving.
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Nov 20 @ 11:18 AM ET
Only 1 team can offer him 8 years. That's a huge advantage to lowering the AAV.

Where does he want to be ...Toronto. Who can pay him the most ...Toronto. Where does he know he fits and has a great chance to win ...a small handful of teams that includes Toronto.

I don't see how he doesn't end up signing in Toronto. 7 x 11.25 in Whereverville could be financially the same as 8 x 10 in Toronto. Factor in all the other financial bonuses of playing in Toronto (upfront bonuses, sponsorships, etc...).

- The Law


Just to make it simple on me, this looks strictly at current Cap Hit % and compares it to next year's projected $87.5m cap ceiling - which if you're Nylander's agent is the cap ceiling you're going to use - and ignores UFA/RFA and positional variations. I've bolded the guys who I felt were probably usable in the comps one way or another. These are the top-50. The conclusion that I draw is that there is no conclusion you can draw. His next contract could be ANYWHERE from $8.5m (not bloody likely) to $11.5m.

Connor McDavid @ 16.7% projects at 13.94m
Nathan MacKinnon @ 15.3% projects at 12.78m
Auston Matthews @ 14.6% projects at 12.19m
Erik Karlsson @ 14.5% projects at 12.11m
Sidney Crosby @ 14.5% projects at 12.11m
Artemi Panarin @ 14.3% projects at 11.94m
Carey Price @ 14% projects at 11.69m
Anze Kopitar @ 14% projects at 11.69m
John Tavares @ 13.8% projects at 11.52m
Drew Doughty @ 13.8% projects at 11.52m
David Pastrnak @ 13.6% projects at 11.36m
Mitchell Marner @ 13.4% projects at 11.19m
Jack Eichel @ 13.3% projects at 11.11m

Jamie Benn @ 13% projects at 10.86m
Jonathan Huberdeau @ 12.7% projects at 10.6m
Tyler Seguin @ 12.4% projects at 10.35m

Sergei Bobrovsky @ 12.3% projects at 10.27m
Aleksander Barkov @ 12.3% projects at 10.27m
Mark Stone @ 11.9% projects at 9.94m
Nikita Kucherov @ 11.9% projects at 9.94m
Johnny Gaudreau @ 11.8% projects at 9.85m

Zachary Werenski @ 11.8% projects at 9.85m
Alex Ovechkin @ 11.7% projects at 9.77m
Adam Fox @ 11.7% projects at 9.77m
Seth Jones @ 11.7% projects at 9.77m
Brayden Point @ 11.7% projects at 9.77m
Charlie McAvoy @ 11.7% projects at 9.77m
Andrei Vasilevskiy @ 11.7% projects at 9.77m
Steven Stamkos @ 11.6% projects at 9.69m
Matthew Tkachuk @ 11.5% projects at 9.6m
Darnell Nurse @ 11.3% projects at 9.44m
Mikko Rantanen @ 11.3% projects at 9.44m
Nicklas Bäckström @ 11.3% projects at 9.44m
Jeff Skinner @ 11.3% projects at 9.44m
Leon Draisaitl @ 11.3% projects at 9.44m
Mathew Barzal @ 11.1% projects at 9.27m
Roman Josi @ 11.1% projects at 9.27m
Kirill Kaprizov @ 11% projects at 9.19m
Cale Makar @ 11% projects at 9.19m
Dougie Hamilton @ 11% projects at 9.19m
Alex Pietrangelo @ 10.8% projects at 9.02m
Timo Meier @ 10.5% projects at 8.77m
Dylan Larkin @ 10.5% projects at 8.77m
Patrik Laine @ 10.5% projects at 8.77m
Mika Zibanejad @ 10.4% projects at 8.68m
Sebastian Aho @ 10.4% projects at 8.68m

Filip Forsberg @ 10.3% projects at 8.6m
Bo Horvat @ 10.3% projects at 8.6m

Mikhail Sergachev @ 10.3% projects at 8.6m
Pierre-Luc Dubois @ 10.2% projects at 8.52m

Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Nov 20 @ 11:19 AM ET
No ..he was a RFA. Calgary owned him for another year.
- The Law


Seems like a sign and trade to me, no?

"The Flames received Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar, prospect Cole Schwindt and a conditional first-round pick in 2025. As part of the sign-and-trade, Tkachuk landed a contract for eight years and $76 million.Nov 15, 2022"
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Nov 20 @ 11:19 AM ET
Cap space is not a return, you get that with any departing player.
Nylander is a high end asset, you need to get some sort of assets back if he is leaving.

- Fakepartofme


If, after the trade, you can remain equally as competitive this year. Which I don't see being a reality.
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Nov 20 @ 11:21 AM ET
So if you're Willie ...

You leave your home and teammates in Toronto and the $80M on the table to go to Chicago for $84M?

This doesn't really happen very often in the NHL.

- The Law

Gets a chance to play with Bedard.
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