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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Podcast Sunday – Off The Post Radio and The Leafs Convo
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Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Nov 20 @ 11:24 AM ET
If, after the trade, you can remain equally as competitive this year. Which I don't see being a reality.
- The Law

Maybe as systemtool suggested, you trade willie for whatever returns; picks, prospects or dmen and sign kane for 2 years.
Extend the dman/men or sign a different one via FA....maybe Hanifin?
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Nov 20 @ 11:28 AM ET
He's Brian Bellows (love that guy) son.

You didn't draft him and he's already 25.

He's a lesser version of his dad really, small, feisty and some talent for sure as a former first round pick.

But he's been a fringe NHLer for a while now.

- Scabeh

Perhaps I'm reading CapFriendly wrong, but I don't think we have him on an NHL contract.

So if you really like him...
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Nov 20 @ 11:28 AM ET
Just to make it simple on me, this looks strictly at current Cap Hit % and compares it to next year's projected $87.5m cap ceiling - which if you're Nylander's agent is the cap ceiling you're going to use - and ignores UFA/RFA and positional variations. I've bolded the guys who I felt were probably usable in the comps one way or another. These are the top-50. The conclusion that I draw is that there is no conclusion you can draw. His next contract could be ANYWHERE from $8.5m (not bloody likely) to $11.5m.

Connor McDavid @ 16.7% projects at 13.94m
Nathan MacKinnon @ 15.3% projects at 12.78m
Auston Matthews @ 14.6% projects at 12.19m
Erik Karlsson @ 14.5% projects at 12.11m
Sidney Crosby @ 14.5% projects at 12.11m
Artemi Panarin @ 14.3% projects at 11.94m
Carey Price @ 14% projects at 11.69m
Anze Kopitar @ 14% projects at 11.69m
John Tavares @ 13.8% projects at 11.52m
Drew Doughty @ 13.8% projects at 11.52m
David Pastrnak @ 13.6% projects at 11.36m
Mitchell Marner @ 13.4% projects at 11.19m
Jack Eichel @ 13.3% projects at 11.11m

Jamie Benn @ 13% projects at 10.86m
Jonathan Huberdeau @ 12.7% projects at 10.6m
Tyler Seguin @ 12.4% projects at 10.35m

Sergei Bobrovsky @ 12.3% projects at 10.27m
Aleksander Barkov @ 12.3% projects at 10.27m
Mark Stone @ 11.9% projects at 9.94m
Nikita Kucherov @ 11.9% projects at 9.94m
Johnny Gaudreau @ 11.8% projects at 9.85m

Zachary Werenski @ 11.8% projects at 9.85m
Alex Ovechkin @ 11.7% projects at 9.77m
Adam Fox @ 11.7% projects at 9.77m
Seth Jones @ 11.7% projects at 9.77m
Brayden Point @ 11.7% projects at 9.77m
Charlie McAvoy @ 11.7% projects at 9.77m
Andrei Vasilevskiy @ 11.7% projects at 9.77m
Steven Stamkos @ 11.6% projects at 9.69m
Matthew Tkachuk @ 11.5% projects at 9.6m
Darnell Nurse @ 11.3% projects at 9.44m
Mikko Rantanen @ 11.3% projects at 9.44m
Nicklas Bäckström @ 11.3% projects at 9.44m
Jeff Skinner @ 11.3% projects at 9.44m
Leon Draisaitl @ 11.3% projects at 9.44m
Mathew Barzal @ 11.1% projects at 9.27m
Roman Josi @ 11.1% projects at 9.27m
Kirill Kaprizov @ 11% projects at 9.19m
Cale Makar @ 11% projects at 9.19m
Dougie Hamilton @ 11% projects at 9.19m
Alex Pietrangelo @ 10.8% projects at 9.02m
Timo Meier @ 10.5% projects at 8.77m
Dylan Larkin @ 10.5% projects at 8.77m
Patrik Laine @ 10.5% projects at 8.77m
Mika Zibanejad @ 10.4% projects at 8.68m
Sebastian Aho @ 10.4% projects at 8.68m

Filip Forsberg @ 10.3% projects at 8.6m
Bo Horvat @ 10.3% projects at 8.6m

Mikhail Sergachev @ 10.3% projects at 8.6m
Pierre-Luc Dubois @ 10.2% projects at 8.52m

- Monkeypunk


It's a good picture but this list is a little misleading b/c it doesn't factor in important variables like how many years, what years, RFA v. UFA.

Use "C.F. Signings" and reduce it to forwards signing as UFA's for 6+ years and greater than $9M AAV and the list gets really really short.

Cross reference that with a look a offensive production (P/G for example) over the past 3 years and compare all forwards.

Willies gone from being very comparable to Meier, Barzal, etc... to now being more in line with Pasta. It's only 17 games but if he puts in a full season of this I think he gone from being a 9.25AAV to being in that $10-$11 range.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Nov 20 @ 11:30 AM ET
It's a good picture but this list is a little misleading b/c it doesn't factor in important variables like how many years, what years, RFA v. UFA.

Use "C.F. Signings" and reduce it to forwards signing as UFA's for 6+ years and greater than $9M AAV and the list gets really really short.

Cross reference that with a look a offensive production (P/G for example) over the past 3 years and compare all forwards.

Willies gone from being very comparable to Meier, Barzal, etc... to now being more in line with Pasta. It's only 17 games but if he puts in a full season of this I think he gone from being a 9.25AAV to being in that $10-$11 range.

- The Law


If he can go up that fast he can fall that fast too.

Let the season play out.
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Nov 20 @ 11:30 AM ET
Perhaps I'm reading CapFriendly wrong, but I don't think we have him on an NHL contract.

So if you really like him...

- Atomic Wedgie


He was on a Marlies PTO - I'm not sure if they converted that to a full-time contract, but it is definitely an AHL contract only if so.
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Nov 20 @ 11:30 AM ET
Seems like a sign and trade to me, no?

"The Flames received Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar, prospect Cole Schwindt and a conditional first-round pick in 2025. As part of the sign-and-trade, Tkachuk landed a contract for eight years and $76 million.Nov 15, 2022"

- Fakepartofme


But different with 88. He'll be a UFA ...you'd be trading "negotiating rights" (not worth much) whereas with Tkachuk FLA knew they had him for at least 1 year.
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Nov 20 @ 11:31 AM ET
Gets a chance to play with Bedard.
- Fakepartofme


And get a seasons pass to that really cool architectural boat tour.
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Nov 20 @ 11:31 AM ET
But different with 88. He'll be a UFA ...you'd be trading "negotiating rights" (not worth much) whereas with Tkachuk FLA knew they had him for at least 1 year.
- The Law

True
But at least it would be something
Adam French
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Isn't Cooley 5"11? You know who else is 5"11? Sydney Crosby. - Scabeh
Joined: 04.06.2011

Nov 20 @ 11:39 AM ET
Guys. They're not trading him. It's ride and or die.
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Nov 20 @ 11:39 AM ET
If he can go up that fast he can fall that fast too.

Let the season play out.

- Santo_44


Absolutely ....and 88 has gone in slumps before. Never buy in a sellers market until you have to.
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Nov 20 @ 11:42 AM ET
It's a good picture but this list is a little misleading b/c it doesn't factor in important variables like how many years, what years, RFA v. UFA.

Use "C.F. Signings" and reduce it to forwards signing as UFA's for 6+ years and greater than $9M AAV and the list gets really really short.

Cross reference that with a look a offensive production (P/G for example) over the past 3 years and compare all forwards.

Willies gone from being very comparable to Meier, Barzal, etc... to now being more in line with Pasta. It's only 17 games but if he puts in a full season of this I think he gone from being a 9.25AAV to being in that $10-$11 range.

- The Law


That's the problem with making assertions 15 games into the season. Right now he's on pace for 130 points. That seems highly unlikely. Aardvark's head would explode. I tend to think of Willy as closer to Rantanen or Kaprizov - and you're right - they both gave up more RFA years than UFA years in those deals and the deals were shorter terms.

If he sustains a relative level of play and sits at 50 goals and 100 points at the end of the season, then Pastrnak is definitely the measuring stick they'll use.

Because he's streaky, he'll likely cool down and still post a career year - like 45 goals and 95 points - and sit in the 12.5% range, which is about $10.9m. The real danger here is that Nylander is 27 - so this is very likely the peak of his career - maybe next year will be as good, but small declination will start to appear after and by the time any 8 year deal is completed, 35 and 36 year old Nylander will be a shadow of this year's player.
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Nov 20 @ 11:42 AM ET
Maybe as systemtool suggested, you trade willie for whatever returns; picks, prospects or dmen and sign kane for 2 years.
Extend the dman/men or sign a different one via FA....maybe Hanifin?

- Fakepartofme


My opinion ....the drop off from Willie to Kane is big so any trade would have to come with a plan to be better now and later. If some team offered up an elite blue liner or a huge package of futures (that you could then turn into things that made you better now and in the future) then I agree ...you gotta consider it.

Dozzer
Referee
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow since I’m way up high
Joined: 09.15.2010

Nov 20 @ 11:44 AM ET
Guys. They're not trading him. It's ride and or die.
- AdamFrench


Anyone thinking otherwise is nothing more than a flat out lunatic
Zezel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: God Leafs Satan The Oneness, ON
Joined: 02.28.2011

Nov 20 @ 11:47 AM ET
Guys. They're not trading him. It's ride and or die.
- AdamFrench


Double this
Cush29
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Who Owzzzzz da' Chiefs?, ON
Joined: 12.22.2014

Nov 20 @ 11:49 AM ET
Guys. They're not trading him. It's ride and or die.
- AdamFrench


Triple it!

Adam French
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Isn't Cooley 5"11? You know who else is 5"11? Sydney Crosby. - Scabeh
Joined: 04.06.2011

Nov 20 @ 11:50 AM ET
Anyone thinking otherwise is nothing more than a flat out lunatic
- Dozzer

It would be pretty epic though. Pretty sure the Steve Dangle video on it would eclipse the David Ayres or Boston meltdown.
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Nov 20 @ 11:51 AM ET
That's the problem with making assertions 15 games into the season. Right now he's on pace for 130 points. That seems highly unlikely. Aardvark's head would explode. I tend to think of Willy as closer to Rantanen or Kaprizov - and you're right - they both gave up more RFA years than UFA years in those deals and the deals were shorter terms.

If he sustains a relative level of play and sits at 50 goals and 100 points at the end of the season, then Pastrnak is definitely the measuring stick they'll use.

Because he's streaky, he'll likely cool down and still post a career year - like 45 goals and 95 points - and sit in the 12.5% range, which is about $10.9m. The real danger here is that Nylander is 27 - so this is very likely the peak of his career - maybe next year will be as good, but small declination will start to appear after and by the time any 8 year deal is completed, 35 and 36 year old Nylander will be a shadow of this year's player.

- Monkeypunk


Agreed ...and Willie knows that. Getting that 8th year is worth something and lets him and the Leafs lower his AAV from the 7 yr market value. He wants to win so it works for both sides.
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Rented to Bruce Banner ;)
Joined: 08.30.2006

Nov 20 @ 11:52 AM ET
If I trade him, I have cap space, plus a 1st, good prospect and ++
- senstroll

plus the player coming back in the deal. So there will not be that much cap space.
If Nylander is traded, it will not be just for picks and prospects only me thinks.
that would be a big hole to fill that were the case
Adam French
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Isn't Cooley 5"11? You know who else is 5"11? Sydney Crosby. - Scabeh
Joined: 04.06.2011

Nov 20 @ 11:53 AM ET
Agreed ...and Willie knows that. Getting that 8th year is worth something and lets him and the Leafs lower his AAV from the 7 yr market value. He wants to win so it works for both sides.
- The Law

Or he wants a 3 year big money deal and signs a sunset dream 30 year old contract? Who knows!
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Rented to Bruce Banner ;)
Joined: 08.30.2006

Nov 20 @ 11:54 AM ET
Cap space is not a return, you get that with any departing player.
Nylander is a high end asset, you need to get some sort of assets back if he is leaving.

- Fakepartofme

sure it is.
it's an asset which can be used to sign a similar player.
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Rented to Bruce Banner ;)
Joined: 08.30.2006

Nov 20 @ 11:57 AM ET
Perhaps I'm reading CapFriendly wrong, but I don't think we have him on an NHL contract.

So if you really like him...

- Atomic Wedgie

he's on a pto with the Marlies.
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Rented to Bruce Banner ;)
Joined: 08.30.2006

Nov 20 @ 12:01 PM ET
Anyone thinking otherwise is nothing more than a flat out lunatic
- Dozzer

and there's alot of lunatic fringe out there
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Rented to Bruce Banner ;)
Joined: 08.30.2006

Nov 20 @ 12:02 PM ET
Triple it!
- Cush29

and now I'm stamping it!!!!

done deal.

he ain't moving till the draft if then
Adam French
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Isn't Cooley 5"11? You know who else is 5"11? Sydney Crosby. - Scabeh
Joined: 04.06.2011

Nov 20 @ 12:02 PM ET
We ALL know Willy will follow his lord and saviour Sidney Crosby and sign an 8 year 8.88mil contract to fulfill his jersey number destiny.

Double 88!!!!!!!
Scabeh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: The Slovakian Jagr, QC
Joined: 02.25.2007

Nov 20 @ 12:09 PM ET
Perhaps I'm reading CapFriendly wrong, but I don't think we have him on an NHL contract.

So if you really like him...

- Atomic Wedgie


I like his dad more but he can't play no mo.
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