Toronto Maple Leafs 2024-2025

13.25M - Auston Matthews
11.50M - William Nylander
11.00M - John Tavares (will drop down to Sept 2025)
10.90M - Mitch Marner (8 years @12M incoming Sept 2025)
7.500M - Morgan Rielly
----------
54.15M (4 Forwards & 1 D-man) / 87.7M = 61.745%

In other words, that leaves 38.3% for the remaining MINIMUM 15 positions (average of 2.24M).

Ottawa Senators 2024-2025

8.35 - Tim Stutzle
8.21 - Brady Tkachuk
8.05 - Jake Sanderson
8.00 - Thomas Chabot
7.95 - Josh Norris
6.50 - Claude Giroux (UFA at summer of 2025)
4.98 - Drake Batherson
4.60 - Artem Zub
4.60 - Jakob Chychrun (UFA at summer of 2025)
4.00 - Joonas Korpisalo
-------
65.23M (5 Top 6 Forwards, Top 4 D-men, Top goalie) / 87.7M = 74.38%

We can see from the construction of the team, the Sens need to get more out of their second wave (Chabot, Norris without question!). These two make up over 18% of the cap - almost 1/5th. They nee to significantly up their game - or one, if not both need to be traded. I think guys like Greig, Pinto, Joseph, and acquiring a D-man can help
- AlfieisKing

Interesting analysis and well done.
I would argue however you are not getting enough value out of your first wave of players. If you compare the top 3 forward production of Matthews/Marner/Nylander vs Stutzle/Giroux/Batherson it's not close at all ( 147 points vs 97) ( 69 goals vs31).
Winnipeg top 3 : 152 points
The question is the discrepancy a one year thing or not?

I don’t think anyone here other than yourself is disappointed with the DJ firing. Whether it’s linked to why they were losing or not..the team had a kazillion issues under him.

Keeping DJ because the players “liked him” is not a good enough reason why he should’ve kept his job.

It’s a results league where coaches are dispensable for obvious reasons.

Now, in terms of the “core”.

The “core” got their money. So it’s up to the “core” to turn this thing around, otherwise there has to be a different jolt.

In my eyes there are only about….4 untouchables on this roster: Brady, Timmy, Greig, Sanderson.

That’s it.

Staios needs to look at all his options for this season and the off. There has to be accountability for failure. These guys got their pay before even making the playoffs!

We rip the leafs for giving their guys big salaries before winning anything meaningful..at least they’ve made it to the playoffs every year since Matthews entered the league! And they’re doing it this year without their starting goalie!

The player who I feel the worst for is Giroux. I’d be giving him every opportunity to find a team he wants to go to and have a shot at the cup. It won’t happen here.
- Trilla

I always assumed Dorion would be replaced by new ownership and a new GM would have replaced DJ. I did not expect that new ownership would allow themselves to be stampeded into a crisis response resulting in the kind of chaos we now see.

I don't have any doubts that many of folks calling for the firing of DJ will now start demanding trades of key players (Chabot and others). Trading players from this position of weakness would be tragic.

When new ownership took over this team, the hopes and aspirations of the fans were sky high. New ownership removed Dorion and DJ.

So, if as you suggest all the right things have been done...why are the fans so disappointed and unhappy?

I like the new ownership and I think they will be fine. I am not happy with panic among some fans who now want to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Firing DJ was needed, and I think most people agree it was time to do it. No one is ‘happy’ about it. It means your season is basically a failure. This roster has many issues which SensFan25 posted but some worth reiterating:

- Too many left-handed shot d-men and not enough quality right-handed shot d-men.
- Young players playing below their ability.
- Poor goaltending.
- Poor special teams.
- Poor chemistry.

There are simple on paper adjustments that can be done roster wise. Move Chabot for a stay at home, imposing style right-handed d-man. Move Norris to alleviate salary and allow Pinto and Grieg to be your 2/3 centres and have cap room to add legitimate wingers. Trade Tarashenko and Kubalik for draft picks in 2024.

In reality, I think Chabot and Norris deals will be tricky as you are dealing from a point of weakness but for Chabot, he should be gone before his no-trade kicks in. Norris, you might have to take a bad contract back to make a deal work.

The new ownership and management have no connection to this core, and I’d be shocked if they were satisfied at what they have seen this year. Very few players and shown they are trying to impress the new boss at all. Staios will pick his coach by summer. Martin and Alfie are not the solution. They were distractions for nostalgic fans.

Remaining patient will not fix anything. Losing culture has set in for these young players and it’s clearly a struggle for this group to overcome. Adjusting the ingredients will help improve this roster. It will just come at a price where a big name or two will be moved out. It’s the nature of the business.

I don’t think anyone here other than yourself is disappointed with the DJ firing. Whether it’s linked to why they were losing or not..the team had a kazillion issues under him.

Keeping DJ because the players “liked him” is not a good enough reason why he should’ve kept his job.

It’s a results league where coaches are dispensable for obvious reasons.

Now, in terms of the “core”.

The “core” got their money. So it’s up to the “core” to turn this thing around, otherwise there has to be a different jolt.

In my eyes there are only about….4 untouchables on this roster: Brady, Timmy, Greig, Sanderson.

That’s it.

Staios needs to look at all his options for this season and the off. There has to be accountability for failure. These guys got their pay before even making the playoffs!

We rip the leafs for giving their guys big salaries before winning anything meaningful..at least they’ve made it to the playoffs every year since Matthews entered the league! And they’re doing it this year without their starting goalie!

The player who I feel the worst for is Giroux. I’d be giving him every opportunity to find a team he wants to go to and have a shot at the cup. It won’t happen here.
- Trilla

If think of there’s a move of substance to be made it’s Chychryn or Chabot. Everyone else important would leave a hole if they were moved.

The three high end left D experiment hasn’t been great. Granted, it seems like someone is always hurt, but nobody has really stepped up to play on their off side. And they aren’t going to roll three pairing equally.

Between those two the easier move is Chychryn. Chabot’s no trade kicks in the same day Chychryn’s extension can be negotiated. The last thing you want to do is move Chabot and give Chychryn all that bargaining power.

If you were to make a bigger move with one of these guys, the return would have to be a veteran RH stay at home D and picks. Or a kings ransom in picks and enough money to FA that player, although that seems more difficult.

Making a move, just to make a move and change things up doesn’t seem like how this management group operates, but if the do make a splash, I sure hope it fills a hole without making another.

I always assumed Dorion would be replaced by new ownership and a new GM would have replaced DJ. I did not expect that new ownership would allow themselves to be stampeded into a crisis response resulting in the kind of chaos we now see.

I don't have any doubts that many of folks calling for the firing of DJ will now start demanding trades of key players (Chabot and others). Trading players from this position of weakness would be tragic.

When new ownership took over this team, the hopes and aspirations of the fans were sky high. New ownership removed Dorion and DJ.

So, if as you suggest all the right things have been done...why are the fans so disappointed and unhappy?

I like the new ownership and I think they will be fine. I am not happy with panic among some fans who now want to throw the baby out with the bathwater.
- spatso

You keep saying that firing DJ is the reason this team is playing so poorly. Do you honestly believe this team would be playoff caliber right now if they kept him? How long should they have kept him?

I truly believe this team wouldn’t be significantly better right now with DJ, and I know this team wouldn’t be better next year and after with DJ. He’s a good guy, was given a rebuild job to do, and stayed a year longer than he should have; and became a hindrance to the players evolution.

A knee jerk reaction of blowing the team up is obviously not a good idea, but there are changes that could be made. Saying that nothing should change at all is putting your head in the sand. Blaming fans for the teams poor play is just silly.

Look. I understand that some fans are bitterly disappointed to discover that TJ was not the problem. Those who continue to insist that our problem was coaching are now living in an alternate universe of denial.

The first principle of effective change management is understanding and accepting the reality of the situation. Trades made out of desperation will only see us digging deeper into the hole we have created for ourselves.

It going to take really tough leadership to resist the calls for wholesale changes.

I am not opposed to changes. But it is hard to believe that any team would offer up something that works for the Sens in terms of where they are today.
- spatso

I'm sorry, but DJ Smith was absolutely part of the problem, and any suggestion otherwise is nonsensical... as is pretending that their recent performance has more to do with 10GP under Martin than with the years of ineffective coaching they were previously given. Fundamental coaching and development problems are a big part of their current situation, including effectively preparing these players for adversity in whatever form it might take... including NHL life without DJ Smith as coach. Helping them build confidence is important... but so is preparing them for criticism, disappointment, and failure. Their collective fragility is the direct result of this lack of preparation, and it needs remedial attention beyond just a 10-game stretch with a new coach.

At the end of the day, this team has an average but serviceable NHL goaltending tandem, playing behind a structurally imbalanced group of mostly finesse D-men, who are having to work far too hard at moving the puck up to a group of mostly offensive-minded forwards, who instead of being in the right position to support the transition are taking risks on low-probability breakouts to generate quick offense. Worse yet, under stress they all start trying to do too much, and the problems only compound. As a team, they need to start genuinely understanding that at certain points in the game the priority is just to keep things simple, help each other out, and efficiently get the puck out of the zone. Weather the storm... bend don't break... insert whatever saying you want, but have a collective understanding of when it's time to come together and defend as a unit vs. time for calculated risks on offense.

Asking whether DJ Smith was a good coach is like asking if David Legwand had a good NHL career: 618 career points is awesome, but he was always underwhelming, had a vanilla career for a 2nd overall pick! DJ was a good coach - you don't get to the NHL without being one, but he certainly wasn't elite or "best in class" and that's what the Sens should strive for each and every day.

They need an elite coach and to me that means someone with LOTS of experience. Jay Woodcroft is an interesting name, for me because of his time with Detroit when they won their cup and San Jose assisting Todd McLellan so well in the regular season. But a guy like Torts in Philly is exactly what this team needs. Someone to hold them accountable, to remind them of their skill and that their MUCH better than what they are. I think Craig Berube could be a great fit as well. Jacques Martin is a great teacher of the game but the affects will likely take place in a few weeks.

I will be very pissed if this team goes on a run and plays themselves into a mediocre pick. If that's the case then traded the F**ing pick. Dorion was an idiot for trading that 7th pick for DeBrincat - I said it then too. Now we have Giroux who will be gone next summer. They should trade him with some salary retained and get as big of a return as they can. Enough of this mismanagement of assets plain and simple

Asking whether DJ Smith was a good coach is like asking if David Legwand had a good NHL career: 618 career points is awesome, but he was always underwhelming, had a vanilla career for a 2nd overall pick! DJ was a good coach - you don't get to the NHL without being one, but he certainly wasn't elite or "best in class" and that's what the Sens should strive for each and every day.

They need an elite coach and to me that means someone with LOTS of experience. Jay Woodcroft is an interesting name, for me because of his time with Detroit when they won their cup and San Jose assisting Todd McLellan so well in the regular season. But a guy like Torts in Philly is exactly what this team needs. Someone to hold them accountable, to remind them of their skill and that their MUCH better than what they are. I think Craig Berube could be a great fit as well. Jacques Martin is a great teacher of the game but the affects will likely take place in a few weeks.

I will be very pissed if this team goes on a run and plays themselves into a mediocre pick. If that's the case then traded the F**ing pick. Dorion was an idiot for trading that 7th pick for DeBrincat - I said it then too. Now we have Giroux who will be gone next summer. They should trade him with some salary retained and get as big of a return as they can. Enough of this mismanagement of assets plain and simple
- AlfieisKing

the ONLY reason smith was a HC was because he was most likely the ONLY one to take such low pay as melnyk was offering, both smith and dorion made less than 1m/year.

ya trading 7th+ for a player without having a signature on a contract extension was idiotic. Giroux will get an extension a t a lower cap hit after his current deal ends, he wants to retire in OTT, close to family

If think of there’s a move of substance to be made it’s Chychryn or Chabot. Everyone else important would leave a hole if they were moved.

The three high end left D experiment hasn’t been great. Granted, it seems like someone is always hurt, but nobody has really stepped up to play on their off side. And they aren’t going to roll three pairing equally.

Between those two the easier move is Chychryn. Chabot’s no trade kicks in the same day Chychryn’s extension can be negotiated. The last thing you want to do is move Chabot and give Chychryn all that bargaining power.

If you were to make a bigger move with one of these guys, the return would have to be a veteran RH stay at home D and picks. Or a kings ransom in picks and enough money to FA that player, although that seems more difficult.

Making a move, just to make a move and change things up doesn’t seem like how this management group operates, but if the do make a splash, I sure hope it fills a hole without making another.
- CooCooKaChoo

yes trade away OTT best/2nd best LD and keep the 3rd best one, makes perfect sense in crazy world.

Chabot needs a fresh start on another team.

The "trade Chabot" crew .... tell me what team is going to take a Left d-man, who has been injury prone for the last few seasons (only played 10 games this year so far). And, he will be an 8 million salary cap hit for 4 more years, with an actual dollar hit of $10 million for the next 3 seasons.
On top of that, what team is willing to trade a top 4 right handed dman. This is a mythical monster.

So it is nice to talk about a trade like this, but name 1 team that will realistically trade a top RD without some huge sweeteners?

The only realistic way to get one without overpaying is to draft one and develop him.

Asking whether DJ Smith was a good coach is like asking if David Legwand had a good NHL career: 618 career points is awesome, but he was always underwhelming, had a vanilla career for a 2nd overall pick! DJ was a good coach - you don't get to the NHL without being one, but he certainly wasn't elite or "best in class" and that's what the Sens should strive for each and every day.

They need an elite coach and to me that means someone with LOTS of experience. Jay Woodcroft is an interesting name, for me because of his time with Detroit when they won their cup and San Jose assisting Todd McLellan so well in the regular season. But a guy like Torts in Philly is exactly what this team needs. Someone to hold them accountable, to remind them of their skill and that their MUCH better than what they are. I think Craig Berube could be a great fit as well. Jacques Martin is a great teacher of the game but the affects will likely take place in a few weeks.

I will be very pissed if this team goes on a run and plays themselves into a mediocre pick. If that's the case then traded the F**ing pick. Dorion was an idiot for trading that 7th pick for DeBrincat - I said it then too. Now we have Giroux who will be gone next summer. They should trade him with some salary retained and get as big of a return as they can. Enough of this mismanagement of assets plain and simple
- AlfieisKing

Players normally have close relationships with assistant coaches and not the head coach. The head coach runs the show, but the assistant coaches tend to be closer to the players and have more communication one on one. DJ Smith style of coaching and personality seems best suited for an assistant coach role. Nothing wrong with that. It just doesn’t always work being a head coach.

In terms of the 1st rounder that was sent to get Debrincat, it is what it is. The draft in 2022 was ok but generally deemed a little bit underwhelming. Korchinski who the hawks picked with the pick, seems like an ok prospect but far from being anything significant. This franchise already has too many left-sot d-men.

Can’t change the past and have to deal with the cards at hand. I am intrigued to see a new management team shake things up a little. It may or may not pan out, but it should be interesting going forth. As long as they don’t shove more nostalgia down our throats, moves going forward, should help this team move forward.

Interesting analysis and well done.
I would argue however you are not getting enough value out of your first wave of players. If you compare the top 3 forward production of Matthews/Marner/Nylander vs Stutzle/Giroux/Batherson it's not close at all ( 147 points vs 97) ( 69 goals vs31).
Winnipeg top 3 : 152 points
The question is the discrepancy a one year thing or not?
- Rang

Thanks man

I think Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk should be the top 2 scorers on this team. I think if they stay healthy, that is the most likely outcome by the end of the season.

With regards to offence, Matthews and Marner are in a separate tier right now. With Matthews, he has ALWAYS been at least a 40 goal scorer. He is already half way to 660 goals and he's only 26.5 years old. If he stays healthy, he will finish in the top 7-8 players of all time. With respect to Marner, another player that is offensively very rare. He has scored at least 94 points 3x now (COVID likely stopped 1x), and can very well do it this year.

Stutzle is up there though. He scored essentially 40 last year (if he played a full season) and 90 points. Marner didn't do that at 20 years old. With Matthews, again his goal scoring was always there, but it also took him a while before hitting that. I think Stutzle can be in that tier if he scores another 85+ point season demonstrating his consistency and maturity as an offensive star. One thing I don't think that gets talked about nearly enough is the play away from the puck for some of Toronto's players. That comes with time, experience, and a commitment to be elite each and every season.

Drake Batherson reminds me of Mark Stone but different career paths. With Batherson, he has the size of Stone but again needs to be more effective in his two-way game and start to take more of a leadership role. That's something I think Stone was wayy ahead at his age. Batherson is a useful piece and can play a significant role, but Tkachuk and Stutzle seem most likely to have the most 85+ point seasons in the next 5-6 years. I think the discrepancy is there with age and again there will always be a slight offensive advantage with a guy like Tkachuk. Also your comparing players (WIN, TOR) at the top of their game right now AND that are older. I think compare a 24 year old Stutzle with a 24 year old Marner and you will get less discrepancy.

The "trade Chabot" crew .... tell me what team is going to take a Left d-man, who has been injury prone for the last few seasons (only played 10 games this year so far). And, he will be an 8 million salary cap hit for 4 more years, with an actual dollar hit of $10 million for the next 3 seasons.
On top of that, what team is willing to trade a top 4 right handed dman. This is a mythical monster.

So it is nice to talk about a trade like this, but name 1 team that will realistically trade a top RD without some huge sweeteners?

The only realistic way to get one without overpaying is to draft one and develop him.
- OttawaB

He’s a 26yr old top pairing dman.

Who logs a billion minutes, runs a power play and is on a bargain of a deal, especially with the cap set to rise.

Oh and he has team control.

His biggest concern, as you’ve pointed out is he can’t stay healthy…but his age helps with that.

Jack Hughes has had 1 heathy season and can’t stay off the IR..I don’t think health changes his value.

I also think the market for Chabot would be huge. I don’t know if a RD comes our way (unless it’s a prospect)…but there are other areas of focus the team can improve on.

Thanks man

I think Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk should be the top 2 scorers on this team. I think if they stay healthy, that is the most likely outcome by the end of the season.

With regards to offence, Matthews and Marner are in a separate tier right now. With Matthews, he has ALWAYS been at least a 40 goal scorer. He is already half way to 660 goals and he's only 26.5 years old. If he stays healthy, he will finish in the top 7-8 players of all time. With respect to Marner, another player that is offensively very rare. He has scored at least 94 points 3x now (COVID likely stopped 1x), and can very well do it this year.

Stutzle is up there though. He scored essentially 40 last year (if he played a full season) and 90 points. Marner didn't do that at 20 years old. With Matthews, again his goal scoring was always there, but it also took him a while before hitting that. I think Stutzle can be in that tier if he scores another 85+ point season demonstrating his consistency and maturity as an offensive star. One thing I don't think that gets talked about nearly enough is the play away from the puck for some of Toronto's players. That comes with time, experience, and a commitment to be elite each and every season.

Drake Batherson reminds me of Mark Stone but different career paths. With Batherson, he has the size of Stone but again needs to be more effective in his two-way game and start to take more of a leadership role. That's something I think Stone was wayy ahead at his age. Batherson is a useful piece and can play a significant role, but Tkachuk and Stutzle seem most likely to have the most 85+ point seasons in the next 5-6 years. I think the discrepancy is there with age and again there will always be a slight offensive advantage with a guy like Tkachuk. Also your comparing players (WIN, TOR) at the top of their game right now AND that are older. I think compare a 24 year old Stutzle with a 24 year old Marner and you will get less discrepancy.
- AlfieisKing

Fair enough on the age comments, I hope the Sens turn it around. Ottawa deserves to have a winning team and another Battle of Ontario playoff series. I do know this, Tkachuk is not someone I would want to face in the playoffs. I think he would be very effective in that environment with his size and mean streak.

Holy s**t, trade chabot now !!!!! I would terminate his contract right now if I could. He's an offensive d-man that should be no more than 5.75M per year

It might be nice if one of our goalies can make a save. 10 shots, 3 goals.

And, as a side note it might be nice if a player can actually hit the goal when they get a shot.

ugly!

Again, zero drive in Ottawa's game.

Team playing like it not only has given up on the game but also the season. No push back. Getting run over by Buffalo. Sad to see. Bad, ugly road trip. Need the all star break to happen now. Need the season to be over. Fresh start with some new faces.

Team playing like it not only has given up on the game but also the season. No push back. Getting run over by Buffalo. Sad to see. Bad, ugly road trip. Need the all star break to happen now. Need the season to be over. Fresh start with some new faces.
- GrimmdaGoalie

Sharks in Ottawa on Saturday. Which means classic let down game when you think they should win.

Power play is really disorganized.

Greig making the best of his opportunity. Love his motor all game

time to go to bed

Keep sinking

Greig making the best of his opportunity. Love his motor all game
- Trilla