York Newbury: Canucks lose first game of the road trip to the Blues

Also, some interesting numbers from a Patrick Johnston article at the Province to add fuel to the fire:

As many Canucks fans know by now, their favourite team is scoring at far outside the modern norm. They’ve scored on 12.3 per cent of the five-on-five shots to date in the 2023-24 NHL season.

That is 2.5 percentage points or so above what you would reasonably expect from a league-leading offence. In 2022-23 for instance, the Boston Bruins scored on “just” 9.7 per cent of their five-on-five shots.

That was actually second behind the Seattle Kraken, who scored on more than 10 per cent of their shots, a wild outlier in itself. Coming into this season, only eight teams since the NHL first started tracking five-on-five shots have scored on more than 10 per cent of their attempts.

No team has breached 11 per cent.

This is a high-scoring season overall. The Canucks are one of five teams who are above 10 per cent — though it should be noted the second-placed Detroit Red Wings have scored on 10.7 per cent of their five-on-five shots, still well back of the Canucks.

As well:

Here’s a wild stat: There are just a handful of teams over the past two decades that have had a combined shooting percentage and save percentage as outlandish as the Canucks’ currently is as they approached 40 games played on the season.

It is well-understood that when teams’ combined percentages, known as PDO, move away from 1000, whether positively or negatively, those figures will snap back toward the mean.

Good teams are able to keep themselves slightly above 1000, bad teams will bob along just below, but no one maintains a record like the Canucks currently do: The Canucks’ PDO currently sits at 1050, the highest combined save percentage and shooting percentage of any NHL team in 15 years after 38 games.

There are five teams that are close, and some of them were really quite good: The 1995-96 Pittsburgh Penguins, the 2005-06 Ottawa Senators, the 2008-09 and 2011-12 Boston Bruins, and the 2016-17 Columbus Blue Jackets.

...

This isn’t to say the Canucks will crash and burn, but they will hit some bumps in the road. Their current success will surely wobble at some point.

PDO is based off of a team's current shooting percentage plus their save percentage, so not imaginary numbers. Right now, the Canucks are 1st out of roughly 465 teams in that 15 year PDO window. Ride that wave and enjoy it baby

Also, from Wheeler at the Athletic:

Jonathan Lekkerimaki makes his MVP case

There might not be a player in this year’s tournament who has had as many looks or scoring chances as Jonathan Lekkerimaki has, and he finished two more of them in the third period on Thursday to send Sweden to the gold medal game. He now has a team-high six goals, nine points (tied with Sabres prospect and linemate Noah Ostlund) and 30 shots on goal. He had nine shots in the semifinal and has made a strong case for my tournament All-Star Team and MVP ballot.

Lekkerimaki is as dangerous as any player in this year’s tournament on the power play, but it has been the consistency of his individual creation at five-on-five that has impressed me. He’s sticking with more plays, finding his way through gaps in coverage, holding onto more pucks and moving off the puck, all of which have been criticisms of his game in the past. We know he can crank it on the power play, but consistency at evens will help him reach his NHL ceiling as a top-six scorer. Canucks general manager Patrik Allvin has been in Gothenburg for this tournament and has to like what he has seen from his 2022 first-round pick. — Scott Wheeler

Another great blog TY Yorkie

On Kuz I understand RT’s approach with him but it raises questions on others other than JTM’s cool down benching or Dak being asked to up his game more consistently. I don’t want to name he who shall but be named lol
5/10m far below 14m.

Whipping boy or the doghouse some players earn or deserve. I don’t agree with special treatment for some aka has to be good for one good for all. A 39 goal season is no mirage therefore it’s on coaches & teammates to pick him up to help him be a valuable top 6 performer.

On Kuz I understand RT’s approach with him but it raises questions on others other than JTM’s cool down benching or Dak being asked to up his game more consistently. I don’t want to name he who shall but be named lol
5/10m far below 14m.

Whipping boy or the doghouse some players earn or deserve. I don’t agree with special treatment for some aka has to be good for one good for all. A 39 goal season is no mirage therefore it’s on coaches & teammates to pick him up to help him be a valuable top 6 performer.
- Nighthawk

Tocc just isn't getting along with Kuz, and since he's not scoring his defensive game (and lack thereof) is holding him back. However it's not like other players haven't had their warts. Would rather have Kuz beside Petey than Lafferty most of the time.

Before Thursday’s game, he wasn’t revealing his cards about what he was going to do with his lineup — he chose to scratch Kuzmenko in the end, dressing rookie Linus Karlsson instead — but he keyed in on things he didn’t like from Tuesday’s 6-3 win over the Ottawa Senators.

Even as the Canucks dominated the struggling Senators, he felt his team had gotten away from their hard forechecking game.

“When you don’t forecheck, and you’re standing around, they start blowing the zone and they start taking over the game. If you’re late, then you gotta get out and make sure you’re above people,” he said.

“I just need some more guys that forecheck a little harder and come out with loose pucks. That’s when we’re at our best. There’s some jobs open for that sometimes. We need a consistent effort of forechecking right now.”

He never mentioned Kuzmenko, but the message was obvious.

And with no independent reporters in St. Louis for this game, only a team reporter and a fill-in host from Sportsnet, Tocchet wasn’t queried post-game about this latest Kuzmenko scratch. We are only left to extrapolate from what’s been said before.

From Patrick Johnston

Tocc just isn't getting along with Kuz, and since he's not scoring his defensive game (and lack thereof) is holding him back. However it's not like other players haven't had their warts. Would rather have Kuz beside Petey than Lafferty most of the time.



From Patrick Johnston
- NewYorkNuck

Not sure that I would agree with the comment, the Canucks dominated the Senators, as they got badly outplayed for 2 periods, they had several things go right for them on several goals and yes, Ottawa has been a terrible team.
It"s too bad that Drance wasn't around to ask the tough questions

Just read this comment on another site

If you want a preview of playoff hockey you just saw it. Defensive, low scoring. Tight. Fans should have realized how clueless when Canucks face a heavy team even a weak one like Bules (avg 200 lbs), they didn't even play physically hard on us but can make us lack physicality and overall weak puck retrieval. IMO to win the playoff series we need a heavy 2-way 2C, a heavy 4C, and probably another 3D. Skinny Petey is once again playing like dog poop, a non-factors in these against heavy teams, he didn't even dare to try his newest tool-reverse hit, because he knew if he does it he probably ends up being injured

Some valid points.

Just read this comment on another site

If you want a preview of playoff hockey you just saw it. Defensive, low scoring. Tight. Fans should have realized how clueless when Canucks face a heavy team even a weak one like Bules (avg 200 lbs), they didn't even play physically hard on us but can make us lack physicality and overall weak puck retrieval. IMO to win the playoff series we need a heavy 2-way 2C, a heavy 4C, and probably another 3D. Skinny Petey is once again playing like dog poop, a non-factors in these against heavy teams, he didn't even dare to try his newest tool-reverse hit, because he knew if he does it he probably ends up being injured

Some valid points.
- Reubenkincade

Kuzmenko + for Tom Wilson

Also, some interesting numbers from a Patrick Johnston article at the Province to add fuel to the fire:



As well:



PDO is based off of a team's current shooting percentage plus their save percentage, so not imaginary numbers. Right now, the Canucks are 1st out of roughly 465 teams in that 15 year PDO window. Ride that wave and enjoy it baby
- NewYorkNuck

Here is a list of PDO leaders, it shows that 2 pretty bad teams, CBJ and Montreal, are 8th and 9th, and Ottawa at 12th, while the Rangers, the top team, are in 22nd, talk about irrelevant stats.

Also, in the previous season, the top team in the regular season, the Bruins, were 21st in PDO at 99, how can this be possible?

https://www.statspros.com/nhl-team-pdo-leaders/

Kuzmenko + for Tom Wilson
- K-man25

Adding a player like Wilson would be nice, just not sure the team should be adding a player that will be under contract until the age of 37.

I stand by my comment from a few days ago, Jesse Pulkinen would be a nice addition to the prospect pool.

Thanks Yorkie!
They play the Devils on Saturday not Sunday. I guess you were still busy going over the stats.

Here is a list of PDO leaders, it shows that 2 pretty bad teams, CBJ and Montreal, are 8th and 9th, and Ottawa at 12th, while the Rangers, the top team, are in 22nd, talk about irrelevant stats.

Also, in the previous season, the top team in the regular season, the Bruins, were 21st in PDO at 99, how can this be possible?

https://www.statspros.com/nhl-team-pdo-leaders/
- Reubenkincade

All those teams you listed were +/- 1 off 100. The data from the last little while suggest the majority of teams trend towards that. The Canucks are having an outlier season at 105 thus far. That difference is a much bigger jump.

I mean, PDO doesn't equate to how great or bad a team is, more so how fortunate a team is. Maybe you're just misunderstanding what it is (or trying not to comprehend).

Thanks Yorkie!
They play the Devils on Saturday not Sunday. I guess you were still busy going over the stats.
- Marwood

Hmm so they do. It's my time difference, just glanced at the schedule and it said Sunday... I thought maybe it was a daytime game, but it's 1 AM Sunday for me I guess the numbers don't lie.

Hmm so they do. It's my time difference, just glanced at the schedule and it said Sunday... I thought maybe it was a daytime game, but it's 1 AM Sunday for me I guess the numbers don't lie.
- NewYorkNuck

Numbers don't always paint the picture you want to present, true.

Thank NY

Just read this comment on another site

If you want a preview of playoff hockey you just saw it. Defensive, low scoring. Tight. Fans should have realized how clueless when Canucks face a heavy team even a weak one like Bules (avg 200 lbs), they didn't even play physically hard on us but can make us lack physicality and overall weak puck retrieval. IMO to win the playoff series we need a heavy 2-way 2C, a heavy 4C, and probably another 3D. Skinny Petey is once again playing like dog poop, a non-factors in these against heavy teams, he didn't even dare to try his newest tool-reverse hit, because he knew if he does it he probably ends up being injured

Some valid points.
- Reubenkincade

I have been watching playoff hockey for probably 25 years straight now and if that was considered playoff hockey by either team, this year will be my last.

Plus that is clearly coming from someone who doesn't watch the Canucks play very often.

All those teams you listed were +/- 1 off 100. The data from the last little while suggest the majority of teams trend towards that. The Canucks are having an outlier season at 105 thus far. That difference is a much bigger jump.

I mean, PDO doesn't equate to how great or bad a team is, more so how fortunate a team is. Maybe you're just misunderstanding what it is (or trying not to comprehend).
- NewYorkNuck

I was actually referring to what was posted in that article you quoted, in which it says good teams hover around 100 and bad teams just below. I think that line of thinking is pretty flawed, as proven by the link I provided.

I stand by my comment from a few days ago, Jesse Pulkinen would be a nice addition to the prospect pool.
- Reubenkincade

You think someone will draft him this year?

I liked Emil Pieniniemi but I see that Pittsburgh drafted him last year in the 3rd and have signed him already.

You think someone will draft him this year?

I liked Emil Pieniniemi but I see that Pittsburgh drafted him last year in the 3rd and have signed him already.
- manvanfan

I think he will get drafted. Emil has been decent enough, but haven't paid much attention to him, knowing he is already drafted.

https://eprinkside.com/20...scoring-junior-defenceman

I was actually referring to what was posted in that article you quoted, in which it says good teams hover around 100 and bad teams just below. I think that line of thinking is pretty flawed, as proven by the link I provided.
- Reubenkincade

Ya I think it aim to give numbers "puck luck" more than any skill or judgement on how a team is. IMO he got that aspect wrong.

Ya I think it aim to give numbers "puck luck" more than any skill or judgement on how a team is. IMO he got that aspect wrong.
- NewYorkNuck

Agreed

All those teams you listed were +/- 1 off 100. The data from the last little while suggest the majority of teams trend towards that. The Canucks are having an outlier season at 105 thus far. That difference is a much bigger jump.

I mean, PDO doesn't equate to how great or bad a team is, more so how fortunate a team is. Maybe you're just misunderstanding what it is (or trying not to comprehend).
- NewYorkNuck

PDO is supposed to measure luck but it's definitely not perfect. The Canucks have above-average goaltending which would mean to have an average PDO they would need below-average shooting % right? They're currently high-rolling on both a little but really I would think with the goalies they have their PDO should always be on the upper end of the league