Still riding on the laurels of the early part of the season. PP has been sucking for a while now...looked much better last night for sure but recently it's been bad, not #2 good.

Don't lie, you blue goo female dog. You know I'm right.
- underhill14

Ebb and flow of a season. Overall it's been among the best.

It was 5th overall last year, so it's just actually been consistently excellent over time.

It was 5th overall last year, so it's just actually been consistently excellent over time.
- Zezel

With hockey fans it’s always recency bias. Remember the flack Willy took for a few ordinary games after he signed. Vancouver fans were doing the same thing with Petterson.
But now everyone agrees that Willy is our best player this year.

With hockey fans it’s always recency bias. Remember the flack Willy took for a few ordinary games after he signed. Vancouver fans were doing the same thing with Petterson.
But now everyone agrees that Willy is our best player this year.
- shack67

- Whipper

Well everyone who doesn't have a head full of mashed turnips.

With hockey fans it’s always recency bias. Remember the flack Willy took for a few ordinary games after he signed. Vancouver fans were doing the same thing with Petterson.
But now everyone agrees that Willy is our best player this year.
- shack67

Yeah, Matthews is only high up on the goals list because he scored earlier this year.

There are a number of factors that are interesting - the playoffs are a completely different animal because the NHL is the only sport where, despite objections to the contrary from the league, they use a different rulebook than the one from the regular season. It is not only far more violent, it is hyped up to be and expected to be. Charging becomes normal. Hard, dangerous hits 2-3 seconds after the puck is gone occur with frequency. Holding, hooking and tripping are unenforced - and all you get is the question of when will the official decide that _now_ is a time to shift momentum by calling a penalty - because you don't know. It's like a game of moshpit musical chairs - everyone is running around violently hitting each other but when the music stops, you better find a goddamned chair.

In the past several years the teams that have advanced to the Cup Finals have been mediocre in most possession statistics, including shots for and shots surrendered. Typically they all have positive HD metrics, and where they have excelled is in their cumulative HD results - like Shooting % and Save percentage. This is, like every playoff stat, not a hard and fast rule - Colorado had the worst save percentage of any team past the 1st round and won the cup in 2022. Tampa and Vegas had the best HD shooting and goaltending in their recent cup wins of teams advancing past the first round.

The problem with the Toronto Maple Leafs this season is that everything they do is just mediocre. Including HD chance generation, HD results, and HD defense. Maybe that can change in the playoffs, as you hope, but I would like to at least see something trending towards that in the last 15 games instead of unspirited efforts like last night's.
- Monkeypunk

This post is so 100% spot on (I'll take your word on the last 2 paragraphs since your the stats guy), but regarding the first paragraph I can't agree more - the way the game changes (including the officiating suddenly becoming so different from regular season) just makes it even tougher to be a GM IMO.

Most major sports don't face this challenge - think Football, and Baseball - rules are rules and penalties are penalties but hockey.....well you know.

So GM's have to try and figure out how to build a team to success in BOTH environments and that's hard. Regular season success will continue to be overrated as long as there is so much of a change come playoffs.

On a positive note - many here remember the 1992/1993 Leafs team as arguably the best playoff Leafs team of their lifetimes. I was curious so I looked up where they finished in the regular season that year....

Turns out the Leafs finished 3rd in their division with 99 points and 4th in their conference that year in the regular season.

The Habs and the Kings who appeared in the finals both finished 3rd in their respective divisions in the regular season.

So maybe all hope is not lost and the strategy of just making the playoffs in a decent spot (vs barely squeaking in) and not caring too too much about final regular season standings is not such a bad thing after all?

Side note - Chicago and Detroit were wagon's in that regular season in the Norris but so were many other 100+ point teams but none as much as the Pens at 119 points to end the year.

There were some upsets for sure too notably:

https://en.wikipedia.org/...1993_Stanley_Cup_playoffs

Boston with 109 points got swept by Buffalo (86 points) 4 straight in the 1st round
Chicago with 106 points also got swept in 4 to 85 point St. Louis in 1st round

119 point Pittsburgh lost in the 2nd round to the 87 point Islanders

And 88 point LA Kings made it all the way to the finals losing to....well I won't even type it! lol

Go Leafs Go

Which team would be better?



Team: Plays for a Canadian team.

McDavid Matthews Marner
Draisaitl Pettersson Hyman
Connor Scheifele Miller
B.Tkachuk Kadri Suzuki
Ehlers

Q.Hughes Chabot
Rielly Morrissey
Bouchard Chychrun
Matheson

Hellebuyck
Demko


Team: Plays for a US team.

Pastrnak MacKinnon Kucherov
M.Tkachuk Crosby Rantanen
Panarin Point Eichel
Kaprizov J.Hughes Thompson
Robertson

Dahlin Makar
Peitrangelo Josi
Hedman Heiskenen
Dobson

Vasilevskiy
Shesterkin

Well everyone who doesn't have a head full of mashed turnips.
- BINGO!

Willy is -25 vs Matthews and Marner


Yeah he’s “good” at padding his stats, but not playing 200ft hockey.

With hockey fans it’s always recency bias. Remember the flack Willy took for a few ordinary games after he signed. Vancouver fans were doing the same thing with Petterson.
But now everyone agrees that Willy is our best player this year.
- shack67

Yeah, Matthews is only high up on the goals list because he scored earlier this year.
- Zezel

Well in a sport that is structured around elimination from getting to play in the playoffs and then again from the playoffs, recency bias is kinda the point of the sport, no?

How good is a team or its players playing NOW, not October.

I mean, if Matthews scores 50 goals in the first 4 games of the season and after another 1st round exit from the playoffs ends the season with 54 goals total, he kinda sucked in the playoffs and the last 78 games of the season, right?!?!!? But yaaaaahhhh Matthews scores over 50 again.

FFS you guys and your strawman arguments against fans that just kinda want to win a Cup after 56 years especially with a team that has some of the highest paid players in the league.

We have (frank)ing nicknames for their piss poor play and lack of consistency, that's so Leafy, Queefs are going to Queef...etc.

Some of us just want that poop to stop and gets some playoff wins, not personal regular season stats.

Which team would be better?



Team: Plays for a Canadian team.

McDavid Matthews Marner
Draisaitl Pettersson Hyman
Connor Scheifele Miller
RNH Kadri Suzuki
Ehlers

Q.Hughes Chabot
Rielly Morrissey
Bouchard Chychrun
Matheson

Hellebuyck
Demko


Team: Plays for a US team.

Pastrnak MacKinnon Kucherov
M.Tkachuk Crosby Rantanen
Panarin Point Eichel
Kaprizov J.Hughes Thompson
Robertson

Dahlin Makar
Peitrangelo Josi
Hedman Heiskenen
Dobson

Vasilevskiy
Shesterkin
- Arctic_AARDVARK

Eichel, Hughes and Tage don't belong here.

Eichel, Hughes and Tage don't belong here.
- BINGO!

And you don’t belong in this thread. 🤷‍♂️


However, no. I will not remove them so you can add whichever Canes player you think is better.

Willy is -25 vs Matthews and Marner


Yeah he’s “good” at padding his stats, but not playing 200ft hockey.
- Arctic_AARDVARK

okay? Jaccob Slavin has a better +/- in his career than Connor McDavid. +/- doesn't mean poop.

You're right that I wouldn't consider Nylander to be the Leafs best player by any stretch, though.

Well in a sport that is structured around elimination from getting to play in the playoffs and then again from the playoffs, recency bias is kinda the point of the sport, no?

How good is a team or its players playing NOW, not October.

I mean, if Matthews scores 50 goals in the first 4 games of the season and after another 1st round exit from the playoffs ends the season with 54 goals total, he kinda sucked in the playoffs and the last 78 games of the season, right?!?!!? But yaaaaahhhh Matthews scores over 50 again.

FFS you guys and your strawman arguments against fans that just kinda want to win a Cup after 56 years especially with a team that has some of the highest paid players in the league.

We have (frank)ing nicknames for their piss poor play and lack of consistency, that's so Leafy, Queefs are going to Queef...etc.

Some of us just want that poop to stop and gets some playoff wins, not personal regular season stats.


- underhill14

The playoffs haven't even started yet mang.

And you don’t belong in this thread. 🤷‍♂️


However, no. I will not remove them so you can add whichever Canes player you think is better.
- Arctic_AARDVARK

Do you wanna do last 5 years, 3 years or just this year?

okay? Jaccob Slavin has a better +/- in his career than Connor McDavid. +/- doesn't mean poop.

You're right that I wouldn't consider Nylander to be the Leafs best player by any stretch, though.
- BINGO!

Slavin is widely considered the best shutdown Dman in the league.

As a winger you’re judged mostly by points in the media. But wingers that can play both sides of the puck are much more valuable.

Do you wanna do last 5 years, 3 years or just this year?
- BINGO!

This year.

Fire away!

The playoffs haven't even started yet mang.
- Zezel

No poop Sherlock.

Point is, sports is all about recency bias since elimination from "playoffs" and in "playoffs" is an part of the game.

However, recency bias isn't a thing when it comes to personal stats.

So keep on keeping on my blue goo buddy!

This year.

Fire away!
- Arctic_AARDVARK

Okay. We'll use the numbers you like.
Jack Hughes: 21G, 44A, 65 points in 53 Games. -15. 31st in points
Jack Eichel: 21G, 31A, 52 points in 49 Games. +2. 80th in points
Tage Thompson: 21G, 21A, 42 points in 59 Games. -8. 129th in points

Sebastian Aho: 27G, 48A, 75 points in 66 Games. +26. Tied for 17th in points (With Makar and Point)

No poop Sherlock.

Point is, sports is all about recency bias since elimination from "playoffs" and in "playoffs" is an part of the game.

However, recency bias isn't a thing when it comes to personal stats.

So keep on keeping on my blue goo buddy!
- underhill14

Okay, whatever your point is, you win.

Okay. We'll use the numbers you like.
Jack Hughes: 21G, 44A, 65 points in 53 Games. -15. 31st in points
Jack Eichel: 21G, 31A, 52 points in 49 Games. +2. 80th in points
Tage Thompson: 21G, 21A, 42 points in 59 Games. -8. 129th in points

Sebastian Aho: 27G, 48A, 75 points in 66 Games. +26. Tied for 17th in points (With Makar and Point)
- BINGO!

I didn’t really look at this years stats, just went off which players are widely considered the best.

Lots of good players were left off.. Barzal, Marchand, Bedard, Karlsson, Stone, Thomas, Guentzel, Malkin, Stamkos etc… it’s not an exact science.

I didn’t really look at this years stats, just went off which players are widely considered the best.

Lots of good players were left off.. Barzal, Marchand, Bedard, Karlsson, Stone, Thomas, Guentzel, Malkin, Stamkos etc… it’s not an exact science.
- Arctic_AARDVARK

Right but a lot of that is chalked up to exposure too, right?

Let's do Point and Aho.

Over the past 5 years:

They have both averaged 1.01 points per game
They both have 105 points on the powerplay
They have averaged exactly the same time on ice per game (19:22)
They have almost identical goal totals at even strength (108 and 109, respectively)

But Aho is +78 in that time with 12 short handed goals, whereas Point is +14 and doesn't kill penalties at all.

Point is perceived to be the better player because he's been talked about more and caught fire in the goal scoring department the past year and a half, but in the big picture Aho has had a very slight edge.

Ebb and flow of a season. Overall it's been among the best.
- Zezel

Overall, sure. It's been pretty ebby and flowy though - like compared to last season:


2023-24

PP
October 5th (31.3%)
November 20th (18.2%)
December 5th (27.8%)
January 17th (21.6%)
February 1st (50%)
March 30th (8%)

PK
October 26th (74.2%)
November 12th (82.5%)
December 25th (75%)
January 18th (76.7%)
February 16th (78.6%)
March 26th (73.1%)


2022-23

PP
October 10th (24.3%)
November 14th (23.8%)
December 8th (26.3%)
January 7th (24.4%)
February 3rd (30%)
March 5th (28.1%)

PK
October 25th (75.7%)
November 7th (82.5%)
December 13th (78.4%)
January 19th (80%)
February 1st (100%)
March 10th (82.9%)


Personally I want to see the power play operate at about 22% and the PK operate over 80%. I think that last year it typically averaged over that month-over-month - and ended up being 81.9% and was 12th. The PP was 2nd in the league at 26% - but was largely consistent month over month last year.

This year the PK has been poor most of the year - and does sit at 24th @ 77%. While the power play is 5th at 26.2%, like you said, it worries me because of it's inconsistency month-over-month.

That said, I think for me the whole team worries me because of their inconsistency.

Right but a lot of that is chalked up to exposure too, right?

Let's do Point and Aho.

Over the past 5 years:

They have both averaged 1.01 points per game
They both have 105 points on the powerplay
They have averaged exactly the same time on ice per game (19:22)
They have almost identical goal totals at even strength (108 and 109, respectively)

But Aho is +78 in that time with 12 short handed goals, whereas Point is +14 and doesn't kill penalties at all.

Point is perceived to be the better player because he's been talked about more and caught fire in the goal scoring department the past year and a half, but in the big picture Aho has had a very slight edge.
- BINGO!

Ok, whatever your point is, you win.



Ya you’re probably right. But Point has a cup.

Ok, whatever your point is, you win.



Ya you’re probably right. But Point has a cup.
- Arctic_AARDVARK

Craig Adams has two.

Craig Adams (frank)ing sucks.